Aggie Football

Thoughts from the Arkansas Game

On a picturesque Halloween evening at Kyle Field the Aggies played a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks which help test which kind of Aggie fan you are.  If you’re a glass half full Aggie fan you saw an offense absolutely click and a defense that did plenty to beat Arkansas without worry.  If you’re a glass half empty Aggie fan you saw an offense with no explosive plays and a defense that appeared to struggle for most of the game.

I saw an Aggie team beat an opponent without worry that’s given us fits the last few seasons.  This is an Aggie team that can certainly improve but we’re beating teams in convincing fashion and not even playing a perfect game.  This is a damn good football team.  If you’re not happy with how this team played on Saturday night I can’t help you.  You really should quit watching.

Arkansas came into the game with a great game plan.  They wanted to take away Isaiah Spiller and run an offense that had some surprises hoping to pop a few plays for scores.  It’s exactly what I would have done if I was the Arkansas coaching staff.

It looked like it might work.  The Aggies stumbled after a nice run to start the game by Spiller.  Spiller got stuffed on the following play and the next thing you know the Aggies are punting after 4 plays.  Arkansas then gets the ball and drives 87 yards to go up 7-0.  At that point it was a little concerning the Aggies might not be ready for Arkansas.  The Aggies took the next possession and score tying the game.  The Aggies scored two more times to go up 21-7 and there was never really a concern the rest of the game.  The Aggies would lead 28-14 at half and then 42-17 after the third quarter.

I don’t like the final score of 42-31 as the defense allowed two scores while the offense scored none but the entire fourth quarter was spent making sure that lead didn’t get squandered.  You can complain all you want about the Aggies not putting Arkansas away but the reality is Arkansas was put away after 3 quarters.  Other than the first two possessions of the game the Aggies controlled everything after that.  Don’t let the score fool you the Aggies didn’t put Arkansas away.

This is the type of game that Jimbo loves to play.  Get the offense out in front and let the defense keep the opponent in check never giving up big plays.  There’s nothing wrong with that in the SEC.  Jimbo could have taken a chance to completely bury Arkansas but as it was he took the winning without much worry.  I’m okay with that.

Let’s talk about the units.

Offense:

Offensive Line:

I’m starting with what is now the heart and soul of this offense.  These guys are playing outstanding football right now.  I couldn’t be happier with what they’re doing.

It was clear Arkansas wasn’t going to let the Aggies run over them with Isaiah Spiller.  It didn’t matter.  The offensive did their job and did it well.  The running game wasn’t quite as dominant as it was against Florida and Mississippi State.  It was still REALLY good though.  The Aggies racked up 182 yards on the ground averaging 5.1 yards per carry.  In addition, Kellen Mond had time to throw and wasn’t sacked once.

I don’t know what else I can see about this group.  They’re just outstanding.  If they can keep this up the Aggies are going to run the table and likely find themselves in the College Football Playoff.  I’m dead serious about that.  When you have holes to run through and time to throw your offense will score points against anyone.  The offensive line is just doing outstanding work.

Kellen Mond:

This was Kellen Mond’s best game as an Aggie by far.  He was pretty solid against Florida but he was virtually perfect against Arkansas.  He was 21 of 26 for 260 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.  That’s a completion percentage of 81% and no interceptions.  That’s against a team that had 10 interceptions in 4 games prior to this contest.  They came into Kyle averaging 2.5 interceptions a game and left averaging 2 interceptions a game because Kellen Mond didn’t throw one.

Kellen was just outstanding all night putting balls where they needed to be.  Guys weren’t running wide open either.  There was certainly an element of guys getting separation but Kellen threw some beautiful balls.  His touchdown to Wydermyer was perfect.  Wydermyer certainly had the athletic ability over the Arkansas defender but Mond put the ball where only Wydermyer could get it.  He and Wydermyer are really developing a trust with each other.

In addition to being perfect through the air this was probably Kellen’s best game running the ball.  He only had 6 rushes for 32 yards but he didn’t hesitate when he saw opportunity.  He was just decisive all night through the air and on the ground.  It was refreshing to see him finally play like this the whole game.

While the offensive line is giving him time to throw Kellen appears to have a good timer in his head.  He understands at some point pressure will come so he’s not holding the ball too long waiting for the perfect pass.  He’s trusting the system and play design.  He and the offensive line appear to be working well together.  They understand the amount of time needed to get the ball off.  The offensive line deserves most of the credit for the lack of sacks this season but Kellen does deserve some credit as well.  He’s trusting the pocket and making decisions before pressure finds him.

I’ve seen too much of Kellen to believe this is the Kellen we’ll get the rest of the season.  I’m hoping he won’t fall too far from this place though.  Without a doubt based on five games it does look like Kellen has progressed.  We’ll just have to see where his valley is from here.

Running Backs:

Despite Arkansas committing to slowing him down, Isaiah Spiller had another solid game.  He rushed 21 times for 82 yards but they were hard earned.  He averaged 3.9 yards per carry.  His vision and cutting ability is really outstanding.  His ability to plant and cut makes defenders look silly. 

He’s a true sophomore who looks like a fourth-year senior carrying the ball in the SEC.  He’s just outstanding.  When you can grind out yards despite a defense keying on you it’s really impressive. 

I don’t know what else to say about this guy.  He’s doing for this team what Trayveon Williams did for the 2018 team.  With help from the offensive line he’s just putting this team on his back.

Ainias Smith doesn’t touch the ball much as a running back but he’s the perfect compliment to Spiller.  To use a boxing analogy Spiller is the big right punch the defense keeps looking for.  Smith is that little left-handed jab that doesn’t get thrown very often.  However, when it does it’s effective in surprising the defense.  Smith ran 3 times for 31 yards including a touchdown.  The way Jimbo has been using Spiller and Smith is perfect.

Devon Achane saw his first snaps against Mississippi State.  Against Arkansas he saw 4 carries and made the most of them.  He ripped off a 30-yard touchdown run that didn’t look all that spectacular but it was.  He just hit a hole and then ran straight ahead not letting a defender take him down.  He didn’t throw any major jukes or outrun anyone with his elite speed.  He just hit the hole and ran for paydirt.  Plain, simple, and effective. 

He’s looked good in two brief appearances.  He now has 60 yards on 8 carries for 7.5 yards a carry.  No need to rush him along but he’s offering some good depth.  Let’s hope we just give him 4 rushes a game as that’ll mean Spiller and Smith are healthy.  His time will come.

Wide Receivers:

I wouldn’t define the receiving corps on Saturday night as spectacular but they were certainly REALLY solid.  Wydermyer, Ainias, Chase Lane, and Hezekiah Jones all got fairly equal touches.  Wydermyer was the most dominant catching 6 balls for 92 yards and two touchdowns.  Ainias caught 6 balls for 67 yards and a score.  Chase Lane hauled in 3 balls for 50 yards while Hezekiah Jones caught 5 passes for 47 yards.  Hezekiah should have had 6 catches and at least 60 yards but he dropped an easy ball.  Hopefully he’s just working back from his injury and gets more comfortable catching the ball.

There’s no doubt we all want a dominant go to receiver but Jimbo’s system is working.  We averaged 10 yards per passing attempt on Saturday night.  That’s not 10 yards per completion but 10 yards per passing attempt.  I know we all want the deep ball/big play but if you can average 10 yards every time you throw the ball you don’t need the deep ball.  The defense was focused on shutting down the run and we made them pay through short and immediate routes.

We all want to see what Demond Demas can do but wins are more important.  Let’s not mess with a good thing.  What we have appears to be working.  No need to disrupt it to force the ball to someone who might not be ready.

Overall:

Jimbo seems to have a good feel for what his offense can do.  He also seems to be doing a good job of reading the opponent’s defense.  Against Florida and Mississippi State he just ground them down with the running game.  Against Arkansas he used a balanced attack against someone who was not going to let Spiller beat them.  That’s smart coaching.

He’s not going away from Spiller as he still got 21 carries.  He made sure Arkansas continued to key on him all night by giving him the ball just enough.

The offense appears to be playing with enough understanding and confidence to stay on track.  I don’t see any reason why they won’t.  I’m hoping this offense is like 2018 where they seemed to get a little bit better as the season wore on.

Defense:

I know some people are frustrated with what the defense did on Saturday night.  While there’s some things this defense needs to improve on I think what they’re doing is part of an overall strategy Jimbo has based on their talent.  This defense has two main areas of weakness – 1) Lack of a dominant pass rusher and 2) Inexperienced secondary.

I really think Jimbo and Elko are doing a really good job of understanding the opponent on both sides of the ball and developing a comprehensive game plan. 

Against Florida they ran a lot of base defense not looking to get burned.  Trask carved them up pretty good but they did just enough to win the game.  Against Mississippi state they dropped a lot of guys in coverage but used blitzes at the right time to make Mike Leach’s offense pretty much inept.

Against Arkansas they went back to mainly base defense to make sure they slowed Arkansas down while not giving up the big play.  Arkansas was coming off a bye week and have a pretty solid offensive coordinator in Kendall Briles.  Arkansas gave this defense a bunch of looks they hadn’t seen and tried to attack to some weak points.  Mainly attacking the perimeter with quick pitches. 

Feleipe Franks ran 12 times for 91 yards.  Some of those were designed runs but quite a few were runs were nobody was really open and he had space to run.  He never really burned us on the run despite picking up really good yardage.

I know some people don’t like bend but don’t break defenses but in today’s game of football it’s not a bad strategy at all.  LOTS of defenses are struggling against decent offenses across college football.

The two main statistics I look at by a defense are third down conversions and points surrendered. 

The Aggies were OUTSTANDING on third down conversions as Arkansas only converted 3 of 11 attempts.  That’s 27%.  For 3 quarters the defense only gave up 17 points.  That’s damn good work.

I don’t like the 14 points in the 4th quarter but the defense didn’t want to give up any quick scores where Arkansas felt they had a chance to get back in the game.  Thanks to their efforts through three quarters Arkansas never had a chance to win the game.  The defense deserves a lot of credit for keeping Arkansas out of this game.

There’s area this defense can get better but it’s pretty solid where it is right now.  It seems to be working really well with the offense.

A quick look at the units.

Defensive Line:

Much of the same here but I do want to point out two things:

  1. While they’re missing a true rush specialist they’re doing a pretty good job of applying pressure as a whole unit.  They’re not going to bring immediate pressure but they’re collapsing the pocket so the quarterback doesn’t have forever to throw.  Both Tyree Johnson and Michael Clemons are doing better of getting pressure in passing situations from the outside.  They’re no Myles Garrett but they’re doing a pretty solid job with the lack of blitzes Elko is shying away from.  The only downside is they’re creating running lanes for the quarterback but that’s for the linebackers and safeties to fill and clean up.
  2. DeMarvin Leal is a true leader.  At one point Jayden Peevy was in someone’s face after a play.  Leal coming back into the game from the sideline grabbed Peevy to get him out of the altercation.  The guy is a true sophomore telling a senior to clear his head and not do anything stupid.  It’s little things like this that help a team.  Leal’s physical play is outstanding but his mental game is really impressive for a guy that was playing high school ball two years ago.

Linebacker:

Kind of like the defensive line not much else to say other than Aaron Hansford has been impressive this year.  We don’t miss Anthony Hines one bit.  I think we improved with Hansford on the field.  Hansford is an amazing story of perseverance that every Aggie fan needs to appreciate.  He’s been big for this team.

Secondary:

Like the others where there’s not much to say other than a few items:

  1. Leon O’Neal is so frustrating to watch at times because he pulls some boneheaded moves.  For the most part his play is damn good.  It frustrates me he lets his head get to him at times but he’s playing good ball.  I assume his orange gloves were for Halloween but who knows.
  2. Demani Richardson is the unsung hero of this unit.  We’re in major trouble without him.
  3. Poor Myles Jones had to watch film on Sunday of him missing a Pick Six.  He had the perfect jump and the ball went through his hands.  Great read but you still must make the play.
  4. The targeting call on Antonio Johnson was total BS.  I’m one that is okay with a lot of targeting calls but Antonio didn’t drop his helmet or lower his shoulder.  The flag should have been picked up.  While I’m talking about Antonio it’s clear he’s going to get picked on since he’s a true freshman.  He’s going to have some growing pains but he’s showing some promise.

I think you’re going to see more teams pick on this unit.  It’s a smart play because it’s young and the weakest link of this defense.  We don’t have lock down corners, our safeties get confused in coverage, and we have no dominant pass rush.  However, this unit is light years better than the last two seasons under Jimbo.  It’s got some holes but they’re not nearly as big as they used to be.

Overall:

Until we find a true edge rusher and the young guys in the secondary get healthy and experience this defense isn’t going to be dominant.  I think Jimbo and Elko know that.  With the way the offense is working right now they need to keep doing what they’re doing.  We can win every game left on the schedule with this strategy.  Limit the big plays and get off on third downs.  This defense has shown they can do that under Elko and what they should continue to do.

I still like Elko and this unit all things considered.

Can the Aggies Run the Table:

As of right now the Aggies are playing better than anyone left on their schedule.  The games won’t be easy as there’s some talented teams as well as some road games.  Mond seems to struggle more on the road than at Kyle Field. 

Teams seem to just have bad games so I fully expect the Aggies to go 4-1 over the last five games.  They can absolutely go 5-0 but it’s going to take serious focus.

LSU and especially Auburn scare me the most.  LSU is still talented but they might be throwing in the towel on the season.  We get Auburn after they play Bama so that might work in our favor as well.  We need to get through the next 3 games before we worry about them.

I have no idea what to think on Ole Miss.  I feel like we’ll be able to pound them on the ground and limit their offense enough especially since it’s at Kyle Field.  We could blow them out.

Tennessee is sort of a toss up as they’re not a terrible team but they seem to be exposed. The Aggies are certainly the better team.  Luckily there won’t be 100,000 people in Neyland so that should help Mond.

South Carolina seems like the ultimate trap game to me.  The Aggies are coming off a convincing win, Muschamp isn’t a horrible coach, and they’re coming off a bye week.  The beat Auburn at home thanks to 3 interceptions by Bo Nix and Shi Smith is a pretty good receiver.  If we turn the ball over and Smith gets deep on us they can beat us.  The big issue with South Carolina is they gave up 225 rushing yards to Auburn and 283 rushing yards to LSU.

I think we’ll be fine against South Carolina.  I think Jimbo just leans on the rushing game not giving Mond a chance to turn the ball over through the air.  We can beat South Carolina if we’re focused and play like Jimbo has this team playing. We really just have to worry about getting by the next opponent above anything else. 

There’s no need to worry about what happens if the Aggies go 9-1.  Beat the next opponent and then the opponent after that.  If we get to 9-1 I like our chances to sneak into the College Football Playoff.  At  worst we’ll be the clear second best team in the SEC West if not the entire SEC looking at a major bowl game in Jimbo’s third season.

That indeed will be one of the last steps to Make Aggie Football Great Again.

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We’ll do a re-cap of each game throughout the season along with some other things like game previews for bigger games.

Thoughts From the Florida Game

What a win for the Fightin’ Texas Aggies on Saturday.  What.  A. Win. 

I won’t say that’s a statement win just yet.  There are still 7 games left and the wheels could fall off of this season.  It’s certainly a game that will shut the Jimbo detractors up for at least a month.  Hopefully it does it for eternity where we look back at this game as the day Jimbo made the definitive statement the Aggies have officially arrived.

I’ve been saying this for a while – one of the most important things Jimbo can do to Make Aggie Football Great Again is make Kyle Field a true home field advantage.  Kevin Sumlin was terrible at it.  For whatever reason Sumlin seemed to win his big games on the road and completely spit the bit at Kyle Field.  If the Aggies are truly going to return to a perennial Top 10 team they must win at Kyle Field way more than they lose.  Kyle Field must be a definitive home field advantage.

Jimbo Fisher is now 7-2 in SEC games at Kyle Field.  The two losses are against Alabama and Auburn last season so they’re not terrible losses.  I like the trend so far and hope he can keep it up.  If I had to choose one of beating Bama in Tuscaloosa or Florida at Kyle I’d take beating Florida at Kyle all day long this season. 

I don’t think people understand the importance of making Kyle Field a true home field advantage.  Other than recruiting and developing talent it’s the most important thing Jimbo Fisher can do to sustain long term success as the Aggie head coach.

On Saturday it was a home field advantage without doubt.  Dan Mullen commented on it but it’s impressive in the era of COVID for Kyle Field to help decide the outcome of the game.  That’s a testament to not only the students but the way the team fought back.  The students feed off the team and vice versa.  If the team didn’t kept fighting against the Florida Gators then the students aren’t yelling as loud.  If the students aren’t yelling, the defense might not have a found the will to make a much needed stop on Florida’s final drive.  It’s a beneficial relationship that needs both giving it their all.  That was certainly on display Saturday.

Before I get to the specific units everyone needs to remember the Aggies weren’t even close to playing a perfect game.  They had some stupid penalties which could have ended Florida scoring drives.  Jimbo and his staff had coaching brain farts.  Our running backs put the ball on the ground a couple of times with one of those almost costing us the game.  We also got burned repeatedly through the air. 

Other than the late fumble I think Florida played almost a perfect game yet still lost.  That is thanks to the 12th Man, the talent on this team, and the resiliency by the coaching staff to keep pushing forward to a win.

This whole team can still improve which is a good sign.  They have yet to play their best game where the defense and offense are taking care of the opposition. 

Hopefully they’re still developing to that point.  There’s not a game on this schedule they can’t win.  They can also lose 2 to 3 games if they don’t stay focused.  Hopefully this team understands there’s still work to do and they haven’t yet arrived.

They’re close but they’re not there yet.

Let’s get to the units:

Offense:

I’m starting with the side that played almost a perfect game.  Take away the two fumbles and there’s not much more you can ask of this unit.  This is the offense Jimbo has been working towards and it finally clicked.  Hopefully it keeps clicking.

Offensive Line:

I’ve been the most critical of these guys over the last two seasons.  What they did on Saturday was nothing short of remarkable.  They ground down the Florida defense and imposed their will when it mattered most.  Florida might not be as talented as Alabama or Georgia defensively but they’re damn good.  They’ve got some legit talent in their Front 7 and the Aggie offensive line imposed their will.

I can’t say enough good things about these guys from Saturday.  They weren’t perfect but they were the key to this victory.  If we didn’t run the ball like we did on Saturday we never have a chance to win this game.  We ran the ball because the offensive line took care of the Florida front 7.  It was impressive.

From a pass blocking standpoint they gave Kellen enough time to throw.  They’re not dominant like the 2012 offensive line who gave Johnny time to make sammiches in the pocket but they gave Kellen a pocket he could step up in.  Kellen and this line were pretty in sync where he had a pocket and knew when he needed to step up to buy a little more time.  They worked well together on Saturday.

The unsung heroes of this line are the running backs and tight ends.  They’ve done a tremendous job in either picking up blitzes or chipping at the line of scrimmage before going into their routes.  They do a tremendous job of helping slow down the defensive pressure so the offensive line is not overwhelmed.  Everyone seems to know their assignments and can read the defense.  This has changed drastically how this unit is performing from last season.  Last season they were often lost on who and how to block.

I sure hope these guys can keep this up because I’d love nothing more than to eat a big plate of crow at the end of this season.  I’ll happily eat a little bit right now as I didn’t think they had Saturday’s game in them.  I’m very happy to be wrong about these guys so far.  Keep it up, fellas.

Kellen Mond:

This was the Kellen Mond Jimbo has been building.  Like the offensive line I’m shocked to see it and glad I’m wrong.  He played his best game in an Aggie uniform by far.  I don’t know if he can keep this up but maybe this is the confidence boost he’s been needing.

