Month: August 2023

2023 Aggie Season Prediction

Overall Thoughts:

Before I get into discussing each game I want to hit on a few points of how I feel about this team going into the 2023 season:

– There is enough front-line talent to compete in and potentially win every game. I feel good about all of our starters except the offensive tackles. They could be okay but those positions are my greatest concern going into 2023. I think we should be just fine everywhere else.

If you didn’t see or read my Aggie position group thoughts you can read them here – https://rcwouldhavegonefor2.com/2023/08/03/2023-aggie-position-preview/

– Jimbo has to coach differently. In his first five seasons, he’s been afraid to put the pedal down on offense and stress the opposing defense. In his first three seasons, I thought it was because he wanted to rely on his defense which I understood. However, the last two seasons have proven it’s just his style. It’s a new era in football and he must let his offense mash the gas from time to time.

– In addition to a new style of offense, Jimbo needs to see the whole game. There were at least three times last year where a timeout was called without thinking of the next play. They were all reactionary timeouts to what had just happened. He had no plan beyond the timeout. As the head coach Jimbo needs to be thinking about the next few plays even before the play in front of him has happened. Great coaches anticipate what can happen after a play occurs. I want to see more assertiveness in decision-making instead of waiting until the play clock has wound down. Have a plan for what you think you need to do before it happens. You can always adjust but if you’re good at anticipating you’re that much further ahead than the other team.

– We still play in the SEC West and even though it appears down this season it’s still the toughest division in college football. Throw in road trips to Miami and Tennessee and this is a challenging schedule. There’s no way we’re winning every game this season. There will be hiccups but just a question of how many.

– We’re going to have injuries. It’s just a matter of how many. I hope we have no more than five starters miss five games each. I think that’s reasonable. We have less than that and we’ll be good. More than that and it’s going to have a real effect on the team.

– Only 12 games matter in the grand scheme. All of what you’re about to read is a guess. It’s no different than anyone else that’s guessing right now as well. I’ve been extremely wrong the last two seasons as we’ve done MUCH worse than I anticipated. The win or loss on the field is the only thing that matters. I’m still waiting on Jimbo to get over that hump and into Atlanta the first weekend of December but I’m not sure we’re there yet.

– I’m ready for September 2nd to get here.

New Mexico:

This game is all about one person – Conner Weigman. I’m operating under the assumption Conner will be our starting quarterback. If not, this game will be about Max Johnson.

This is not a scrimmage and it’s not a practice. It’s a full-blown dress rehearsal and the starting quarterback better be ready to annihilate the defense. Maybe not annihilate but our offense should have our way against New Mexico at the hands of Conner or Max.

What I don’t want to see is a repeat of Haynes King against Kent State and Sam Houston State. In 2021 we lead Kent State 10-3 going into the half. Last year against Sam Houston we lead 17-0 at the half.

I want to see a starting quarterback chomping at the bit to hand it to someone who’s not actually on his team. I want to see at least 28 points at halftime. Ideally, I’d like to see 35.

Despite what some fans think there’s no sandbagging or limiting plays in these first games against lesser opponents. There are simply players prepared to execute and players that aren’t. I want to see a quarterback prepared to execute their offense to their full ability along with everyone else. If not, we’re in trouble.

No struggles in the first half “working out the kinks.” Come out and play dominating football from the start.

Beyond the quarterback, I’d love to see us easily establish the running game and limit points on defense. I want to see 35-3 at half and 59-10 when it’s all said and done.

I’m dead serious I want to see a dominating blowout from start to finish. Give me a team that looks confident and prepared at kick-off.

The last thing I want is to go in at half with less than a three-touchdown lead. We need to set the tone for the 2023 season early and often.

Chance of winning – 100%.

Aggies: 1-0

Miami:

Did you know Jimbo is 1-4 in Game 2 during his time in Aggieland? His only Week 2 victory was that stinker in Colorado in 2021. That loss to Appalachian State last year was a much bigger indicator than we realized. 2020 has been the only anomaly when we had to play Bama in Week 2 and then totally turned it around after that game.

Even without knowing that stat I think this game is going to be a MASSIVE barometer for how the season is going to play out. We’re going to know pretty quickly what the 2023 Aggie Football team is going to look like. How we win or lose will be telling for the rest of the season.

