Overall Thoughts:
Before I get into discussing each game I want to hit on a few points of how I feel about this team going into the 2023 season:
– There is enough front-line talent to compete in and potentially win every game. I feel good about all of our starters except the offensive tackles. They could be okay but those positions are my greatest concern going into 2023. I think we should be just fine everywhere else.
If you didn’t see or read my Aggie position group thoughts you can read them here – https://rcwouldhavegonefor2.com/2023/08/03/2023-aggie-position-preview/
– Jimbo has to coach differently. In his first five seasons, he’s been afraid to put the pedal down on offense and stress the opposing defense. In his first three seasons, I thought it was because he wanted to rely on his defense which I understood. However, the last two seasons have proven it’s just his style. It’s a new era in football and he must let his offense mash the gas from time to time.
– In addition to a new style of offense, Jimbo needs to see the whole game. There were at least three times last year where a timeout was called without thinking of the next play. They were all reactionary timeouts to what had just happened. He had no plan beyond the timeout. As the head coach Jimbo needs to be thinking about the next few plays even before the play in front of him has happened. Great coaches anticipate what can happen after a play occurs. I want to see more assertiveness in decision-making instead of waiting until the play clock has wound down. Have a plan for what you think you need to do before it happens. You can always adjust but if you’re good at anticipating you’re that much further ahead than the other team.
– We still play in the SEC West and even though it appears down this season it’s still the toughest division in college football. Throw in road trips to Miami and Tennessee and this is a challenging schedule. There’s no way we’re winning every game this season. There will be hiccups but just a question of how many.
– We’re going to have injuries. It’s just a matter of how many. I hope we have no more than five starters miss five games each. I think that’s reasonable. We have less than that and we’ll be good. More than that and it’s going to have a real effect on the team.
– Only 12 games matter in the grand scheme. All of what you’re about to read is a guess. It’s no different than anyone else that’s guessing right now as well. I’ve been extremely wrong the last two seasons as we’ve done MUCH worse than I anticipated. The win or loss on the field is the only thing that matters. I’m still waiting on Jimbo to get over that hump and into Atlanta the first weekend of December but I’m not sure we’re there yet.
– I’m ready for September 2nd to get here.
New Mexico:
This game is all about one person – Conner Weigman. I’m operating under the assumption Conner will be our starting quarterback. If not, this game will be about Max Johnson.
This is not a scrimmage and it’s not a practice. It’s a full-blown dress rehearsal and the starting quarterback better be ready to annihilate the defense. Maybe not annihilate but our offense should have our way against New Mexico at the hands of Conner or Max.
What I don’t want to see is a repeat of Haynes King against Kent State and Sam Houston State. In 2021 we lead Kent State 10-3 going into the half. Last year against Sam Houston we lead 17-0 at the half.
I want to see a starting quarterback chomping at the bit to hand it to someone who’s not actually on his team. I want to see at least 28 points at halftime. Ideally, I’d like to see 35.
Despite what some fans think there’s no sandbagging or limiting plays in these first games against lesser opponents. There are simply players prepared to execute and players that aren’t. I want to see a quarterback prepared to execute their offense to their full ability along with everyone else. If not, we’re in trouble.
No struggles in the first half “working out the kinks.” Come out and play dominating football from the start.
Beyond the quarterback, I’d love to see us easily establish the running game and limit points on defense. I want to see 35-3 at half and 59-10 when it’s all said and done.
I’m dead serious I want to see a dominating blowout from start to finish. Give me a team that looks confident and prepared at kick-off.
The last thing I want is to go in at half with less than a three-touchdown lead. We need to set the tone for the 2023 season early and often.
Chance of winning – 100%.
Aggies: 1-0
Miami:
Did you know Jimbo is 1-4 in Game 2 during his time in Aggieland? His only Week 2 victory was that stinker in Colorado in 2021. That loss to Appalachian State last year was a much bigger indicator than we realized. 2020 has been the only anomaly when we had to play Bama in Week 2 and then totally turned it around after that game.