He was 25 for 35 for 338 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.  That’s not perfect but it’s DAMN good.  We’ll take that stat line from Kellen Mond every damn game.  I don’t know if he can repeat this the rest of the season but I don’t know why he can’t either.

We’ll just have to see.

If I have one complaint it’s his lack of running ability.  He took off on a couple runs but didn’t gain many yards because he doesn’t have enough shake.  He’s got good straight line speed but he needs some space to get a couple strides going.  He’s certainly not an elusive runner which may explain his desire to stay in the pocket rather than take off.

If he can keep passing like he did on Saturday we won’t need his running ability.

Running Back:

Isaiah Spiller was a complete stud on Saturday.  You can’t say enough about this guy.  He rushed for 174 yards on 27 carries to average 6.4 yards per carry.  His longest run was for 23 yards so that means he was just grinding out yards finding holes and getting yards after contact.  He didn’t get most of his yards on a few long carries.  The dude was taking the rock and finding space and making defenders pay for contact.  He put the ball on the ground once early in the game but he tightened up when it mattered most.  It was a remarkable effort.

He didn’t have a signature run so his performance might not seem that impressive.  It was impressive.  He had a will and he just kept moving the ball forward.  I’m not sure how good he can be but we’re talking about a guy playing in his 16th game as a true sophomore.  He’s still young and seems to get better every game.  Keep on keeping on, Isaiah.

Early in the game I was a little frustrated at Jimbo for not using Ainias Smith more from a running standpoint.  Jimbo was right and I was wrong.  He leaned on Isaiah and it paid off.  There’s a reason I get paid nothing to write this blog and Jimbo pulls in a cool $7.5 million a year.  I’m fine with it.

If Spiller and the offensive line can repeat Saturday it’s going to do wonders for this team.

Wide Receiver:

Holy hell.  We finally completed not one but TWO deep balls to a wide receiver in SEC play.  For one game Jimbo showed us he knows how to use a receiver on a deep route. 

Caleb Chapman had the game of his young Aggie career catching 9 balls for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He saved the best for last catching a beautiful 51-yard touchdown pass to tie the game at 38 late in the fourth quarter.  Unfortunately, he tore is ACL on that play and is out for the rest of the season.  Hopefully there’s some guys on the roster that can pick up where Caleb left off. 

I don’t think it’s coincidence we had our best game on the ground in the same game we hit two deep balls.  Those two things work together causing a defense to defend the entire field.  It’s all a balancing act.

As for the other receivers they were pretty productive as well.  Jimbo really stuck with Chapman, Ainias, Wydermyer, and Chase Lane for the whole game.  There weren’t a lot of substitutions at receiver.

Each of those guys caught 4-5 balls for around 50 yards each.  That’s solid when you can equally spread out 3 guys for ~15 completions and 150 yards between them.  That keeps the defense having to defend the whole field and can’t key in on any single person.  It’s also a strong statement to Mond he was either reading the defense well or he was just spreading the ball around making plays to keep the defense honest.

I like what I’ve seen out of these guys.  I certainly like this unit better than last season’s unit but we need to keep developing.  We need someone to step up for Chapman in a big way.  Hopefully it’s time for Demas to finally step in and live up to his promise.  If it’s not Demas I hope it’s someone else.  We need the deep threat.

Overall:

I don’t see a reason why this offense can’t come close to replicating this performance every game.  They’ve actually done it all three games this season.  Against Florida they just didn’t make the mistakes they did against Vandy and Bama as it relates to turnovers and dropped passes.  It’s that simple.  Don’t make mistakes and this offense can win games for this team.

Defense:

This defense is much better than they showed on Saturday which gives me some hope.  Dan Mullen is an outstanding coach with an outstanding quarterback.  They had a great game plan for our defense.  They were really balanced and used a lot of mid level crossing routes and running backs out of the backfield to sustain drives.

It seemed we were pretty committed to shutting down the running game along with not letting Kyle Pitts beat us.  It was a sound strategy by Mike Elko but Dan Mullen utilized other weapons to keep drives going down the field.  I’m not sure we’ll see an offense better prepared for this defense for the rest of the season except when we play Ole Miss and Auburn.

We missed a lot of tackles on Saturday which his really unlike this defense.  I’m really hoping it was related to Dan Mullen’s scheme where our guys were just a tick slow diagnosing plays.  Tackling is physical but it’s also a little mental.  When you’ve diagnosed the play and in the right position it’s a lot easier to make tackles.

My biggest concern for this defense is not having a repeat of when we beat Tennessee at home in 2016.  They missed a ton of tackles in that game and had to be bailed out by the offense.  The John Chavis lead defenses never seemed to be the same after that game.  It’s not a big concern I have with Elko but it is something to be mindful of.  This team is capable of tackling better and they need to get back to it in coming games.

Defensive Line:

This unit is a little boring but I still believe they’re as solid as they come.  They’re still looking for that dominant playmaker but the way Leal and Clemons flash at times I have some hope.  Tyree Johnson is getting more playing time which I think is a good thing to keep guys fresher so they can flash

It would be nice for one of these guys to break out and start playing like Daylon Mack, Demontre Moore, Justin Madibuike, or even half of what Myles Garrett was.  We need someone who on a play can just decimate the offensive line and get a sack or big tackle for a loss.  I’m thinking DeMarvin Leal is the most likely as he’s still a true sophomore learning his role on this defense.  He’s just so versatile right now playing all over the defensive line.  Once the positions become second nature to him I think you’re going to start seeing this guy dominate offensive lines like those names I mentioned.

Now that we’re beyond Alabama and Florida I’m wondering if Donnell Harris starts getting some snaps to see if he has the raw pass rush talent most people seem to think he has.  If we can add true edge pressure in passing situations it’ll be a major boost for this defense and their struggles to get off the field on third downs.

This unit plays a little boring but make no mistake they’re the core of this defensive unit.  This unit allows Elko to focus on the other areas that need help.

Linebacker:

These guys are much like the defensive line.  They’re solid without being flashy and dominant.  Buddy Johnson lead the team in tackles which shouldn’t be a surprise.  Aaron Hansford has looked good as has Andre White Jr.  We certainly need to upgrade the overall talent with this unit but these guys are really serviceable for now.

If there’s one complaint it’s Buddy Johnson really struggles covering running backs out of the backfield.  Alabama was successful doing it and Florida continued it.  He’s not terrible at recognizing it but he’s just a step behind covering it because he’s built to be a run stopper and not cover running backs.  I think getting Erick Young back and not having a defense focused on defending Alabama’s receivers or a guy like Kyle Pitts will help Buddy.  If not, Buddy is going to continue to see situations where he’s responsible for a running back flaring out of the backfield which is a bad mis-match for us.

I’m curious if Antonio Doyle will start getting snaps like Donnell Harris.  He’s a true freshman as well with All SEC talent.  Hopefully he can add some depth and talent to the team this year as it’s still needed.

Secondary:

Dan Mullen doesn’t have the same weapons as Alabama but he does have an accurate quarterback who makes smart decisions.  Florida had 8 receivers catch 23 passes for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns.  We did a really good job limiting Kyle Pitts but I think it opened up Trask to just find the open guy which he did most of the game.

The worst performer of the day for this unit was Leon O’Neal.  For all the good things he did in the first two games he didn’t do it in this game.  He had two REALLY stupid personal fouls.  He also got picked on for three touchdowns.  One was to Kyle Pitts which isn’t a terrible thing to have happen but the other two it seemed like Florida knew they could fool O’Neal in coverage and took advantage.  He let his emotions get the best of him and that can’t happen.  Hopefully Jimbo and Elko can get him settled down and let him play to his talent.  We don’t need this guy regressing as he’s a key component of this defense if his head is screwed on correctly.

As for the rest of the secondary they were all equal offenders it seems.  Florida simply did a good job of flooding the secondary with a lot of crossing routes.  Since we can’t generate a pass rush Kyle Trask simply had time to find the guy our secondary wasn’t covering.  It’s not a huge knock on our defense but just more of a masterful job by Mullen and Trask attacking our secondary in a smart way.

Demani Richardson is still the heart and soul of this unit.  Jaylon Jones does seem to be getting better every game.  It’ll be nice to get Erick Young back at some point this season.  The talent is there to improve.

Overall:

I still believe in Mike Elko and this defensive unit.  I think we simply have seen them against a REALLY good offensive team in Alabama and a very good offensive mind and quarterback in Mullen and Trask.  This unit is going to get tested on Saturday against Mike Leach but I think they’ll be fine.  Leach got his surprise game against LSU and defenses have an idea of how to defend his Air Raid.  The team that scares me the most right now is Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss team as they’re putting up points against everyone they’ve played.

Let’s get past Mississippi State first and then we’ll let the rest of the season play out.  There’s still plenty of time to improve the young talent on this defense.

Looking Forward:

At this point I think this is a 7-3 football team at worst.  That’s a HUGE improvement from the first two games.

I don’t expect us to win out even though it’s possible.  We still play in the SEC and this is a pretty inexperienced team with a very inconsistent quarterback.  I really expect us to go 6-1 finishing up at 8-2.  That will likely put as the second-best team in the SEC West.  While I’d love to go 9-1, if you’d told me after the first two games we’d wind up 8-2 I would have asked how to nail that record down. I’m not going to get greedy from a record standpoint just yet.

This is a good football team.  We saw that on Saturday and have seen glimpses against Vandy and Bama.  We just don’t know how consistent they can be. 

We’ll just have to see how the season plays out.  It sure looks a lot different this week than it did this time last week.  Fine by me.

Make Aggie Football Great Again.

#MAFGA

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Thoughts from the Vandy Game

The third year of the Jimbo Fisher era at Texas A&M got off to frustrating start.  While most of us don’t expect the Aggies to contend for the SEC West this season we are hoping this is they year where make a clear step towards that goal.  We certainly didn’t see that on Saturday night at Kyle.

This was basically an extension of the 2019 season.  If you put this game in the collection of game film from 2019 it would have fit in perfectly.

Let’s count the ways:

  • Kellen Mond not taking over a game
  • Kellen Mond being loose with the football putting it on the ground multiple times
  • Kellen Mond not knowing when to run
  • Kellen Mond being inconsistent with his passing
  • Receivers dropping easy passes
  • No downfield passing threats
  • No play calling creativity
  • Delay of game calls
  • Bone headed special teams play
  • No pass rush
  • Strong defensive effort despite that
  • Jimbo and Kellen saying they’ve got some problems to fix

I can keep going but you get the idea.  While Kellen Mond is a good portion of this list he’s not the only issue this team is facing.  Maybe it was rust by the players or maybe it was Jimbo trying to figure out what he has with this team.  Whatever it is, the team on the field Saturday night will be lucky to win 5 games.  It really has the talent to win 10 games.

Speaking of talent, it needs to be pointed out the ONLY reason the Aggies won the game was because they’re more talented.  It wasn’t coaching and execution.  The Aggies are simply more talented than the Commodores and that’s why the Aggies won.  While Jimbo has major question marks on his coaching and development his recruiting is showing promising results.  He’s got talent to work with.

Before I get into specifics about the game I have to say Kyle Field was really impressive all things considered.  It certainly wasn’t the environment of a packed Kyle but it was damn good.  The students were yelling, the band was playing, and the DJ was rocking.  You knew who was the home team and there were moments when the team fed off the crowd that was there.  Kudos to the Aggie gameday operation crew and the students.  Despite the COVID limitations they made it a pretty solid experience.

On to the game in my usual format where I look at the specific units.

Offense:

Kellen Mond:

I think I’ve been consistent in my assessment of Kellen Mond.  He’s not as bad as some people make him out to be but he’s not someone that’s going to take a game over either.  In his first game of 2020 he showed exactly ZERO development.  I mean not one step of development from a nine month off season.  He was the exact same quarterback he’s been under Jimbo Fisher.  Not one positive deviation from who’s been for two full seasons.

All of this talk about looking at every play from last season to correct errors did absolutely nothing.  He did all the same things he’s done in 2 seasons with Jimbo.  He was inconsistent passing the ball.  He was unaware when to run and when to sit in the pocket.  He was lazy with the ball and put it on the ground multiple times.  If he really did watch every play from last season to correct errors he wasted a bunch of time.  The test on the field showed he learned NOTHING.

The fumbles bother me the most because that’s the sign of quarterback who’s thinking too much.  He’s still trying to figure out plays and not being careful with the ball.  He’s now put the ball on the ground 5 times in the last two games against lesser talented teams.  That’s inexcusable.  Running backs lose their jobs for doing the same thing.  Jimbo has a ton invested in Mond’s development but if Mond keeps up this fumbling he won’t be under center much longer.  That’s too big of a liability.

I was hopeful we’d see a senior quarterback take command of the game against an inferior opponent.  Kellen didn’t do that.  He’s not a natural leader and it’s painfully obvious at this point.  He’s really damn talented but he doesn’t have the mental makeup to be any better than he is.  He pays a lot of lip service to being a better quarterback but his play doesn’t show it.

Kellen is still in the top half of SEC quarterbacks in my mind simply because he has talent.  I no longer have any hope he’ll be the dominant player he could be because of his talent.  It’s simply not in him and he really doesn’t want it.

It’ll be interesting to see how Jimbo handles Kellen.  He must be frustrated he has the same guy he’s had going into this third season.  I don’t think Jimbo changes quarterbacks anytime soon but if this offense plays like it did on Saturday night I think he’ll have to seriously consider a change at some point in the season.

Let me be clear – I don’t think there’s a quarterback controversy right now.  I’m simply saying if this Aggie team winds up 1-3 with losses to Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi State due to offensive ineptitude Jimbo is going to be questioning if it’s time for a change.  The fans will already be there but at the end of the day wins and losses are what matters.  Kellen Mond has a tough three game stretch to prove he still belongs under center.

After the Mississippi State game we have a bye and then two games against Arkansas and South Carolina.  That’s the perfect time to make a change under center if the offense is struggling.  I’m not saying it will but the schedule is set up to make a change if we’re 1-3 with a puttering offense.  Just something to be mindful of if Mond doesn’t step up his play over the next 3 games.

Mond can still win the Aggies a lot more games than they lose but I do believe the clock is ticking for Jimbo.

I watched a lot of the Florida game on Saturday and what I saw from Kyle Trask is what I was hoping to see from Kellen on Saturday.  Trask stood comfortable in the pocket and made some nice throws.  Trask had complete control of the Florida offense.  Mond is more athletic than Trask but on Saturday Trask stood head and shoulders above Mond.  Trask appears to have developed while Mond continues to be who he is.  It’s extremely frustrating.

Wide Receiver:

A lot of new names at receiver but it looked more of the same.  Decent on some plays but also dropped some very easy passes.  Jalen Preston appears to have taken over the role of Jhamon Ausbon as the possession receiver.  Preston has plenty of talent so good to see him out there.  Didn’t like his fumble but hopefully he can correct that.

Caleb Chapman was targeted 7 times and caught 4 balls including a nice touchdown.  Chapman looked okay but he wasn’t spectacular.  Chase Lane had a couple nice catches along with Kam Brown but nothing impressive.

I love Ainias Smith and he had some nice catches and most importantly yards after the catch.  We’ve been missing a guy that can make defenders miss after the catch since Christian Kirk went to the NFL.  In my mind Smith needs to see the ball more.

What I’m most shocked by is Demond Demas had ZERO snaps.  He was suited up and on the sideline but he didn’t see a single snap.  This is mind boggling to me.  By all reports he’s far and away the most athletic receiver we have.  I get he’s a true freshman but he needs to be out there to see what he can do.

We don’t do true deep balls.  We don’t throw passes downfield in one on one situations to see if we can win contested balls.  We don’t turn short passes into super long gains.  Our longest three catches on the night were of 26, 23, and 21 yards.  Against a team like Vanderbilt that’s terrible.  Elite level teams have receivers that can either get down the field or turn a short pass into a long catch and run.  This has been amazingly missing in the Jimbo Fisher era.

At some point we need a legit downfield threat.  We still haven’t had a receiver catch a touchdown ball over 40 yards in the SEC since Jimbo took over.  A deep threat would do wonders for this offense.  Somebody needs to step up to fill that role and Jimbo needs to work that into the playbook.

Let me put it this way – In 17 SEC games we have never snapped the ball on our side of the field and completed a touchdown pass to a wide receiver under Jimbo Fisher.  Think about that for a moment. 

Jace Sternberger had a touchdown catch of 46 yards against Kentucky in 2018.  Wydermyer had one for 52 yards against Mississippi State last season.  Those are tight ends and those are our longest touchdown passes in 17 SEC games under Jimbo Fisher.  That’s it.  46 and 52 yard scores to really gifted tight ends who did most of the work after the catch thanks to their athleticism.

I’m quite certain defensive coaches are aware of this and it’s a major factor into how they defend us.  We have to develop a downfield threat if this offense is really going to start doing something.

Running Back:

In addition to the defense, Isaiah Spiller is why we won this game.  He only carried the ball 8 times but he had 117 yards ripping off two really nice runs in the second half.  Spiller should have gotten 20 carries in this game.  Maybe Jimbo wanted Mond and his receivers to get some reps but Jimbo should have leaned on Spiller a lot more in the second half.

Spiller is starting his second season but he’s impressed me.  I’m not sure how great he can be but the dude produces.  He was the only offensive player against LSU last season that showed any fire.  On Saturday night he took what touches he got and made the most of them.  This dude needs more touches in my mind.

Here’s Isiah Spiller’s last three games:

LSU – 11 carries for 66 yards and a touchdown.  That’s 6 yards a carry against a tough LSU team.
Oklahoma State – 19 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown.  That’s 4.1 yards a carry.
Vanderbilt – 8 carries for 117 yards with no touchdowns.  That’s 14.6 yards a carry with a long of 57 yards.

Isiah Spiller is producing at running back with a spotty offensive line.  Give him the damn ball more.

I love Ainias Smith as a receiver but I also love what he’s doing at running back.  He’s a nice change of pace to Spiller and knows how to make defenders miss.  His touchdown run was proof positive of that.

Jimbo really needs to figure out how to confuse defenses with Spiller and Smith in the backfield.  They’re clearly the most dynamic offensive players we have and they need to touch the ball more.  If you’re not going to thrown the ball downfield at least stretch the defense at the line of scrimmage with two running backs capable of two different things.  Give the defense something to worry about.

Offensive Line:

Obviously this has been my biggest concern coming into the 2020 season.  On Saturday night they looked solid enough.  They weren’t really tested but they did just fine.  We had 183 yards on the ground and Kellen only got sacked once.  For the most part Kellen had time to make passes.

I’m still concerned with this unit but they were fine on Saturday night.  Had the quarterback and receivers did more to catch and protect the ball their work might have looked a lot better.

We’ll find out more about this unit over the next three games.  For their first game they actually looked serviceable.  No complaints from me right now.

Mark me worried about what they’re going to do against Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi State though.

Defense:

Defensive Line:

We all knew this is the best unit on the team and on Saturday night they did what they do.  Michael Clemons, Bobby Brown, Jayden Peevy, and DeMarvin Leal were solid.  DeMarvin Leal is a beast.

This unit is the heart and soul of this team.  I really can’t say anything more about these guys.  They show up every game and play as a really strong unit.

The lack of pass rush is a bit concerning but Michael Clemons got a key sack late in the game.  I’m hoping he’s the guy that gets more comfortable and starts to develop into a guy that can bring pressure.  He has the potential so I hope he realizes it.  If it’s not these guys bringing the pressure directly I think you might see Elko get a little creative and bring disguised blitzes.