We’re going on the road against a tough but beatable Miami team.

I think this game is a coin flip the Aggies win but I really want this to be Conner Weigman’s first true statement game. I want this to be Johnny Manziel in his second game against SMU in 2012. I want this to be Lamar Jackson in his second game against Syracuse in 2016. Bobby Petrino was Lamar Jackson’s coach that year. Both guys went on to win the Heisman after dazzling in their second game.

That’s what I want to happen but know that it’s a long shot.

I think what happens is similar to last year. The Aggie defense limits the Hurricane offense and the Aggie offense does enough to win this game.

I think we win.

Chance of winning – 50%.

Aggies: 2-0

Louisiana Monroe:

Jimbo has yet to lose a Game 3 as the Aggie head coach and I don’t see this game as being any different.

Chance of winning – 100%.

Aggies: 3-0

Auburn:

I’m not sure what to make of Auburn just yet. They were pretty dreadful last season even if all we could do was punt on our first 10 offensive possessions against them.

Hugh Freeze is a damn solid coach but I’m pretty confident Jimbo’s squad is much further along in 2023. I do like getting Auburn early in the season as I think they’ll get tougher as the season wears on.

Since joining the SEC in 2023 this has been a weird series. The road team has usually won this game but that hasn’t been the case the last two seasons and I think that trend holds.

I’m taking the Aggies here.

Chance of winning – 60%.

Aggies: 4-0

Arkansas:

What a series this has been. Other than 2021 when Arkansas had their best season in a decade the Aggies have won this game. It hasn’t been easy but somehow the Aggies have gotten the breaks and gone 11-1 against Arkansas since joining the SEC.

Arkansas returns their starting quarterback and running back from last season but they lost both coordinators.

This won’t be an easy win by any stretch but I’m taking the Aggies here due to the loss of coordinators for the Hogs.

Chance of winning – 60%

Aggies: 5-0

Alabama:

I have no clue what to make of this Alabama team. They also lost both of their coordinators but that’s never been an issue for Nick Saban.

The biggest question for this Alabama team is who’s going to play quarterback. Coming out of spring practice they went and got Tyler Buchner who was looking like Notre Dame’s backup quarterback this season. That’s not a good sign when you’re getting a backup quarterback after spring practice. Buchner is familiar with Tommy Rees who is the new Bama OC so that’s the reason they got him.

Because of the question mark at quarterback and because Bama lost TWO games in 2022 everyone believes the Bama dynasty is done. Bama lost both games on the road against rivals thanks to a game-ending field goal and overtime two-point conversion.

They lost two games by a combined 4 points and have a question at starting quarterback so the dynasty is over in a lot of people’s eyes.

I do think there are more questions of the 2023 Bama team than any team in the recent Saban era but they’re still Bama and coached by Nick Saban. I can’t write them off.

My heart says the Aggies pull this off but I need to see that Miami game first and how Bama looks in their first five games. My head says take Bama at the current moment.

Chance of winning – 35%.

Aggies: 5-1

Tennessee:

In the second half of last season, I thought the Tennessee Volunteers might be poised for a pretty decent drop-off in 2023. I thought Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt were the secret sauce.

Then Tennessee dominated Clemson in the Orange Bowl with no Hendon Hooker or Jalin Hyatt. I get Clemson isn’t the national championship-caliber team they’ve been in the past. However, they’ve still got PLENTY of talent relative to most teams in college football and they couldn’t do anything against Tennessee in that game.

I think Josh Heupel is going to plug in Joe Milton at quarterback and keep rolling. Not saying the Aggies can’t win this game but it sure feels like a certain loss. Especially on the road.

There’s a good chance Tennessee is the best team in the SEC in 2023. What a year to draw them.

Chance of winning – 10%

Aggies: 5-2

Bye Week:

The Bye couldn’t come at a better time for us. It’ll be right after two of the toughest games on the schedule. I like to think we’ll be competitive in every game up until this point. If that’s the case I think we’ll use the Bye to regain our composure and set us up well for the final five games.

These final 5 game predictions are based solely on a belief that an A&M team has shown up every week and competed in the previous 7 games. If the wheels are wobbling or even off then the predictions for the final five games are total trash.

