cold beer

2018 Won’t Be 2012

2012 Bama Line

Some Aggies are hoping Jimbo’s first year will be like Kevin Sumlin’s first year where we catch everyone by surprise. The main reason Jimbo won’t replicate Sumlin’s first season in the record department is because of our offense. Our offense simply won’t supply the firepower our 2012 offense did for a “breakthrough” first year for Jimbo. Let’s breakdown the challenges facing the Aggie offense in 2018 compared to 2012:

Quarterback – Saying there’s no Johnny Manziel on this roster is an understatement. There’s not a quarterback on this roster that’s even close to what Johnny brought to the table in 2012. Johnny’s ability to run along with his pocket awareness made so much happen. He’s a once in a lifetime player. Starkel and Mond aren’t horrible QBs but they’re not outstanding QBs either. They both have skill sets that are one dimensional for the most part. Starkel is a pure pocket guy but doesn’t possess a cannon for an arm. He’s what one would call a game manager. That’s not a bad thing but Nick Starkel is not going to put a team on his shoulders and win a game we shouldn’t. His job is to simply move the team up and down the field as much as possible without turning the ball over. We won’t be lighting up any defense under Starkel.

Mond could still develop into a dual threat quarterback but nothing I saw in his first season leads me to believe that. I know he was a true freshman but he’s not as quick as I hoped he’d be. He certainly didn’t appear to have the burst of Manziel or Kyler Murray. I think Trevor Knight was a better runner than Mond is. I was shocked when Mond got walked down in the Arkansas game last year. He had a wide-open sideline and a defender caught him from behind. Guys with true elite speed don’t have that happen to them. Think of all the times Trevor Knight ran away from people in the open field. I haven’t seen that from Mond. In addition, Mond is erratic as a passer. I think he’ll improve under Jimbo but I’m not sure it’ll be enough for this team to take a major step forward from last season.

Step 1 one of eliminating hopes for a 2012 repeat in 2018 is the quarterback position.

Wide Receiver:

People forget how amazing the 2012 receiving corps was. Everyone points to Mike Evans but there was quite a bit more in 2012 than most people realize. That team also had Ryan Swope, Uzoma Nwachukwu, and Malcome Kennedy. It’s sad to think about what happened with him but Thomas Johnson had a couple decent games including Alabama. That was a REALLY good receiving corps.

For 2018 there’s no telling what we have. Outside of Christian Kirk last season nobody really produced game in and game out. Jhamon Ausbon appears to be the best receiver we have and we’re not sure how good he is. He’s certainly no Mike Evans or even Josh Reynolds/Ryan Swope level at this point. Other than Ausbon I’m not sure what else to expect from anyone. Certainly Jalen Preston has a lot of promise but he’ll still be a true freshman in the SEC. I think he could be a complete stud by the time he leaves A&M but in 2018 he won’t be a dominate receiver. 2012 had a complete stud in Mike Evans, a great receiver in Ryan Swope, and then two really solid guys in Nwachukwu and Kennedy. I’m not sure the 2018 will have one great receiver unless Ausbon takes a major step forward. He has the talent but it remains to be seen if he actually does it. There is some other receiving talent on the roster but it must take some major strides and I’m not sure if it’s quite there yet.

Offensive Line:

This is where the 2012 and 2018 teams will have the biggest difference. Even bigger than quarterback. Everyone talks about Manziel, Evans, and even Swope from 2012 but most people forget about that offensive line. That offensive line was one of the greatest college offensive lines ever assembled. Every starter on that offensive line started in the NFL at one point. Four guys were taken in the first round but all five guys not only made an NFL roster but actually started an NFL game at one point in their career. I don’t know how many collegiate lines can lay claim to that. It can’t be many. The 2012 offensive line was one for the ages. Maybe more than Johnny Manziel if you want to truly dissect it. It’ll be easier to get a game changing quarterback than it will be to get five guys that will start together in college and then each start in the NFL. It doesn’t happen often.

As for the 2018 Aggie offensive line nobody knows what to make of it. The only guaranteed starter is Erik McCoy and right now it’s not certain where he starts. He’ll either be center or guard simply because the staff must figure out the four best guys to go with him and what positions they play. It’s great McCoy is that good and has the versatility but it’s not good the staff is waiting to see where he’ll plug best along the line because the other four guys are such unknowns.

It looked like someone was taking Koda Martin’s job even if he came back fully healthy. I think that’s partially why he transfered. We’ll be starting someone at left tackle with little experience and have no depth at the position. That’s not a good thing for a very important position on the offensive line. We just don’t have any talent or depth on the offensive line outside of Erik McCoy. I think McCoy might be the only guy that would be in the two deep at Bama or start for schools like Auburn and LSU. Everybody else would just be fighting for a roster spots on the better teams in the conference. We have some solid true freshman coming in but I always tell people the SEC is not a league that favors true freshman. Especially at offensive line.

I know everybody loves Jim Turner and I do as well but I’ve taken a step back from him over the last two seasons. I think he has a LOT to prove over the next two seasons. Some people like to blame Sumlin and Mazzone for the shortcomings of the line but he’s still the OLine coach. He holds a lot of responsibility for the overall results. He signs off on the recruits and coaches them individual technique, fight, and teamwork. We’ve missed a lot of assignments or calls over the last two seasons. We’ve also had lineman get their ass whipped at the line of scrimmage. I’m talking not even getting any engagement on certain plays.

Our recruiting under Turner his first two seasons has been less than stellar and our play has matched that as well. I’m not saying he’s on the hot seat by any stretch but if you measure his results based solely on the roster and performance on the field it certainly doesn’t match up with the perception he’s one of the best offensive line coaches in the country. Sometimes perception and reality don’t match when you judge things objectively. If you were to objectively grade Turner’s second stint in Aggieland the performance and talent of his unit certainly doesn’t match up with the perception for what kind of offensive line coach he supposedly is. Turner has a lot to prove this season in my eyes.

Offensive line recruiting has been amazing of recent so something has apparently changed. Maybe it’s the Jimbo effect or maybe it’s true Sumlin was an albatross around Turner’s neck in recruiting. I’m glad for the recruits that have committed for future classes but the success of the 2018 team centers around the performance of the offensive line more than any unit. Right now, it doesn’t look good for our offensive line in 2018. No doubt having a tight end will provide a huge help but the reality is the talent level is not where it should be for a program like Texas A&M. Turner and Jimbo are working on that but it’s not going to be enough for 2018.

Maybe the Aggie offense surprises me in 2018 but I think Jimbo has a couple of years of work ahead of him to get the offense to championship caliber level. If Aggies are expecting Jimbo to have the same success record wise as Sumlin in his first year it’s likely not happening. There’s a MAJOR talent difference between the 2012 Aggie offense and the 2018 Aggie offense that coaching and scheme won’t be able to overcome.

I do believe Jimbo needs to go 8-4 this season but he won’t go 10-2 during the regular season like Sumlin’s first year. Bama and Clemson are certain loses and there will be at least one more if not two more loses on the schedule. It’s possible we go worse than 8-4 but 8-4 should be Jimbo’s baseline for his first season. He needs to do some building to win the SEC and that means winning 8 games in the regular season.

The dream scenario is likely going 9-3 with a win over LSU and then win our bowl game ending the season at 10-3. If that happens it won’t appear to be as good as Sumlin going 11-2 with wins over Alabama and Oklahoma. However, 10-3 with wins over LSU and a bowl win in 2018 will be MUCH better than Sumlin’s 2012 season.

What Jimbo Fisher Means for Texas A&M

Jimbo Landing in Aggieland

A Change in Perception:

When Texas A&M made the hire of Jimbo Fisher official it sent a clear message. Underestimate Texas A&M all you want but Texas A&M doesn’t hold the same belief. Many national and regional “experts” believe Texas A&M is a second tier program in college football. They don’t think A&M can compete with the “bluebloods” of college football. They haven’t been to College Station in 10 years and they still hold their stock in IBM having never invested in Apple, Amazon, or Microsoft. You know, because nothing ever changes.

7 years ago these “experts” that make a living talking college football said Texas A&M wouldn’t get an invite to the SEC. Well, Texas A&M got the invite to the SEC and made the move in 2012. They said it was a stupid move. The first season in the SEC Texas A&M won 11 games and finished in the Top 5 while Johnny Manziel won a Heisman. That was only six seasons ago where Texas A&M competed at the highest level. Sure, it turned out to be a blip but the reality is Texas A&M competed at the highest level and built the most expensive stadium in college football over the last six seasons. Texas A&M can compete at the highest level.

When chatter of Jimbo Fisher getting hired by A&M recently surfaced these “experts” said there was no way Jimbo Fisher would leave FSU. They said it was a second tier program under Florida State. They’re talking about the school that finished in the Top 5 only six seasons previously and had the most expensive college football stadium ever built. No stadium even comes close to the amenities of modern day Kyle Field. These “experts” couldn’t think past the last 12 months. They were convinced Texas A&M despite the 2012 season, it’s location, it’s facilities, and it’s resources couldn’t attract a coach of Jimbo Fisher’s caliber because it was a second tier program. On December 1, 2017, Jimbo Fisher made it official he was leaving Florida State for Texas A&M.

Sadly for these “experts” if they have any historical context their historical context is that of Dennis Franchione, Mike Sherman, and recently Kevin Sumlin. They forget Texas is a hotbed of football recruits and economic development. And I mean a hotbed of football recruits and money. They forget the years from 1985 to 1995 when Texas A&M finished in the final Top 20 for 10 of those 11 seasons. The overall record over those 11 seasons was 104-27-2. That’s a winning percentage of 78 percent. The record at Kyle Field was 63-5-1. That’s a winning percentage of 91 percent. That’s a flat out decade of dominance at home. 1985 was 32 years ago which seems like a long time but it’s not forever ago. For whatever reason these “experts” assumed Texas A&M was just a second tier football program that didn’t belong in the discussions of the upper tier programs.

They believe despite the brand new $450 million stadium and facilities that rival anybody in the country along with a hotbed of recruiting Texas A&M can never compete at the highest level of college football. These people get paid to be “experts” about college football. The truth is these people are idiots and lazy. They sit in their studios watching the games never visiting any campus. Their sole basis for being an “expert” is the most recent decade of success. They’re judging Texas A&M based solely on the jobs done by Mike Sherman and Kevin Sumlin. Mike Sherman and Kevin Sumlin are outstanding people but they didn’t prove to be great college football coaches. College football more than any other sport is about the head coach. In college football the head coach has the highest input of 85 scholarship players including their recruiting, the walk-ons, and the largest staff of any college sport. The sport requires 22 different starters with 11 of those having to work in perfect unison on every play. No other sport comes close to the overall volume and detail the head coach must think about. Because of that the head coach has to be something special. The greats are few and far between. A&M has simply failed on having a great head coach since R.C. Slocum around 1995 with a couple blips in 1998 and 2012. We’ve been in a coach drought. Simple as that. It hasn’t been a resource problem.

The hire of Jimbo Fisher changes that perception. At least it should. The hire of Jimbo Fisher makes these “experts” wake up and pay attention. They can deny it but they’re paying attention. The hire of Jimbo Fisher changes the national perception of Texas A&M’s willingness and ability to compete at the highest level in college football. The hire of Jimbo Fisher says A&M is capable of things people have forgotten about. The hire of Jimbo Fisher tells the “experts” you can think what you want about Texas A&M but Texas A&M thinks differently about itself.

A lot of these “experts” will continue questioning if A&M is a better job than FSU when a man just staked his career to it. Sure, Jimbo Fisher left for more money but he was already a Top 5 paid coach in college football. The dude is as driven by anyone to win college football games. It’s not like he’s coming to College Station for more money and ride out his career for a decade. That makes no sense at all if you think about it logically. A man who seemingly had it all at FSU left for another program. Why would that be? The only real logical explanation is the person himself who has more vested than anyone feels that Texas A&M offers a better chance to win a national championship than Florida State. It really is as simple as that. Sadly the “experts” will go on and on this is about money and Jimbo Fisher is an idiot. I don’t think it’s about money as Jimbo already has plenty and FSU wasn’t firing him anytime soon. Jimbo Fisher may be wrong in the end but the reason he made the move is he feels Texas A&M offers a better chance to win a national championship. It’s the only reason an established coach at a proven Power 5 program would leave for another one. It doesn’t happen very often. I don’t think Jimbo left because of the FSU fans being critical over this season. That seems awful petty. Jimbo seems to have more confidence and pride to let a few fans piss him off and leave. Jimbo left because he thinks Texas A&M offers more resources to win a national championship than Florida State.

Some of the “experts” will also say Dennis Franchione left Alabama for Texas A&M and look how that turned out. They won’t look under the hood and realize Dennis Franchione was a fraud because he was built up by Gary Patterson much the same way Dan Hawkins was at Boise St. Dennis Franchione jumped because of the pending scholarship restrictions coming Alabama’s way. He too at the time believed Texas A&M offered a better chance to win a national championship than his current situation like any coach that decides to move. Alabama was pretty bad after Fran left until Saban showed up. The problem with Fran was he wasn’t actually a good football coach. This is why he struggled at Texas State when he did get another job. Winners win at any level they coach if given enough time. Comparing Jimbo Fisher and Dennis Franchione is an exercise in being lazy. Much different circumstances. Still, those with the inability to have logical thoughts will use that as an argument because they sit in a studio having never been to the campus and regions around Texas A&M and Florida State football. Just because the wins and losses over the last two decades are different doesn’t mean the resources and potential are different.

Ironically enough I’ve been saying for two decades if Florida State, Miami, and Florida can all be seen as equals on the football field why can’t Texas and Texas A&M? Texas has access to great football talent just like Florida does. How is Florida allowed/able to have three marquee programs in their state but Texas which is a bigger state than Florida can only have one? Spare me the argument there’s more bigger schools in Texas because Florida has a boat load of schools as well. Also spare me the argument Oklahoma steals recruits out of Texas. There are PLENTY of great Texas high school football players to build a championship team at A&M. The problem has been and always will be coaching. Texas A&M since R.C. Slocum started declining in the late 90s has failed to hire a competent coach. Dennis Franchione, Mike Sherman, and Kevin Sumlin were simply not great football coaches. Texas A&M for two decades had the wrong person under the headset.

For most, the perception of Texas A&M football will change but some people will keep their head in the sand even though a man staked his career to the move. He burned his legacy on the way out of Tallahassee so he obviously sees something beyond the money. At least I think he does. Most will understand and watch with curiosity if he’s right while the truly moronic people will continue to question why he’d make the move. Those people need to shut up and save the world’s oxygen for something else.