The most impressive thing from this game was McKinnley Jackson.  He’s a true freshman and got some snaps in the second half.  He looked outstanding.  I’m excited about this guy.  He was the best player in Mississippi last year.  He was a late addition to the recruiting class and he chose A&M over Bama.  It was a major get for Jimbo and his staff.  If his first game is any indication he’s going be a total beast as well.

I was excited about this unit coming into the season and nothing about Saturday night changes that.  If anything I’m thinking it might be better than we thought.  If Clemons can develop a pass rush and Jackson adds serious athleticism and depth then this unit will be one of the best in the country.

Linebacker:

While this unit isn’t as talented as the defensive line it’s a strength of this team.  Buddy Johnson and Aaron Hansford lead the defense in tackles which is what they’re supposed to do.  Buddy Johnson is a football player.  He’s probably not going to make first team All SEC because he doesn’t have the raw talent and make highlight plays but the dude can play football.

I think Anthony Hines was getting passed up by Hansford which is why Hines decided to opt out.  Hansford is a heck of a story coming back from a serious knee injury and switching from offense to defense.

Andrew White saw a few snaps and looked solid.

While this unit is not as talented or deep as the defensive line it’s a solid unit.  I wasn’t worried about this unit coming into the season and I still feel the same way.

Secondary:

Welcome back, Leon O’Neal, Jr.  This kid had a less than stellar 2019 season.  In the off season it looked like he was going to transfer.  On Saturday night he was starting for the Aggies and played outstanding football.  He got a key interception late in the game with a nice return.  I hoping O’Neal has his head screwed on straight because he’s a heck of a talent and can be big for this team.

Demani Richardson was his normal self.  He picked of a pass and was all over the field.  He’s certainly the heart and soul of this secondary.  Jaylon Jones started at corner and he looked pretty solid as a true freshman.  Myles Jones started at the other corner and was decent enough.  I must give him credit as Myles has really developed.  He’s not as talented as the other guys he plays with but he’s playing much better than he used to.  Erick Young also played much of the game as the nickel and was strong.

This unit is going to have it’s hiccups but I feel pretty good about them right now.  I’m wondering if Elko starts trying to figure out how to bring pressure with these five guys.  They’re all pretty talented and flexible in what they can do between covering and tackling.  Sneaking one of these guys on a blitz a few times a guy will do wonders for this defense.

Special Teams:

I love Ainias Smith but I have no clue what he was doing fielding a punt in the endzone.  Even worse I don’t know what Brian George was thinking illegally blocking someone in the endzone.  No punt return personal should ever be in the end zone.  Just take the ball at the 20.  That resulted in 2 points for Vandy and even worse a loss of possession.  That’s bad coaching and execution.

Constantinou had one bad punt and one good punt of 53 yards averaging 45 yards on the day.  Seth Small hit his one field goal attempt and his two extra points.  Return wise we don’t have much going for us other than some head scratchers on returning balls in the end zone.

This unit appears more of the same under Jimbo.  It’s not going to win us any games so you just hope it doesn’t lose us any games.

Coaching:

As most of you know I love Jimbo Fisher.  His offensive plan and the player’s execution on Saturday night was terrible.  Spiller and Ainias Smith get a pass.  His play calling made no sense.  He looked like a 12 year old playing Madden just randomly selecting plays.  I hope he was just trying to call as many different plays as possible to see if Mond had truly developed in the off season.  If so, he couldn’t have liked what he saw.

At some point Jimbo must add some wrinkles to this offense.  I get what he’s doing because his defense is so good coupled with a questionable offensive line and quarterback.  He wants to win time of possession and limit turnovers so he limits plays for his defense wile minimizing his offensive weakness.  I get it because not many people have a defense like he does.  No reason to gamble and put those guys in a bind.

However, he must develop a downfield threat.  If defenses only need to worry about 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage it’s only going to make this offense’s job even harder.  Better defenses will flat out expose this offensive line and Kellen Mond.  We saw it in 2019 and we’re about to see if over the next three games.  We’ll still have LSU and Auburn at the end of this season.

Jimbo has to evolve and develop as much as his players need to.  Right now everyone is kind of holding each other back so it’s time to try some different stuff.  This is not a tough offense to defend if you’ve watched any film on it.

Jimbo needs to coach in 2020 a little differently than he did in 2019.  He certainly didn’t do that on Saturday night.

Speaking of coaching, here’s the list of current SEC West head coaches:

Alabama – Nick Saban
LSU – Coach O
Texas A&M – Jimbo Fisher
Auburn – Gus Malzahn
Mississippi State – Mike Leach
Ole Miss – Lane Kiffin
Arkansas – Sam Pittman

Three of those guys have national championship rings.  One of those guys took his team to a national championship game and won a ring as an offensive coordinator.  One of those guys has multiple national championship rings as an offensive coordinator.  One of those guys is Mike Leach.

One of those is not like the others.  How do you feel if you’re an Arkansas fan knowing you could have hired Mike Leach?  What a failed job by the Arkansas administration to miss on Leach not once but twice.

Looking Forward:

I obviously don’t feel good about my 10-2 season prediction right now.  Football is a funny game so you never know.  The talent is still there to win 10 games this season.  Jimbo and some key offensive players need to take a different step forward. No more one step forward and two steps back they’ve taken for two seasons.  \

We’re going to learn a lot about this team in the next three games.  Based on this past weekend there’s a strong chance we go 1-3.  More than likely I think we still wind up going 2-2 as Elko will find a way to keep Leach from repeating what he did in Baton Rouge.  I just don’t see us beating Florida based on how the two teams played on Saturday.

I put our chances of beating Bama at exactly zero.  That’s not battered Aggie syndrome and just reality.  The only way we can beat Bama is if they turn the ball over and/or we really open our offense to try and score lots of points.  I don’t see either of those happening.

Saban will play into Jimbo’s hand of wanting to play a slow and methodical game just like Jimbo.  Saban will make sure his guys don’t turn the ball over and Jimbo will take exactly zero chances on offense.  Bama will break more offensive plays and Jimbo will be yelling at Mond over multiple bad decisions.  I won’t be shocked to see us get the back door cover of 17 points late in the game.  The final score won’t mean we were ever in the game though.

I hope I’m wrong but 17 SEC games with Jimbo and Mond give me a pretty good idea of how things are going to play out in Tuscaloosa this weekend.

We’re still 1-0 with a ton of talent but Jimbo needs to get coaching if he wants to earn that $7.5 million.

Make Aggie Football Great Again

#MAFGA

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A Look at the 2020 Aggies by Position

I have no idea what to expect from the 2020 Aggie Football season.  Thanks to COVID there’s additional questions beyond the roster and original schedule.  The schedule has changed dramatically along with a major reduction of fans in the stands.  Some players thrive off a stadium’s energy even on the road.  Some players get distracted by it.  Nobody has any real idea what this means so we’ll just have to see how all of this goes. 

I am PUMPED about the 10 game SEC schedule.  This schedule is amazing.  Every game this season is worthy of watching.  If it sticks around after COVID we’ll have one blessing from this pandemic.  Schedule one cupcake and one other Power 5 school for an out of conference game and we’ll finally get our money’s worth as season ticker holders.

I’ll look at the schedule in my next post but for this post I’m just going to pontificate on the various position groups.

Offense:

Kellen Mond:

I’m not even going to call this group Quarterback.  The quarterback is Kellen Mond.  He will start the season and barring a major injury he’ll be the quarterback all season.  Simple as that.

Somehow Kellen Mond has become the most polarizing Aggie player that I can recall.  Maybe it’s the Johnny Football effect where everyone expects a dynamic quarterback under center. Mond is nowhere near dynamic but he doesn’t deserve the anguish he gets.  I can’t figure it out but for some people no matter what Mond does he’s a terrible quarterback.

The reality is he’s an above average college quarterback.  He’s been solid enough in his two seasons under Jimbo.  Go look around college football if you think Kellen is a horrible quarterback.  We’re MUCH better under center than a lot of college programs.  He’s been the best guy available for the Aggies since Jimbo got to town.  If you don’t believe me go find out where Nick Starkel is.  As a hint, he’s moved on from Arkansas because he couldn’t find playing time there.  Mond is the best guy Jimbo has had available.  Starkel wasn’t the guy.  Calzada and King aren’t ready.

The good news is that 2020 will likely be Mond’s last year under center.   I don’t see him coming back despite the new rule the NCAA created where 2020 is a free year of eligibility.  Mond either does well enough in 2020 to try his hand at the next level or he won’t have done well enough to warrant leaving.

If Mond comes back in 2021 I believe he’ll have a hard time fending off Calzada or King because his 2020 was more of the same.  He didn’t progress enough to try his hand at the NFL so not sure why he’d beat out two guys that seem really talented.  I fully trust Jimbo to run a quarterback out there that’s going to help him win football games.  I don’t see that being Mond in 2021 if he’s still around.  Mond will move on.

As for Mond’s play in 2020 I do expect it to be better.    

His legs made the difference in the Aggie’s season last year.  That took a few games for him to figure out.  Once he took off running he changed the dynamic of the offense.  His legs helped immensely in the games we won in the second half of the season.  We probably don’t beat OkSU in the Texas Bowl without Mond’s legs.  Without his legs there’s a good chance we go 6-7 rather than 8-5.  I suspect he’ll be more likely to run all season which is a huge deal for a defense to defend.

From a passing standpoint I think he’ll be better as well.  He’ll have a better group of receivers to throw to which I’ll get to next.  There’s no way he’ll make a Joe Burrow like accuracy jump but I do expect him to be better.  He’ll still be wildly inconsistent at times but any quarterback is better when their group of receivers is better.

As for Mond’s off the field stuff related to the Sully statue I truthfully don’t care.  I think too much of it has been made.  Everyone is bored and wants something to talk about.  A&M is much bigger than a statue.

I personally don’t think the Sully statue should go anywhere but Mond has a right to feel how he wants.  From what I saw he was protesting it peacefully.  Maybe he learned something about leadership through all of it.  I have no idea and I’m not going to judge him because I’ve never had a conversation with him about it.  Getting wound up over what college kids say/post on social media isn’t a good idea.  I think we’d all agree we think MUCH differently than we did in college.  I’m sure as hell glad I didn’t have social media in college. 

Mond does have the ability to be a really outstanding college quarterback.  Physically he can make a lot of throws and he can run.  I believe a lot of his issue have been confidence in addition to not having time or open receivers.  He should have more confidence and open receivers in 2020.

Hopefully 2020 will be the year that Mond shines.  It’s in EVERY Aggie Football fan’s best interest for Mond to have a really solid year.  Mond’s success will do nothing but keep the Aggie program on an upward trajectory. 

This team isn’t ready to win a national title which I’ll get to in a bit.  8 wins with a bowl win will be a pretty good season for the Aggies.  That’s an 8-3 season for an all SEC schedule.  I want more and I think there’s more there but that is the low water mark.  If Mond has a good enough season to get us 8 wins then let’s all tip our hat to him and wish him well at the next level.

If Mond fails, it’s not going to help any facet of the Aggie Football program.  For 11 games this season cheer for the man under center.

Wide Receiver:

Last season I consistently said our wide receiver group was way overrated.  Jhamon Ausbon was our most consistent receiver but he wasn’t dynamic.  Our most dynamic receiver wound up being a true freshman tight end.  Quartney Davis and Kendrick Rogers appeared to have all the tools but they really couldn’t get open for the most part.  I believe the lack of them getting drafted proves they weren’t as good as some people believed.

Enough about those guys.

The 2020 receiving group should be IMMENSELY better.  Ausbon comes back to be the consistent move the chains guy.  Demond Demas while a true freshman should be in the regular lineup just so defenses must defend his physical ability.  I’m hoping he’s a big play threat all season.  We’ve been missing a guy like him since Josh Reynolds left.  Cam Buckley is out for the season which is a loss but I think guys like Caleb Chapman, Kam Brown, Dylan Wright, Chase Lane, Devin Price, and Muhsin Muhammad can pick up his slack.  I’m thinking there’s a couple of guys in there that can cover the loss of Cam Buckley.

The wide receiver unit will definitely be better than last season.  I have no concerns of that.

The best news for the receiving group is the return of Jalen Wydermyer along with a healthy Baylor Cupp.  We saw what Wydermyer did last season and Cupp is supposed to be a more gifted receiver.  Those guys will give Jimbo a lot of flexibility in formations because they’re so versatile.  I think they’ll also help a very suspect offensive line which I’ll get to later.

The person I’m most excited about returning is Ainias Smith.  I know he’s listed as a running back right now but I think you’re going to see him flexed or motioned out of the backfield to get receiving advantages.  Think of what Bill Belichick does with his receiving running backs.  Smith will certainly get handoffs in the backfield but I will be shocked if he’s not targeted in the passing game as much as he’s getting touches in the backfield.

I was really shocked he didn’t get more playing time at receiver last season.  I thought he showed out in the Arkansas game but for some reason Davis and Rogers kept getting playing time when Smith was simply more productive when he played.  Ainias Smith is a football player that can do a lot of things.

Between Wydermyer, Cupp, and Smith you have a lot of flexibility in attacking the shorter and intermediate areas of the field.  That was really missing last season.  They are going to wear out linebackers in coverage.  I believe those three guys can also help someone like Demas get one on one matchups where we can watch him just go get balls.

This receiving group won’t be on par with those from LSU, Bama, and Clemson last season but I do expect it to be MUCH better than the Aggie receiving group last season.

Running Back:

The running back position has really taken a step back in the area of depth.  We basically have two guys in Isiah Spiller and Ainias Smith thanks to injuries and lack of talent.  They were true freshmen last season and had a solid year all things considered.  Behind them there’s lots of question marks. 

I REALLY love the speed of Devon Achane but he’s small.  I think he’s a guy that you’ll see flexed or motioned out as well.  He’s nowhere near an every down back but you’ll see him in sets where they hope to get him the ball in space so he can utilize his speed.  He adds some nice depth and flexibility though.

The rest of the group remains to be seen.  Earnest Crownover comes in from the junior college ranks.  He’s not highly ranked but has size going 6’1” and 220.  Hopefully he can turn into a short yardage back.

We still a need a Bama style all purpose running back but I’m fine with Spiller and Smith taking the snaps.  They both look like legit football players so I think this position group will be better than last season simply because those two guys will be a year older.

Offensive Line:

This is the group that’s bothered me the most in the two seasons Jimbo has been in charge.  I don’t see 2020 being much better and that’s a MAJOR concern.  There’s a REALLY good chance we don’t have an offensive lineman get signed by an NFL team between Erik McCoy and Kenyon Green.  Notice I said signed and not even drafted. 

That means we’ll go at least three seasons without having an Aggie offensive lineman signed by an NFL team.  More than likely it’ll be four seasons as I don’t think Kenyon Green leaves early.

You can’t compete in the SEC with that deficiency.  You just can’t.  The NFL is the ultimate metric of SEC talent.  When you have a position group that has a void for that long without NFL caliber talent you have an issue.  I don’t know how to stress this enough.

You have no idea how much I hope I’m wrong but that’s what I’m seeing.  It’s why I don’t see the Aggies being a true Top 10 program capable of beating anyone in the country this season.  Strong defensive lines will eat our lunch.  See the 2019 losses an example.  Especially the Georgia game.  We could have won that game had the offensive line done anything that game.

Most of the offensive line is back.  That’s usually a good thing for a team.  Not with this group.

The only change is Ryan McCollum will take over for Colton Prater.  McCollum was the 2019 Spring MVP but then barley played all last season.  I know he had injuries but he’d occasionally trot out there so whatever was wrong never seemed to be season ending.  I’m hoping he had some nagging injury that never fully healed and he’s fully healed now.  I believe he can be a better center than Prater which will be an improvement.  If he was really healthy all season and couldn’t beat out Prater then that’s a little alarming.

Dan Moore, Jared Hocker, and Carson Green return for their senior seasons.  I don’t see those guys improving very much from their junior to senior season, but it has happened before.  They were terrible against the elite teams last year.  I mean just got repeatedly destroyed.

We have no depth behind those guys because some of the guys Jimbo brought in his first season have had to retire due to injuries.  We have nobody in the two deep to really compete with those guys.  This is just a decimated unit that missed on a solid 3 years of recruiting.

Kenyon Green should be better with a season under his belt.  He certainly has NFL level talent.  Supposedly he’s been playing left guard some this summer which could help us.  My personal hope is that he can move out to left tackle at some point this season.  At worst he goes to right tackle.  He needs to be playing tackle at some point this season.

We do have some talented youth in Layden Robinson and hopefully Luke Matthews can live up to the family name.  We have some good looking freshmen in Chris Morris, Akinola Ogunbiyi, and Smart Chibuzo coming in.  It’s hard for a true freshman to do well at offensive line in the SEC though.  Kenyon Green struggled at times last season and he has all the talent in the world.

Short of the returning senior starters making a quantum leap I’m hoping Layden Robinson and Chris Morris find their way into the starting group at some point.  I think they’re the most ready from a talent standpoint.  Even if they’re slightly worse than the returning seniors at least they’d be getting valuable experience.

If McCollum can play as good as he did in the 2019 Spring then I think a combination of McCollum, Kenyon Green, Layden Robinson, Chris Morris, and whatever senior works best with those guys might be serviceable.

I hope I’m wrong but this is the weak link of the 2020 Aggie Football team.  I think it’s a pretty major weakness.  You can mask a weak offensive line in any other conference but the SEC. Looking at you, Big 12.  Unfortunately, we play in the SEC West where those weak offensive lines get exposed.

If I find the time I’ll do a write up on why the offensive line is in shambles but the reality is this is still a  “gift” from Kevin Sumlin and Jim Turner.  We should have talented guys entering their redshirt junior and senior year on campus but we don’t.  We simply missed on a good 2-3 years of offensive line recruiting and paying the price.

Defense:

Coaching:

Before I get to the players I have to point out Mike Elko.  This dude has been the unsung hero of Jimbo’s first two years in Aggieland.  He and Jimbo have worked perfectly together.  His one mistake was at LSU last season but I kind of get why he tried it.  He tried a 3 man front thinking he could confuse Burrow with increased coverage and Burrow just torched it.  We were never winning that game but it was interesting to see Elko go away from the strength of the team which was the defensive line.

Outside of that he’s been OUTSTANDING.  Seriously.  I don’t think most fans realize how sound of a defensive coordinator he is.  At some point he’s going to take a head coaching job.  We need to enjoy him in Aggieland.

The other blessing of COVID besides the 10 game SEC schedule is that Elko likely sticks around for 2021.  I don’t see many programs firing their coaches this season for a host of reasons.  I think Elko comes back in 2021.  I’m not sure we see Elko in maroon in 2021 without this COVID mess.

There are some blessings in all of this.

Defensive Line:

This has been the strongest unit on the field in Jimbo’s first two years and I don’t see 2020 being any different.  It’s a fairly young unit but it’s probably Jimbo’s most talented.

There will be a lot of movement as Elko likes moving guys around based on opponent and situations.  You’re going to see DeMarvin Leal, Jayden Peevy, Bobby Brown, and Michael Clemons taking most of the snaps and that’s damn good.  Leal will likely be a high round draft pick and the others can hold their own in the SEC. 

Peevy is coming into his senior year and he’s been solid in his time at A&M.  He’s not an every down tackle as I think Leal will move down on passing downs but Peevy will see lots of snaps and be fine.  I personally think Bobby Brown is a little soft.  He’s a big fella but I don’t think he’s quite playing to his potential.  He goes 6’4”/325 so he’s a big body in the middle which you must have.  I just would like to see him be more dominant because he has the talent.  This will be Clemons fourth year on the A&M campus.  This is his third on the football field as he sat out his first year.  He came in with lots of hope but hasn’t quite delivered.  He finally showed some promise last year at times.  Maybe the third season is the charm.  He’s 6’5”/270 so he’s a big body at defensive end for running downs.