Even without knowing that stat I think this game is going to be a MASSIVE barometer for how the season is going to play out. We’re going to know pretty quickly what the 2023 Aggie Football team is going to look like. How we win or lose will be telling for the rest of the season.
We’re going on the road against a tough but beatable Miami team.
I think this game is a coin flip the Aggies win but I really want this to be Conner Weigman’s first true statement game. I want this to be Johnny Manziel in his second game against SMU in 2012. I want this to be Lamar Jackson in his second game against Syracuse in 2016. Bobby Petrino was Lamar Jackson’s coach that year. Both guys went on to win the Heisman after dazzling in their second game.
That’s what I want to happen but know that it’s a long shot.
I think what happens is similar to last year. The Aggie defense limits the Hurricane offense and the Aggie offense does enough to win this game.
I think we win.
Chance of winning – 50%.
Aggies: 2-0
Louisiana Monroe:
Jimbo has yet to lose a Game 3 as the Aggie head coach and I don’t see this game as being any different.
Chance of winning – 100%.
Aggies: 3-0
Auburn:
I’m not sure what to make of Auburn just yet. They were pretty dreadful last season even if all we could do was punt on our first 10 offensive possessions against them.
Hugh Freeze is a damn solid coach but I’m pretty confident Jimbo’s squad is much further along in 2023. I do like getting Auburn early in the season as I think they’ll get tougher as the season wears on.
Since joining the SEC in 2023 this has been a weird series. The road team has usually won this game but that hasn’t been the case the last two seasons and I think that trend holds.
I’m taking the Aggies here.
Chance of winning – 60%.
Aggies: 4-0
Arkansas:
What a series this has been. Other than 2021 when Arkansas had their best season in a decade the Aggies have won this game. It hasn’t been easy but somehow the Aggies have gotten the breaks and gone 11-1 against Arkansas since joining the SEC.
Arkansas returns their starting quarterback and running back from last season but they lost both coordinators.
This won’t be an easy win by any stretch but I’m taking the Aggies here due to the loss of coordinators for the Hogs.
Chance of winning – 60%
Aggies: 5-0
Alabama:
I have no clue what to make of this Alabama team. They also lost both of their coordinators but that’s never been an issue for Nick Saban.
The biggest question for this Alabama team is who’s going to play quarterback. Coming out of spring practice they went and got Tyler Buchner who was looking like Notre Dame’s backup quarterback this season. That’s not a good sign when you’re getting a backup quarterback after spring practice. Buchner is familiar with Tommy Rees who is the new Bama OC so that’s the reason they got him.
Because of the question mark at quarterback and because Bama lost TWO games in 2022 everyone believes the Bama dynasty is done. Bama lost both games on the road against rivals thanks to a game-ending field goal and overtime two-point conversion.
They lost two games by a combined 4 points and have a question at starting quarterback so the dynasty is over in a lot of people’s eyes.
I do think there are more questions of the 2023 Bama team than any team in the recent Saban era but they’re still Bama and coached by Nick Saban. I can’t write them off.
My heart says the Aggies pull this off but I need to see that Miami game first and how Bama looks in their first five games. My head says take Bama at the current moment.
Chance of winning – 35%.
Aggies: 5-1
Tennessee:
In the second half of last season, I thought the Tennessee Volunteers might be poised for a pretty decent drop-off in 2023. I thought Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt were the secret sauce.
Then Tennessee dominated Clemson in the Orange Bowl with no Hendon Hooker or Jalin Hyatt. I get Clemson isn’t the national championship-caliber team they’ve been in the past. However, they’ve still got PLENTY of talent relative to most teams in college football and they couldn’t do anything against Tennessee in that game.
I think Josh Heupel is going to plug in Joe Milton at quarterback and keep rolling. Not saying the Aggies can’t win this game but it sure feels like a certain loss. Especially on the road.
There’s a good chance Tennessee is the best team in the SEC in 2023. What a year to draw them.
Chance of winning – 10%
Aggies: 5-2
Bye Week:
The Bye couldn’t come at a better time for us. It’ll be right after two of the toughest games on the schedule. I like to think we’ll be competitive in every game up until this point. If that’s the case I think we’ll use the Bye to regain our composure and set us up well for the final five games.