The ultimate perception shift will only occur if Jimbo actually wins and competes with the team in Tuscaloosa. If he mimics Sumlin’s regular 8-4 record and third to fourth place in the SEC West the “experts” will be proven right. If at minimum Jimbo replaces LSU as the second best program in the SEC West while Saban is at Alabama then he’ll prove it was the right move. If Jimbo actually wins a national championship at Texas A&M I’ll start a Go Fund Me page to send every person that questioned why Jimbo would leave FSU for A&M an actual plate of crow. I’m dead serious. Keep those Tweets. I’ve got two from Mike Greenberg and Richard Justice even though Richard Justice deleted his.

Will Jimbo prove the critics right or wrong? Nobody has any idea. That includes Jimbo and the people that made the decision to bring him in. Only time will tell but Texas A&M on December 1, 2017 put their proverbial nuts on the table. Those in charge of hiring a football coach for Texas A&M believe completely different than the “experts” that say Jimbo Fisher is an idiot. Jimbo Fisher has to win to fully change the perception. If that happens those “experts” that questioned the move will be proven the idiots. I can’t wait.

The Mechanics of the Hire and the Contract:

Kudos to Scott Woodward on this hire. Much like when Dr. Loftin took us to the SEC he spoke very minimally and executed like an assassin. With assassins you never know what’s going on but the results are crystal clear. The hire of Jimbo Fisher is crystal clear. Scott Woodward is an assassin and that’s a good thing. While everyone else was out creating wasted noise Woodward was doing his work and when it mattered most pulled the trigger with clear results. No fanfare and no hype. Just the clear result for the main target all along. You love an assassin when they’re on your side.

In the end it sort of seems like a simple hire because there was no fanfare. It wasn’t. LSU tried to do it the previous two seasons and failed. There’s speculation of how long Woodward has been working on this but it doesn’t matter. He got the best coach that would come to Texas A&M. Texas A&M was not getting Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Dabo Swinney, or Jim Harbaugh. I suppose there’s a possibility of getting Chris Petersen but I like the Jimbo Fisher hire more than Chris Petersen which I’ll get to in a little bit. I don’t know the full mechanics of this hire but Woodward executed them perfectly. He zeroed in on Fisher as the biggest attainable fish and reeled him in with flawless execution.

Despite what the “experts” say this wasn’t simply a money whip either. Like I referenced above Jimbo didn’t leave just for money. His situation at Florida State wasn’t bad at all. It took Woodward convincing Jimbo he would be better served at Texas A&M. That’s one hell of a sales job and Woodward should get more credit by the “experts” for pulling this off. LSU has been perceived as the better program but yet Texas A&M is the one that could pull off the hire in one try. Give credit where credit is due and that appears to be the work of Scott Woodward and those at Texas A&M that supported Woodward. Thank goodness we’re not Tennessee. Plus, we’re about to find out what’s going on at FSU as it seems Willie Taggart has turned them down. Scott Frost is also going to Nebraska so he’s not a candidate. This hire couldn’t have been cleaner. Great job by Woodward.

As for the magnitude of the reported $75 million contract over 10 years let’s break it down a bit. Had Sumlin stayed at A&M for 10 years we would have paid him $50 million. That’s assuming he never got a raise. That’s $2.5 million a year difference. If Sumlin had more repeated success there’s no doubt we would have paid Sumlin more than $5 million a year through a raise. On a per year basis it’s really not that much difference because in big time college football $2.5 million isn’t much. We’ll make it up in Double Dave’s pizza rolls sales each season. That is if Double Dave’s can get their act together and have enough on hand where there’s no line and they never run out. Double Dave’s with better execution can make up the difference if they’ll execute like Woodward. There’s always a line for pizza rolls and they always run out. Talk about missed opportunity. Although I’m more of a Gumby’s pizza roll guy because they add garlic or something giving it more flavor. Never understood why Double Dave’s got all the pizza roll love when Gumby’s pizza rolls are better. All marketing and not product in my mind but that’s a blog post for another day.

As for the length of the contract these “experts” and “critics” are some of the same people that said we didn’t give Kevin Sumlin enough time with 6 years. We’re committing to Fisher for a decade so that’s only 4 years more than what Sumlin got. That should be a positive. Fisher is only 52 which at the end of his contract he’ll be younger than Nick Saban is now. Arizona State just hired a 62 year old to run their football program. It’s not unexpected that Fisher can coach 10 more years. Maybe he doesn’t win a national championship but his track record says A&M will be better off than the previous three coaches we hired. Winners win and history indicates Jimbo Fisher is a winner.

Winners don’t come cheap so committing $75 million over 10 years for a coach with Jimbo’s track record seems reasonable to me. It’s steep but it’s a cost of doing business. Attempting to win a national championship requires money or luck. We’ve run out of luck at Texas A&M so time to throw money at winning it all. Mike Gundy was offered 6 years at $7 million by Tennessee and Gus Malzahn has apparently received a raise to $7 million by Auburn. Jimbo at $7.5 million doesn’t seem out of line at all compared to the numbers that have come out this past week.

If in 10 years Jimbo Fisher has not won more than the coaches that came before him then Texas A&M needs to do a serious internal analysis. Stop wasting money on football and turn Kyle Field into a bullfighting arena or something. If Jimbo is worse than or even equal to Kevin Sumlin then we need to stop wasting money on football all together at Texas A&M. This is an experiment at the highest level to see where Aggie Football can go. It’s time to step up to find the ceiling. Finding that ceiling costs money.

I’ve seen Mike Leach’s name get thrown out there for saving money and getting similar results. Nobody loves Mike Leach more than me since he’s no longer at Tech clowning Franchione and Sherman. I don’t really get it though. Mike Leach is a fine coach but he’s never won a division. Sure, he tied for it once at Tech but after beating Texas to have the inside track to win the division his team got clowned by OU. He had the division in front of him and he couldn’t get it done. Then he lost the Cotton Bowl to Ole Miss that season. That’s the closest he’s ever come to winning a division and a major bowl. Mike Leach will do more with less but he has a ceiling in my mind. Mike Leach has won 10 games in ONE season of 16 seasons as head coach. I know Texas Tech and Washington State aren’t perennial winners but you would think he’d have at least one more season where he won at least 10 games. He’s only had one.

I don’t think rolling the dice and saving money would have been a good move with Leach. I don’t see the “great” switch going off for Mike Leach at Texas A&M or any major program. He’ll be a thorn to opponents but he’ll never win it all. It’s not worth saving money to not have a chance to win it all. That goes for any other similar unproven coach. It wouldn’t have been worth it to save some money and “hope” that coach becomes great at Texas A&M. We tried it with Franchione and Sumlin and it didn’t work. Like I said earlier we’re out of time for “hope” so it’s time to spend money.

$75 million for ten years seems like a risky investment but let’s take a look at Jimbo the coach and see how risky it is. Everybody said the Red Sox and Cubs couldn’t win it all until they finally hired someone competent enough to lead the team. It’s always about leadership and that costs money.

Jimbo the Head Coach:

I believe a coach’s record matters more than anything else. You can play ifs and buts all you want but over a period of time a coach’s record no matter where they coach will reflect their ability. If he’s at a horrible program he’ll improve the record he took over if he’s a good coach. Let’s look at Jimbo’s record and the four seasons at Florida State before he took over from Bowden.

The first four years are Bobby Bowden and the final eight years that are bolded are Jimbo Fisher.

Year	Record	Conference	Bowl (W/L)	Final Rank	Title
Bowden – 2006	7-6	3-5	Emerald – W	NR
2007	7-6	4-4	Music City – L	NR
2008	9-4	5-3	Champs Sports – W	23	Division
2009	7-6	4-4	Gator – W	NR
Jimbo- 2010	10-4	6-3	ChickFilA – W	16	Division
2011	9-4	5-3	Champs Sports – W	23
2012	12-2	7-1	Orange – W	8	Conference
2013	14-0	8-0	BCS NCG – W	1	National Champ
2014	13-1	8-0	Rose – L	6	Conference
2015	10-3	6-2	Peach – L	14
2016	10-3	5-3	Orange -W	8
2017	5-5	3-5

As you can see, the four seasons before Jimbo took over Florida State was not exactly a dominant program. Florida State only finished once in the Top 25 those four seasons. Their best record was 9-4 with an ACC division championship. Other than that Florida State had a 7-6 record each season prior to Jimbo Fisher taking over.

The first season Jimbo took over he lead Florida State to a 9-3 regular season record winning the Atlantic Division. They lost to Va. Tech in the ACC Title game but beat South Carolina in the ChickFilA Bowl. That’s a pretty quick turnaround from the previous season at Florida State where they went 7-6.

Overall, including bowl games, Jimbo Fisher won 10 games or more in 6 of 8 seasons. He was 6-2 in bowl games including 2 Orange Bowl wins and a national championship in the Rose Bowl. That’s three marquee bowl game wins which is damn impressive in 8 seasons. He went to 5 marquee bowl games from 2012 to 2016.

He lost the Rose Bowl in 2014 in the first year of the College Football Playoff to Oregon and Marcus Mariota. In 2015 FSU lost to UH in the ChickFilA Peach Bowl. I believe FSU was on their third string quarterback that game. That can be considered a bad loss but that UH team was hitting on all cylinders and Tom Herman at UH was 5-0 against Top 25 teams at UH. I’m not going to completely ding Jimbo for that loss even though it looks pretty bad. In 2016 Jimbo beat Jim Harbaugh’s vaunted Michigan team in the Orange Bowl. He’s played in big bowl games and done pretty well.

A lot of people like to point out Jimbo’s greatest success came with Jameis Winston under center. That can be considered true but the fact of the matter is Florida State went 27-1 those two seasons. Say what you want to about Jameis but Jimbo harnessed his talent to only lose 1 game in 2 seasons. That’s remarkable. Jameis was a great college quarterback but Jimbo deserves credit for going 27-1 in those two seasons. How many coaches have gone 27-1 over two seasons? Not many at all. It still takes coaching to win like that even if you have talent. Ask Mack Brown, Les Miles, and Ron Zook.

Outside of Jameis, Jimbo has lead Florida State to a 56-21 record which is a 73 percent winning rate. That includes the 5-5 record this season which has brought it down some. Even without Jameis Winston and a .500 season he’s basically winning every 3 of 4 games. Add in the Jameis Winston years and Jimbo has an overall record of 83-22 which is an almost 80 percent winning rate. That’s winning every 4 of 5 games over 8 years as the head man at Florida State. That’s damn good no matter how you want to spin his time there. I firmly believe winners win and there’s no denying Jimbo Fisher won a lot of football games at FSU.

Based on the last 12 years of Florida State football there’s no reason to think Jimbo Fisher won’t improve the number of wins the Aggies have going forward. His 8 seasons of football at Florida State speak for themselves compared to the previous 4 seasons. He wins football games plain and simple. There’s plenty of talent on the A&M football roster to win more games in 2018 than in 2017. His biggest issue is going to be improving the A&M offensive line along with deciding pretty early if he wants to have a dual threat attack with Kellen Mond or a straight passing attack with Nick Starkel. He may also bring in another quarterback but my guess is he’ll roll with either Mond or Starkel.

The schedule is pretty tough playing Clemson and Alabama in 2 of the first 4 games so we’ll find out pretty quickly if Jimbo can make improvements to Aggie football. I don’t expect A&M to win those games but I do expect them to be competitive in those games. The rest of the schedule should be pretty manageable with Auburn and LSU posing the toughest tests for the remaining 8 games. I don’t think it’s out of the question for A&M to go 8-4 next season at minimum but if Jimbo is worth his $7.5 million a year we should win at least 9 games and potentially 10. I do expect to see immediate improvement when it comes to wins and losses next season. We didn’t hire Jimbo to “build” a program. We hired him to come in and start winning more games right away. He’s got a 10 year contract but he’s being paid to win more in Year 1. No excuses. There’s no “building” with his pedigree and what he’s being paid.

In addition to his coaching record Jimbo is known as an elite recruiter. He had a head start on Kevin Sumlin’s time in Aggieland having already been at Florida State for 2 seasons but Florida State out-recruited Texas A&M in each of Sumlin’s six seasons. Sumlin was seen as a strong recruiter but Jimbo proved better. In 8 seasons of signing recruits Florida State was ranked in the Top 10 every season except for one where they came in at number 11 so almost in the Top 10. In those 8 seasons Florida State was ranked in the Top 5 for 5 of those signing classes. That’s an elite level of recruiting for sure. There’s no reason to think Jimbo Fisher can’t do the same at Texas A&M. He’ll be leading the only SEC team in the state of Texas and the other flagship school struggling right now so he shouldn’t have issues recruiting. He’s an offensive coach but Jimbo recruited elite talent on both sides of the ball at Florida State.

Jimbo and his staff appear to do a pretty good job developing that talent. Florida State has had 35 players drafted in the last 5 years. That’s averaging 7 players each year of the last 5 NFL drafts. There’s been 35 rounds in the last 5 NFL drafts so Florida State basically had a player for every round. It didn’t break down that way but you get the point. It certainly appears that Jimbo can not only recruit elite level talent but he and his staff can also develop it. There are lots of coaches that can recruit but can’t develop talent and Jimbo seems to develop talent.

The data basically speak for itself in Jimbo’s time at Florida State. If you look at record, recruiting, and drafting Jimbo Fisher is a Top 5 coach in the country. That’s pretty hard to argue. There’s no guarantee those things will carry over at Texas A&M but at least he’s proven he can do it. I don’t think he would have taken the job if he didn’t feel he can replicate his success. Maybe he just cashed a huge lottery check but I really think he believes he can do at Texas A&M what he did at Florida State. He wouldn’t have made the move if he didn’t because his situation at Florida State was really damn good. I mean the “experts” say that Florida State is the better job. Jimbo Fisher made a calculated decision he can do at Texas A&M what he did at Florida State. I’ll trust the man with the skins on the wall over the “experts” that sit in a studio or behind a keyboard. One man has done it. The others haven’t.

Make no mistake Jimbo Fisher was hired to Make Aggie Football Great Again. Only time will tell if he actually can. Based on his time at Florida State there’s no reason think in 5 years he won’t change the phrase Make Aggie Football Great Again to Made Aggie Football Great Again. For $7.5 million a year he better change the “k” in Make to a “d” for Made. When that happens it will prove every single dollar we signed Jimbo for was worth it and the “experts” are idiots. We’ll be shipping plates of crow all over the country.