Behind them will be some mix that’s likely adjusted all season.  We have lots of really good depth so it’s just finding the right mix.  Jermiah Martin and Tyree Wilson will back up Leal and Clemons.  Martin had probably his best game all season in the Texas Bowl so hopefully that carries over.  True freshman Donell Harris will likely see some snaps in obvious passing situations.  He’s supposed to be fast off the ball.   That’s something you can’t coach so let’s find out early.

Backing up Brown and Peevy will be Josh Rogers and Derrick Hunter.  We’ve got some talented true freshman coming in at Defensive Tackle as well.  The best incoming freshman is McKinley Jackson who Jimbo got over Alabama.  If he’s as advertised he’ll be in the rotation this year and hopefully starting next season.  In addition to him we have Isiah Rakes and Dallas Walker coming in who are both over 325 pounds.  Jimbo has been recruiting space eaters for the middle of the defensive line.  That’s a good thing.

This is not quite the elite unit it needs to be in the SEC but it’s got enough talent and depth to compete in the SEC.  I don’t really have any issues with this unit as it’ll be the anchor of the defense.

Linebacker:

Buddy Johnson and Anthony Hines return as the starting linebackers.  I can’t type enough good words about Buddy Johnson.  The dude is a football player.  I’m not sure he’ll sniff the NFL but he’s a really solid middle linebacker at the college level.  He plays smart and anticipates plays.  I think we’d be in big trouble if we didn’t have him.  He’ll be a senior and he’ll be the quarterback for the guys up front.

Anthony Hines is long on talent but he’s short on football sense.  He’s often out of position because he can’t read or anticipate plays.  He relies on his athleticism to bail him out which really doesn’t work in the SEC.  He’s not terrible but it’s just frustrating to watch someone with so much talent continually be out of position to make plays.  This is Hines’ fourth year on campus.  I’m hoping the light finally comes on for him and he plays up to his potential.

We’re finally starting to develop some depth at linebacker which we’ve been sorely missing for a few seasons.  Andre White and Aaron Hansford will back up Johnson and Hines.  Andre White was a true freshman and looked good for the times he played.  Aaron Hansford is a senior.  He came in as an offensive player but due to some injuries switched over to defense last year.  He really impressed me in how well he played at times.  I don’t think he’s an every down linebacker but he is a good situational guy.

Antonio Doyle is a true freshman coming in from St. Louis.  I believe he was the top player in the state of Missouri and is already 6’3”/250 so he has SEC LB size.  He’ll likely see some time and hopefully he’s seeing regular snaps by the end of the season.  We also have Chris Russell, Andre White, and Ke’Shun Brown who saw time as true freshman last year.  I don’t think they’ll make a major impact this season but it is nice to know we have some young depth on the roster.

This unit isn’t as good as the defensive line but it’s nice to finally see some talent and depth here.  We’ve been putting a Band-Aid on the linebacker position for what feels like 4-5 years now.

Secondary:

The secondary is a lot like the linebacker unit where we’ve been trying to Band-Aid it since Armani Watts left.

Demani Richardson is the anchor here.  He started last year as a true freshman and he’s really solid.  He’s as good as we’ve seen since Armani Watts.  I have no issues with him being the anchor for this secondary.

Leon O’Neal should be the starter at the other safety position but he’s a head case.  He’s got a load of talent but like Anthony Hines he’s often out of position.  O’Neal has also shied away from contact at times.  To make matters worse he flirted with transferring in the off season.  I have no idea what to make of him.  He seems like somebody that just likes the idea of playing football and the attention.  He doesn’t actually like playing football.  He’s got next level talent but his head last season looked like he was still in junior high.  There are rumors he’s finally taking football seriously so let’s hope that’s the case.  If he wants to see the next level he’s got a long way to develop.

Backing them up will Brian Williams and Keldrick Carper.  Brian Williams played at times last season and looked decent.  He’s not as talented as Richardson or O’Neal but he should improve with experience.  Carper is a 3-year letterman so he’s been around a while.  He’s improved but he’s still not as talented as the starters.  He does add nice depth.  If O’Neal falters I think you’ll see Williams and Carper rotate out at the other safety position.

Antonio Johnson is a true freshman that should be a safety at some point.  He’s got talent.  He shouldn’t make an impact in our secondary this season but it is nice to see Jimbo bringing in talent that can take some time to develop rather than getting thrown to the fire right away.

Corner is a bit of a toss up at this point.  This position used to be worse than our offensive line.  Smart teams would just completely expose this group.  It improved dramatically last season but still has a long way to go.

Elijah Blades and Myles Jones were looking to be the starters to begin the season.  It was always assumed Jaylon Jones would push Myles Jones at some point this season.  Jaylon Jones comes in as a true freshman but he’s really talented. 

That thinking has changed since Elijah Blades decided to sit out the season earlier this week.

Blades has battled injuries since he got to Aggieland so I’m guessing this is why he decided to sit out.  That doesn’t make much sense to me because this is a free season.  I think he’d be better off spending time on the practice field hoping to get healthy and get playing time.  

Either way this takes away some much-needed depth and talent in a position we can’t afford to lose depth or talent. 

Brian George is a talented junior college transfer so I think he’s now in the mix to start right away.  My hope is at some point this season Brian George and Jaylon Jones are our starting corner backs.  Nothing against Myles Jones but he doesn’t have the talent to regularly go against the top receivers in the SEC.

I think the plan all along for this season was to bring Jaylon Jones and Brian George slowly along to get the starting spots.  Blades’ announcement just likely changes the timing of that.

The wildcard in all of this is Erick Young.  Like Richardson and Jaylon Jones, Erick Young is SEC talented.  He’s also really versatile in what he can do defensively.  He’s been slated to basically play the nickel role mainly covering the slot receiver or defending the run.

Erick Young is going to see LOTS of action.  How he’s used is going to change each week and each series I have a feeling.  If Leon O’Neal plays to his talent then I think you’ll see Erick Young at corner back when a third linebacker is in there.  When a fifth defensive back comes in (the nickel formation) then I think you’ll see Young cover the slot receiver and another corner comes in.

To me Leon O’Neal is the difference maker here.  If he plays to his potential then you’re going to have Demani Richardson, Leon O’Neal, Jaylon Jones, and Erick Young getting most of the secondary snaps.  All four of those guys have SEC talent.  It would be nice to have Elijah Blades talent to add to the rotation in the nickel set but such is life.  If those four guys can play to the talent we’ll have the best secondary we’ve had in a good while.

We still need to improve this unit but it’s good to see there’s finally some talent and depth here.  It’s been sorely lacking.

Special Teams:

I honestly don’t now much about our special teams.  We lost Braden Mann and I’m still in mourning.  We obviously won’t be nearly as good at punter but I think we’ll be fine.  This is a unit that won’t win us any games but hopefully they don’t cost us any games.

Smith and Achane are likely our return guys which will be interesting as they have plenty of talent.  I just don’t know if they’re on Christian Kirk’s level.  Not many are.

For special teams here’s what I want to see:

  1. Give me a field goal kicker that’s 80% inside of 50 yards and over 95% inside of 30 yards.
  2. A punter that averages 45 yards in the air and 90% fair catches.
  3. Kick and punt returners that don’t fumble the ball and know when to take the ball at the 25 yard line.

That’s it.  Let the defense and offense win games.  Don’t make it harder on them.

Overall:

I really like this Aggie team except for the offensive line.  That’s obvious.  I wish things under Jimbo were a little further along but I still agree 100% with what Jimbo is doing.  If we hadn’t missed on 2-3 years of offensive line recruiting the outlook for this team would be completely different.  

This would truly be a team that could win the SEC and make the college football this season.  There’s still a chance we get there but there’s just a major hole in a key spot.  This is a young but very promising football team.

In my next post I’ll look at what all of this means from a wins and loss standpoint.  At the end of the day there’s only one metric in sports – Wins and Losses.

You have to win games to Make Aggie Football Great Again.

#MAFGA

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2019 Aggie Season Prediction

As we enter the 2019 Aggie Football season we all know about the difficult schedule.  Four games against teams ranked in the Top 6 of the Pre-Season Coach’s Poll.  This includes the Top 3.  Three of those four games are on the road.  The craziest thing about this schedule is it makes games against Auburn, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and even Ole Miss and Arkansas seem like after thoughts.  Nobody is even talking about the other 5 SEC games on the schedule.  We’re all focused on those four games.  It’s a daunting task but welcome to the SEC.

For the most part everyone would consider 8-4 a successful season.  That would be a solid season beating everyone else except for the teams ranked ahead of you.  I think 8-4 is a good barometer for this team in 2019.  However, it doesn’t mean this team can’t go 10-2 like the 2012 team.  The talent is certainly there but it’s young and inexperienced.  It’s even possible this team could catch lightening in a bottle and go 11-1 like the 2013 Auburn football team.  They lost to LSU early and then beat Georgia and Alabama in back to back games to get into the SEC Championship game where they won that game too.  They then went on to the national title game losing to Jimbo Fisher and FSU.  I don’t see A&M making the College Football Playoff but it’s not impossible if a few breaks go their way in close games.  College football can be funny sometimes.

It’s also possible this Aggie team loses those 4 games and then loses a couple other games going 6-6.  That would be an extremely disappointing season but depending on how those 6 losses played out it wouldn’t mean it’s a terrible team.  It would just mean they lost to some really talented teams and then didn’t get some breaks against teams as talented as them.

I did a preview on how I think the position groups look going into 2019 which you can read here:

https://rcwouldhavegonefor2.com/2019/07/10/2019-aggie-position-group-thoughts

I think these position groups in this order have the most influence on the final wins and losses for the Aggies in 2019:

  • Offensive Line
  • Linebackers
  • Wide Receivers
  • Quarterback
  • Secondary

The Secondary was our worst unit last year but I think we have enough influx of young talent that it will be markedly better.  I believe Armani Watts would have been worth at least one if not two wins more last season.  I think the addition of Leon O’Neal and Elijah Blades if they play to their talent and potential will make the Secondary much better.  I won’t get into details on the other groups as you can click the link but just wanted to clarify why I think our worst unit last year isn’t a higher question mark heading into 2019.

My last two season predictions have been spot on record wise.  I predicted 7-5 in 2017 and 8-4 in 2018.  I flipped the Florida and Mississippi State games in 2017.  In 2018 I was wrong on the Mississippi State and LSU games.

Here’s my game by game breakdown for 2019:

Texas State Bobcats:

Jake Spavital and his index card-based offense return to Kyle Field for his debut as a head coach.  Perfectly ironic.  You know I’m no fan of Jake Spavital as a coach.  I think he’s HIGHLY overrated.  I don’t think he’ll be any better as a head coach than he was an offensive coordinator.  I just wonder if he’ll have color coded index cards for offensive and defensive items so he doesn’t get confused.

The last time these two historic teams met on a Thursday night Hurricane Rita was barreling towards the coast.  That game wound up being closer than expected at 44-31 but I don’t see the same thing happening in this game.  That was Fran against David Bailiff and this is Jimbo against Spav.  Major advantage to the Aggies.

What I’d like to see in this game is a flawless first half with a score of 35-3 at half.  Have the starters play 2-3 series in the second half scoring another touchdown so it’s 42-6 at worst by the time the second units find their way in full time.

More than anything I want to see a healthy game with an offense and defense that control their side of the ball for most of the game.  Scores are hard to predict but just give me a healthy Aggie team that executes their game plan and controls the entire game.  I think we’ll see that.

WIN (1-0)

Clemson:

Of all the “Big 4” games I believe this is the most daunting game of them all.  This will be the first big start for a lot of our younger guys and we’re going on the road to Clemson.

There’s also these factors:

  • We’re not sneaking up on Clemson
  • This is a different team than we played within 2 points at Kyle Field
  • This is the biggest game on their schedule

We’re the highest ranked team on Clemson’s schedule by a large margin.  We’ll likely be coming in as the 11th ranked team in the country.  They have one other opponent ranked in the Top 25 on the rest of their schedule.  That team is Syracuse and they’re ranked at 22 headed into the season and play Clemson the week after us.

Clemson has their toughest two games in back to back weeks early in the season so there will be no surprising them.  They know if they can get through weeks 2 and 3 then they’re headed for the playoffs more than likely.  We’re their biggest game because if they can beat an SEC team that affords them a loss on their schedule and still easily make the playoffs if they win the ACC.  If they lose to A&M then their margin of error for the rest of the season becomes much smaller to make the playoffs.

In addition to motivation this is a different team than played at Kyle Field.  Their defensive line might not be as good but their defense will still be really damn good.  The big change will be on offense as Trevor Lawrence might be the best quarterback in college football.  He only played about 33% of the snaps against us last season.  In addition, Justyn Ross barely saw the field against us.  He was a true freshman but all he did was go on to lead Clemson in receiving last season.  In the national championship game he caught 6 balls for 153 yards including a 74-yard touchdown against the Bama secondary.  Against Notre Dame Ross caught 6 passes for 148 yards and two scores.  Needless to say we didn’t see what Ross had to offer in our game last season.  Lawrence and Ross might be the best QB/WR combo in the country so they’re going to test our young secondary.

This doesn’t even account for the rest of their roster which is loaded with talent.

I’ll likely do a more in-depth piece closer to the game.  It’s not an impossible win but it will take everything A&M has to pull off a victory in Clemson.  On paper right now I just don’t see it happening.  They’re the defending national champions for a reason.

Loss (1-1)

Lamar:

After taking on Clemson the Aggies get to come back to Kyle Field to take on Lamar.  This might be a minor let down game where the score is closer than it should be but I don’t see us losing this one.

We’ve got Auburn the week after so I think Jimbo can keep their focus.

Win (2-1)

Auburn:

I’m not sure what to make of this Auburn team.  They were under-achievers last season going 7-5 but they beat us.  They should have been 6-6 as we gave that game away.

They lose Jarret Stidham who didn’t quite achieve what he should have at quarterback under Gus Malzahn but he wasn’t terrible.  They look to start either Bo Nix who’s a true freshman or Tyler Gatewood who redshirted last season and didn’t take any significant snaps.  Gus is calling the plays again which will make things interesting.  It usually takes Gus a few games to get his quarterbacks in sync so I don’t think he’ll have his offense humming quite yet.  They’ll still be talented and will move the ball but I just question how much they’ll be able to score.

Defensively Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in the country.  The rest of their defense is solid as well.  Points won’t come easy for the Aggie offense.

This feels a lot like the Mississippi State game of last year with these two exceptions:

  • It’s at Kyle Field
  • There’s no Nick Fitzgerald

Jimbo appears to be making Kyle Field a home field advantage again and Nick Fitzgerald had our number so it’s good Auburn doesn’t have a guy like him.  This will be a game likely dominated by defensive line play shutting down the other offense for most of the game.  Welcome to old school SEC football.

I think the Aggies will scratch out just enough points to come out on top of this one but it won’t be easy.

Win (3-1)

Arkansas:

At some point we have to lose to Arkansas.  I just hope it’s not 2019 and I don’t think it will be.  2018 should have been the year they beat us but Chad Morris screwed up that one.  I’ll never understand why he chose to not attack our secondary from the get go.  If Arkansas comes out passing last season we probably lose that game.  I’m glad he didn’t as I like beating Arkansas.

Bret Bielema pretty much ran the Arkansas program into the ground from a talent standpoint.  Chad Morris has a daunting task in front of him and I don’t think he’s quite there yet.  I like Chad Morris and John Chavis as coaches but I don’t think they have the talent they really need to compete in the SEC.

This Arkansas team was 2-10 last season not winning a single SEC game along with losing to the likes of Colorado State and North Texas.  The lost to both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in Fayetteville and then were shut out 38-0 at Missouri to close the season.  That’s a really bad season for a program like Arkansas.

Despite that Morris recruited surprisingly well and obviously got Nick Starkel to transfer.  I know he’s an Aggie fan favorite and everyone thinks we’d win a national championship with him but I don’t think he’ll make a difference at Arkansas.  Aggies keep the winning streak alive.

Win (4-1)

Alabama:

My heart wants to say the Aggie win this game but my head says they’re not quite ready yet.  The Aggies will be coming off a bye week before this game but not sure it will matter.  Alabama will be too.

I think the most underrated thing Jimbo Fisher did in 2018 was not lose a conference game at Kyle Field.  You must go back to 1999 to find a season where the Aggies didn’t lose a conference game at home.  Dennis Franchione, Mike Sherman, and Kevin Sumlin never did that.  Jimbo did it in his first season.

I want to believe this trend continues in 2019 but Alabama is going to be a sticking point.  All Alabama did in 2018 was go undefeated until they lost to Clemson in the national championship game.  What a terrible coaching job by Nick Saban.  The dude won 14 games in a row but couldn’t win the 15th for the title.  He’s terrible.  Bama should just go ahead and fire him.

Tua is back at quarterback along with his fleet of receivers.  They’ll be salty through the air.  They lost some defenders to the NFL Draft but like a AAA baseball team they’ll have some new ones for the NFL to scout in 2019 for the 2020 NFL Draft.

It’s simply amazing what Saban has done at Bama.  I want to believe it’ll change and there’s a slide coming but I must see it with my own eyes first.  Until then Bama is Bama under Nick Saban and I think he hands Jimbo his first conference loss at Kyle Field.

I hope I’m wrong and some 2012 magic finds it’s way to Kyle Field.

Loss (4-2)

Ole Miss:

After Bama the Aggies head to Oxford to take on Ole Miss.  Oxford has been a weird place for us and this is a different Ole Miss team than we’ve played in the past.  They lost a lot of skill position talent on offense.  Even with that talent they were still bad though.

They were 5-7 last season and lost their last 5 SEC games.  I don’t think they’ll be any better in 2019 and will probably be worse.  I think they’ll battle Arkansas for the worst team in the SEC West.

Even with a potential Alabama hangover I think the Aggies will be fine and win this game.

Win (5-2)

Mississippi State:

Much like the Aggies have had Arkansas’ number the Mississippi State Bulldogs have had the Aggies’ number.  Since Johnny Football left for the NFL the Aggies have only beat Mississippi State once in five tries.

Outside of the Auburn game last season this loss was the most frustrating.  Mississippi State had two things going for them the Aggies simply couldn’t overcome:

  • Nick Fitzgerald
  • Three first round defensive starters

Nick Fitzgerald simply had the Aggies’ number.  In three starts he never lost to A&M.  He’s gone.  Thank goodness.

To compound matters last season the Bulldog’s had two defensive lineman that gave our offensive line problems all night.  Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat.  They’re gone along with Jonathan Abrams who was a solid safety.

Mississippi State was 8-4 last year but I think they take a decent step back this year.  I think they’ll struggle to make a bowl game as they lose a lot from last year’s team and I don’t think Joe Moorhead re-stocked it or Dan Mullen on his way out of town.

Couple all of that with it being at Kyle Field and I think the Aggies win this one pretty easily.

Win (6-2) BOWL ELIGIBLE

UTSA:

The final crappy game of the season at Kyle Field.  Those in charge of college football keep wondering why attendance keeps dropping but they keep putting crappy opponents at home.  Nobody wants to see these crappy teams past the first two weeks in September.  They really don’t even want to see them then.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – If A&M wins the SEC West they’ll have one game to prove their worth for the college football playoff.  You win the SEC championship game and you’re a lock for the college football playoff.  It’s as simple as that.