We’re going to find out everything we need to know about the 2023 Aggie season in the first seven games.

South Carolina:

Thanks to a kickoff returned for a touchdown and two early offensive turnovers the Gamecocks finally got to hold that coveted Bonham Trophy the Aggies have held every year since this “fierce” rivalry started in 2014.

Shane Beamer has some real momentum in South Carolina right now and has Spencer Rattler coming back for another season. I don’t think it’ll be enough as the Aggies want that Bonham Trophy back.

The Aggies be coming off another bye week like last season against South Carolina but I don’t think they’ll make the same mistakes they made in Columbia so the Aggies take this one.

Chance of winning – 60%.

Aggies: 6-2

Ole Miss:

Thanks to Jimbo’s blindness and stubbornness, Lane Kiffin has pulled down Jimbo’s pants the last two seasons.

I like to think that trend stops this season as Ole Miss completely collapsed down the stretch last season. I think that trend continues in 2023 and Ole Miss has a pretty tough season from a record standpoint.

Ole Miss has a lot of talent at quarterback but I question the rest of their team. They still have decent talent but not on the level of A&M assuming we’re mostly healthy. If we’re healthy we should win this game.

I secretly hope this is the year that Jimbo and Durkin enact their revenge on Kiffin’s smart-ass comments by blowing the doors off Ole Miss at their home. I want Kiffin embarrassed in front of his home crowd.

My guess is it’ll be another tough-fought game the Aggies barely eke out. Either way, a win over Ole Miss is a win over Ole Miss and I’ll take it.

Chance of winning – 60%.

Aggies: 7-2

Mississippi State:

We get Mississippi State at Kyle which is a huge help. We don’t do well in Starkville.

I feel bad for Mississippi State as they have to replace Mike Leach so this feels like a transition year for them. I think that will be reflected in their record.

It won’t be easy but I think this is a win for the Aggies. Just too many question marks for Mississippi State in 2023.

Chance of winning – 70%

Aggies: 8-2

Abilene Christian:

The final home game of 2023 will be against Abilene Christian. I can’t tell you how excited I will be when the SEC goes to a 9 game schedule and this meaningless game in November is gone.

My only question for this game is what the weather will be like and how many folks show up.

Chance of winning – 100%.

Aggies 9-2

LSU:

I look at LSU like I look at Alabama to a degree. They get the benefit of the doubt due to roster talent and history. That’s a good enough reason because it’s held.

The problem I have with LSU is that I don’t think their roster is as deep as it’s been in seasons past. They still have really good talent at key starting spots but I don’t think they’re as talented and as deep as in past seasons.

I also don’t think Jayden Daniels is a game-changing quarterback against talented teams. He’s extremely talented so I think he’ll beat a lot of equal or less teams but I don’t think he’s an elite quarterback that can elevate his game against top defenses. At least not his passing game.

If LSU doesn’t win in overtime against Alabama they’re an 8-4 team and the clear 4th best team in the SEC in 2022. Because of that, I can’t quite figure out what to think of LSU going into 2023.

I think the Aggies stand a really good chance to win this game with their defense. However, going into Death Valley on a Saturday night has proven to be tough for the Aggies.

There’s just too much football to be played before this game to know the outcome right now.

I think this is a coinflip game the Tigers win simply because it’s in Baton Rouge.

Chances of winning – 50%.

Aggies: 9-3

Summary:

Until I see improvement on the field I can’t help but predict better than 9-3. I’ve been burned by Jimbo for the last two seasons. Plus, the SEC West with road trips to Miami and Tennessee is a tall order for a team coming off 5-7.

I feel like this is a 10-2 to 8-4 team.

The talent is there to win the SEC West but I don’t know if the head coaching is there. I need Jimbo to prove it on the field first.

Just Win, Jimbo

2023 Aggie Position Preview

Offense:

Coordinator:

I’m lukewarm on the Bobby Petrino hire. I think it’s a solid hire. I don’t think it’s the magical elixir that solves all of the Aggies offensive woes from last season.

Having someone with Petrino’s experience and ability to focus on the offense will be an improvement over 2022. I have zero doubt our offense will be better in 2023. I just don’t know how much better since Petrino and the offensive talent will have to mesh together.