#MAFGA

Gig ‘Em Aggies!

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Analyzing the Chief

At the end of last season I was utterly confused on what to think about John Chavis. I’m the Chief’s biggest fan but I was questioning if I was fan because he fits the mold of defensive coordinator from Central Casting or if it was because he was an effective defensive coordinator. During the 2015 season I felt I saw a defense that was the best since 2012 and likely back to Von Miller’s senior season with Cody Hodges. I felt in the early part of the 2016 season we were seeing the return of the Wrecking Crew after great defensive efforts against Auburn and Arkansas. Tennessee was questionable with the 4^th quarter collapse but at the end of the season it was clear this defense was different than 2015 and the first half of 2016. This defense appeared to be a shell of what it had been since Chief started.

To help figure out what was real and wasn’t I went back and looked at every loss with Chavis as our DC. There were lots of games I felt our defense played well enough to win but our offense let us down. We’ve lost 10 games in the two years Chief has been handling our defense. I went and made a chart that showed the score of the game, how many points the defense gave up, second half points, total yards, and rushing yards. I then came up with a purely arbitrary grade called GETW which stands for Good Enough to Win. I wanted a feel for if the defense played well enough for us to win the game.

Here’s the chart and I’ll go down game by game analyzing each one.

Bama – 2015:

This is one of the most maddening games of the Sumlin era that nobody talks about. The final score wound up being 41-23 so it looks like a blowout but everyone forgets our offense threw THREE pick sixes in this game. That’s right, the offense gave up almost as many points as our defense. You just can’t remove those 21 points and say the Aggies win 23-20 as it doesn’t work that way. It is reasonable enough to think the defense did everything they could for the Aggies to win that day.

Derrick Henry gashed the Aggie defense in the first quarter and early in the second half but after that the Aggie defense shut him down along with the Bama offense. So much so that Bama only scored 2 field goals in the second half outside of the interception returns for touchdowns. I don’t care if Bama was in lead protection mode. To hold Bama’s offense to only field goals in the second half is impressive. The most impressive statistic of the day was that Bama was only 4 of 16 on third down conversions. 25 percent. That is DAMN impressive to have that Bama offense only convert 25% of their third down conversions. The defense was getting off the field when they had to. The defense definitely played good enough to win this game and the offense just pissed it away.

Ole Miss – 2015:

This game makes me want to pull my hair out because it was the most inept offensive performance I’ve ever seen. It was maddening being in the stands watching an offense just spit and sputter. The statistics make it look like the defense didn’t play well enough but they absolutely did. They gave up 23 overall but just 7 in the second half which shows John Chavis has the ability to make in game adjustments. In addition the defense got 4 turnovers while the offense had 3. The defense responded EVERY time the offense turned the ball and yet the offense did NOTHING with those gifts from the defense.

Statistically this game looks bad for the defense and it’s not great but they played their hearts out that night. Meanwhile Jake Spavital struggled just to keep his note cards in some order so he could get plays signaled in that wouldn’t amount to anything. I don’t even want to write anymore on this game because I want to go find Jake Spavital and choke him. He really should have been relieved of his duties after this game. He absolutely should have.

Auburn – 2015:

This is a very confusing game for me to analyze from a defensive standpoint. First off, our stupid offense only scored 10 points against a suspect Auburn defense. That 10 points was the lowest Auburn held an opponent to all season where the next lowest was 17 and every other game their opponent scored at least 20 points. Boy Wonder Spavital mustered 10 points against this defense at Kyle Field. Unreal.

Defensively we got gashed this game. Auburn ripped off 311 yards on the ground and just gashed us all night. We couldn’t slow them down at all on the ground. Malzahn is a run game genius but they were just running willy nilly against us. They were pretty balanced scoring 14 points in the first half and 12 points in the second half. This is a game that on the surface the defense didn’t play well enough to win but our offense was so anemic I think they could have played well enough to win with some kind of support from our offense. I don’t put this one solely on our defense.

LSU – 2015:

Another maddening game thanks to our offense. Even though this game was in Tiger Stadium and they scored 19 points there’s no doubt in my mind the defense played well enough to win this game. They gave up 14 points in the second half but our offense was doing nothing yet again as they only scored 7 total points. I know LSU has a damn good defense but there were holes the offense could have exploited to score 20 points but they didn’t.

Statistically the Aggie defense held the LSU offense to 327 yards which his amazing. They held the LSU offense in total yards to basically what Auburn did on the ground against us a few weeks before. I don’t like the 19 points but our offense turned the ball over 3 times to LSU’s once so once again our offense did nothing to help our defense. It’s a little questionable but I’d say our defense definitely played well enough to win this game as our offense was once again just putrid with Spav wearing the headset.

Louisville – 2015:

I’m torn on this game as well. My main issue here is we gave up too much too early to Lamar Jackson. This was his coming out party and we weren’t prepared. We gave up 537 total yards and 307 on the ground as Jackson just ran silly in the first half. In the second half our defense tightened up holding them to 7 points but once again our offense couldn’t muster anything at all this game. Despite scoring 21 points most of it was in the second half and it was too little too late.

I think this was a winnable game but the defense game up too many yards and points to Lamar Jackson in the first half while the offense spit and sputtered yet again. By the time things got working for both the offense and defense in the second half it was too little, too late. This wasn’t a terrible showing by the defense as it was definitely a winnable game based on their effort but they’re not without faults this game.

Bama – 2016:

This is a semi-tough game to analyze because the defense played well enough to win during the first half and first series of the second half. The offense had opened up the second half scoring on it’s first drive to make it a 14-13 lead. On Bama’s first possession of the second half Shaan Washington shoved Jalen Hurts to the ground on the first 3^rd down. Bama was not converting on the play as Hurts basically threw it away. The defense had held on a 3^rd down but a stupid penalty gave Bama the first down. They then went on to score putting Bama back in a lead situation they would never relinquish. The defense would give up another score in the second half and the offense would also give up a score like the previous year.

Maybe if Shaan Washington doesn’t push Hurts the outcome of the game is different but in my mind this is equal parts offense and defense. The reality is the defense didn’t play well enough in the second half to win this game so I can’t give them a great grade here.

Mississippi St – 2016:

This is the ultimate tale of two halves for the Aggie defense. In the first half they gave up 28 points to a suspect Mississippi State offense and in the second half they only gave up 7 points but did get some key turnovers when it looked like Mississippi State would score in the second half. The defense held until Mississippi State’s final possession where they scored a touchdown to go up 35-21 and put the game out of reach. Credit to the defense for holding as long as they could to let the offense get back into it but they broke giving up that TD late in the 4^th quarter that put the game out of reach.

The most frustrating part about this game is Mississippi State had 574 yards of total offense and 365 rushing yards. I mean no dis-respect to the Bulldogs but that’s TERRIBLE for an Aggie defense to give up to a team like Mississippi State. I still don’t know how that happened. Still, the Aggie defense held for the second half except that final possession so I do have to give credit for trying to make up for an atrocious first half but they just couldn’t hold MSU out of the end zone in the second half and that caused the loss.

Ole Miss – 2016:

This game is a total head scratcher from a defensive standpoint because in this game our defense COMPLETELY fell apart in the fourth quarter. This defense gave up 23 points to a true freshman starting his first game ever. Now, he looks like a pretty special quarterback but you can’t give up 23 points at Kyle Field in the 4^th quarter.

Even if the offense had put up more points the Aggie defense giving up 23 points in the fourth quarter is unacceptable and not like a Chavis lead defense at all. So despite this being a 1 point game and the defense held Ole Miss to 6 points through 3 quarters you can’t collapse like that and expect anything positive. It’s like never cheating for 15 years of your marriage and then the last 5 you start cheating and when you get caught thinking you get some credit for the first 15. The first 15 years were wiped up by your failure in the last 5. Ironically enough does anybody know Hugh Freeze’s marriage stats? It might be similar.

LSU – 2016:

The worst game of Chavis’ time at A&M. There is not one redeeming quality of this game from a defensive standpoint. Not a single one. LSU was led by Danny Etlinger who hadn’t done much all season for LSU. Well, he walked into Kyle Field and lit us up. Our defense gave up 54 points and 622 total yards of offense with 298 on the ground so they basically equally shredded us on the ground and through the air.

This is the game that got me questioning everything I believed about Chief. I don’t even want to talk about it because it was so bad defensively.

KSU – 2016:

We “only” gave up 413 yards but we gave up 33 points to a VERY pedestrian KSU offense. This is another head scratcher. We gave up a 79 yard touchdown pass and a 52 yard touchdown run in the first half which is 131 yards and almost 33% of their total offense on two plays. If you take away those two plays this is a very respectable defensive effort and we likely win but in reality the defense gave up those two plays so they don’t get any credit.

This game is just the perfect capper for a defense that flat out fell apart in the second half of the season. They didn’t play well enough to win. No way should KSU have scored 33 points on us. I think most Aggie fans were numb for this loss because it’s part of yet another season collapse for a Sumlin lead team but this really is an EMBARASSING loss for the Aggie defense.

Summary:

In analyzing this I have no clue what to think. In 2015 our defense was EXTREMELY consistent in every game all season except maybe the Auburn and Louisville games. However, our offense did it no favors in those games. Despite losing, the defense played well enough to beat Bama, Ole Miss, and LSU so that’s damn impressive. The effort and results of the 2015 defense is very respectable.

However, 2016 was a total Jekyll and Hyde performance. Against UCLA and Tennessee the defense played damn good except for 5 minutes in the fourth quarter where they gave up 15 points both times but we still won in OT. Against Auburn and Arkansas they were flat out dominant.

For a half against Bama they played well enough to win but the wheels came off in the second half. Chavis never got them put back on or left them in Tuscaloosa. I can’t explain it. I really can’t. His first year he had a damn solid and consistent defense that was honestly good enough to win 10 games with a decent offense. The next year in 2016 the performances accurately reflect the scores. The defense didn’t play well enough to win any games that were lost. It’s odd. Two seasons and two totally different results.

I hate saying it because I love everything about the man from a coaching standpoint but Chief is in the same boat as Sumlin. Chief needs to prove he still knows how to coach a defense because the second half of 2016 puts it in major question. Sure, Sumlin’s fate will ultimately decide Chief’s fate but Chief has a lot of questions to answer himself. I like to think he’s an elite level defensive coordinator but the results from the second half of the 2016 season say that’s in question.

Only the 2017 season will tell.

When Aggie Football Was Great

As the Founder, President, and main client of the Make Aggie Football Great Again Movement I often get asked when Aggie Football was ever great. Obviously it was great in 1939 when the Aggies won their only official National Championship. In addition there was the 1956 team that went 9-0-1 and finished 5^th in the AP poll, the 1976 team that went 10-2 and finished 7^th in the AP poll, and of course in recent memory the 2012 team that went 11-2 finishing 5^th in the AP poll. Those are four isolated seasons where one was definitely great and three others that were really good bordering on great.

For me there was a decade of Aggie Football in recent memory that was borderline great that I think Aggie Football can get back to with the right head coach. College football is cyclical but there’s a decade of Aggie Football that should the standard by which Aggie Football is judged. That decade is from 1985 to 1995. 20-30 years ago seems like a distant memory now but it should be a reminder of what’s possible.

In those 11 seasons Aggie Football finished outside of the Top 20 only once. They finished in the Top 10 in five of those seasons. They finished with 10 wins in six of those seasons in a period when only 11 games where the norm as opposed to the 12 games that are played now. There were some 12 game seasons back then but the majority of those seasons were 11 game seasons so 10 wins is a big milestone. There were three 9 win seasons and only one season of 8 wins and one season of 7 wins. That’s pretty damn impressive from a win standpoint. That’s a combined record of 104-27-2 for those 11 seasons for a winning percentage of .782. That is an outstanding winning percentage over a decade.

Here’s a chart that summarizes each season:

There’s a lot to digest but there’s no doubt that’s a decade of REALLY good football bordering on great. Win one national championship in there and that’s absolutely a great decade of football. There were legitimate chances to win it all in 1985, 1992, and 1994.

1985 was a lot like the 2012 season where they opened up with a tough loss to a ranked Alabama team on the road, lost to a ranked Baylor team in the middle of the season, and then got hot and just rolled everyone they played absolutely thrashing their final three opponents in TCU, Texas, and Auburn that included Heisman Trophy winner Bo Jackson in the Cotton Bowl. Had they not lost one of those early season losses they might have had an outside chance to get Penn St to the Cotton Bowl instead of OU getting them in the Orange Bowl which is how OU won the national championship that year. Early season losses set this team back just like in 2012. There’s no doubt though at the end of the season this was one of the best teams in the country.

1992 was an undefeated regular season but like the modern day Big 12, Texas A&M was playing in a wretched Southwest Conference. So wretched there wasn’t one team in the Southwest Conference that was ranked when they played. A&M’s only win over a ranked opponent was to open the season against Stanford who was ranked 20^th at the time. At the same time both Alabama and Miami went undefeated beating more ranked opponents than A&M so Miami went to the Sugar Bowl instead of the Cotton Bowl. Had Bama lost a game that season there’s an outside chance Miami and A&M would have matched up in the Cotton Bowl for the national championship but that’s still a stretch as Miami might have played Florida State in a re-match. The Southwest Conference did A&M no favors that season because the teams were crap much like what top Big 12 teams face today. Of course A&M losing to Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl makes talk of a national championship that season moot but that was a damn good Notre Dame team. However, A&M didn’t help itself for that game having to suspend Greg Hill for receiving improper benefits. As it was A&M belonged in the conversation of Alabama, Miami, Florida State, and Notre Dame teams that were just loaded with talent. That was a great team. Probably the greatest of that decade for Aggie Football.

The 1994 team technically went undefeated but thanks to Greg Hill not going to his cush job for Warren Gilbert at a Dallas apartment complex they were on NCAA probation. A&M was banned both from the post season and television that year. A&M had no chance to win a national championship that season but if Greg Hill goes to his job or doesn’t take the money this potentially could have been a championship team. The reality is this team wasn’t really all that close as even if they weren’t on probation and hadn’t tied SMU in one of the worst games I’ve ever witnessed as an Aggie fan, an undefeated Texas A&M likely wouldn’t have climbed over undefeated Nebraska and Penn St who had better regular season opponents and impressive bowl victories to remain undefeated. Playing in the Southwest Conference was just not going to position a team for a National Championship unless a bunch of other teams lost in their better conferences. That didn’t happen in 1994 but if A&M goes undefeated in 1992 and isn’t on probation it’s not a total stretch to think this team is playing for a national championship assuming they beat SMU that season.