I’m not saying we have to play Texas but we shouldn’t be playing more than two crappy games a year at Kyle Field.  I think playing two is even a stretch.

You want attendance to improve?  Put some damn home games the fans care about going to.  UTSA ain’t one of them.

I know nothing about the Roadrunners but I know we win this game.

Win (7-2)

South Carolina:

I personally think South Carolina is the most underrated program in the SEC since Dan Mullen took off to Gainesville.  Will Muschamp has matured a lot since his Florida days and has built a solid program after Steve Spurrier.  That doesn’t mean they’ll win a lot of games but they won’t be easy to beat.  At best they’re shooting for third in the SEC East every season but they’re not a terrible football program like some others in the conference.

Jake Bentley returns for his 4th season as starting quarterback.  He’s a scrappy quarterback but he lost his best offensive weapon in Deebo Samuel.  Defensively they’ll be like they usually are where they’re fundamentally sound but just don’t have the talent to beat the more talented teams on their schedule.  Sleep on them and they’ll beat you though.

Like Arkansas we’ve never lost to South Carolina in the SEC.  That’s right, the illustrious Bonham Trophy has never seen the East side of the Mississippi River.  I don’t think it changes in 2019 either.

Win (8-2)

Georgia:

This Georgia game confuses me because I’m not sure who Georgia is right now.  Kirby Smart seems to have that program on a great foundation but they experience hiccups from time to time.  They lost some key offensive talent but they’ve recruited well and their recent history says they’ll still be one of the best teams in college football.

Two years ago, they were a half away from a national championship before they choked it away.  Last season they were a quarter away from the SEC Championship and headed to the playoffs before choking it away.  They then went on to get outplayed by Texas in the Sugar Bowl for the entire game.  Georgia had a couple of costly turnovers but if you watched the game you saw a Texas team whip Georgia at the line of scrimmage.  It wasn’t a good look.

At the end of 2018 there were plenty of question for if this Georgia team is really all that good.  There’s the 36-16 loss at LSU but that game was in Tiger Stadium and Georgia had 4 turnovers.  I’m chalking that game up to an anomaly during the Kirby Smart era.  Tiger Stadium can get the best of you.  Kirby Smart is 24-5 over the last two seasons.  Make no mistake Kirby Smart has an elite program in college football.  I don’t think that changes in 2019.

I went back and looked at the SEC teams that have lost the Sugar Bowl to a Big 12 team and what happened the following season.  That’s happened twice in the last decade with Alabama losing to Oklahoma after the 2013 season and then Auburn after the 2017 season.  Each team then went on to play in the SEC Championship game the following season.  It’s a small sample set for sure but losing to a Big 12 team in the Sugar Bowl doesn’t appear to have a detrimental effect on a program.  Sorry Big 12 fans.

Before I can really predict this game I want to see what Georgia does against Florida and even Notre Dame.  If Dan Mullen can compete and even beat Kirby Smart with Feleipe Franks then I’ll have confidence Jimbo can do the same with Kellen Mond.

Until I see Georgia truly falter in 2019 I must predict this as a loss for the Aggies.  They’re just a better program right now.  The short sample set of losing the Sugar Bowl doesn’t lead me to believe there’s any detrimental effect.   Georgia will continue to be an elite team and a force to be reckoned with.

Loss (8-3)

LSU:

Do you know we close the season at LSU?  Do you know we beat LSU in a 7 OT thriller last season?  Do you know that Coach O has circled this game on his calendar?

I believe this is the most important of the Big 4 games this season.  I know other wins will be more lustrous but if there’s only one to win of the Big 4 this is the game.  I said this when Jimbo came to Aggieland – As long as Nick Saban is at Alabama Jimbo’s most important task will be establishing Texas A&M as the second-best program in the SEC West above LSU and Auburn.  Beating LSU in back to back seasons will be a MAJOR feather in Jimbo’s cap.

Closing the season with another win over LSU does so much for the program when it comes to perception.  This will help with the media, recruits, and casual fans of Texas A&M.  To get to Alabama you must establish yourself above LSU first.  This win of the Big 4 will matter the most if you can only have one.  If we beat 2 of the 3 before this I don’t mind losing to LSU nearly as much but this is the biggest game on our schedule in my mind.

As for the game itself I have no idea what to expect right now.  There are just too many variables.  LSU loses a couple key guys on defense in Greedy Williams and Devin White.  Don’t be mistaken though as they’ll just re-load with talent that’s not far off from those guys.  Offensively Joe Burrows is back and while he’s not electric he’s as gritty as they come.  This will be a tough LSU team.

The biggest variable will be LSU’s record coming into the game.  If they lose to Texas, Florida, and Alabama then they might not be as motivated to beat us.  Coach O’s team is loaded with talent but he just seems to have games he loses when he should have won.  Those three stick out to me before we play them.

That Texas game seems like one of those games because it’s in Austin early in the season and Tom Herman has shown to be nails against higher ranked opponents.  I want to see LSU win that game but I think Texas knows they need it more.  Coach O might not have his charges ready.  If LSU loses that game they could be set up to lose a couple more before playing the Aggies.  The more they lose the less motivated they’ll be to beat A&M despite having it circled on their calendar.  That will help A&M’s chances of winning this game.

Even if LSU comes into the game with only a loss or two I don’t think it really changes A&M’s chances of winning this game.  Winning last year’s game got the proverbial monkey off their back.  The Aggies now know they can beat LSU.  The Aggies know LSU wants payback for an early Powerade celebration gone awry.  The Aggies don’t want to give it to them.  The Aggies will be plenty motivated to beat LSU regardless of how motivated LSU is.

I also believe that if 2020 is the year for the Aggies then this LSU game must be the launch point.  If this group is truly talented enough and motivated enough to win it all in 2002 they’ll beat LSU in 2019.  It won’t be easy but if Jimbo and his team are truly building something special for 2020 this is a moment we’ll look back to as a major phase in the building process.

I believe in Jimbo.  By the end of the season I believe this team will walk into Baton Rouge and make one more statement against LSU.  I believe the Aggies will take that step to 2020.

Win (9-3)

 

There you have it.  The Aggies will finish 9-3 and be the second-best team in the SEC West yet again.  They’ll make a New Years 6 Bowl game and be set for a 10-win season looking to 2020 for a solid chance to make the playoffs and the national championship.

I still believe there’s a chance this team does what the 2012 team did and go 10-2.  It’s not a far reach if the talent develops as the season wears on.  For now, I’m putting it at 9-3.  Even 9-3 is a daunting task when you look at the schedule and the youth on this team.  But as Jimbo says – Even you don’t bite as a puppy you won’t bite as a dog.  This Aggie team is gonna get some bites this season.

We just need Jake Spavital and his collection of index cards to get here sooner than later so we can start taking those bites.

Make Aggie Football Great Again
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If you want a Make Aggie Football Great Again hat we have some in stock.  They’re $20 including shipping.  You, your friends, and your family will look great in one for the 2019 Aggie Football season!  You can email chewyredding at yahoo dot com for more information.  Payment can be made by PayPal or Venmo.

The Ultimate Aggie Grill:

Aggie Grill small

At the 2019 Houston Coach’s Night the ultimate Aggie grill was on display.  Chaz Hammonds ’13 with Soul Fit Grill has created a maroon kamado grill.  As someone who has one of the big name kamado grills I can tell you this thing is on par quality wise.  It’s comparable in size to the XL of the big name brand for much less.  For $899 you get the grill, side boards, and stand.  If you’re in Houston he’ll even deliver for free.  If you’re in the market for a kamado grill give Chaz a look.  You won’t be disappointed.

Here’s a link to his website:

http://www.soulfitgrill.com/grills/the-legend-kamado-by-soulfitgrill

He also has a smaller grill if you’re looking for a smaller one:

http://www.soulfitgrill.com/grills/r4enfujd21dlcgtzq64zbkkbw8lyqe

Will the Aggies Be More Talented in 2019?

As we look upon the 2019 season here are my thoughts on the position groups for the Aggie football team.  Overall, we’ll be more talented but we will be VERY young.  We may only start one senior during much of the season.  That will be Michael Clemons.  He’s not even a senior due to missing last season to an injury but he’s listed as a senior on the Aggie football website.  We’ll go with that for now.  Colton Prater will likely start the season on the offensive line but he’s going to be in a battle all season to hold his spot.  I don’t think any of the senior DBs will start very long if they start at all.  Having two senior starters out of 22 should tell you how young this team will be.  Don’t mistake youth for talent though.  There will be talent.

We lose key starters at Center, Running Back, and Linebacker.  Not only were these guys talented but they were VERY experienced in the SEC.  All of them were three-year starters in the SEC and that’s tough to replace.

From a comparison standpoint I don’t think we’ll see the same drop off in talent/leadership we saw from 2012 to 2013 though.  That was Johnny/Sumlin’s first and second year where we lost some key people on the defensive side of the ball and didn’t realize it until the season was underway.  I don’t see 2018 to 2019 as being close to the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

We’ll probably see some hiccups early on as the younger guys get adjusted to playing full time.  I think by the end of the season the 2019 team will be better overall than the 2018 season.  At least I hope.

I believe Jimbo sees this season as a building year for 2020 and beyond.  That doesn’t mean he won’t try and win as many games as possible but I think he’s going to be focused more on developing his guys than worrying exactly about wins and losses.  That doesn’t mean we go 6-6 but I think 10-2 would be a stretch based on the lack of experience.  Jimbo has his method and he’s going to stick to it.  I think we all know 8-4 is the expected record for 2019.  Compete in every game and wind up with an 8-4 record and we’ll know things are on track.  Let’s not worry about the record just yet though.

As I talk about these guys nothing is meant to be personal.  They’re all Fightin’ Texas Aggies and damn glad to have them on the team.  I’m just trying to look at them objectively in how they match-up with the rest of the SEC and past Aggies.  I’m not trying to pump people full of maroon kool-aid and just trying to offer one person’s objective analysis for the position groups.

This is really long at 12 Word Doc pages so it’ll take some time to get through.  I’ve broken it into sections as much as possible so there’s natural stopping points.  Hopefully that allows you easy start and stop points as I don’t think many will be able to read it all at once.  If so, hopefully you don’t get too far behind with your daily work requirements.

With that, let’s get going…

Offense:

Offensive Line:

I’ll start with the offensive line.  I always feel this is the most crucial unit to any football team.  If your OLine can’t hold their own at the line of scrimmage it doesn’t really matter how good the rest of your offense is.  An offense can score points without an effective offensive line but it won’t be able to sustain drives.  Winning football games is about sustaining drives.  That starts with the offensive line.

We have a MAJOR departure along the offensive line in Erik McCoy.  McCoy was probably the best center we’ve had in the last 2 decades of Aggie football.  He might be the best center of all time considering his competition.  Patrick Lewis is up there but I think McCoy is the best one we’ve had.  You don’t just plug someone in his place.

Ryan McCollum is all set to take over at center.  By all accounts he’s done a great job this off season.  He started a handful of games last year at guard along with filling in for McCoy a couple of times.  He’s a two-year letterman with experience.  If the reports are true I’m not terribly concerned but there’s no way he’s matching McCoy’s production.  There will be a step down at center.  Those are just big shoes to fill.

Guard worries me the least as we’ve got decent talent and depth here.  Right now, I’d say Jared Hocker and Colton Prater are the penciled in starters.  They’re going to face serious heat from Tank Jenkins and maybe even Kenyon Green.  Jenkins is probably more talented than both but doesn’t have the experience.  Hocker can probably hold onto his spot but Prater is in question.  I hope Jenkins takes the other spot as he appears to be really talented.  Nothing against Prater.  All things being mostly equal I’d rather see talent get the nod over experience this season.  Either way there’s going to be some battles in summer practice and even during the season which is not a bad thing.  I think we’ll be okay at the guard spots.

At tackle I have my concerns.  We currently have Dan Moore Jr at left tackle and Carson Green at right tackle.  Green is serviceable but neither of these guys are great at pass blocking.  Moore especially struggled last season.  He’ll be a three-year starter but I just don’t think he has the raw talent.  There’s not much talk of this guy other than he’s our starting left tackle.  Seriously.  He’s just kind of our left tackle by default.  In the SEC you need a stud at left tackle.  The SEC is loaded with guys that love to rush the blind side of the quarterback.  Your left tackle must be able slow them down.  I don’t have the exact stat but I’d wager half of Mond’s sacks last year were guys Moore was assigned to.  He just didn’t develop much all season.  He even got owned in the Gator Bowl until we started running the ball and ran it away from his side.

Maybe these two guys develop but I just don’t see it happening to the level we’ll need.  I’d be okay with Kenyon Green taking over the left tackle spot if Moore struggles.  I think it hasn’t been talked about because Kenyon didn’t go through Spring Ball.  There’s no idea how he’ll adapt to the next level.

There’s been talk of him competing at guard in 2019.  If that’s the case I’m of the mindset to just groom him at left tackle from the get go.  If he’s as good as advertised he should be starting at left tackle going into next year.  Let’s see if he responds.

Maybe Moore changes my mind but I just don’t see it happening based on what I’ve seen from him so far.  He reminds me of all the tackles we had before the run of Joeckel, Matthews, and Ogbeuhi.  There’s a difference in superior talent and I don’t think he has it.  Name me one really good tackle in the last two decades beside those three guys.  Moore just seems to be in that group you can’t name.  That won’t work very well in the SEC.

As far as Jim Turner’s departure I’m not too concerned about that.  Much like Jeff Banks I think Turner’s reputation got built up by message boards because of how he looked and acted.  This would have been his fourth season as OLine coach and we have minimal talent and depth.  He deserves some blame for not recruiting and developing enough talent over the last 4 years.  Based on what we’ve seen Josh Henson is doing a pretty good job on the recruiting trail.  We now get to see what he can do developing talent.  Something tells me Turner’s departure was a mutual one and didn’t catch Jimbo by surprise.  Coaching doesn’t bother me on the offensive line coming into 2019.  Talent and depth does.

Running Back:

Like the offensive line we lose a MAJOR presence at running back coming into 2019.  Trayveon Williams was a complete stud in 2018.  He was solid in 2016 and 2017 but he took it to a different level in 2018.  He showed discipline waiting on plays to develop along with improving his pass blocking as the season wore on.  He really was a complete back by the time it was all said and done in 2018.  It would have been great to have him back.  He had nothing else to prove at the college level so I hope he continues on his development path at the next level.

Jashaun Corbin looks like a solid enough replacement.  No way he has the year Williams had in 2018 but I don’t think it will be a major step down.  Corbin isn’t as fluid as Williams searching for holes but he’s more explosive.  In his time in maroon and white he’s shown he can fill most of Williams’ shoes.  I’m okay with him at starter.

The biggest issue at running back is who backs up Corbin.  There’s lots of names but also unknowns.  The Vernon Jackson neck injury is out there.  Jacob Kibodi has flashed potential but also very inconsistent when it comes to protecting the ball.  Cordarrian Richardson is a big back and was decent at UCF but hasn’t seen a snap in the SEC.  Deneric Prince had two carries last year.  These guys have potential but none of them have produced anything other than Corbin.

My hope is Isiah Spiller comes in and repeats what Trayveon and Jashaun did which is prove they belonged on the field as true freshman.  Corbin is going to get the brunt of the carries so we don’t need much depth but we certainly need some.  If Spiller can repeat what Trayveon and Jashaun did their freshman years along with Richardson proving to be an occasional hammer I think we’ll be fine here.  Jimbo has done a nice job recruiting talent and depth at this position.  We just need to see some consistent production by someone with a different last name than Corbin.

Tight End:

We lose our most productive receiving threat across the board in Jace Sternberger.  Sternberger didn’t just lead tight ends in receiving.  He lead ALL RECEIVERS in yards and touchdowns.  Production wise he’s a lot to replace.

If Baylor Cupp is as good as advertised I think we’ll be fine.  What I’m about to say on Sternberger is not a knock.  He’s an exceptional athlete and clearly a great worker.  However, I think Sternberger was as much a product of scheme as it was raw talent.  He found himself wide open a lot of times due to great play design.  Sternberger certainly did a lot after the catch but I think his efforts can be replicated due to Jimbo knowing how to leverage an athletic receiving tight end.

Remember Sternberger’s experience prior to A&M was Kansas and some JUCO in Oklahoma that’s not even a big name.  He did just fine in one year in the SEC.

I believe Cupp can do the same by the end of the season.  I think Cupp is more talented than Sternberger but he’s going to have some growing pains in his first couple of games.  He’s a true freshman.  Cupp had a nice touchdown in the M&W game but it was not the coming out party Sternberger had last Spring.  Sternberger made his presence known in the M&W game.  Cupp didn’t.  By the second half of the season Cupp should be doing the same thing Sterberger was.  It might take a few games before Cupp really gets going but I think he’ll replace Sternberger just fine when it’s all said and done.

Trevor Wood is gone as the blocking tight end but Glenn Beal looked decent as a true freshman.  We don’t expect a lot of blocking from our tight ends so it’s not a big a deal but Wood was definitely used to help our tackles out last season.

Jalen Wydermyer has the talent to be somewhere between Cupp and Beal.  We’ll just see how he adapts to playing tight end in the SEC.  He may not get the attention Cupp does so it might work to his advantage.  He may find himself open a few times because no one’s focused on him.

This group has me the least concerned for replacing major production from last season.  It would have been great to see Sternberger come back but we should be fine.  If Cupp can live up to his talent potential I wouldn’t be shocked to see him exceed Sternberger’s receiving production in 2019.  Jimbo’s coaching and recruiting so far shows he knows what to do with tight ends so I’m not too concerned.

Wide Receiver:

For whatever reason I think I’m in the minority when it comes to this position group.  I’m not impressed with any of these guys at all.  I don’t think they pass the eyeball or statistic test.  Eyeball wise I certainly wouldn’t put any of these guys up with the names like Evans, Kirk, Swope, Reynolds or even Fuller and Ferguson if you want to go back quite a few years.  They make plays at times but they’re just not that consistent.  They certainly didn’t take over any games in 2018.

Before I talk about these guys individually look at this chart showing the cumulative stats for the 2019 Aggie receivers.  Hopefully it opens your eyes a little:

Number Player Games Catches Yards Avg TDs Long Per Game
81 Sternberger, Jace 13 48 832 17.33 10 53 64
1 Davis, Quartney 13 45 585 13 7 37 45
14 Buckley, Camron 13 34 474 13.94 1 69 36.46
2 Ausbon, Jhamon 9 31 375 12.1 0 26 41.67
13 Rogers, Kendrick 12 27 336 12.44 5 30 28
5 Williams, Trayveon 13 27 278 10.3 1 38 21.38
9 Jones, Hezekiah 13 15 134 8.93 0 18 10.31
7 Corbin, Jashaun 12 10 85 8.5 0 16 7.08
6 Paul, Roshauud 13 6 70 11.67 0 25 5.38
12 Gillaspia, Cullen 13 5 52 10.4 0 21 4
80 Wood, Trevor 13 2 17 8.5 0 9 1.31
22 Etwi, Kwame 8 1 16 16 0 16 2
10 Preston, Jalen 8 1 14 14 1 14 1.75

Believe it or not Quartney Davis was our most productive receiver last year from a statistical standpoint.  Even then that was only 585 yards and 7 touchdowns.  That’s a decent amount of touchdowns but that’s a terribly low amount of yards for your leading receiver that’s not a tight end.  There should be someone surpassing 800 yards and even pushing close to 1,000 yards.  Hopefully there’s two of those guys.  I think that chart shows just how productive Trayveon was.