These final 5 game predictions are based solely on a belief that an A&M team has shown up every week and competed in the previous 7 games. If the wheels are wobbling or even off then the predictions for the final five games are total trash.
We’re going to find out everything we need to know about the 2023 Aggie season in the first seven games.
South Carolina:
Thanks to a kickoff returned for a touchdown and two early offensive turnovers the Gamecocks finally got to hold that coveted Bonham Trophy the Aggies have held every year since this “fierce” rivalry started in 2014.
Shane Beamer has some real momentum in South Carolina right now and has Spencer Rattler coming back for another season. I don’t think it’ll be enough as the Aggies want that Bonham Trophy back.
The Aggies be coming off another bye week like last season against South Carolina but I don’t think they’ll make the same mistakes they made in Columbia so the Aggies take this one.
Chance of winning – 60%.
Aggies: 6-2
Ole Miss:
Thanks to Jimbo’s blindness and stubbornness, Lane Kiffin has pulled down Jimbo’s pants the last two seasons.
I like to think that trend stops this season as Ole Miss completely collapsed down the stretch last season. I think that trend continues in 2023 and Ole Miss has a pretty tough season from a record standpoint.
Ole Miss has a lot of talent at quarterback but I question the rest of their team. They still have decent talent but not on the level of A&M assuming we’re mostly healthy. If we’re healthy we should win this game.
I secretly hope this is the year that Jimbo and Durkin enact their revenge on Kiffin’s smart-ass comments by blowing the doors off Ole Miss at their home. I want Kiffin embarrassed in front of his home crowd.
My guess is it’ll be another tough-fought game the Aggies barely eke out. Either way, a win over Ole Miss is a win over Ole Miss and I’ll take it.
Chance of winning – 60%.
Aggies: 7-2
Mississippi State:
We get Mississippi State at Kyle which is a huge help. We don’t do well in Starkville.
I feel bad for Mississippi State as they have to replace Mike Leach so this feels like a transition year for them. I think that will be reflected in their record.
It won’t be easy but I think this is a win for the Aggies. Just too many question marks for Mississippi State in 2023.
Chance of winning – 70%
Aggies: 8-2
Abilene Christian:
The final home game of 2023 will be against Abilene Christian. I can’t tell you how excited I will be when the SEC goes to a 9 game schedule and this meaningless game in November is gone.
My only question for this game is what the weather will be like and how many folks show up.
Chance of winning – 100%.
Aggies 9-2
LSU:
I look at LSU like I look at Alabama to a degree. They get the benefit of the doubt due to roster talent and history. That’s a good enough reason because it’s held.
The problem I have with LSU is that I don’t think their roster is as deep as it’s been in seasons past. They still have really good talent at key starting spots but I don’t think they’re as talented and as deep as in past seasons.
I also don’t think Jayden Daniels is a game-changing quarterback against talented teams. He’s extremely talented so I think he’ll beat a lot of equal or less teams but I don’t think he’s an elite quarterback that can elevate his game against top defenses. At least not his passing game.
If LSU doesn’t win in overtime against Alabama they’re an 8-4 team and the clear 4th best team in the SEC in 2022. Because of that, I can’t quite figure out what to think of LSU going into 2023.
I think the Aggies stand a really good chance to win this game with their defense. However, going into Death Valley on a Saturday night has proven to be tough for the Aggies.
There’s just too much football to be played before this game to know the outcome right now.
I think this is a coinflip game the Tigers win simply because it’s in Baton Rouge.
Chances of winning – 50%.
Aggies: 9-3
Summary:
Until I see improvement on the field I can’t help but predict better than 9-3. I’ve been burned by Jimbo for the last two seasons. Plus, the SEC West with road trips to Miami and Tennessee is a tall order for a team coming off 5-7.
I feel like this is a 10-2 to 8-4 team.
The talent is there to win the SEC West but I don’t know if the head coaching is there. I need Jimbo to prove it on the field first.
Just Win, Jimbo