While the Southwest Conference was pretty bad for the most part the statistic that stands out to me during that decade is the record at Kyle Field. 63-5-1 is just flat out amazing. That’s partially where the mystique of Kyle Field came from in recent memory. In 11 seasons Texas A&M only lost FIVE games at Kyle Field. FIVE games in 11 seasons. That’s unreal. In 7 seasons Texas A&M never lost a game at home. There was one tie which is kind of losing but it’s not a loss so we won’t count it that way. Only one season did A&M lose 2 games and that was easily the worst team of that decade. A&M never lost more than 1 game at Kyle in any other season and had a five year run where a fan at Kyle Field never saw a loss with just one tie. That is flat out amazing at defending Kyle Field. That my friends is absolutely great Aggie Football at home. I don’t care how bad the Southwest Conference was as there were some big wins over non conference opponents and some solid Southwest Conference teams along the way. Five losses in 11 seasons. That’s amazing.

I won’t classify that entire decade as truly great because of the struggle in bowl games and key road losses but it’s not far from it and it’s what Aggie Football expectations should be. With A&M’s resources there’s no reason why we can’t return to a decade of Aggie football like this and make it even better. Make the right hire and we can get back there.

The most interesting part of this decade is a conversation I had with Dr. Loftin in 2010 after Nebraska and Colorado announced they were leaving for the Pac 12 and we had flirted with the SEC but didn’t pull the trigger. This was prior to the Longhorn Network being announced. Dr. Loftin told me the support for going to the SEC wasn’t as large as it seemed. He said it was actually divided more to staying as there was a silent majority that was fearful of the SEC. He told me he had basically divided support for the SEC between two major groups. One was the recent graduates who were enamored with the SEC because of all the publicity it was getting at the time and the other was those Aggies that had graduated during this decade of Aggie Football and more specifically those that had been in school when Jackie was coach. Those Aggies didn’t fear the SEC like those that didn’t attend school during that decade.

Dr. Loftin didn’t say this but there’s no doubt those Aggies during that period remember dominating football teams and most importantly dominating Kyle Field. They weren’t scared at all of the SEC as they know Aggie football can compete at the highest level with the right coach. This decade of Aggie Football should be the minimum standard of expectations going forward. If those results aren’t being achieved then we need to be doing a serious study of what’s going wrong and what change is needed. Shift the mindset that this decade is what Aggie Football should be. We’re not there from a mental standpoint. We really aren’t.

If you didn’t experience that decade as a student or fan you don’t know what you’re missing out on. Kyle Field rocked every game and the biggest reason was the Wrecking Crew. Defense was the staple of that decade and a coach needs to focus on bringing the Wrecking Crew mentality back. It won’t be easy in this new era of high powered offenses but A&M needs a head coach that makes recruiting and preparing defensive players to thrash opponents a top priority. Easier said than done but offense just wins games and the Wrecking Crew can win championships. If a coach doesn’t understand the importance of bringing the Wrecking Crew back then we stand no chance of ever being great again.

There is no doubt with the right mindset a head coach can absolutely Make Aggie Football Great Again. There’s a decade that says it’s possible.

#MAFGA

The Curious Case of Lane Kiffin

I actually planned on writing this blog entry for a while and decided last week to write it. In researching this blog I learned the day I’d post the link would be Lane Kiffin’s 42^nd birthday. Happy birthday, Coach Kiffin. I hope you’re on a Florida beach with a beer bottle in hand soaking in your 42 years. I’d be disappointed if you weren’t.

Everything about Lane Kiffin intrigues me. The dude has a genius football mind but he can’t seem to keep focus or have any kind of drive to want to be great. Something I talk about all the time in what I think drives people to be great is channeling losing to get better but losing doesn’t seem to bother him. He just seems like a frat guy that doesn’t take anything too serious. He’s extremely gifted for his profession but he doesn’t seem to really care. He was definitely too young to be named head coach of the Raiders at 31 but in a decade of having major responsibilities as a coach he hasn’t appeared to have grown up or developed any kind of drive to be great. He’s just living life.

On his 42^nd birthday Lane Kiffin will have had the following titles:

Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders
Head Coach of the Tennessee Volunteers
Head Coach of the USC Trojans
Offensive Coordinator at Alabama with three straight berths in the College Football Playoffs winning one national championship.
Head Coach of Florida Atlantic University

There are coaches in their 60s that would die to have just one of those titles. Lane Kiffin has done this by his 42^nd birthday. It’s remarkable. And he hasn’t been terrible at each stop other than Oakland but who hasn’t been terrible in Oakland. His main issue is he never lived up to the expectations put on him at USC but he was working with a stacked deck against him with postseason bans and scholarship restrictions.

I really didn’t watch much of Lane Kiffin while he was at Tennessee or USC to know what kind of coach he truly was when it came to games. I remember the remarks he made at Tennessee that pissed off Urban Meyer and some of the shenanigans he had at USC like claiming he didn’t know the ball boy was deflating footballs or whatever it was. There was some other stuff at USC that I remember thinking he wasn’t taking things seriously as a head coach.

Where I really started paying attention to Lane Kiffin was as OC at Bama. With A&M playing Bama every year and Bama being the bell cow of college football I started watching a lot of their games. To me Kiffin has hands down been the best play caller in the country over the last three years. Sure, he’s working with a ton of talent but the reality is he jump started a Bama offensive that was pretty bland and vanilla before he got there. Bama started putting a lot more points on the board. I don’t think Kiffin gets enough credit for it because everyone just points to Bama’s talent and thinks anyone could have done it.

For people that make that argument let me make a counter argument in that Kiffin won the SEC three years in a row with Blake Sims, Jake Coker, and true freshman Jalen Hurts as his QB. Look at that list again. I don’t think there’s another OC in the country that even with Bama’s other offensive talent would have won the SEC and been to the College Football Playoff three years in a row with that string of quarterbacks. The only consistent in Bama’s offensive output in those three seasons is Lane Kiffin. The dude has been a magnificent play caller in his three seasons as Bama’s OC.

The only game I can recall where I thought Kiffin was questionable was the 2014 CFP Semi Final against Ohio State. Ohio State took the lead in the third quarter and then Sims threw a pick six which put Ohio State up by two scores. Bama was able to score and get the game within six and then both teams punted back and forth a little. On one particular punt the Bama defense pushed Ohio St back to the goal line and Ohio St botched the punt giving it to Bama at the 23 yard line. That is opportunity pounding on the door if I ever saw it.

Considering Sims had thrown the pick six three series ago I felt Bama should have pounded it down Ohio State’s throat with Derrick Henry. Lean on their defense and at worst get three points out of the deal while giving the defense some rest. What does Kiffin do? On the very first play of getting the ball on the Ohio State 23 he calls a pass play to the goal line. Ohio State picks it off at the one yard line and returns it to the 8. Bama had a chance to gain all the momentum back but Kiffin gave it right back to Ohio State. He trusted his play calling over Sims ability. Kiffin got greedy instead of being smart and it cost Bama the national championship with that playcall because to me Bama never recovered from that call. There’s little doubt in my mind they would have beaten Oregon just like Ohio State did had they beat Ohio State that game. Had Kiffin made a different set of play calls there and then coached the national championship game this year there’s a good chance Nick Saban has three national championships in a row. I’m dead serious. If that’s Kiffin’s only blemish that’s still REALLY damn good for his three years at Bama.

Midway through last season Kiffin started getting mentioned as a head coaching candidate again. Had we fired Sumlin last season I thought the combination of Kiffin running the offense and John Chavis running the defense would be a pretty salty staff. Kiffin’s actions at the end of the season have given me major pause that he’s matured and is driven to be a great head coach.

Kiffin wasn’t in line for any major coaching jobs it seemed. I think the best opportunity he had was for the UH job and the rumor is he turned that down because of the restrictions and buyout they wanted to prevent him from leaving after a year or two. I get him not wanting the restrictions but UH is a good program where he could have spent 3-4 years and then stepped up. They were going to pay pretty well but instead he took the Florida Atlantic coaching job for less money than he was making as OC at Bama.

There’s no doubt his time at Bama had run its course and he had to move on. I just don’t understand why he took the FAU job for less money than he made at Bama and much less money than he would have made at UH. FAU is a crappy job. They haven’t won a damn thing and as great as I think Kiffin is as an OC he’s not going to turn FAU around overnight. He’ll need to spend 4-5 years there I believe. He would have been better off going to UH for more money even with the restrictions. If he won at UH like Briles, Sumlin, and Herman before him there’s no doubt he’d be set up for a solid head coaching gig in a Power 5 conference. I don’t know that there’s anything more he could accomplish at FAU over UH and he’s taking probably 1/3 of the money to do it with more risk. It makes no sense if he’s matured and truly driven to be a national championship winning head coach. The FAU job is a real head scratcher from a coaching standpoint.

In addition to the UH job there’s another clear better option than FAU. Kiffin could have gone to LSU to be OC for his buddy Ed Ogeron. LSU would have likely paid Kiffin $2 million a year to run their offense and there’s enough talent at LSU to beat Bama and win a national championship. If Kiffin had at minimum beaten Bama just once in two years then SEC schools would have backed up dump truck piles of cash to give him their head coaching job. There’s no doubt in my mind about that. I actually think taking the LSU OC job would have been his best move as he would have made twice the money he’s making at FAU and he could have beaten Bama with LSU’s talent. LSU has every bit of talent as Bama but just doesn’t have the coaching. With a Bama win under his belt at LSU he could have the pick of SEC jobs. SEC schools would have fired their coach not named Saban or Coach O to hire Kiffin. Hell, LSU might have fired or demoted Coach O if Kiffin actually beat Saban. I’m dead serious.

What I really think happened is he took the FAU gig solely to chase women. He got divorced a year or two ago and outside of coeds on the Bama campus I can’t imagine there were any single women in Tuscaloosa up to his standards. He knew Bama coeds were off limits or Saban would actually castrate him. He thought with the wrong head and headed to Boca Raton where the women for his standards are plentiful and nobody cares about the social life of Lane Kiffin because he’s basically a nobody in South Florida. I really think that was the main factor for his taking the FAU job.

At USC he made $3.4 million in his last year which was 2013 and he had two years left on his deal so he also made $3.4 million in 2014 and 2015 between USC and Bama. In 2016 he made $1.4 million which is $2 million less a year from his previous salary. Then he took a gig for $1 million a year while turning down better opportunities for at least twice the money. Plus, he’s paying child support and alimony to his ex wife so it’s not like that money is going directly to him so he’s taking a SIGNIFICANT pay cut to coach at FAU. I really think he just moved to Boca Rotan for the women because he doesn’t care about coaching all that much. There’s no doubt money isn’t everything but I just wonder if he’s driven to be great. It doesn’t seem like it’s a driver for him right now.

The other thing that makes me pause for his true drive to be great is how things went down at Bama. When he accepted the FAU job it was stated he would finish with Bama including the national championship game if they got there. After beating Washington to get in the national championship game two to three days later it’s announced Kiffin would not be coaching in the national championship game. That was out of the blue and my guess is Saban told him to pack his stuff because he wasn’t focused anymore. A guy driven for success would have been so focused to win that game knowing it would help his recruiting at FAU even more by being able to show off back to back championship rings. If he’s suffering burnout at 41 for being just the OC at Bama it gets much worse trying to be a national championship head coach.

Maybe I’m wrong about Kiffin. Maybe he has a plan in place for achieving greatness which to me is winning national championships. Maybe he doesn’t care and just wants to live an easy life away from the stresses of big time college football. If he truly wants to be great there are better paths to take than the one he’s taking now. He just turned 42 today so maybe there’s time for him to mature but I believe this is about the time he should really mature and change his focus. Based on his actions in the last 6-9 months he’s definitely not ready to be head coach at an SEC program competing for national championships in my mind.

Either way he’s accomplished more than most head coaches at the age of 42 so maybe he’s just on the beach with a cold beer in his hand smiling that he figured out the world before it figured him out.

Happy Birthday Coach Kiffin.

Thoughts from the Tennessee Game

First off, something VERY major happened with that Tennessee win. Kevin Sumlin confirmed his spot as Aggie head coach for one more season. It was trending he was off the hot seat but if the Aggies collapsed like the last two seasons and he lost to Tenn, Bama, Ole Miss, and LSU there’s a slight chance Sumlin could have lost his job. With this win we’re a 9-3 regular season team and will play in a damn good bowl game. Kevin is gonna win at least nine so with that Tennessee victory on Saturday night he guaranteed he’s fine for 2017. Congrats Coach.

Secondly, I’m TIRED of all the hand wringing about the Wrecking Crew. Yes it’s frustrating and statistically it doesn’t look good at times but the reality is this Wrecking Crew while not dominant responds and makes plays when it has to. The offense is still a work in progress but for 90% of the game our defense is playing their assess off and making plays. I get the frustration of the 10% when they’re not dominant but don’t ever forget what those guys are doing for almost the entire game. Tennessee is a damn good football team and dialed up some great plays and made some second half adjustments we were late to adjust to. Still, that defense played their ass off on Saturday night and they’re the reason we won. While our offense was sputtering our defense was holding their own for most of the game.

If Trayveon Williams doesn’t fumble out of the back of the end zone there’s a good chance we win that game 42-28. I’m not sure Tennessee would have scored knowing they had to come back two scores down with under 2 minutes. If he’s tackled it’s a 35-28 game that we kneel out. That changes the perception of things big time. I’m not putting this on Trayveon directly but the odds of that play happening are miniscule and yet totally changed the perception of the game from a defensive standpoint. In overtime the Wrecking Crew showed up and held Tennessee to only 5 plays including the field goal. When they had to, the Wrecking Crew has shown up twice in overtime games. I don’t like the stats either but the point is this defense has shown they can show up and make plays when it’s needed most. We haven’t had this trait in a LONG time. Like I’ve been saying this defense won’t be this good next year so quit with the hand wringing on this defense and enjoy it because you’re going to be doing lots of hand wringing next season.