I know Jhamon Ausbon missed 4 games but even if you extrapolate out his numbers he’d have under 550 yards receiving with no touchdowns.  That’s supposed to be your number one receiver.  I know he’s a Michael Irvin style possession guy and he’s great at getting 6-12 yards but that’s it.  He doesn’t seem like a guy that can go down the field and win one on one battles.  I like him as a roster guy as he provides needed talent and depth in a key role but he’s not making the All SEC receiving team at any level any time soon.

Cam Buckley had the longest reception for 69 yards last season.  No other receiver caught a pass longer than 37 yards.  Trayveon had a screen play for 38 yards that was longer than any receiver not named Sternberger or Buckley.  I’m sorry but that’s not going to cut it in the SEC.  Especially if you want to compete with the elite teams in the SEC.  You need a dominant one on one receiver that can stretch the field.  Ideally you have a dominant one on one receiver and a true deep threat to compliment that receiver.  Right now I don’t think A&M has either of those.

I know everyone is high on Kendrick Rogers but I don’t see him more than a red zone target.  I’ve said it before if he’s not running downfield and just facing the quarterback he’s an outstanding receiver.  He really struggles to run downfield routes.  If he’s having to take steps forward AND look for the ball he doesn’t have the same set of hands.  I want him in the red zone no doubt but the rest of the field is a major question for me right now.

Jalen Preston was supposed to be as talented as they come but he didn’t do anything in 2018.  He had one catch for 14 yards.  Even in the SEC if you’re going to be a great player you’re making plays your true freshman year.  Look at what Christian Kirk did his true freshman year.  Nobody on this roster comes close to that guy right now.  Not a single guy can be even remotely compared to Christian Kirk.

From a recruiting standpoint we’re bringing in some nice guys from the 2019 class but I think they’re more of the same.  They’ll need some time to develop.  Dylan Wright might be the exception as he’s got the height and speed to be a downfield threat.  We’ll just have to see how he adjusts to the SEC.

I just don’t see the overall talent for this to be anything more than an average unit.  It’ll be productive at times but I don’t see this unit dominating the SEC at all.  To their credit some of it’s by design as Jimbo wants to control the ball and time of possession.  I know some will blame Mond but if you watch these guys run routes it’s just an average receiving corps for the most part.  There’s nothing super impressive about anything these guys do other than Rogers catching balls in the end zone.  Davis will flash from time to time.  Ausbon will get you a first down when you need 5-6 yards.  That’s all good stuff but there needs to be more.

I really believe the best collection of receiving talent tied to this program is the three guys that are our verbal commits for 2020.  Demond Demas, Muhsin Muhammed, and Troy Omeire will be in the 2020 two deep the moment they’re on campus.  A couple if not all three will either be starters or logging significant minutes in 2020.  Those guys are outstanding but in no way should three true freshmen come in and take over starting spots.  I honestly think it could happen if this current group doesn’t take a massive step beyond what they did in 2018.

Caleb Chapman could be a wildcard here as he could be the deep threat we need if it’s not Dylan Wright.  He missed pretty much all last season with a leg injury.  Can’t remember if it was his knee or ankle.  He’s around 6’5” and appears to have the top end stride speed that deep threats must have.  Think Josh Reynolds.  I’m not saying Chapman will be Josh Reynolds but physically he has the same characteristics.  If Chapman can emerge as a guy that’s even close to what Reynolds did then he could change the entire outlook for this receiving corps.  He may not show it statistically but if he can keep safeties looking back it will help open the middle of the field for the other guys to make some plays.

I REALLY want this unit to step up and be much more productive.  Based on what my eyes and the stats tell me there’s a LONG ways to go.  I’m just not sure they can get there.  I certainly hope they prove me wrong.

Quarterback:

I’m not going to spend too much time on Kellen Mond.  It’s like talking politics.  Everyone has their opinion and you’re not likely changing anyone’s mind discussing it.  I’ve never seen an Aggie quarterback so polarizing.  It really feels like half of Aggie fans support him and the other half don’t like him.

It’s kind of obvious but Kellen Mond will be the reason this team gets to the 9 and even 10 win level in the regular season.  He’ll have to improve his game by a large margin from last season.  At Houston Coach’s Night Jimbo mentioned he felt like he was speaking Chinese to Kellen much of last season.  Jimbo believes Mond has digested their first year together and he’s ready to go to the next level.  Maybe its coach speak but if Kellen can advance his game beyond last year that’s going to cause the Aggies to take a MAJOR step forward in their building plan.  I’m talking wins and losses in that regard.

Kellen is obviously talented enough to do it.  He’s made some outstanding reads and plays but he’s also made some questionable reads and plays.  He’s all about being more consistent in understanding plays and executing them.  We won’t see Kellen in the Heisman talk and that’s okay.  What I want to see at worst is the Aggies competing in every game with Kellen leading the charge to victory no making mistakes.  If Kellen can do that consistently he’ll change a lot of doubters.  I could be wrong though.  People may just always dislike Kellen like the President they didn’t vote for.

As for the backup losing Starkel hurts but I think it’ll be okay.  If Mond stays healthy he’s Jimbo’s guy.  Nobody else stands a chance to take snaps.  No need to have Starkel hanging around if that’s the case.  As for who will be the backup I think it’s Calzada.  Blumrick and Foster seem to be okay but Calzada appears to be a step above them talent wise.  He had a decent M&W game so he just needs to keep getting reps.

I believe Jimbo’s ideal scenario is to have Calzada back up Mond for two seasons and then be ready to step in as the starter in 2021.  If Mond falters then throw Calzada in there and see what happens.  Calzada certainly looks like he has the physical talent to be a top-flight quarterback so let’s find out sooner than later.  Kirby Smart went to a national championship game with Jake Fromm as a true freshman.  Sometimes you just have to find out if a guy can play or not.  I’m fine with Calzada seeing the time behind Mond.  It could also potentially free up a couple of scholarships if Blumrick or Foster want to transfer knowing they’ll always be on the outside looking in at getting snaps.

Overall Offense:

I think this offense can be just as good as last season and maybe even better.  I don’t think it will look the same and that’s fine.  I don’t think there’s anyway we have the same run game as last season.  Trayveon and McCoy were just that good.

I think it will still be very much focused on winning time of possession and total number of offensive plays.  That means a lot of running plays which is fine.  There will still be plays designed to set up other plays through the air.  It won’t be the inconsistent offense we’ve seen under previous staffs.  Those would either strike quickly or go three and out.  That’s not Jimbo’s style and I’m good with that.

It’s possible we don’t miss a beat on the ground with Corbin and the offensive line.  If that happens along with Kellen Mond and the receiving corps taking a big step forward from last year this could be a really potent offense.  I hope the receiving corps proves me wrong and I hope Kellen proves that half of Aggie fans that question him wrong.  We all just want to score more points than the other team in every game.  I believe we can all agree on that.

Defense:

Defensive Line:

Outside of McCoy and Trayveon there’s no doubt the defensive line was the shining part of this team last year.  They likely were more valuable than those two guys.  They were tremendous all damn season.  The defensive line kept our linebackers clean and limited the exposure of a shaky secondary.  I think we were 3rd against the run in all of the NCAA last season in a run first conference.  The defensive line last year was just legit.

We lose a lot with Keke, Mack, and Durham.  Those guys played amazing ball all season.  Despite their departures I believe the defensive line will be better.  We have some experienced and talented guys coming back.  We also have some talented youth to add in the mix.

The defensive line will start with Justin Madubuike at defensive tackle.  This guy is a legit playmaker.  He’s disruptive like Daylon Mack and he can make plays.  His stats basically mirrored Mack’s last season so I think we’ll see them progress as he gets more playing time.  He’ll probably wind up leaving early and in many ways I hope he does.  That’ll mean he had an awesome junior year.  We’ve got depth to cover him in 2020.  Go ahead and set yourself up as a first rounder, Justin.

I think Bobby Brown will kind of play the role of Kingsley Keke last year moving inside to play a lot of defensive tackle depending on team and formation.  Bobby Brown is a giant man that can move.  He came in as a defensive end but has grown into a defensive tackle for the most part.  Brown may move out to defensive end against run heavy teams and certain formations but I think he’ll spend a lot of time inside with Madubuike wreaking havoc.

Jayden Peevy will rotate in quite a bit with Madubuike and Brown while Josh Rogers and Mohamed Diallo provide some really nice depth.  Peevy is no slouch but I think on pure talent Madubuike and Brown can be as good as any pair of defensive tackles in the country.  They should see a lot of snaps together.

At defensive end we’ll likely see Michael Clemons and Tyree Johnson starting.  Clemons is coming off missing all last season but appears to be healthy.  He’s loaded with talent so if he’s healthy he’s going to be outstanding.  Johnson is coming off a good freshman season.  I suppose there’s some question marks of what these guys look like starting over a full season but I’m not terribly worried.  They should be really damn good.

Backing them up will be a host of guys.  Jeremiah Martin brings the most experience and DeMarvin Leal brings the most talent.  Leal missed the spring with a knee injury but the reports on this guy is he’s a physical specimen.  Jimbo really feels he might have been the best recruit in the country last season.  If he’s healthy and lives up to his potential he’s going to be a big contributor in 2019.  We’ll just have to see.

Beyond those guys there’s also Max Wright who was a four start recruit. He’ll find his way onto the field for playing time but how much will be dictated by his development along with the health off the guys above him.  Having Max Wright as your 5th defensive end is a major luxury.  He’d likely be starting on most teams in the country.

This defensive line may not get the press of Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, or whoever else.  Make no mistake if they’re not on the same level they’re not far behind.  I don’t think it’s a far stretch to say this defensive line could be the best in the country.  It certainly could be in 2020.  There’s some serious talent here.  It just needs to develop and stay healthy.

Linebacker:

This position is my greatest fear for the 2019 Aggie football team.  I don’t think most people realize how fortunate last year’s team was in keeping Alaka and Dodson healthy all season.  They missed a little time here and there but they never missed a full game from what I remember.  They certainly benefited from the defensive line but those two guys were unsung heroes making plays right behind the defensive line all season.  They could be sorely missed as there’s just no depth and real experience at this position.

Buddy Johnson and Anthony Hines are penciled in as their replacements.  Johnson has two years experience but never as a starter.  I also think he’s not quite as talented as Alaka or Dodson.  He’s not terrible but he’s got some big shoes to fill if we’re to not miss a beat losing those two guys.

Anthony Hines is VERY highly rated but has no real experience.  He’s battled the depth chart and injuries his entire time at A&M.  He has the potential but just hasn’t done much.  If he lives up to his talent and stays healthy he’ll be fine filling the role of Dodson or Alaka.  I just have to see both before I can get excited about what he offers.

Beyond those two guys it becomes a major crap shoot.  Braden White has the size but I’m not sure he has the ability.  He may wind up being the 12th Man and I don’t really want a walk on playing linebacker.  Sure it makes for a great story but Cullen Gillaspia got moved to fullback because he couldn’t cut it at linebacker.  There’s not really a precedent for the 12th Man playing linebacker at a high level.

Andre White showed some potential in the M&W game but he’s a true freshman.  True freshman don’t wind up doing very well at linebacker in the SEC unless they’ve killed a bear with their hands.  I don’t think he’s done that.  Aaron Hansford moved over from receiver after playing some linebacker in high school.  He certainly has the athleticism but does he have the instincts?  Instincts tend to matter more than talent at linebacker.  Ikenna Okeke has some potential but had his entire season cut short by an injury last season.  He’s another unknown.

We’ve got some other true freshman coming in at linebacker.  I think Chris Russell and KeShun Brown who have the desired size might add some depth.  I just don’t see them contributing a lot as true freshmen.  You know my bear theory and I don’t think these guys have killed bears with their hands either.

There are certainly several bodies to try and throw at the linebacker position.  We’ll see if it works out with raw numbers.  I’m afraid it won’t totally work out with talent.  We still need help with future development and recruiting.

I hope some guys step up and fill the shoes of Alaka and Dodson.  I’m just fearful they won’t and this will look like the 2018 secondary.  The real test is how many 5 to 15 yard runs the opposing offense rips off against us.  That’s the real test of the linebackers.  When running backs are getting an additional 5-10 yards beyond the defensive line that’s because the linebackers aren’t doing their job.  They’re either blocked or out of position.

I also don’t want to be in a position where the safeties are forced to stop the run game.  In the SEC you need linebackers that can help shut down the run.  If not, teams will expose you up the middle.  We’ll just have to see if this group can step up and match last season’s production.

Secondary:

The 2019 Aggie secondary will be a good attitude test for people.  You’ll likely either see a glass half full or a glass half empty.  The 2018 Aggie secondary was far and away the biggest Achilles heel of last year.  Time and time again it was either burned through the air or failed to make a play when it mattered most.  We would have likely won the Clemson and Auburn games had the secondary made one key play in each game.  They wouldn’t even have been amazing plays.  There were a couple of plays in both of those games where the secondary was just completely out of position to defend a pass or didn’t take down a receiver with the ball at contact.  They make one of those plays and we have another win last year.  They make two plays in each game and we have two more wins.

The good news is if you compare this year’s secondary to last year’s it can’t get any worse.  You can see the glass half full.  If you compare this year’s secondary to where it should be you’ll see it as half empty.  They’re going to make a few mistakes.

From my standpoint I don’t want to see anyone in the secondary from last season starting other than Leon O’Neal.  It’s not a knock on them personally but they’re just not that good.  I don’t see how it’s possible they make a serious leap from last year to this year.  Because of that, I don’t see any point in them logging serious minutes.  I’m fine with guys like Derrick Tucker, Larry Pryor, Jr, Keldrick Carper, Myles Jones, Debione Renfro, and Charles Oliver logging minutes but there’s more talented guys that need to get experience sooner than later.  One of those guys can regularly play the nickel but that’s about as far as I want it to go.

If Jimbo’s recruiting, player development, and coaching are on point then Elijah Blades and Erick Young should be our starting corners.  At least by mid-season for both.  Blades is a highly coveted JUCO transfer so I’m really hoping he’s starting the first game.  We need serious help at corner.  Blades locking down a spot to start the season would go a long way to improving the 2018 performance.

Young is a five-star recruit.  He’ll certainly have a learning curve but at worst he should have a Leon O’Neal year where he shows improvement every game and by the end of the season shows he’s ready to take over the position.  I think his development should be advanced as the sooner he gets reps the better off he’ll be long term.  There’s no red shirting this kid so let’s see what he’s got.

At safety Leon O’Neal clearly has one spot locked down and he looks like he’s the real deal.  He should only build on where he ended last season.  At the other spot I’m hoping Demani Richardson or Brian Williams can establish themselves in the other spot.  They’re both really talented.

I’m probably being too ambitious so I’m guessing the real secondary will be a combination of Blades and O’Neal with the best of the rest filling out the other corner and safety spot.  Even if that’s the case I can’t imagine how this secondary is any worse than last season.  With the talent and experience they bring to the table in 2019 those guys will be better than any group we started last season.  At least they better be.

This secondary will still make mistakes giving up plays they shouldn’t.  It should be better to the point where it’s a serviceable unit as opposed to a vulnerable unit like last season.  I’m still shocked anyone tried to establish the run on us last season.  What Elko and Jimbo did defensively last season with that weak of a secondary was remarkable.  It really was.  Mike Elko and his defensive staff were the true MVPs of the 2018 season.  We’re likely 6-6 without them.

Overall:

Buddy Johnson and Anthony Hines will be the key to any defensive improvements in 2019.  If they can stay healthy and come close to the production of Alaka and Dodson this defense will see big improvement.  As crazy as it is to say I think the defensive line will be the biggest improvement over 2018 once they figure out their true roles and rotations.  That 2018 defensive line was the best we’ve seen in some time.  That’s a major statement to make but I believe the 2019 defensive line will be better when it’s all said and done.

The secondary should be vastly improved at two positions if not more.  Maybe the youngsters don’t need to be thrown to the wolves right away but O’Neal and Blades starting should be a major boost.  The 2020 secondary should take another major step so the 2019 secondary should be a preview of things to come.

We’re also still missing a serious pass rush specialist like Myles Garrett or Von Miller.  I think the defensive line will be disruptive enough by creating schemes where someone will consistently be in the backfield forcing the quarterback to throw sooner than later.  It won’t be one guy but a mix of guys applying pressure.  I think we’ll be fine there.

It’s all about filling those linebacker spots.  Cross your fingers.

Special Teams:

Punter:

Not much to say about Braden Mann.  He led the NCAA with a 51 yard per punt average last season.  We all saw what he did.  He’s the best punter at A&M since Shane Lechler and is probably better.

I can’t say enough about this kid.  The statistics bear it out but he’s just special to watch.  His ability to kick different punts at key times is uncanny.  The dude can sky it, angle it, and most importantly he has this booming liner.  I’ve never seen someone punt a ball like him where it’s a low trajectory screamer that’s covering 60 yards in the air.  It’s like watching Tiger Woods and John Daly drive golf balls in the late 90s.  Nobody else can do what he does.

Multiple times last year he completely flipped the field.  I’m talking we’re snapping the ball from our 20-yard line and the other team winds up snapping the ball from their 20.  It wasn’t complete luck either.  He could just put the ball in a spot where the punt returner couldn’t get it and watch it roll.  The returner would wind up chasing it down while the punt coverage team was able to get down and convene around the returner limiting the return.

I assume he can repeat 2018 and that’s all I ask.  I don’t need improvement.  He just needs to do the same thing he did in 2018 and nothing more.  He’s one of the rare punters that is truly able to keep points off the scoreboard.  Enjoy him while we can.  Guys like this don’t happen very often.

Kicker:

Seth Small is the incumbent at placekicker.  He’s pretty good but needs to develop some consistency.  He was 19 of 26 with a long of 52.  That’s a bit shy of 75% so he’s got to be better than that.  He was 3-3 in games against Bama and LSU so pressure doesn’t seem to bother him.  He was also 34-34 on extra points.  Extra points appear automatic.  Hopefully he improves his accuracy to at least 80% if not better.

Caden Davis is a true freshman coming in and apparently has a major leg.  He hit a 57 yarder in high school.  He also hit a 76-yard field goal practicing on July 4th.  If Seth Small struggles at least we have a guy with a big leg backing him up.

Let’s just hope Seth Small improves his consistency.

Returners:

I know a lot of people don’t like Roshauud Paul because he’s not Christian Kirk but I like the guy.  He’s REALLY good about catching punts.  Most importantly he seems to have that knack for knowing when to fair catch and knowing when there’s safe room to run.  Guys like Kirk returning kicks don’t happen along every season.  If you don’t have a Kirk then you better have someone that’s good at catching punts.

Nothing changes momentum like a fumbled punt recovered by the punt team.  Think back to the 2011 Texas game when Dustin Harris fumbled the punt in the second quarter.  Texas ran a trick play on the next play and scored a touchdown.  That was a major momentum swing letting Texas back in the game.  I don’t like fumbling punts.  There’s no Christian Kirk on this team that’s a threat to take it to the house.  Give me the guy that can catch the damn ball and doesn’t get cute trying to do too much.

As for kick returns I’m not sure who all we’ll have doing this.  Corbin did it last year as the backup tailback but I don’t see him doing it this year as the starting tailback.  I’m confident Jimbo and his staff will find two capable guys to do this.

Summary:

I’m certainly high on the talent for Texas A&M for 2019.  The experience and depth at a couple spots give me some concern on how that looks for wins and losses.  The ultimate judge of any season is actual wins and losses.  Moral victories are okay but in the end they’re still losses.  Nobody likes losing.