Petrino won’t be the sole reason the Aggies all of a sudden break out if they do.

I know it’s popular to tout offensive geniuses by the media but the reality is there are very few. There is not one offensive coordinator in college football that consistently puts out a dominating offense. Lincoln Riley is probably the closest but I think he’s more a product of quarterback talent and playing in conferences with little to no defense. He’s never had to grind an offense in a conference with defense.

Can you name the offensive coordinators for Georgia’s back-to-back titles? Steve Sarkisian was Bama’s OC in 2020. Joe Brady was the hottest name in sports in 2019 but turns out maybe it was the collection of talent and not just his influence.

Do you even know who Tony Elliott and Jeff Scott are? They were the Co-OCs for the 2018 and 2016 Clemson national champions. Brian Daboll was the OC for Bama in 2017. Lane Kiffin did it for Bama in 2015. Some guy named Tom Herman did it for Ohio State in 2014.

Hopefully, you get my drift a new offensive coordinator is just a single component of a championship football team. There is no schematic advantage as some like to pretend. At the end of the day the best offensive coordinators get the most out of their talent by running a system everyone understands.

I do believe Petrino will advance this offense and let the talent do what it can do. I just don’t think Petrino has some key that will unlock this offense to something better than everyone else’s in college football.

Quarterback:

Jimbo has been playing coy this summer saying there’s a quarterback battle coming into summer camp. I hope he’s wrong.

I’m Max Johnson’s #1 fan but this better be Conner Weigman’s team from the jump. He offers the most upside with his mobility and arm.

Weigman still has a MASSIVE leap to make to live up to his billing but I see no reason why he can’t do it. Nobody knew who Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston, Joe Burrow, or even Max Duggan was coming into their breakout year.

Conner isn’t getting a ton of press coming into the 2023 season which I’m okay with. Guys tend to come from nowhere with breakout seasons rather than live up to some artificial hype by the media and fans.

If Conner struggles or gets hurt I feel we’re in good hands with Max as the backup but I’m hopeful Conner breaks out like he has the talent to do.

Wide Receiver:

We have the most starting receiver talent since the 2012 season. Evan Stewart can be one of the leading receivers in college football. Moose Muhammed has a knack for big catches and we know what a healthy Ainias Smith can do. Add Noah Thomas to the mix and there’s enough talent to finally be productive at the receiver position.

We haven’t had a productive receiver since Jimbo took over in 2018. We’ve had some receivers flash in moments and over a few games but we haven’t had someone and especially a full unit truly produce for a full season.

Hopefully, Jimbo’s sixth year is the year we have some receivers produce every game all season long. The starting talent is certainly there.

We have some talented youth but I’d rather not find out if they can produce. Let’s hope the starters stay healthy and live up to their talent.

Tight Ends:

Like the receiving talent, Donovan Green and Jake Matthews should be big contributors to this offense. Green especially looked good at times last year. I think these two guys can stress a defense by giving the defense a lot more to defend from a passing standpoint.

Max Wright is back for his 12th season it feels like. He’s not going to be super productive as a receiver but he’s proven to be a worthy blocker and sneaky pass catcher when defenses aren’t paying attention.

I hope this unit doesn’t cover a good portion of receiving yards like under Jimbo in the past five years. It’s time for our actual receivers to catch a lot more than our tight ends.

I do believe this unit will be a massive asset in the passing game allowing the entire passing game to finally flourish.

Running Back:

I’m a little nervous about the running back position simply because none of these guys have any experience. We have talent and depth with Moss, Daniels, and Owens so I’m hopeful a couple of these guys can turn into a nice tandem.

I do think their success is going to be more of a product of the offensive line than their own doing. If they have holes to run through they’ll be productive.

They’re not going to create yards on their own as Devon Achane did. That’s not a knock but more what Achane brought to the table. He was special.

Oh, if Jimbo had given the ball to Achane on the last play against Alabama we would have beaten them in back-to-back years. Just a little reminder…

Offensive Line:

This unit right here will be the biggest key to the Aggies success in 2023.

If healthy we have one of the best interiors in college football. Kam Dewberry, Bryce Foster, and Layden Robinson can be as good as any interior in college football. I won’t go so far as to say they’re hands down the best in college football but they’re up there. These guys have the talent and experience to be great.