Before I get into the analysis can we PLEASE stop assuming when a defensive player goes down he’s faking it? Every time a Tennessee player went down someone in my section was yelling they were faking. Even before they carted their guy off people were yelling he was faking. Uh, he went off on a stretcher. That’s one hell of a fake. We’re not even running a true up tempo offense right now so Tennessee had ZERO incentive to fake injuries because they were already missing three starters on defense. When you’re injured you have to sit out a play. They weren’t faking. The rules allow a defense time to make substitutions based on offensive substitutions so you don’t see the amount of faking you used to see. The worst was I heard an impromptu yell while a Tennessee player was on the ground. That’s completely classless. I would love to think Aggie fans are better than that but maybe not. The MOST important thing that should come out of every game is every player leaves without any kind of injury. Please have some respect when people are down on the field. If we’re running true up tempo and an opponent’s player goes down repeatedly then it can be questioned. But please don’t boo or yell at a player down on the field just because you think they’re faking it. I don’t want Kyle Field turning into a place that’s not respectful of the opposing players when they’re injured and it sure got close on Saturday. We’re not the idiots in Austin. At least I hope not.

The Wrecking Crew:

I’m starting with the defense this time mainly to drive home the work these guys did. Statistically at the end of the game they look liked crap. I mean utter crap. Evidently we witnessed the defense that gave up the most yards ever in an Aggie football game. That’s insane because for the 3 quarters and then in 2 overtimes I saw a damn dominant defense. At the end of the first half we were up 21-7 and at the end of the 3^rd quarter the score was 28-14. I mean that’s REALLY respectable. Damn respectable. That’s where I wrestle with Tennessee played better than A&M and we got lucky to get a win. For 3 quarters we soundly beat Tennessee mainly thanks to our defense. We really did.

Tennessee was 0-7 on third down conversions to start the game. They didn’t convert one third down the entire first half. Say what you want but that’s DAMN impressive. They wound being 6-17 for the game which means they were 6-10 in the second half which isn’t so impressive. I don’t know the exact stats but I’m assuming at least 4 of those came in the 4^th quarter.

We clearly melted down in the 4^th quarter giving up 21 points and everybody forgets what this defense did for 3 quarters. We won 3 quarters and OT and Tennessee won the 4^th quarter. So did Tennessee really play better than us? I don’t think so. I think Tennessee just got really hot in the 4^thwith some REALLY great play calls and our defense was too slow to adjust. Most of those play calls were screens that took advantage of aggressiveness and pressure along with crossing routes that took advantage of the pressure our linebackers and safeties were applying. We were leaving the middle of the field wide open for crossing routes. It was some really great play calls by Tennessee. We probably should have gone to a much more conservative defense but that’s not how Chavis rolls. He likes to bring pressure. I don’t like what happened in the 4^th at all but it’s hard to fault these guys for how they played for 3 quarters and the overtime. They were truly dominant for 45 minutes of the game and then the same thing in overtime. I can’t fully explain the 4^th quarter melt down other than solid play calling by Tennessee and execution by a pretty talented team.

There are two things I can fault this defense for and the first time I’ve seen it all season. The tackling was TERRIBLE. I mean just terrible. I don’t know if it was because Tennessee is the best team we’ve played athletically all year or something else but this defense was not bringing Tennessee players down like we’ve done with other teams. It was really noticeable. The other terrible thing by this defense was the defensive ends playing in place of Myles Garrett were biting on the zone read really bad. So much so Dobbs got some pretty nice runs when there shouldn’t have been anything there. On the zone read the defensive end is left alone and the QB makes the decision to leave the ball with the running back or pull it and run outside if the defensive end is crashing. Usually there’s not much help out there so if the QB sees the defensive end crash and pulls the ball he’ll get a decent gain. Dobbs was doing that repeatedly so I don’t know why our defensive ends kept crashing as they need to stay home and be disciplined. I think it was just a case of those back-up defensive ends being excited to make plays and forgetting what should have been disciplined football.

Speaking of defensive ends I have no clue what was going on with Myles Garrett. Early in the game he was playing on passing downs but then he kind of went away for the most part and then showed up in the 4^th quarter and played basically the rest of the game. He was even in on a punt return in the 4^th quarter. If he was hurt why was he in a punt return? I don’t get why we’d even expose him to special teams. Either way I’m not sure why they handled him like they did. Maybe they realized they finally needed him in there later in the game but it’s kind of head scratching how he was handled. I will say when he finally did go full time in the 4^th quarter he looked solid. He wasn’t his normal dominant self but Tennessee was focused on him and Myles was pushing their tackle around. In VERY limited action he still got 1 sack and a tackle for a loss. I hope he’s fully healthy going into the Bama game as he’s a flat out game changer. Even injured he helped stabilize a defense late in the game.

As for the rest of the defense the guy who stood out the most was Armani Watts. Watts is such a baller. I mean flat out baller. The dude took the ball away from a guy that was about to walk into the end zone again. He just clean stripped it from the guy and held it. He just does that time and time again. It’s amazing. Obviously he got the game saving interception which looks like a bad throw by Dobbs but if you watch Watts on that play he had great anticipation knowing where it was going. He was playing the ball and not the receiver because he knew where it was going. His instincts are uncanny. I questioned if he was going pro after this season but there’s no doubt in my mind he’s gone. I think he’s a first round draft pick. He should be an All-American based on how he plays. I once thought Evans was better but Watts is the better all-around safety and it’s not even close at this point. That’s not a knock on Evans at all but Watts is just better.

The other guy that stood out the most was Shaan Washington. That dude seems to be coming into his own right now. I really feel like he’s gotten better each week where he’s now a legit SEC linebacker. Alaka looked decent but Washington is clearly our best linebacker right now and I don’t think it’s close. I’m not sure how many plays Tyrel Dodson got but he had some really solid plays. He’s a true freshman but I think he’s going to be a really solid contributor the next 2-3 seasons. I doubt he goes pro early but the kid looks like a baller as a true freshman. Nobody really stood out from the linebacker position as the lack of tackling was really bad.

The defensive line didn’t get as much pressure as it usually does but it wasn’t bad at all. Dobbs wasn’t holding on to the ball very long but we still wound up with 4 sacks and 5 QB hurries on 47 pass attempts. Keke, Henderson, Walker, Mack, and even Chevis did they usual thing of just consuming blocks for a big part of the game. Henderson and Mack each got ½ a sack each. Hall had a pretty solid game bringing pressure from his side as he wound up with ½ sack but most importantly he had 4 QB hurries. Even though I griped about the other defensive ends biting on the zone read when they shouldn’t have, Dobbs only wound up with 57 yards of rushing with a long run of 33 so he wasn’t gashing us on the zone read. As usual the defensive line was the strongest part of our defensive effort.

Not much more to say about Watts and Evans as they wound up being the leading tacklers on the team along with each having an interception. I don’t know what more you could want out of these two. Donovan Wilson was tied for 4^th on the team in tackles so all our safeties do is produce. At corner I actually thought Harvey and Willis played really well. Probably their best game yet. Dobbs threw for 400 yards but 160 of them were to their running back so I can’t fault our corners for those yards. I mean that’s 40% of their passing yards right there. They didn’t get burned deep as the longest pass was for 43 yards and the rest were under 27. All of the passing yards just seemed to be screen plays to the running back and then crossing routes late in the game. As much as I love Chief that’s really on him for not adjusting to a Tennessee OC that was clearly calling great plays against an overly aggressive defense that wasn’t watching for certain plays.

I know people want to rail on the Wrecking Crew for the total yards and the defense at the end but I just can’t. For three quarters they played stellar football and I contend had our offense taken better advantage of the turnovers the defense got then everyone is talking about what an amazing game the Wrecking Crew played. I’m not totally putting it on the offense but the offense did need to do more in the second half when the defense was giving them the ball. I know Tennessee had 7 turnovers but a lot of those were caused by us and most importantly we got to the ball. There was one fumble late in the game where the running back fumbled it and Dobbs tried to pick it up rather than run with it to which he bobbled it and we jumped on it. We have to give credit to our defense for being around the ball and jumping on it rather than trying to be a hero. Just jump on the ball. Fundamentals. The Wrecking Crew just makes plays when they have to. It doesn’t look like the Wrecking Crew of old but like I’ve said time and time again this ain’t the Southwest Conference. We need to clean up our tackling but these guys play their asses off and make plays when they have to. We now have two 2 OT wins where the defense held the offense to a field goal in the first OT and then didn’t let the other team score a TD when they had to in the second overtime. That’s pretty damn solid.

Offense:

Not sure where to begin here. Do I start with Knight or Williams? I’ll start with Williams. Except for ONE play this guy was amazing. I mean flat out amazing. 217 yards on 28 carries averaging almost 8 yards a carry. That’s unreal for a true freshman that wasn’t touted like an Adrian Peterson, Fournette, or any of those Georgia running backs. This dude has essentially been carrying this offense since the Auburn game. He really has. He’s the biggest difference maker on this offense and it’s not even close. He’s come so far since his first game when I honestly thought Keith Ford was the better back. Williams’ vision is his secret. The dude is so good at anticipating things and adjusting before it happens. He knows when to cut and when to be patient. This was his 4^th SEC game and he hasn’t been denied the end zone in any of them. When he gets to the second level he’s really dangerous but watching him he’s so good at getting beyond the line. He sees the whole develop and knows to accelerate or do a jump cut and go. Then when he’s on the second level he doesn’t go down with contact and constantly adjusting while going forward. I don’t know who he looks like to be honest. It’s a rare combination I haven’t seen in a long time. Maybe more like Ladanian Tomlinson more than anyone but I think Williams is bigger. He’s just amazingly fluid in doing it that it looks effortless. He obviously had the fumble at the end of the game. If he scores or gets tackled that game is over and never goes to overtime. It’s hard to fault him for what happened because of his effort the entire game but hopefully he learned a lesson you don’t ever give up until you cross the goal line including protect the ball. Still, this guy has carried this offense to 4 straight SEC victories so I’m not going to get on him about anything. He’s going to be a BIG reason why we win 10 or 11 games in the regular season as opposed to just 9 if we wound up with 10 or 11.

Good ol’ Trevie Knight. At this point he is who he is. He was a dead flat 50% passer with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. That’s about as half good and half bad as it gets. But the damn kid can flat out run. I mean flat out run like you wouldn’t expect. If he didn’t have his legs I think we’d be miserable with him as our quarterback but if he gets a seam up the middle on the zone read and into the secondary the kid has amazing top end speed. It’s actually really amazing to watch as he’ll frustrate you with his passing and decision making through the air but then the next thing you know he found a seam up the middle and he’s prancing untouched into the end zone because no one could catch him. He sucked everyone into being frustrated and then next thing you know he’s in open field showing off his wheels no one expects him to have. All you can do is smile as he crosses the goal line and gives everybody the double gigs. Kid doesn’t get down and just keeps grinding waiting on opportunity to strike. That’s actually a very admirable trait as a quarterback has got to have confidence and persistence.

Watching him pass is just really remarkable because he’s so inconsistent. He’ll have some flat out amazing passes and then have some head scratchers on how the same guy can be so inconsistent. The pass I do like the most although I don’t always agree when it’s called is the deep sideline ball. He’s obviously inconsistent but he hits it enough it’s worth trying and with our receivers it’s likely to not be intercepted. I love that it keeps the defense honest because if they don’t account for it and Knight hits it then it’s a big play. Mazzone tends to do it on second downs where I’m wanting to string along a more consistent drive but it’s worked enough I’m okay with it. Mazzone is trying to hide it between 1^st and 3^rd downs to keep defenses on their toes and to give us another down if it doesn’t hit. It’s worked enough that I can’t really complain but there’s been a drive or two where I just wanted to keep the ball on the ground and move the chain that way. The biggest problem with Knight passing is that his bad passes are so frustrating they outshine the good passes. After every game I can remember a lot more bad passes than I can his good passes but that’s just the way it goes. I’ve also gotten so used to his passes being bad I thought the pass to Kirk in the second overtime was actually picked off the way people dove for it. I was shocked when it was actually caught by Kirk. Sorry for ever doubting you Trevor as I don’t know if it went where it was supposed to but it was between two defenders where only Kirk could catch it. Keep doing what you’re doing as you have more confidence in yourself than any fan does. More often than not it’s worked in everyone’s favor so just be you and we’ll enjoy this ride with you.

I thought the offensive line did fine as usual. Tennessee slowed down our running game it seemed in the late 3^rd and early 4^th quarters but when it mattered most they made holes for Williams to run through and gave Knight time in the pocket late in the game. They weren’t really dominant at all but they only gave up one sack and we had almost 600 yards of total offense so we clearly had time and holes most of the game. I don’t remember any WTF moments like we tended to have 2-3 times last year in a game which is a big positive. There were a couple of penalties that need to get cleaned up and only one high snap on a play I thought we were going to fumble but Knight was able to get into Williams hands for a touchdown. I’d obviously like to see this line keep getting better and better but the end results are about as much as you can ask for considering we had no clue what to expect coming into the seasons. Jim Turner has just done a tremendous job with this group considering this was a major question coming into the season.

As far as receiver goes I still stand by the fact Josh Reynolds is the best receiver on this team and the most underrated receiver in the country. I’m not sure if he plays at the next level but he’s got the speed with decent size that some NFL scout and GM has to watch some film and be giddy at the fact they could take a flier on this guy late in the draft at this point because no one talks about him. He had a tremendous one handed catch that went for over 30 yards. It was just an amazing catch with a defender draped all over him. He had a 15ish yard catch that would have been a clutch 3^rd down conversion but we had a lineman downfield so it came back. That would have pushed him to over 100 yards on the day. He’s not Mike Evans so you can’t just lean on him like we did with Evans but I firmly believe we should use him more often.

Kirk had a nice day as well catching 7 balls for 80 yards and a score. I’m not sure what to think about Kirk at this point. I love the guy and we all know he’s amazingly talented but I’m not sure Mazzone is using him the best way he can. He seems to be using him mainly on the edges on the bubble screens. Kirk is an amazing talent so it seems like we should be using him more in space. I know defenses are keying on him but it just seems we’re not exploiting him as best we can. We love to run him in all kinds of motion but we don’t ever use him in the motion. I keep waiting for us to flip the ball to Kirk as a diversion but we haven’t done it these last few games. Maybe it’s being done to keep defenses honest and read coverage but we’ve never used him of all the times we’ve run Kirk in motion and snapped the ball with him in the backfield. We did do it against UCLA I think but nothing in SEC games. I’d love to see him and Reynolds lined up in a stack and run routes downfield off each other. It just seems he could be much more productive. I’m not down on Kirk at all as he’s producing but I’m just not sure Mazzone is really using him like he should be.