I’ll do my season prediction in the next blog but I think A&M is going to be better as a whole compared to the 2018 team.  Jimbo has done an outstanding job of bringing in depth and talent in just two recruiting classes.  There’s still a way to go but the 2019 Aggie football team will have more talent and ability across the board than the 2018 team.  I feel confident about that.

If Mond and the receivers take the next step and the linebackers do what was done last year this team can compete with anyone in the country.  There’s only one way to find out and that’s to snap the ball.  Labor Day Weekend can’t get here soon enough.

 

Make Aggie Football Great Again!
#MAFGA

 

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We’ll post our season prediction in the next few weeks and then do a re-cap of each game throughout the season.

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The Ultimate Aggie Grill:

Aggie Grill small

At the 2019 Houston Coach’s Night the ultimate Aggie grill was on display.  Chaz Hammonds ’13 with Soul Fit Grill has created a maroon kamado grill.  As someone who has one of the big name kamado grills I can tell you this thing is on par quality wise.  It’s comparable in size to the XL of the big name brand for much less.  For $899 you get the grill, side boards, and stand.  If you’re in Houston he’ll even deliver for free.  If you’re in the market for a kamado grill give Chaz a look.  You won’t be disappointed.

Here’s a link to his website:

http://www.soulfitgrill.com/grills/the-legend-kamado-by-soulfitgrill

He also has a smaller grill if you’re looking for a smaller one:

http://www.soulfitgrill.com/grills/r4enfujd21dlcgtzq64zbkkbw8lyqe

Thoughts from Houston Coach’s Night

Jimbo Coach's Night

Nobody knows the eventual outcome of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure at Texas A&M.  He may never win the SEC West or he may win multiple national titles.  Only time will tell.  The telling thing will be how much he wins and loses.  It’s the only thing that matters in sports.  Sure, you want to win with integrity but at the end of the day the only thing fans really care about is wins and losses.  Jimbo’s tenure will be judged on wins and losses.  This much we know.

When Jimbo was hired I said if he doesn’t win big we might as well shut the Aggie Football program down.  I feel no different after seeing him at the Houston A&M Club Coach’s Night.  For 45 minutes Jimbo talked football and Aggieland at a pace that made the auctioneer on stage before him seem like he was talking slow.  This was after flying back from Atlanta where he spent all day talking at SEC Media Days.  Sure, he flew on a private jet so it wasn’t like he was fatigued from travel but regardless the man rattled off things about his team and Texas A&M at a pace and length most people in the audience couldn’t keep up with.  They became dis-interested not because what he said was boring but because their brain couldn’t keep up with Jimbo’s words.  Seriously.  Some people at my table gave up trying to follow along with what he was saying.  It got me excited.  You needed your brain’s full capacity to catch every word Jimbo was saying.

It’s clear Texas A&M finally has a legitimate football coach again.  It’s been since around 1995 that we’ve been in this situation.  The last legitimate football coach we had was R.C. Slocum before Mack Brown, Nick Saban, and Bob Stoops arrived on the scene and R.C. lost his way.  I’ll get to that in more detail in a bit.  I finally feel confident we have a coach with no question marks when it comes to being a college head football coach.

I won’t get into the details of what he said as it’s the same thing he’s said repeatedly in other press conferences but it’s crystal clear Jimbo Fisher knows and loves coaching football.  Jimbo carried a small piece of paper to the podium with a few notes but for 45 minutes he spoke completely from his brain.  His brain is filled with football knowledge.  Players, schemes, technique, coaches, and motivation he covered it all.  He knows football is a complex sport that combines all those things.  His brain is constantly thinking about all those things combined.  He’s very focused and he’s very driven.  That much is clear.  He wasn’t up there speaking to speak.  He was speaking about his knowledge and his expectations.  He constantly thinks and works to win football games.  He understands it’s not just plays and players that matters.  It’s every drill about technique in practice that matters.  It’s about his staff.  It starts with a bunch of individual things that must be combined to work in unison.  He knows he’s the leader and it starts with him.  He’s going to set the example for work and knowledge.

In addition to his football knowledge he’s quickly learned his A&M knowledge.  It was impressive the things he’s already realized about Aggieland.  He’s not learning about Aggieland to just speak about it.  He’s doing it because he’s figuring it out how it will help him win football games.  He’s using it to help recruit and he’s doing it to garner support from Aggies all over.  It is good though that Jimbo does seem to get Aggieland.  It’s a special place and he truly seems to understand that now more than ever.  Understanding Aggieland will only help him win games.  Plus, if he does win it all he’ll sell the school as much as the football program.  He’s going to take that next step we’ve yet to realize since joining the SEC.

I’ve never spoken with Jimbo personally but I don’t think he’d be any different than what you see on stage and in interviews.  He’s real and he’s raw.  He speaks from the brain more than the heart.  He’s not covering up any deficiencies.  Having helped put on Coach’s Nights in Houston and Fort Worth I’ve been able to be around every head coach since Jackie Sherrill.  Jimbo seems different than all of them.

Jackie is by far the most personable of all of them.  He knows football but Jackie is a natural salesman.  There’s no doubt why Jackie recruited like he did.  Make the paying the players joke if you want but it was the nature of the beast at the time.  Jackie could recruit for a reason beyond what was going on at the time.  He’s extremely personable.

R.C. Slocum is a fine person but he was stubborn as a coach.  He didn’t want to adapt to how football was changing and what other schools were doing.  Both on the field and in recruiting.  He thought showing up as R.C. Slocum wearing Aggie gear would be enough.  He won a lot but it wasn’t enough.  R.C. was a great coach when he took over from Jackie but he couldn’t sustain it.  Mack Brown, Bob Stoops, and Nick Saban exposed his deficiencies as a coach in my mind.  He’s a fine person but he was put in an outstanding situation and didn’t adapt to keep it going long term.

Dennis Franchione was an arrogant punk.  He felt he was better and smarter than everyone else.  He didn’t like being bothered by regular people.  He was a fraud as a coach as he rode some good luck with Gary Patterson and Ladinian Tomlinson at TCU.  He then inherited a loaded Alabama team before he headed to Texas A&M.  He had his work cut out for him at A&M but he was in over his head.  He masked it with arrogance until he couldn’t win enough.

Mike Sherman is as fine of a person as you’ll meet but he has no charisma and the big picture is not his strength.  He’s a very intelligent man at certain things.  Mainly offensive play calling.  He makes for an outstanding Executive Vice President but he’s not cut out to be a Chief Executive Officer.  His hiring as Head Coach at Texas A&M is still the most confusing thing I’ve ever seen.  I never got it then and I still to this day don’t get it.

Kevin Sumlin just wants to be a celebrity.  He doesn’t want to work because he’s not all that smart.  He caught lightening in a bottle with that 2012 team (and Case Keenum at UH) but the reality he’s not interested in being a great football coach.  He wants to give rah rah speeches and never look at film or work drills with a player.  He’s a great public speaker and a funny guy but he’s horrible as a head coach.  He’s made for a television headset and not a coach’s headset.

Jimbo seems different than all of them.  He has the raw mental horsepower to understand complexities and not be overwhelmed.  He has the curiosity to learn from others and change for the better.  He’s funny and charming enough that he can sell recruits.  He has the work ethic to set the example if you’re not willing to work for it you’ll never achieve it.  He seems humble enough that when assembling a staff he wants people to challenge him and not just compliment him.  He’s the leader but he wants independent thinkers offering feedback.  While he clearly knows a lot and likely knows more than any one person in the room he knows he doesn’t know it all.  Others can still offer him knowledge.

Jimbo referenced Scott Woodward several times last night.  It’s clear Jimbo wasn’t completely sure what he was getting into at Texas A&M and it wasn’t just about money.  He came to Texas A&M because of one person.  Jimbo believed that person when he was told he’d have more resources to win a National Championship than at Florida State.  That person is Scott Woodward.  Let’s never forget what Woodward means for the Jimbo hire.  He’s the man that made it happen.

I loved the Jimbo Fisher hire from the first day.  I didn’t have any reservations about him like I did with Fran, Sherman, and Sumlin.  From what I’ve seen from Jimbo since that day nothing has changed.  Seeing him speak in person I haven’t had faith in the Aggie Football program like this since the early 90s.

Maybe Jimbo never wins that National Championship.  Something tells me he will.  He’s done it once at Florida State and I think the timing is right for him to do it at Texas A&M.  I don’t think Tom Herman will be super successful at Texas so our main in state competitor for talent is susceptible.  I think in the next 2-3 years Nick Saban will step down as Bama coach.  I think LSU will wander aimlessly for a spell like before Saban got there.  I think Georgia and Florida are poised to rise in the East which hill hurt Auburn for recruiting.  You have to win the SEC West before worrying about a National Championship and it could get easier for A&M to do so.

I think everything is lining up for Jimbo to have one hellacious decade at Texas A&M.  It won’t happen this year as our offensive line is too weak.  I think by the third year Jimbo is going to have Texas A&M poised for a run at the National Championship.  I really do.  I don’t feel like I’m drinking the maroon Kool-Aid.  I really feel I’m looking at it objectively.  A part of success takes timing.  I think the timing is finally lining up for Texas A&M.  It’s about damn time.

If you’re an Aggie get ready to enjoy this next decade of Aggie Football.  It’s going to be like that period from 1985 to 1995 where there’s a realistic expectation win every game.  I’ve been behind the phrase Make Aggie Football Great Again for over a year now.  It’s about to happen.  When it’s all said and done Jimbo Fisher will have changed it to Made Aggie Football Great Again.

Get ready to #MAFGA

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2018 Won’t Be 2012

2012 Bama Line

Some Aggies are hoping Jimbo’s first year will be like Kevin Sumlin’s first year where we catch everyone by surprise.  The main reason Jimbo won’t replicate Sumlin’s first season in the record department is because of our offense.  Our offense simply won’t supply the firepower our 2012 offense did for a “breakthrough” first year for Jimbo.  Let’s breakdown the challenges facing the Aggie offense in 2018 compared to 2012:

Quarterback – Saying there’s no Johnny Manziel on this roster is an understatement.  There’s not a quarterback on this roster that’s even close to what Johnny brought to the table in 2012.  Johnny’s ability to run along with his pocket awareness made so much happen.  He’s a once in a lifetime player.  Starkel and Mond aren’t horrible QBs but they’re not outstanding QBs either.  They both have skill sets that are one dimensional for the most part.  Starkel is a pure pocket guy but doesn’t possess a cannon for an arm.  He’s what one would call a game manager.  That’s not a bad thing but Nick Starkel is not going to put a team on his shoulders and win a game we shouldn’t.  His job is to simply move the team up and down the field as much as possible without turning the ball over.  We won’t be lighting up any defense under Starkel.

Mond could still develop into a dual threat quarterback but nothing I saw in his first season leads me to believe that.  I know he was a true freshman but he’s not as quick as I hoped he’d be.  He certainly didn’t appear to have the burst of Manziel or Kyler Murray.  I think Trevor Knight was a better runner than Mond is.  I was shocked when Mond got walked down in the Arkansas game last year.  He had a wide-open sideline and a defender caught him from behind.  Guys with true elite speed don’t have that happen to them.  Think of all the times Trevor Knight ran away from people in the open field.  I haven’t seen that from Mond.  In addition, Mond is erratic as a passer.  I think he’ll improve under Jimbo but I’m not sure it’ll be enough for this team to take a major step forward from last season.

Step 1 one of eliminating hopes for a 2012 repeat in 2018 is the quarterback position.

Wide Receiver:

People forget how amazing the 2012 receiving corps was.  Everyone points to Mike Evans but there was quite a bit more in 2012 than most people realize.  That team also had Ryan Swope, Uzoma Nwachukwu, and Malcome Kennedy.  It’s sad to think about what happened with him but Thomas Johnson had a couple decent games including Alabama.  That was a REALLY good receiving corps.

For 2018 there’s no telling what we have.  Outside of Christian Kirk last season nobody really produced game in and game out.  Jhamon Ausbon appears to be the best receiver we have and we’re not sure how good he is.  He’s certainly no Mike Evans or even Josh Reynolds/Ryan Swope level at this point.  Other than Ausbon I’m not sure what else to expect from anyone.  Certainly Jalen Preston has a lot of promise but he’ll still be a true freshman in the SEC.  I think he could be a complete stud by the time he leaves A&M but in 2018 he won’t be a dominate receiver.  2012 had a complete stud in Mike Evans, a great receiver in Ryan Swope, and then two really solid guys in Nwachukwu and Kennedy.  I’m not sure the 2018 will have one great receiver unless Ausbon takes a major step forward.  He has the talent but it remains to be seen if he actually does it.  There is some other receiving talent on the roster but it must take some major strides and I’m not sure if it’s quite there yet.

Offensive Line:

This is where the 2012 and 2018 teams will have the biggest difference.  Even bigger than quarterback.  Everyone talks about Manziel, Evans, and even Swope from 2012 but most people forget about that offensive line.  That offensive line was one of the greatest college offensive lines ever assembled.  Every starter on that offensive line started in the NFL at one point.  Four guys were taken in the first round but all five guys not only made an NFL roster but actually started an NFL game at one point in their career.  I don’t know how many collegiate lines can lay claim to that.  It can’t be many.  The 2012 offensive line was one for the ages.  Maybe more than Johnny Manziel if you want to truly dissect it.  It’ll be easier to get a game changing quarterback than it will be to get five guys that will start together in college and then each start in the NFL.  It doesn’t happen often.

As for the 2018 Aggie offensive line nobody knows what to make of it.  The only guaranteed starter is Erik McCoy and right now it’s not certain where he starts.  He’ll either be center or guard simply because the staff must figure out the four best guys to go with him and what positions they play.  It’s great McCoy is that good and has the versatility but it’s not good the staff is waiting to see where he’ll plug best along the line because the other four guys are such unknowns.

It looked like someone was taking Koda Martin’s job even if he came back fully healthy.  I think that’s partially why he transfered.  We’ll be starting someone at left tackle with little experience and have no depth at the position.  That’s not a good thing for a very important position on the offensive line.  We just don’t have any talent or depth on the offensive line outside of Erik McCoy.  I think McCoy might be the only guy that would be in the two deep at Bama or start for schools like Auburn and LSU.  Everybody else would just be fighting for a roster spots on the better teams in the conference.  We have some solid true freshman coming in but I always tell people the SEC is not a league that favors true freshman.  Especially at offensive line.

I know everybody loves Jim Turner and I do as well but I’ve taken a step back from him over the last two seasons.  I think he has a LOT to prove over the next two seasons.  Some people like to blame Sumlin and Mazzone for the shortcomings of the line but he’s still the OLine coach.  He holds a lot of responsibility for the overall results.  He signs off on the recruits and coaches them individual technique, fight, and teamwork.  We’ve missed a lot of assignments or calls over the last two seasons.  We’ve also had lineman get their ass whipped at the line of scrimmage.  I’m talking not even getting any engagement on certain plays.

Our recruiting under Turner his first two seasons has been less than stellar and our play has matched that as well.  I’m not saying he’s on the hot seat by any stretch but if you measure his results based solely on the roster and performance on the field it certainly doesn’t match up with the perception he’s one of the best offensive line coaches in the country.  Sometimes perception and reality don’t match when you judge things objectively.  If you were to objectively grade Turner’s second stint in Aggieland the performance and talent of his unit certainly doesn’t match up with the perception for what kind of offensive line coach he supposedly is.  Turner has a lot to prove this season in my eyes.

Offensive line recruiting has been amazing of recent so something has apparently changed.  Maybe it’s the Jimbo effect or maybe it’s true Sumlin was an albatross around Turner’s neck in recruiting.  I’m glad for the recruits that have committed for future classes but the success of the 2018 team centers around the performance of the offensive line more than any unit.  Right now, it doesn’t look good for our offensive line in 2018.  No doubt having a tight end will provide a huge help but the reality is the talent level is not where it should be for a program like Texas A&M.  Turner and Jimbo are working on that but it’s not going to be enough for 2018.

 

Maybe the Aggie offense surprises me in 2018 but I think Jimbo has a couple of years of work ahead of him to get the offense to championship caliber level.  If Aggies are expecting Jimbo to have the same success record wise as Sumlin in his first year it’s likely not happening.  There’s a MAJOR talent difference between the 2012 Aggie offense and the 2018 Aggie offense that coaching and scheme won’t be able to overcome.

I do believe Jimbo needs to go 8-4 this season but he won’t go 10-2 during the regular season like Sumlin’s first year.  Bama and Clemson are certain loses and there will be at least one more if not two more loses on the schedule.  It’s possible we go worse than 8-4 but 8-4 should be Jimbo’s baseline for his first season.  He needs to do some building to win the SEC and that means winning 8 games in the regular season.

The dream scenario is likely going 9-3 with a win over LSU and then win our bowl game ending the season at 10-3.  If that happens it won’t appear to be as good as Sumlin going 11-2 with wins over Alabama and Oklahoma.  However, 10-3 with wins over LSU and a bowl win in 2018 will be MUCH better than Sumlin’s 2012 season.

What Jimbo Fisher Means for Texas A&M

Jimbo Landing in Aggieland

A Change in Perception:

When Texas A&M made the hire of Jimbo Fisher official it sent a clear message.  Underestimate Texas A&M all you want but Texas A&M doesn’t hold the same belief.  Many national and regional “experts” believe Texas A&M is a second tier program in college football.  They don’t think A&M can compete with the “bluebloods” of college football.  They haven’t been to College Station in 10 years and they still hold their stock in IBM having never invested in Apple, Amazon, or Microsoft.  You know, because nothing ever changes.

7 years ago these “experts” that make a living talking college football said Texas A&M wouldn’t get an invite to the SEC.  Well, Texas A&M got the invite to the SEC and made the move in 2012.  They said it was a stupid move.  The first season in the SEC Texas A&M won 11 games and finished in the Top 5 while Johnny Manziel won a Heisman.  That was only six seasons ago where Texas A&M competed at the highest level.  Sure, it turned out to be a blip but the reality is Texas A&M competed at the highest level and built the most expensive stadium in college football over the last six seasons.  Texas A&M can compete at the highest level.

When chatter of Jimbo Fisher getting hired by A&M recently surfaced these “experts” said there was no way Jimbo Fisher would leave FSU.  They said it was a second tier program under Florida State.  They’re talking about the school that finished in the Top 5 only six seasons previously and had the most expensive college football stadium ever built.  No stadium even comes close to the amenities of modern day Kyle Field.  These “experts” couldn’t think past the last 12 months.  They were convinced Texas A&M despite the 2012 season, it’s location, it’s facilities, and it’s resources couldn’t attract a coach of Jimbo Fisher’s caliber because it was a second tier program.  On December 1, 2017, Jimbo Fisher made it official he was leaving Florida State for Texas A&M.

Sadly for these “experts” if they have any historical context their historical context is that of Dennis Franchione, Mike Sherman, and recently Kevin Sumlin.  They forget Texas is a hotbed of football recruits and economic development.  And I mean a hotbed of football recruits and money.  They forget the years from 1985 to 1995 when Texas A&M finished in the final Top 20 for 10 of those 11 seasons.  The overall record over those 11 seasons was 104-27-2.  That’s a winning percentage of 78 percent.  The record at Kyle Field was 63-5-1.  That’s a winning percentage of 91 percent.  That’s a flat out decade of dominance at home.  1985 was 32 years ago which seems like a long time but it’s not forever ago.  For whatever reason these “experts” assumed Texas A&M was just a second tier football program that didn’t belong in the discussions of the upper tier programs.