Tackle is where we have the biggest question marks and will be the biggest key. Appalachian State exposed our two tackles last year. They showed if you just bull rushed the outside shoulder of our two tackles you could usually have your way with them.

Deuce Fatheree took a massive step back in 2022 but I’m hoping he can regain his 2021 form and improve on it.

I feel bad for Trey Zuhn last year as he was playing with a dislocated kneecap. How in the world we had a starting left tackle with a dislocated kneecap is beyond me but apparently, that happened.

Reports from spring practice is that true freshman Chase Bisontis is challenging for a starting spot. No offense to Zuhn or Fatheree but I hope it’s true. Let’s get some competition and find the best pair of offensive tackles we can.

I have no problem with a true freshman playing offensive tackle. I don’t think Bisontis will be on the level of Luke Joeckel or Jake Matthews as a true freshman but I’m not against it if he’s willing to compete and earn the spot.

We just need to find two offensive tackles that are assets and not liabilities. I don’t care which two it is and on which side of the line. We do that and this offense is going to take a massive leap.

Defense:

Coordinator:

I’m one of the few Aggies that isn’t completely down on D.J. Durkin. I certainly experienced frustrations with him in 2022 but I saw a lot more good than I saw bad. If Petrino and the offensive line step up then this defense is going to have a much bigger margin of error.

It’s MUCH easier to defend a lead than play defense against an offense just trying to wear you down.

I might be proven wrong but I think Durkin and this defense take a massive step in 2023 for a host of reasons. These mainly include a second year in his system, experienced youth, and a more productive offense.

I’m not saying this will be the best defense in college football but I think this can be a Top 10 defense and good enough to win the SEC West when it’s all said and done.

Defensive Line:

This unit right here is why I think this can be a Top 10 defense. It’s still a little young but the talent and depth are as good as any team in the country.

McKinley Jackson and Walter Nolen will anchor the middle. Both of these guys have first-round NFL talent. They can be unblockable at times destroying an offensive line. Behind them are Isaiah Raikes, Albert Regis, and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy. They’ll all rotate to some degree which is a massive luxury in the SEC.

At defensive end, it’ll likely be Shemar Turner and Fadil Diggs starting but the depth is even more impressive with Shemar Stewart, LT Overton, Enai White, and Malick Sylla providing depth. LT Overton should have been in high school last year. Instead, he was holding his own against SEC opponents. I’m excited about him simply because of how young he is and what he did last season.

You also have true freshman DJ Hicks who’s going to find playing time. It’s uncertain if he’ll be at end or in the middle but he’s going to see snaps.

On most defenses, Hicks would likely be a day-one starter but with this defensive line, he’s going to have time to acclimate. That tells you the amount of depth and talent this unit has.

If I have one concern about this unit is the lack of a true pass rusher. I’m not going to complain too much as I think with the right scheme we’ll be able to apply pressure from different areas.

This unit has been the heart and soul of Jimbo’s teams and this year will be no different. I think it will be the best unit he’s had in six years of Aggieland. That’s quite the statement as there have been some solid defensive lines in the last five years

If the Aggies win the SEC West it will be because of this unit.

Linebackers:

I’m interested to see what Durkin does at linebacker mainly because he’s coaching this unit now. It’s all his.

We’ve been running a 4-2-5 for a while now so we’re only using two linebackers which makes sense because offenses are more spread out.

Coming into the season Chris Russell and Edge Cooper look like the obvious starters. I think Cooper is an obvious starter if he’s healthy simply because of his talent and experience. Russell is long on experience since he’s a senior but I think he’s going to get pushed by Taurean York and Jurriente Davis. York is a 3-star freshman out of Temple but he’s 6’0″/230 so he has size. He was the three-time district defensive MVP. He seems like a defensive football player and football instincts matter at linebacker more than any other position.

Jurriente Davis is a transfer from Jackson St. He goes 6’1″/235 so he also has size. I know Jackson St. isn’t the level of competition as the SEC but he was productive at Jackson St. At worst he provides some nice depth where we need it.

Backing up Cooper will be Martrell Harris who looked good at times last year and true freshman Daymion Sanford. Many think Sanford was the best linebacker in Texas high school last year.