As for the rest of the receivers they didn’t do too much which is pretty disappointing considering Tennessee’s secondary isn’t one of the best we’ll face all year. I know RSJ was out but with the way Tabuyo played last week I was hoping he might be a factor and wasn’t. Speedy had a 27 yard catch but he also dropped a 3^rd down conversion that hit his hands so that was a little disappointing. I know Trevor is an inconsistent passer but this whole squad of receivers except for Reynolds and Kirk just seems to be inconsistent as well. There’s plenty of talent there but they just seem to underachieve. I don’t know if that’s on the receivers themselves or Moorehead as their coach. If he wasn’t our receivers coach next season I wouldn’t be too disappointed as I haven’t see anything come out of that guy in the time he’s been here other than late night Twitter battles.

As for the play calling I’m still not sure what I think of Mazzone. I still believe he’s a play picker and not a true play caller. To me a true play caller is someone that is always setting plays up or sequencing plays to keep drives alive. We were 5-16 on third downs which isn’t great by any stretch and how we’ve been all season. We have to get better at that. I mean it’s actually really terrible as we could be sniffing 50%. The offense is a little too sporadic for me to think he’s always thinking 2-3 plays ahead or knows the perfect time to call a play based on what he anticipates the defense is going to do. He’s not horrible by any stretch as we saw horrible the last two years but we just seem to stall out for periods at a time and can’t sustain drives. We’re a big play offense more than anything else and at some point we’re going to run into a defense that doesn’t allow big plays. I’m looking mainly at LSU and Bama in that regard. It’s why I don’t think this is a playoff caliber team. I do think it’s a borderline Top 10 team because we can hit the big plays but we need more consistency from our offense to sustain drives to truly be an elite level team. This is a really good football team but it’s not elite mainly because our offense can’t sustain consistent drives. That’s on Mazzone.

Special Teams:

Man what a cluster this whole day was. My theory on special teams is unless you truly practice it or are fully dedicated to it like Frank Beamer used to be then it just shouldn’t be noticeable. That wasn’t the case for us on Saturday. We all know about the missed potential game winning kick but there was PLENTY of other issues during the game. Tripucka shanked 3 punts and all in the second half I think. He had some nice points but midway through the game he just seemed to hit a funk where he didn’t connect cleanly on 3 or maybe even 4 punts. He did pin 6 punts inside the 20 so he’s actually really good at that but he can’t be shanking balls. Braden Mann who is our kickoff specialist kicked a ball out of bounds in the 4^th quarter. It wound up not hurting us as I don’t think Tennessee scored on that possession but he can’t be kicking the balls out of bounds. He just can’t. Boom it out of the back of the end zone and be done. The 12^th Man did make an awesome hit on a kickoff to cause a fumble we recovered so that was solid. According to the stat sheet on 12^th Man.com we didn’t return one punt or kickoff which I guess is right but Tennessee punted 6 times so I guess we just fair caught each one that didn’t get downed or go in the end zone.

My take on our special teams right now is we’re not going to win any games with special teams so we need to make sure we don’t lose any games because of special teams. No shanked punts, no kickoffs out of bounds, or mis-handling of the ball. I do have to give LaCamera credit as he was perfect with extra points and after missing the 38 yarder to win the game he hit the 34 yarder to tie the game and send it to the second overtime. It’s good to see a kid put a major miss behind him and come back with confidence. Still, hit the field goals in regulation and let’s avoid overtime all together!

Make no mistake that was a damn fine win on Saturday. Any of the Aggie teams in the last 3 years would have lost that game. There’s no doubt in my mind. That win puts as at 9 wins minimum and I think we actually win 10 games splitting one of the Ole Miss or LSU game. It’s possible we win both of those but I still need to see more of each of those teams to figure out who they are. It’s possible we go into Bama and win that game but we’re going to need lots of help or Trevor to channel the Trevor that beat Bama in the Sugar Bowl. In fact now that I think about it I’d love for Sumlin to tell Mazzone to roll the dice and create some plays we haven’t ran all season. We have two weeks to prepare and nothing would excite me more than to see us come out with stuff Bama hasn’t seen all season. It’s what I wanted Spav to do last year which he clearly didn’t.

I might do a more in depth analysis of us vs Bama next week after watching Bama and Tennessee this weekend. It really couldn’t set up any better for us to have a common opponent take on Bama while we take the week off. Ole Miss put up 43 on Bama and Arkansas put up 30 on them so they’re not invincible. Bama scored 48 and 49 points in those games but our defense is clearly better than those teams. I’m not saying we beat Bama but if Sumlin, Mazzone, and Knight realize we’re essentially playing with house money we stand a real chance.

As it is let’s just enjoy this victory over Tennessee and being 6-0 for the first time since 1994. We’ll worry about Bama next week. Oh and if there was a Gameday curse we finally got the sucker off our back! Good job Ags!

Chief vs. Gus

For the upcoming matchup with Auburn I got to wondering how Chief and Gus have matched up over the years as DC vs OC/Head Coach. Even as head coach there’s no doubt Gus has his hand on how Auburn runs their offense. Make no mistake Gus likes to run.

I went and looked at their matchups between LSU/A&M and Auburn with Chief and Gus at the helm. I didn’t go back and dig into statistics for each game. I just wanted to see if there was a general pattern and if anyone got the better of the other for the most part.

Here’s the summary of the matchups:

Based on this I’m not sure what to think. Early on it looked like Chief owned Gus with the exception of the year Gus had Cam Newton and even then Chief held that offense to 24 points and LSU only lost by 7. It also appears the home team had an advantage until last season where Gus came in and ran over Chief’s first Aggie defense. All I can really glean from that is Chief got the better of Gus the first four years including Gus’ national championship year as head coach but not the year Gus had Cam. But, Gus has owned Chief their last two match-ups so they’re dead even at 3 to 3.

I like the results the first four times they matched up but man the last two times really make you scratch your head if Chief now struggles against Gus. Is that what we should expect this Saturday? I honestly don’t know. I like to think based on this defense Chief can shut down Gus’ desire to run which you know Gus is going to want to do.

In looking at Auburn’s two games this year they struggled to run against Clemson only getting 87 total rush yards and then blew it open against Arkie St. rushing for 462 yards. They threw for 244 passing yards against Arkie St for a total of 706 total yards with 1 fumble. Surprisingly enough they passed for 178 yards against Clemson but 262 total yards is pretty anemic.

Looking at the Clemson game in more detail Clemson’s defense definitely shut down Auburn’s offense. In addition to the anemic total yards Auburn also had 3 turnovers with one interception and fumble being on failed 4^th down conversions. Gus was swapping QBs in and out this game which he didn’t do against Arkie S. That seemed to make the offense take off against Arkie St. so maybe their performance against the Clemson D isn’t an indicator of what a strong defense can do to this offense.

I just don’t know what to think of all that Chief vs Gus so let’s look at some other stuff. Offensively Clemson rushed for 151 yards with 248 passing for a total of 399 total yards but turned the ball over twice. Still, comparing yards and turnovers for that game I’m scratching my head how it was a 19-13 game with Auburn firing at the endzone at the end of the game to potentially win. Clemson should have walked away with that game.

Making it even more head scratching Auburn was 3-17 on 3^rd down conversions against Clemson. That’s an EIGHTEEN percent conversion rate. EIGHTEEN percent. Now, they were 3-5 on 4^th down conversions which is pretty impressive so basically that means they were 6-17 on those third down conversions but that’s still only 35% which is pretty bad. Crazy enough if Gus had kicked field goals on the 4^th downs they didn’t convert the game likely goes to overtime if they don’t win it in regulation.

In looking at the drive charts it looks like Auburn had field position for much of the game. Gus was gambling on those 4^th downs as I’m guessing he felt he needed a TD and couldn’t rely on field goals to win the game. I guess he didn’t trust his defense. Odd choices that ultimately cost him a chance at a Top 10 win to open the season. Still, it’s a head scratching game because I don’t know if Auburn played smart considering their competition keeping it close or Clemson just couldn’t get it going.

With that, my thoughts are Kevin Sumlin needs to channel his inner RC Slocum and rely on the run and his defense. I’m not sure if Sumlin has this in him to be honest. Sumlin loves receiving the ball to open up the game but if I’m him I want Auburn to have the ball first. I want to see what my defense can do against Auburn to dictate what I do offensively. If the Aggie defense can hold Auburn to a punt and even better a straight three and out on the first series then I can go conservative on offense. I tell Chief and the D to focus on stopping the run and let Auburn try to pass. Don’t over pursue and hold your lanes and assignments. Have seven guys holding the line of scrimmage and not worried about sacks or tackles for a loss.

Tell the safeties play smart on play actions and movement as we’ll need them to help our corners this game. Auburn will throw the ball at some point so don’t suck up too soon. It goes against what our safeties are best at in supporting the run but we’ll need them to be real safeties against the pass. They’ll still need to do their normal thing of bringing the wood if runners do get beyond the linebackers. Evans and Watts are going to be a big key to what we do diagnosing run or pass correctly. Basically our safeties better not be moving forward unless the ball is beyond the line of scrimmage or it’s a designed blitz obviously. We need to see if our front 7 can slow down or even stop Auburn’s running attack as when the safeties start cheating forward to defend the run Auburn will pop a big pass and we can’t have that. They have to stay disciplined to look to help our corners and not let anyone deep on a play action pass.

Now if Auburn wants to go pass over run and we need to get in a track meet then we’ll get in a track meet with our receivers but I’ll be damned if Auburn is going to run on us like they did last year. Gus likes to run and we’re not going to let them. I don’t trust his QBs against our secondary without establishing the run. Give them some yards through the air but don’t let them rip off long runs against us because that’s what Gus lives for. If Gus gets that you’re dead as he’ll punish you with play action for over compensating against the run. Focus on shutting down the run by staying in lanes and not over pursuing and make Auburn pass in true passing situations. They’re going to get yards but let’s keep them contained on the ground.

Offensively assuming our defense can do what I think they can against the run then I give Auburn a taste of their own medicine. I want to establish the run between the tackles. It’ll be pretty boring and unlike what Sumlin likes to do but it’s what I’d do. It may take a while but I want to show Auburn we’re fully committed between the tackles. Once that’s established then use a lot of play action in the second half to open it up assuming Auburn starts committing to the run. With our interior line I think we can establish the same 3.4 yards per carry that Clemson got against Auburn if not better. If we do that and Chief’s defense holds against Auburns desire to run then we’ll walk away with this game in the second half thanks to play action.

Keep the first half fairly ugly from an offensive and scoring standpoint letting the defenses slug it out. There’s no need to get in a track meet this game unless Auburn dictates that. Maybe Gus opens it up from the get go but I don’t see that happening. He’s going to want to establish the run and pass off that. If we need to adjust then we’ve shown we can apply pressure on the QB but we need to go in focused on shutting down the run through discipline and establishing the run ourselves. Sumlin needs to be having breakfast with RC every morning this week getting advice. Don’t let Knight make any mistakes in the first half and if the flow of the game allows it then let him make plays in the second half to see if we can pull away.

Basically this game is going to come down to head coaching. Gus is going to do what Gus does trying to establish the run and hoping Sumlin wants a semi track meet. Gus’ defense will get off the field if we’re continually looking at 3^rd and 6s because we missed passes on 1^st and 2^nd down. If that happens it works in Gus’ favor based on the Clemson game.

Sumlin needs to do what Mike Sherman didn’t do against Texas in 2011 by trusting his defense and not let his QB make mistakes by keeping the ball on the ground. If Sumlin sees this whole game with his defense and offense working to complement each other then I think this is A&M’s game no doubt. If Sumlin allows his offense and defense to work independently then Gus will own Sumlin this game. It’ll come down to players making plays but it’s up to the head coach to decide the scheme and flow for the game. The loser of this game will be coaching for his life for the rest of the season which makes it hard to predict to a degree. One dog might be crazy enough to try something different and if the other coach is not expecting it then that other coach could be hosed.

Does Gus have tricks up his sleeve? I don’t think so. I think Gus plays Gus hoping Sumlin plays Sumlin so it’s basically a repeat of the Clemson game but Gus doesn’t make the same mistakes on his side rotating QBs and gambling on 4^th downs when a field goal can be had. I hope Sumlin plays a little more RC like and gives Gus a taste of his own medicine on the ground believing his defense contains Auburn running game. We’ll see what kind of coach Sumlin is this week as he walks in with the better overall team. Coaching makes the difference here.

I like to think Chief is going to get the best of Gus and with that the Aggies are going to win a close 23-19 game. That seems odd as Gus doesn’t like kicking field goals but if it’s a close game I think he doesn’t repeat his mistake against Clemson. I expect to see something like a 10-6 Aggie lead at half time where A&M scores on a play action deep ball to Reynolds or Kirk and the other points are just field goals due to a defensive battle. If that’s the score at half then the Aggies will prevail. If a semi track meet has broken out and Auburn is grinding yards on the ground then I’m not so hopeful.

For now, I’m hoping those morning breakfasts with RC make Sumlin see the light for this game. Speaking of, our hotel is next to a Waffle House this weekend. It doesn’t get any more SEC than that!

Thoughts From the UCLA Game

First off, despite the Aggies blowing a 15 point fourth quarter lead, that was a damn solid win. As we saw on Saturday a lot of good teams lost games they probably shouldn’t have. You hate the minor collapse but you have to love the fact a win was had. That’s a really good UCLA team and probably the best team A&M has opened against since Florida in 2012. Lots of areas to work on but a win is a win. Take it and move on down the road.

Offense:

I like a LOT of what I saw on the offense on Saturday except for two things – the QB play and play calling. I’ll get to those two negativess in a bit as I want to hit on the positives first. I thought the offensive line played pretty solid. Not great but they looked better than last year as a unit. The interior of the line looked MUCH better than last year. It’s only one game but I think this line can be serviceable. This line appears much better than last year. We lost our starting left tackle but Koda Martin actually looked pretty decent in Gennesy’s place. He wasn’t dominant by any stretch but he did a decent job of engaging and staying with their defensive end much of the time he was in there. I was worried when Gennesy went out but Martin did okay and held his own. With Turner as their coach I have faith this unit gets better and better along with having some depth.

I LOVED our running back tandem of Keith Ford and Trayveon Williams. I don’t want to diss Tra Carson as that dude was all heart last year but this tandem is a BIG step up. Those two guys have a burst and run angry not shying away from contact. They’re not the top RBs in the country by any stretch but they’re very serviceable and better than what we had last year. I’ll take that.