They believe despite the brand new $450 million stadium and facilities that rival anybody in the country along with a hotbed of recruiting Texas A&M can never compete at the highest level of college football.  These people get paid to be “experts” about college football.  The truth is these people are idiots and lazy.  They sit in their studios watching the games never visiting any campus.  Their sole basis for being an “expert” is the most recent decade of success.  They’re judging Texas A&M based solely on the jobs done by Mike Sherman and Kevin Sumlin.  Mike Sherman and Kevin Sumlin are outstanding people but they didn’t prove to be great college football coaches.  College football more than any other sport is about the head coach.  In college football the head coach has the highest input of 85 scholarship players including their recruiting, the walk-ons, and the largest staff of any college sport.  The sport requires 22 different starters with 11 of those having to work in perfect unison on every play.  No other sport comes close to the overall volume and detail the head coach must think about.  Because of that the head coach has to be something special.  The greats are few and far between.  A&M has simply failed on having a great head coach since R.C. Slocum around 1995 with a couple blips in 1998 and 2012.  We’ve been in a coach drought.  Simple as that.  It hasn’t been a resource problem.

The hire of Jimbo Fisher changes that perception.  At least it should.  The hire of Jimbo Fisher makes these “experts” wake up and pay attention.  They can deny it but they’re paying attention.  The hire of Jimbo Fisher changes the national perception of Texas A&M’s willingness and ability to compete at the highest level in college football.  The hire of Jimbo Fisher says A&M is capable of things people have forgotten about.  The hire of Jimbo Fisher tells the “experts” you can think what you want about Texas A&M but Texas A&M thinks differently about itself.

A lot of these “experts” will continue questioning if A&M is a better job than FSU when a man just staked his career to it.  Sure, Jimbo Fisher left for more money but he was already a Top 5 paid coach in college football.  The dude is as driven by anyone to win college football games.  It’s not like he’s coming to College Station for more money and ride out his career for a decade.  That makes no sense at all if you think about it logically.  A man who seemingly had it all at FSU left for another program.  Why would that be?  The only real logical explanation is the person himself who has more vested than anyone feels that Texas A&M offers a better chance to win a national championship than Florida State.  It really is as simple as that.  Sadly the “experts” will go on and on this is about money and Jimbo Fisher is an idiot.  I don’t think it’s about money as Jimbo already has plenty and FSU wasn’t firing him anytime soon.  Jimbo Fisher may be wrong in the end but the reason he made the move is he feels Texas A&M offers a better chance to win a national championship.  It’s the only reason an established coach at a proven Power 5 program would leave for another one.  It doesn’t happen very often.  I don’t think Jimbo left because of the FSU fans being critical over this season.  That seems awful petty.  Jimbo seems to have more confidence and pride to let a few fans piss him off and leave.  Jimbo left because he thinks Texas A&M offers more resources to win a national championship than Florida State.

Some of the “experts” will also say Dennis Franchione left Alabama for Texas A&M and look how that turned out.  They won’t look under the hood and realize Dennis Franchione was a fraud because he was built up by Gary Patterson much the same way Dan Hawkins was at Boise St.  Dennis Franchione jumped because of the pending scholarship restrictions coming Alabama’s way.  He too at the time believed Texas A&M offered a better chance to win a national championship than his current situation like any coach that decides to move.  Alabama was pretty bad after Fran left until Saban showed up.  The problem with Fran was he wasn’t actually a good football coach.  This is why he struggled at Texas State when he did get another job.  Winners win at any level they coach if given enough time.  Comparing Jimbo Fisher and Dennis Franchione is an exercise in being lazy.  Much different circumstances.  Still, those with the inability to have logical thoughts will use that as an argument because they sit in a studio having never been to the campus and regions around Texas A&M and Florida State football.  Just because the wins and losses over the last two decades are different doesn’t mean the resources and potential are different.

Ironically enough I’ve been saying for two decades if Florida State, Miami, and Florida can all be seen as equals on the football field why can’t Texas and Texas A&M?  Texas has access to great football talent just like Florida does.  How is Florida allowed/able to have three marquee programs in their state but Texas which is a bigger state than Florida can only have one?  Spare me the argument there’s more bigger schools in Texas because Florida has a boat load of schools as well.  Also spare me the argument Oklahoma steals recruits out of Texas.  There are PLENTY of great Texas high school football players to build a championship team at A&M.  The problem has been and always will be coaching.  Texas A&M since R.C. Slocum started declining in the late 90s has failed to hire a competent coach.  Dennis Franchione, Mike Sherman, and Kevin Sumlin were simply not great football coaches.  Texas A&M for two decades had the wrong person under the headset.

For most, the perception of Texas A&M football will change but some people will keep their head in the sand even though a man staked his career to the move.  He burned his legacy on the way out of Tallahassee so he obviously sees something beyond the money.  At least I think he does.  Most will understand and watch with curiosity if he’s right while the truly moronic people will continue to question why he’d make the move.  Those people need to shut up and save the world’s oxygen for something else.

The ultimate perception shift will only occur if Jimbo actually wins and competes with the team in Tuscaloosa.  If he mimics Sumlin’s regular 8-4 record and third to fourth place in the SEC West the “experts” will be proven right.  If at minimum Jimbo replaces LSU as the second best program in the SEC West while Saban is at Alabama then he’ll prove it was the right move.  If Jimbo actually wins a national championship at Texas A&M I’ll start a Go Fund Me page to send every person that questioned why Jimbo would leave FSU for A&M an actual plate of crow.  I’m dead serious.  Keep those Tweets.  I’ve got two from Mike Greenberg and Richard Justice even though Richard Justice deleted his.

Will Jimbo prove the critics right or wrong?  Nobody has any idea.  That includes Jimbo and the people that made the decision to bring him in.  Only time will tell but Texas A&M on December 1, 2017 put their proverbial nuts on the table.  Those in charge of hiring a football coach for Texas A&M believe completely different than the “experts” that say Jimbo Fisher is an idiot.  Jimbo Fisher has to win to fully change the perception.  If that happens those “experts” that questioned the move will be proven the idiots.  I can’t wait.

The Mechanics of the Hire and the Contract:

Kudos to Scott Woodward on this hire.  Much like when Dr. Loftin took us to the SEC he spoke very minimally and executed like an assassin.  With assassins you never know what’s going on but the results are crystal clear.  The hire of Jimbo Fisher is crystal clear.  Scott Woodward is an assassin and that’s a good thing.  While everyone else was out creating wasted noise Woodward was doing his work and when it mattered most pulled the trigger with clear results.  No fanfare and no hype.  Just the clear result for the main target all along.  You love an assassin when they’re on your side.

In the end it sort of seems like a simple hire because there was no fanfare.  It wasn’t.  LSU tried to do it the previous two seasons and failed.  There’s speculation of how long Woodward has been working on this but it doesn’t matter.  He got the best coach that would come to Texas A&M.  Texas A&M was not getting Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Dabo Swinney, or Jim Harbaugh.  I suppose there’s a possibility of getting Chris Petersen but I like the Jimbo Fisher hire more than Chris Petersen which I’ll get to in a little bit.  I don’t know the full mechanics of this hire but Woodward executed them perfectly.  He zeroed in on Fisher as the biggest attainable fish and reeled him in with flawless execution.

Despite what the “experts” say this wasn’t simply a money whip either.  Like I referenced above Jimbo didn’t leave just for money.  His situation at Florida State wasn’t bad at all.  It took Woodward convincing Jimbo he would be better served at Texas A&M.  That’s one hell of a sales job and Woodward should get more credit by the “experts” for pulling this off.  LSU has been perceived as the better program but yet Texas A&M is the one that could pull off the hire in one try.  Give credit where credit is due and that appears to be the work of Scott Woodward and those at Texas A&M that supported Woodward.  Thank goodness we’re not Tennessee.  Plus, we’re about to find out what’s going on at FSU as it seems Willie Taggart has turned them down.  Scott Frost is also going to Nebraska so he’s not a candidate.  This hire couldn’t have been cleaner.  Great job by Woodward.

As for the magnitude of the reported $75 million contract over 10 years let’s break it down a bit.  Had Sumlin stayed at A&M for 10 years we would have paid him $50 million.  That’s assuming he never got a raise.  That’s $2.5 million a year difference.  If Sumlin had more repeated success there’s no doubt we would have paid Sumlin more than $5 million a year through a raise.  On a per year basis it’s really not that much difference because in big time college football $2.5 million isn’t much.  We’ll make it up in Double Dave’s pizza rolls sales each season.  That is if Double Dave’s can get their act together and have enough on hand where there’s no line and they never run out.  Double Dave’s with better execution can make up the difference if they’ll execute like Woodward.  There’s always a line for pizza rolls and they always run out.  Talk about missed opportunity.  Although I’m more of a Gumby’s pizza roll guy because they add garlic or something giving it more flavor.  Never understood why Double Dave’s got all the pizza roll love when Gumby’s pizza rolls are better.  All marketing and not product in my mind but that’s a blog post for another day.

As for the length of the contract these “experts” and “critics” are some of the same people that said we didn’t give Kevin Sumlin enough time with 6 years.  We’re committing to Fisher for a decade so that’s only 4 years more than what Sumlin got.  That should be a positive.  Fisher is only 52 which at the end of his contract he’ll be younger than Nick Saban is now.  Arizona State just hired a 62 year old to run their football program.  It’s not unexpected that Fisher can coach 10 more years.  Maybe he doesn’t win a national championship but his track record says A&M will be better off than the previous three coaches we hired.  Winners win and history indicates Jimbo Fisher is a winner.

Winners don’t come cheap so committing $75 million over 10 years for a coach with Jimbo’s track record seems reasonable to me.  It’s steep but it’s a cost of doing business.  Attempting to win a national championship requires money or luck.  We’ve run out of luck at Texas A&M so time to throw money at winning it all.  Mike Gundy was offered 6 years at $7 million by Tennessee and Gus Malzahn has apparently received a raise to $7 million by Auburn.  Jimbo at $7.5 million doesn’t seem out of line at all compared to the numbers that have come out this past week.

If in 10 years Jimbo Fisher has not won more than the coaches that came before him then Texas A&M needs to do a serious internal analysis.  Stop wasting money on football and turn Kyle Field into a bullfighting arena or something.  If Jimbo is worse than or even equal to Kevin Sumlin then we need to stop wasting money on football all together at Texas A&M.  This is an experiment at the highest level to see where Aggie Football can go.  It’s time to step up to find the ceiling.  Finding that ceiling costs money.

I’ve seen Mike Leach’s name get thrown out there for saving money and getting similar results.  Nobody loves Mike Leach more than me since he’s no longer at Tech clowning Franchione and Sherman.  I don’t really get it though.  Mike Leach is a fine coach but he’s never won a division.  Sure, he tied for it once at Tech but after beating Texas to have the inside track to win the division his team got clowned by OU.  He had the division in front of him and he couldn’t get it done.  Then he lost the Cotton Bowl to Ole Miss that season.  That’s the closest he’s ever come to winning a division and a major bowl.  Mike Leach will do more with less but he has a ceiling in my mind.  Mike Leach has won 10 games in ONE season of 16 seasons as head coach.  I know Texas Tech and Washington State aren’t perennial winners but you would think he’d have at least one more season where he won at least 10 games.  He’s only had one.

I don’t think rolling the dice and saving money would have been a good move with Leach.  I don’t see the “great” switch going off for Mike Leach at Texas A&M or any major program.  He’ll be a thorn to opponents but he’ll never win it all.  It’s not worth saving money to not have a chance to win it all.  That goes for any other similar unproven coach.  It wouldn’t have been worth it to save some money and “hope” that coach becomes great at Texas A&M.  We tried it with Franchione and Sumlin and it didn’t work.  Like I said earlier we’re out of time for “hope” so it’s time to spend money.

$75 million for ten years seems like a risky investment but let’s take a look at Jimbo the coach and see how risky it is.  Everybody said the Red Sox and Cubs couldn’t win it all until they finally hired someone competent enough to lead the team.  It’s always about leadership and that costs money.

Jimbo the Head Coach:

I believe a coach’s record matters more than anything else.  You can play ifs and buts all you want but over a period of time a coach’s record no matter where they coach will reflect their ability.  If he’s at a horrible program he’ll improve the record he took over if he’s a good coach.  Let’s look at Jimbo’s record and the four seasons at Florida State before he took over from Bowden.

The first four years are Bobby Bowden and the final eight years that are bolded are Jimbo Fisher.

Year Record Conference Bowl (W/L) Final Rank Title
Bowden – 2006 7-6 3-5 Emerald – W NR
2007 7-6 4-4 Music City – L NR
2008 9-4 5-3 Champs Sports – W 23 Division
2009 7-6 4-4 Gator – W NR
Jimbo- 2010 10-4 6-3 ChickFilA – W 16 Division
2011 9-4 5-3 Champs Sports – W 23
2012 12-2 7-1 Orange – W 8 Conference
2013 14-0 8-0 BCS NCG – W 1 National Champ
2014 13-1 8-0 Rose – L 6 Conference
2015 10-3 6-2 Peach – L 14
2016 10-3 5-3 Orange -W 8
2017 5-5 3-5

 

As you can see, the four seasons before Jimbo took over Florida State was not exactly a dominant program.  Florida State only finished once in the Top 25 those four seasons.  Their best record was 9-4 with an ACC division championship.  Other than that Florida State had a 7-6 record each season prior to Jimbo Fisher taking over.

The first season Jimbo took over he lead Florida State to a 9-3 regular season record winning the Atlantic Division.  They lost to Va. Tech in the ACC Title game but beat South Carolina in the ChickFilA Bowl.  That’s a pretty quick turnaround from the previous season at Florida State where they went 7-6.

Overall, including bowl games, Jimbo Fisher won 10 games or more in 6 of 8 seasons.  He was 6-2 in bowl games including 2 Orange Bowl wins and a national championship in the Rose Bowl.  That’s three marquee bowl game wins which is damn impressive in 8 seasons.  He went to 5 marquee bowl games from 2012 to 2016.

He lost the Rose Bowl in 2014 in the first year of the College Football Playoff to Oregon and Marcus Mariota.  In 2015 FSU lost to UH in the ChickFilA Peach Bowl.  I believe FSU was on their third string quarterback that game.  That can be considered a bad loss but that UH team was hitting on all cylinders and Tom Herman at UH was 5-0 against Top 25 teams at UH.  I’m not going to completely ding Jimbo for that loss even though it looks pretty bad.  In 2016 Jimbo beat Jim Harbaugh’s vaunted Michigan team in the Orange Bowl.  He’s played in big bowl games and done pretty well.

A lot of people like to point out Jimbo’s greatest success came with Jameis Winston under center.  That can be considered true but the fact of the matter is Florida State went 27-1 those two seasons.  Say what you want to about Jameis but Jimbo harnessed his talent to only lose 1 game in 2 seasons. That’s remarkable.  Jameis was a great college quarterback but Jimbo deserves credit for going 27-1 in those two seasons.  How many coaches have gone 27-1 over two seasons?  Not many at all.  It still takes coaching to win like that even if you have talent.  Ask Mack Brown, Les Miles, and Ron Zook.

Outside of Jameis, Jimbo has lead Florida State to a 56-21 record which is a 73 percent winning rate.  That includes the 5-5 record this season which has brought it down some.  Even without Jameis Winston and a .500 season he’s basically winning every 3 of 4 games.  Add in the Jameis Winston years and Jimbo has an overall record of 83-22 which is an almost 80 percent winning rate.  That’s winning every 4 of 5 games over 8 years as the head man at Florida State.  That’s damn good no matter how you want to spin his time there.  I firmly believe winners win and there’s no denying Jimbo Fisher won a lot of football games at FSU.

Based on the last 12 years of Florida State football there’s no reason to think Jimbo Fisher won’t improve the number of wins the Aggies have going forward.  His 8 seasons of football at Florida State speak for themselves compared to the previous 4 seasons.  He wins football games plain and simple.  There’s plenty of talent on the A&M football roster to win more games in 2018 than in 2017.  His biggest issue is going to be improving the A&M offensive line along with deciding pretty early if he wants to have a dual threat attack with Kellen Mond or a straight passing attack with Nick Starkel.  He may also bring in another quarterback but my guess is he’ll roll with either Mond or Starkel.

The schedule is pretty tough playing Clemson and Alabama in 2 of the first 4 games so we’ll find out pretty quickly if Jimbo can make improvements to Aggie football.  I don’t expect A&M to win those games but I do expect them to be competitive in those games.  The rest of the schedule should be pretty manageable with Auburn and LSU posing the toughest tests for the remaining 8 games.  I don’t think it’s out of the question for A&M to go 8-4 next season at minimum but if Jimbo is worth his $7.5 million a year we should win at least 9 games and potentially 10.  I do expect to see immediate improvement when it comes to wins and losses next season.  We didn’t hire Jimbo to “build” a program.  We hired him to come in and start winning more games right away.  He’s got a 10 year contract but he’s being paid to win more in Year 1.  No excuses.  There’s no “building” with his pedigree and what he’s being paid.

In addition to his coaching record Jimbo is known as an elite recruiter.  He had a head start on Kevin Sumlin’s time in Aggieland having already been at Florida State for 2 seasons but Florida State out-recruited Texas A&M in each of Sumlin’s six seasons.  Sumlin was seen as a strong recruiter but Jimbo proved better.  In 8 seasons of signing recruits Florida State was ranked in the Top 10 every season except for one where they came in at number 11 so almost in the Top 10.  In those 8 seasons Florida State was ranked in the Top 5 for 5 of those signing classes.  That’s an elite level of recruiting for sure.  There’s no reason to think Jimbo Fisher can’t do the same at Texas A&M.  He’ll be leading the only SEC team in the state of Texas and the other flagship school struggling right now so he shouldn’t have issues recruiting.  He’s an offensive coach but Jimbo recruited elite talent on both sides of the ball at Florida State.

Jimbo and his staff appear to do a pretty good job developing that talent.  Florida State has had 35 players drafted in the last 5 years.  That’s averaging 7 players each year of the last 5 NFL drafts.  There’s been 35 rounds in the last 5 NFL drafts so Florida State basically had a player for every round.  It didn’t break down that way but you get the point.  It certainly appears that Jimbo can not only recruit elite level talent but he and his staff can also develop it.  There are lots of coaches that can recruit but can’t develop talent and Jimbo seems to develop talent.

The data basically speak for itself in Jimbo’s time at Florida State.  If you look at record, recruiting, and drafting Jimbo Fisher is a Top 5 coach in the country.  That’s pretty hard to argue.  There’s no guarantee those things will carry over at Texas A&M but at least he’s proven he can do it.  I don’t think he would have taken the job if he didn’t feel he can replicate his success.  Maybe he just cashed a huge lottery check but I really think he believes he can do at Texas A&M what he did at Florida State.  He wouldn’t have made the move if he didn’t because his situation at Florida State was really damn good.  I mean the “experts” say that Florida State is the better job.  Jimbo Fisher made a calculated decision he can do at Texas A&M what he did at Florida State.  I’ll trust the man with the skins on the wall over the “experts” that sit in a studio or behind a keyboard.  One man has done it.  The others haven’t.

Make no mistake Jimbo Fisher was hired to Make Aggie Football Great Again.  Only time will tell if he actually can.  Based on his time at Florida State there’s no reason think in 5 years he won’t change the phrase Make Aggie Football Great Again to Made Aggie Football Great Again.  For $7.5 million a year he better change the “k” in Make to a “d” for Made.  When that happens it will prove every single dollar we signed Jimbo for was worth it and the “experts” are idiots.  We’ll be shipping plates of crow all over the country.

#MAFGA

Gig ‘Em Aggies!

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