We’re still short on SEC experience with this unit but I feel like there’s some depth and talent to not be a massive hole like we’ve seen in years past.

Secondary:

This unit is a slight question mark simply because the floor is lower than last year but the ceiling is higher.

The return of Demani Richardson is a MASSIVE boost. This doesn’t happen without NIL so thank goodness for that. He’ll be the anchor of this unit just like he’s been for the last couple of years. I don’t know if he’ll ever make it at the next level but he’s been an EXTREMELY productive member of our secondary. His knack for turnovers and scores are key reasons we beat Bama in 2021 along with Arkansas and LSU last year. Hopefully, he can keep on rolling.

Jardin Gilbert looks to fill the free safety spot which I’m okay with as he’s played well in his two years at A&M. Jacoby Mathews will be in the mix as well for both safety spots as he would have likely started if Demani didn’t come back.

Assuming those three guys stay healthy we’re going to be just fine at the safety spots.

Bryce Anderson looks to fill Antonio Johnson’s spot at Nickel which seems like a massive hole but I’m big on Bryce Anderson. The dude is an absolute athlete and played well last season. Jarred Kerr will back him up who played great in limited time last year. Great talent and depth here.

Strange to say but I think we’ll fill the hole of Antonio Johnson just fine.

At corner, it looks like Tyreek Chappell and Tony Grimes will start. Chappell has been a really good corner in his two years at A&M. Others may have more raw talent but Chappell can play football in the SEC. Give me production over talent any day.

Grimes is a transfer from UNC. He was the top-rated corner when he came out of high school and chose UNC over A&M at the time. He did pretty well at UNC but hadn’t quite flashed his true talent potential. Hopefully, he can make that leap in Aggieland as he has NFL talent.

Backing them up will be Sam McCall and Josh DeBerry who are also both transfers. McCall comes from Florida State where he didn’t see a ton of playing time but has plenty of talent. DeBerry is a senior from Boston College who started in the secondary for two years. He’s got plenty of experience. They add some great depth and flexibility to this unit as they both can play safety as well.

We’ve got some talented freshmen in Dalton Brooks and Bravion Rogers but I hope they’re not rushed into action this season.

If this unit stays healthy and lives up to its talent it can be one of the best secondaries in college football.

Couple that with our defensive line and a serviceable linebacker group and that’s why this could be a Top 10 defense in college football.

Special Teams:

Special Teams has never been anything special under Jimbo other than the raw talent of the individuals. We had some swing moments with special teams in 2022 when Mississippi State blocked a field goal attempt and returned it for a touchdown. Then South Carolina opened the game with a kick-off return for a touchdown we never recovered from.

Maybe with his new role as “CEO Coach,” he’ll spend some time making sure special teams are sharp and even having a few wrinkles. I doubt it, but it’s more possible than someone whose main focus was calling offensive plays.

Nik Constantinou returns to punt the ball. He’s been a solid punter for a couple of seasons now.

Randy Bond comes back to kick field goals after taking over when Caden Davis buried his foot before the ball against Appalachian State. Yes, I’m still frustrated by that botched attempt. Bond was solid enough last season.

I’m assuming Ainias will return punts which I’m totally fine with. If not him it’ll be Moose.

No clue who will return kicks. Maybe it’ll be a combination of a running back and receiver since we have a little depth there.

I don’t expect a lot from our special teams. I just don’t want them to potentially cost us games like they did in 2022.

Summary:

Top to bottom at the starting positions I feel good about what we have other than our offensive tackle position. It’s potentially there but it’s the biggest question coming into the season. We solidify those two spots along with staying mostly healthy and we can win any game on the schedule.

We can afford a handful of guys missing a handful of games but not much more.

We won’t win every game but the front-line talent is there to compete in every game. That’s all you can ask for the SEC West.

Winning will come down to coaching which includes planning, preparation, and execution. It’ll also involve no longer blaming the players for lack of execution.

At some point when you’re in charge of players who aren’t executing what you’re telling them, you might want to look in the mirror. I’m hoping there’s at least one mirror in the head coach’s office when things go wrong in 2023.

Hopefully, Jimbo starts looking in the mirror for the whole team’s performance instead of his playsheet for the next offensive play.

Just Win, Jimbo.