Our receivers are exactly the same as last year and that’s not a bad thing. Josh Reynolds is probably the most underrated receiver in the country. I’m not kidding. He might be the best receiver on this squad including Kirk. RSJ still has issues with his hands at times. Kirk didn’t see the ball enough in my book but we know how good he can be. He’ll get his at some point. Speedy comes back next week and can’t wait to see if he’s progressed like has been said. No issues here at all but would like to see these guys utilized a lot more.

Now for the negatives – I know everybody loves Trevor Knight because he looks and talks the part but in this game he reminded me of another Aggie quarterback in Stephen McGee. I know everyone loves McGee because he looks and talks like Aggieland Central Casting would want in a quarterback but McGee really wasn’t all that productive if you watched him objectively. McGee had horrible pocket awareness and I saw a LOT of that from Knight on Saturday. There were at least 5 times where a pocket was forming for Knight to step up into but instead he kept going backwards. I’ve always felt pocket presence is something that’s either there or not and can’t really be coached. For a 5^th year senior in college I’m not sure if Knight is going to develop it at this point. It’s really important he have faith in his pocket, step up, and find an open receiver quickly. He’s athletic but he’s not athletic enough to be a great scramble QB when the pocket breaks down. He needs to step up with his eyes down field and find the open man and hit him or run for whatever gain he can get. Going backwards is never a good thing.

In the end Knight was very serviceable on Saturday and helped us get the win but if his play had been a little more stellar we would have won walking away. Some of that is on Mazzone as I’ll get to in a bit. I still contend Trevor Knight is not going to win us any ball games. The best he can do is not let us lose any games. He’s got to be careful with the ball and most importantly aware of his limitations as a pocket passer. He wasn’t terrible at all but he was the Trevor Knight that got beat out by Baker Mayfield last season. I hope he can improve but once again he’s a 5^th year senior so you really wonder how much improvement is there. Even just a little bit would likely mean another win on the season.

As for the play calling, 2 quarters I loved and 2 quarters I didn’t. The first four series seemed to basically focus on pass, run, pass, run. We did nothing on any of those series and I was wondering if Mazzone was just trying to figure out what he had as on the fifth series he started combining pass and run and we moved the ball down the field. In the second and third quarter we moved the ball up and down the field and then in the 4^th quarter we just went stagnant with conservative and predictable play calling. The proverbial taking the foot off the gas if you will. I don’t know if that was an order by Sumlin or he was just trying to protect Knight from making a mistake. At least it’s better than Spav as I hated his play calling for all 4 quarters. Hopefully after watching the film and realizing what he has from an actual game he’ll make some adjustments. I loved the up tempo stuff so hopefully we keep developing that.

The two stats I HATED from an offensive standpoint were we only converted 4 or 5 third downs in 15 attempts. That’s pathetic. Absolutely pathetic. The other is UCLA won time of possession by a pretty wide margin. With our defense that shouldn’t happen. Our defense has shown they can get off the field so our offense has to do a better job of staying on the field via third down conversions. We improve third down conversion and our time of possession goes up and we limit the other offense’s opportunities which results in more wins. It’s really as simple as that.

Defense:

For 3.5 quarters and an overtime period our defense was flat out nails. That’s a great UCLA offense and we held them in check for 3.5 quarters. We did so with our offense turning the ball over twice and not being able to sustain drives to stay on the field. Our defense was on the field more than our offense and that always put your defense in a bind. Had our offense done more in the first and fourth quarter our defense likely doesn’t let UCLA score 15 points to tie the game in the final half of the 4^th quarter. We all want perfection and the Wrecking Crew but in the current college game that was a solid defensive effort due to our offense not being able to stay on the field and score more points.

The defensive line and specifically Mr. Myles Garret brought pressure all game long. Garret’s stats might not have been as gaudy as we want but if you watched him all game that was Garret’s best game by far. For the entire game he brought pressure from where lined up. He played pass and run extremely well and his technique was outstanding. He mixed up edge rushing, bull rushing, and interior spin moves which I don’t recall him doing an entire game last season. Let’s cherish it because I think he’s about to have a Von Miller type final season in Aggieland where it’ll be a while before we have someone like him again. That was also a pretty good left tackle he was going up against.

The rest of the defensive line was solid as well. Hall was bringing pressure from the other side and the interior was bringing pressure all day as well. Most impressive was the stunting and twisting we were doing along the front with the other the DLinemen thanks to Garret commanding so much attention. Our DTs weren’t just firing straight up the field but attacking the UCLA line with multiple looks so they never knew exactly what was going to happen. Lots of athleticism along that defensive line which should prove to be really big as the season wears on.

The linebackers looked solid as well. What was most impressive to me was the amount of playing time they all got and how effective they were for the most part. Alaka, George, Washington, and Dodson all got plenty of PT and to be honest they all looked the same. That’s not a bad thing as we need depth at linebacker more than anything so no one is too burdened. I wouldn’t say anyone truly stood out but they worked well with the defensive line and safeties to bring pressure from all over and maintain their assignments. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with this crew against a run first team like Auburn in a couple of weeks because we were more about pinning our ears back to apply pressure. That’s my only concern of this crew for now.

The secondary outside of a couple of botched plays late in the 4^th looked really good. Watts and Evans brought it all game long along with Wilson when he was in there. The corners looked really serviceable but they’re not lock down corners at this point. If our pressure doesn’t get to the QB they can’t hold all that long. It’s just part of how this defense is built though. I’ll take what I saw as if last year is any indication this crew gets better with each game.

The defensive unit as a whole basically picked up where they left off last season. I’m not kidding in that if I was the Athletic Director I’d go guarantee John Chavis two more years of his salary no matter what Kevin Sumlin thinks. Chief is one of if not the best defensive coordinators in the country and I don’t want him going anywhere.

Special Teams:

Nothing special here other than our punter looked solid. Placekicking is in question. I didn’t really like Evans returning kicks as I want someone with some wiggle. Maybe with Speedy back that changes.

Looking forward I don’t want to get too high or too low after one game. It’s the best opening game win we’ve ever had with Sumlin but lots of work to go. I’m still just really uncertain on Knight. Heart and leadership are not in question but he really was the weakest link of our offense in my mind. What happens when he gets pressured or we can’t establish a running game? I really would like to see the pocket moved with him more or him being more confident in the pocket and looking downfield. His drop back pocket awareness just scares me based on this game and his time at OU.

Mazzone did say in his press conference it’s like a first date where they have to get to know each other. Hopefully that’s true and they both adapt and grow together. If that’s the case then I really like this team.

To be clear this is not a playoff team. At best this is a 10-2 and maybe 11-1 team. I just don’t see us getting past Alabama. I’m not sure Bama goes undefeated in the SEC but after Week 1 it’s very possible they do. They looked that good and the rest of the SEC showed major holes. Bama will likely lose to someone but we’ll lose to Bama and then someone else in a best case scenario. I’m totally okay with 10-2 though. Totally okay with 10 wins.

Auburn looked MUCH better than I ever expected. I’m not as confident about that game anymore. Their defense and their penchant to run the ball will prove to be a major test for us. Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU all look like much more winnable games after Week 1 but there’s lots of football to be played. Let’s wait and see what happens between now and when we play them before moving the needle to a win on those game. For now I’m sticking with 8-4 but I see us trending to more wins than less right now which means we’ll keep Sumlin another year as if he wins nine he’s fine.

Who Controls The Heat on Sumlin’s Seat?

As we enter the 2016 Aggie football season there’s lots of questions if Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat. There is no correct answer at the current moment. The reality is the heat of Sumlin’s seat is controlled SOLELY by him and will be decided this season. If the Aggies win 9 game this season there is no heat. If he wins 7 games then he’s gone and if he wins 8 games it’ll depend on the number of home games he wins. More than likely the LSU game will be the most important. If he loses to Bama, UCLA, Tennessee, and LSU I don’t see how he can survive that but it’s still possible. As long as Sumlin doesn’t get to 4 losses there’s not an ounce of heat but once he hits 4 games then that seat will be hot. It’ll all because of his head coaching ability and nothing else. I’ll do a season prediction as we get closer to the season but this is my analysis of Sumlin and where he stands right now.

Coming into his fifth season at A&M it’s crystal clear what kind of coach Kevin Sumlin is. He’s a CEO coach that’s not going to grind things out. He’s hands off when it comes to the decisions his staff makes for in game preparation and even in game. I have a ton of specific examples but I won’t bore you with them. Buy me a beer and I’ll tell you in great detail. Kevin Sumlin is in the style of coaches like Les Miles, Mack Brown, and Bobby Bowden. They clap a lot and hope to give great speeches but if you ask them exactly what’s going on during the game he’s just watching like me and you. You better hope he can hire a great staff and recruit because he’s not going to have much effect on the actual games himself. That’s not a bad thing but it’s not a great thing either. It’s possible Sumlin can win a National Championship but he’s only as good as his staff and recruiting momentum. I’d actually be fine if he turned into Miles, Brown, and especially Bowden as all of those guys have a National Title to their name and I want that feeling just once before I die. Just once.

He’s not in the class of coaches like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, and Gary Patterson who are guys that flat out grind it out during the season making decisions that influence his coaching staff in weekly preparation and in game decisions. I think Jim Harbaugh will join this group as well but let’s give him one more year at Michigan to make sure. I also think Tom Herman will join this class one day but let’s also give him one more year and see where he goes next. If Sumlin falters and Herman has another great season at UH I’d love to see Herman in maroon but let’s not worry about that right now.

Sumlin will never join that list of elite names because it’s not who he is. He’s not interested in the details of the day to day grind for game planning and in game coaching. He wants to be popular and celebrate leaving it up to those below him to make things happen. That’s not necessarily a bad thing but if he doesn’t hire right or loses recruiting momentum then he’s toast because he doesn’t have the ability to directly reverse course by himself.

Sumlin got to this whole make or break season because of hiring decisions he made. When Kingsbury left he promoted someone with no experience calling plays in Clarence McKinney. When McKinney didn’t work out he repeated the process in hiring Jake Spavital. Don’t even get me started on Jake Spavital. When year 1 of Jake Spavital didn’t work out Sumlin fired his offensive line coach and brought in Dave Christensen. That went even worse as Christensen was a HORRIBLE offensive line coach and Spavital was his usual horrible self. A decision made by Sumlin made things WORSE. So in the 3 years post Kingsbury Sumlin just TOTALLY botched his offensive staff. I mean just TOTALLY botched it. He made $5 million a year to make these stupid decisions. $5 million a year and he’s hiring inexperienced offensive coordinators. That’s on him.

While Sumlin was promoting Boy Wonder Jake Spavital, Nick Saban lost two games in a row to go 11-2 in 2013 and sent his offensive coordinator away. Seriously. He told his OC in an 11-2 season to get lost. He then hired Lane Kiffin as his OC and won the SEC two years in a row including a National Championship. He had no real relationship with Kiffin but remembered how tough it was to coach against his offenses despite the reputation of Kiffin at the time. See the differences in how these coaches operate? Saban isn’t about relationships. He’s about results on the field because he knows if he wins everything takes care of itself. Saban is focused on the field. Sumlin is focused on the lights off the field.

On the defensive side of the ball Sumlin held on to Mark Snyder one year too long. He probably shouldn’t have hired Snyder in the first place but Snyder wasn’t really as bad as Aggies fans made him out to be. Snyder was an above average coach but when paired with Sumlin’s below average OC hires after Kingsbury it made him look that much worse. Snyder was a tremendous DC his first year getting the most out of a lot of guys that weren’t the most talented but had a ton of heart. Snyder deserves credit for that 2012 defense but when the guys with heart left then Snyder was hosed. He made some HORRIBLE personnel decisions two years ago and I really feel Sumlin should have stepped in and guided him. I won’t name player names but there’s a certain position in the middle of the field that clearly wasn’t able to perform in the position but he kept getting run out there until it was painfully obvious. Sumlin then had to pull the old “every position will be evaluated” technique in the middle of the season. A great coach NEVER says that because they anticipate that coming before it gets there and makes adjustments. $5 million a year to make those decisions when it’s painfully obvious what’s going on. FIVE MILLION AMERICAN DOLLARS and midway through the season we have to re-evaluate everything because we’re getting our ass kicked. $5 million to reshuffle the cards.

As much as I’d love to see Tom Herman in maroon because I do think he’s going to join the likes of Saban and Meyer I REALLY want to see Sumlin win 9 games or more this year and keep his job. I absolutely LOVE the current staff he has for a guy like Kevin Sumlin. I mean LOVE. I’ll take John Chavis over any defensive coordinator in the country. Hands down without a doubt. That dude is a grinder.

I know Aggie fans felt we gave up too many yards on the ground last season but the reality is our defense played well enough to win EVERY game last year. I’m not kidding. Even against Alabama we held them to 20 points on offense. They didn’t score a touchdown beyond 5 minutes in the second quarter. Derrick Henry gashed us for 20 minutes but Chavis made adjustments and kept him contained. Chavis’ in game adjustments were just remarkable all season. Go back and watch the games and while we did give up some big runs on occasion for the most part our defense stopped opposing offenses when it mattered. Boy Wonder Spavital just couldn’t get his stuff together to respond when the defense gave the offense an opportunity to win the game. I don’t put that on Chavis. I hate Jake Spavital. Seriously. What a failure.

The Wrecking Crew is never coming back. Football has evolved where offenses are going to score points. Even Nick Saban has learned this which is why he’s adapted. If you think we can field a defense that holds quality opponents under 300 yards and 14 points you’re fooling yourself. It ain’t happening anymore. John Chavis coaches a defense that attacks and adjusts to make stops when it counts. That’s all you can ask for and he’s better than anyone in the college game in my mind. Most importantly he’s not going anywhere. As long as Sumlin is coaching A&M so is Chavis as long as we keep paying him. I don’t want to lose that so I want Sumlin to succeed this season. Think Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips.

Offensively it took 3 years but Sumlin seems to have finally gotten it right. We’ll have to see how this season goes for Noel Mazzone but I like his experience. If we win 9 games that tells me he’s a solid enough offensive coordinator to compete at an elite level year in and year out. Even more than Mazzone I absolutely LOVE the hire of Jim Turner. This guy is a flat out grinder when it comes to the offensive line. He consumes himself when it comes to the offensive line in recruiting, technique, and motivation. It’s no surprise what’s happened to our Oline recruiting since he got hired. I think he’s the best offensive line coach in the country. He loves Aggieland and likely never leaves if he has anything to do with it. Offensive success begins and ends on the offensive line and I love having Turner handling that component of our offense. He and Mazzone should combine to be a really good offensive tandem.

More than likely this will be Mazzone and Turner’s toughest year on offense. Our QB is unproven and our offensive line has some holes. Yes, Trevor Knight is unproven. If Mazzone and Turner can get 9 wins or more things get easier next season as Turner adds talent and depth on the offensive line. QB will once again be in question next year but year 2 with an offensive coordinator and better line makes things a lot easier to manage. And just like Chavis, Mazzone and Turner are lifers at their positions so they’re not going anywhere as long as Sumlin is successful and we keep paying them.

I’d love to see nothing more than a band of Sumlin on vocals, Chavis on lead guitar, Mazzone on bass, and Turner banging the drums rocking Aggieland for years. It’s very possible but it’s going to take 9 wins to do it or 8 wins with major wins at Kyle to keep these guys around. 7 wins or less and some of them are going to have to find a new band to get gigs. They won’t be booked in Aggieland next season.

If Sumlin only wins 7 games then buy him out and head down Highway 6 to 290 and get Tom Herman and be done. If Sumlin isn’t the answer then I’d love to see Herman, Chavis, and Turner rocking in a new band in Aggieland. If not Herman then I’d be fine with Chad Morris to rock out with Chavis and Turner. All I know is for the first time in 4 years Sumlin has a staff he can win with and I want him to. If he can’t croon some chart toppers this year it won’t be because of the guys behind him. It’ll all be on his high dollar vocals not making it and he’ll never figure it out.

So who controls the heat on Sumlin’s seat? He does! He does!

Thoughts From the Games

Thoughts from the Games
Florida, SMU, and SC State

I’ve been holding off writing this again because the new gig has been taking up a lot of time but mainly I didn’t know what the hell I was looking at with this Aggie team. An amazing first half against Florida followed by an offensive turd in the second half. The turd continued through the first quarter against SMU before getting flushed. Then we struggle in the first couple of series against SC State before really opening it up. Through it all I feel like I started seeing what’s going with this team.

The La. Tech Game:

I’m still torn on if the lack of the La. Tech game has hurt us or helped us. As we get further along I think it’s actually helped us. They’re a good team and there’s a good chance we would have gotten beat as our offense would have struggled being on the road for the first time. Make no mistake we came out against Florida on emotion and surprise due to our first game in the SEC. I honestly can’t think of a time when campus and Kyle was fired up for a 2:30 game like that. There were a couple of the OU games in the early 2000s that had a 2:30 start and Kyle was rocking but they’re few and far between. I can’t help but think that carried over to the team and that’s part of the reason we jumped out to a great start.

Plus, with the element of surprise Florida had no idea what to look for offensively. Had they had film of us against La. Tech I think you might have seen our offense struggle the entire game as we’ll get to in a bit. I really do think we might have lost to both La. Tech and Florida had we played that game. As it stands I think we can now go into Shreveport and win that game and the result of the Florida game would have been the same and maybe even actually worse. We lost that Florida game but we all walked out of there thinking we could in fact compete against SEC teams. Let’s not underestimate the result of that. So, I think we dodged a bullet not playing La. Tech as this season is shaping up.

Offense:

I think we’ve all figured out what happened in the second half of the Florida game. I remember noticing it in the game and the quotes after confirmed it. Florida stopped sending their backers and just relied on their front four to apply pressure. That eliminated the open lanes due to over pursuit that our running backs and Manziel were able to exploit in the first half. Since that change our running game has been non-existent. Sadly, I think it’s going to continue that way until we start hitting passes down the middle of the field to pull linebackers from attacking the line of scrimmage or implement a true tight end or fullback.

What happened on Saturday night confirms what I believe as we couldn’t establish a rushing attack against a much inferior front 7. If we can’t establish a running game against this crew even without CMike we’re not going to do it against anyone. Much like Florida, SC State implemented the same scheme against the run. The used their front four to engage our offensive line and then the backers would simply scrape and fill holes. Not aggressively but basically seeing the same thing that the running back on the other side is seeing. The end result is their backers and our running backs are meeting at the LOS. I watched the SMU game on TV so it’s hard to tell but I’m guessing we did the same because we didn’t start moving the ball until Manziel made plays when the defense broke down on the ground and he was able to exploit it through the air in addition to his running. Other than Manziel we really didn’t have a running game against SMU either. Not good.

The reason this is happening this year and not last year is because we don’t have a true TE or fullback. What’s essentially happening is that our 5 offensive linemen are engaging the defensive front four leaving the 3 linebackers to fill the hole that’s created. In addition, because there’s no TE the outside linebackers are playing back off the line of scrimmage and just outside the tackles shoulder looking inside to fill those holes between the tackles. Normally they’d be lined up further outside on a TE and much closer to the line of scrimmage trying to avoid being sealed inside on a block. Without the concern of being sealed inside they can play both the inside and outside assuming they read the offense correctly.

Certainly our offense line has struggled early on with assignments but on Saturday night against SC State I watched our offensive lineman handle the front four of the defense only to have the LB fill the hole and meet out RB at the line of scrimmage. It’s not the line’s fault as much as it is the scheme’s fault. With a fullback they block the linebacker filling the gap and clear them out or at least engage them so the running back has a chance. It’s simple numbers working against us and no matter how well you execute you can’t block 7 guys with five guys. And they’re obviously going to leave their 7th guy home since we essentially have 2 RBs in the backfield with Manziel. So it’s basic 7 on 7 inside the box and I don’t see it changing if SC State can stymie our running game.

The other reason we’re struggling to establish a running game is we’re asking our lineman to run block without a hand on the ground. Without a hand on the ground it’s harder to keep lower leverage as well as fire out off the ball. Think of why track sprinters launch with their hands on the ground instead of on two feet. It’s much harder for our linemen to displace the defensive line so the best they can do is engage the defender and try and move them a little bit.

With all that I just don’t see us establishing a running game in this offense. At least between the tackles like we’ve seen in the past. What’s really lacking that I think we should be able to do is being able to establish an outside run. I would love to see us do overload sets to one side to see if we could seal an edge. Run some sweeps, screens, and zone reads to see if we can get those OLBs to focus outside more or exploit them if they’re hell bent on helping inside. I’d like to see Christine Michael get involved more in the running game so let’s hope he’s got his head clear and realized he’s costing himself money by doing whatever he’s doing to limit his playing time. He can actually take on a linebacker in the hole and get yards after contact. We’ll find out this weekend hopefully.

At receiver it’s hard to figure out what we have. We all know Swope and EZ but it seems like the staff is trying to figure out what they have in the others. It’s quite clear they’re trying to establish Mike Evans as the outside guy if you leave one on one he’s going to make you regret it. It seems we’ve tried to establish that without success and that’s why we can’t exploit the middle of the field with seam routes that Swope is perfect for. Manziel is also missing a bunch of open guys across the middle. Maybe he’s focused too much on the pocket pressure and not looking down field soon enough for fear he misses the pressure. However, it does seem Manziel is getting more familiar with his receivers as he’s been spreading the ball around the last two games. The receiver rotation has also been a little inconsistent so I’m not sure what all is going on and what we’re trying to accomplish with who. We’ll call the receiving corps a work in progress. There’s certainly talent there but it seems everyone including this coaching staff is still trying to figure who’s who and what’s what.

Alright, let’s get to Johnny Football. The kid is electric no doubt. There’s also little doubt he won’t be able to do what he’s done against SMU and SC State on the ground against our conference opponents. I think we’re going to find out that we played the weakest two teams we have on our schedule so it only gets tougher for Johnny Football from here. He has gotten much better about trying to stay in the pocket and when he scrambles keeping his eyes down the field and throw the ball rather than run. Still, there’s times when space is there and the kid should in fact take off and run. He did it against Florida until they took it away from him and he’ll learn over time as he gets more experience when it’s there and when it’s not. He’s just a work in progress.

Don’t forget ultimate success in college football happens because of one of two things or both. Those things are a suffocating defense and/or an electric player on the offensive side of the ball. You know the defenses of Alabama and LSU and even Florida’s first championship under Meyer but the times those teams haven’t won it you know the names of Vince Young, Tim Tebow, and Cam Newton. Now, I’m not saying Manziel is on the level of those guys but it’s pretty clear to me if you want to win it all you need someone that can transcend the offensive side of the ball if you don’t have a strong defense. Looking back there’s never been a “system” offense to win a National Championship. Oregon tried against a fairly average Auburn defense and couldn’t do it. Even Mike Leach’s vaunted offense often stalled against better defenses which is why he rarely beat Texas or OU and struggled in both Cotton Bowls he made it to with what might have been the SEC’s third or fourth best team.

I say all that in hopes that our offense is evolving from game to game as the coaches and players learn one another. I’d rather see that happen than the coaching staff stand headstrong and try to install their “system.” I’d really like to see Kingsbury evolve beyond what appears to be his “Air Raid” roots at Tech and UH. Nothing against Kingsbury but I’m beginning to see his roots won’t do well week in and week out against the SEC defenses.

As for what happens from here it’s not ideal but I think we can have a run of 3 games against Arkansas, Ole Miss, and La. Tech where can have some learning curves and still win. Now, I’m not saying we can win those games with major hiccups because we can’t but I think we can have some growing pains in those games and still win. Mainly because I think our offensive line is getting more comfortable in this system and receivers are learning what to do when the play breaks down and Manziel is able to extend the play with his legs.

So, in summary we’re not going to establish a running game between the tackles. Because of that let’s hope that Manziel and this coaching staff can learn from each other and craft the offense to the strengths of the talent we have on that side of the ball. It’s our only hope Luke.

Defense:

“The one constant through this season so far, Ray, has been defense. Aggie Football has rolled by like an army of steamrollers remaining competitive because of defense. The Wrecking Crew had been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again by men that go by the names of Fran and Sherm. But defense has marked the time and Aggie fans have waited for its return. Kyle Field, this game, is a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again. Oh people will come, Ray. People will most definitely come.” I adjusted the quote from Field of Dreams to reflect somewhat of how our defense has really carried this team so far. It feels good to have a defense that looks like it knows what its doing and can respond when needed.

Without our defense we get blown out by Florida and probably even play SMU close. Make no mistake this is no Wrecking Crew. Not even close outside of Demontre Moore. Dude is a one man Wrecking Crew so he definitely can be called that but there’s no one else. What this defense is doing is playing assignment football REALLY well. People are executing their assignment which allows all 11 defenders to cover the entire field and line of scrimmage. I think as we get more comfortable with the base defense and continue to execute it in our sleep we’ll see it get more aggressive. Until then I hope Snyder doesn’t change a thing as it’s absolutely marvelous to watch even if it’s not the old Wrecking Crew we know and love.

It’s also not on the level of Bama or LSU simply because we don’t have the athletes but it reminds me a lot of TCU’s defense. Now, don’t get me wrong in that we haven’t played an offensive juggernaut as Florida was very basic on offense, Garrett Gilbert couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, and SC State missed a lot of open receivers or dropped balls that hit them in the hands. However, rarely is a receiver running wide screaming open like we saw with the litany of DCs that came before Snyder. Our LBs seem to understand their gap assignments and not overrun the ball carrier and the DLine understands engaging the OLine to free up others to make plays. Then there’s DeMonster who just wrecks shop all over the field. What’s impressed me the most is not what he’s done in the backfield but his pursuit all over the field. Time and time again he’s making tackles on the sideline simply because he’s pursuing the ball carrier the entire time. He must realize he can get paid like Von one day.

We are weak in a couple of areas and those include screen recognition and runs to the outside. Our defensive line will get sucked in by a screen and our LBs will either be slow to react or get up in the blocking or trash. Florida and SC State both ran some plays to the outside and gained positive yards. I think the weakness on these two things is our focus of not getting gutted up the middle and focusing our attention inside. I hold out faith that as our defense gets more comfortable with base assignments they’ll recognize screens and outside runs quicker and be quicker to react.

Despite how bad they’re playing as a team right now a Tyler Wilson lead offense can move the ball so we’ll find out where this defense really is on Saturday. Let’s hope we’re still proud.

Special Teams:

I have no clue what we have on special teams. No clue at all. We seem to be getting better each week but I’m still not sure as a whole. Our kicker hasn’t seen a tough field goal and he’s 1 of 2 making a 27 yarder and missing a 23 yarder. Doesn’t exactly instill much confidence does it? Epperson punts either like an old man playing golf that hits a shot 120 yards in the air but gets no trajectory so it rolls another 60 yards for a somewhat respectable drive or he punts like those rugby guys that rely on a roll except Epperson isn’t running before kicking. Whatever he’s doing it’s working for the most part so we’ll take it.

As for returns Dustin Harris has looked pretty decent returning punts but let’s be real in that he’s not an explosive returner. He’s got decent straight away speed but he’s no Dante Hall unless he’s jumping the curb and parking on the grass next to Kleberg that we don’t know about. Kick return wise our blocking was TERRIBLE against Florida and we haven’t seen many kicks in the other games thanks to our defense. However, with the new rules we shouldn’t be returning kicks on anything 2 yards or deeper in the end zone. Just take a knee and take it out to the 25 and be done with it. You get caught at the 15 yard line and then stall on a three and out all of sudden you’re behind on field position and that stuff matters.

There are just still a lot of unanswered questions about everything to be honest. Looking forward to Arkansas I’m DEATHLY afraid of this game. Tyler Wilson can still move the ball so they’re going to have the best day of any team against our defense so far. If our offense stalls a few times like it did against Florida we could be looking at being on the short of a shootout. I’d like to think we could win 35-21 but I can also see us losing 28-24 which would result in John L. Smith streaking on Kyle Field. Nobody wants that. Nobody.

If we can in semi-convincing fashion and our offense doesn’t stumble for the most part and our defense can hold Wilson and their offense mostly in check than I think we can go 8-4 with conference wins over Ole Miss, Auburn, and Mizzou in addition to our non-conference games. Arkansas reminds me of A&M last year. In total disarray as a team but there’s still enough talent that if it all clicks then they can beat a lot of people.

I’m somewhere between 8-4 and 6-6 with this team with all the clarity coming over the next three games. When we get to the mid-point of the schedule we’ll have a good idea of what we have despite still having LSU and Bama on the schedule.

R.C. Would Have Gone For 2

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When Aggie Football Was Great

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Thoughts From the Games