MAFGA

Thoughts on the Auburn Game

Mond vs Auburn

That loss to Auburn on Saturday was a serious deflation to the 2018 Aggie football season.  Nobody liked the lost to Mississippi State but the reality is they’re a good team that beat us from the get go.  Against Auburn it looked like everything for the 2018 season was going to get right back on track.  Then the Aggies fell apart.

Losing a game like that spans a ton of emotions.  Right after the game you’re upset and disappointed.  The next day you feel the sky is falling and Aggie football can’t get any worse.  Monday comes around and you start looking forward to the next game against Ole Miss and hopefully getting back on the good side of the win and loss column.  By the time you’ve read this you’ve forgotten all about the Auburn game for the most part.  Being a devoted sports fan is truly a span of emotions most of the time.

The reality of Saturday’s game against Auburn is this Aggie team is not as bad as some Aggie fans make it out to be.  It’s also not as good as we’d hoped from earlier in the season where we came close to upsetting Clemson and played Alabama closer than anyone in the country this season.  That’s right.  The Aggies have the closest margin of victory against the two best teams in the country.  I know.  I can go stick my moral victory where the sun doesn’t shine because we’ve lost the last two weeks and that’s what matters most right now.

The truth is this Aggie team is somewhere between the “moral victories” against Clemson and Alabama and the disgusting defeats against Mississippi State and Auburn.

Before I get to the Auburn unit analysis I want to point out a few things:

  • If Gus Malzahn had followed Joe Moorhead’s game plan there’s a chance Auburn wins this game the same way Mississippi State did where A&M never chokes away a victory. We don’t know that for sure but I was shocked Auburn didn’t come out firing through the air.  They wanted to establish the run and the Aggies flat out denied it.  Maybe Gus wanted to try and establish the run to keep our safeties’ eyes toward the line of scrimmage which worked a couple of times.  Their first touchdown on the reverse pass was based on their trying to establish the run.  Maybe Gus was afraid Stidham would throw it away like he did against LSU.  No telling the reason but I was surprised Gus didn’t attack our secondary like MSU did from the get go.  The outcome could have been a totally different where there was no lead to blow with 2 minutes left.
  • We all have our opinions but I don’t think this team is as talented as last season’s. I believe if this team had Armani Watts and Christian Kirk we would have beat one of Mississippi State or Auburn if not both.  I sure don’t see anyone in our secondary or receiving corps that is close to their level of talent.  Our defensive line and linebackers are certainly better than last year, but I think that’s more scheme and coaching along with being a season older.  Our offensive line and running backs are basically the same as last year.  I really feel our secondary isn’t even close to what we had last year with Watts and our receiving corps doesn’t have on playmaker like Kirk.  Maybe you feel this team is as talented as last year but even if that’s the case last year’s Aggie team got humiliated at Kyle Field in back to back weeks against these two teams.  We got beat 35-14 against MSU and 42-27 against Auburn.  At Kyle.  This season on the road we lost 28-13 and 28-24 to the same teams.  I know “moral victories” suck but the reality there is some progress using similar measuring sticks from 2017 to 2018.
  • This Aggie team flat out collapsed in the final minutes against Auburn. Here’s the sequence of events:
    • With 2:19 left on the clock and Auburn having just used their second timeout Kellen Mond flat out misses Quartney Davis on a wide receiver screen on 3rd and 15. Mond totally misses Davis high when Davis is wide open.  Davis doesn’t likely get a first down but at worst Mond completing that pass would have forced Auburn to use their final timeout.  Auburn would get the ball back with around 2:00 on the clock and no timeouts.
    • Mann then punts the ball 41 yards to the Auburn 14. He kicks it near the right sideline.  The Auburn returner doesn’t fair catch.  The Aggie gunner is in position to bring him down but doesn’t make a play on the returner.  He completely lets him go with no contact.  The rest of the Aggie team for whatever reason is nowhere near the returner.  Several of them are actually on the other side of the field.  Let me repeat that – the rest of the Aggie coverage team is NOWHERE NEAR the catching the ball.  Auburn had two guys back and the punt coverage team bit on the guy who wasn’t getting the ball pretending he was about to field it.    Three Aggie defenders run to where the ball isn’t.   The Auburn punt returner who is not challenged by the initial Aggie defender heads up field 28 yards where he’s brought down by Braden Mann.  That’s right, the freaking punter makes the stop when the returner was pinned to the sideline but the Aggie punt team had NO clue where the damn ball was going and let the returner go.  Great job by Auburn to fool the Aggie special teams.  Auburn now has the ball at their 42 with a little over two minutes left and one timeout.  They should be pinned inside the 20 if not the 10 with less than 2:00 left and no timeouts.

If you want to see the punt click here.  Watch it several times and start/stop to break it down and see how this was a colossal failure by our punt unit.  If they tackle the punt returner at the 14 the outcome could have been totally different I think.  Momentum wouldn’t have swung Auburn’s direction like it did after the punt return.  I set it to the Mond/Quartney Davis play so you know just how maddening and crucial these plays were in Auburn’s comeback – https://youtu.be/IlEMg2cGkCk?t=757

  • They say bad things come in threes so with the offense and special teams already on the board for bad plays the defense got involved on the next play. With our defense playing back Stidham throws a one-yard crossing route.  That’s right, a one-yard crossing route.  With no Aggie defender around the Auburn receiver heads up field where he weaves and runs into Charles Oliver at the Aggie 40-yard line.  In addition to him running into Oliver there are two other Aggie defenders within 2 yards of the ball carried and a fourth Aggie defender closing in 3 yards away.  Somehow the Auburn ball carrier spins away from all FOUR Aggie defenders and keeps running.  He winds up getting pushed out of bounds at the 11 yard line.  That’s a 47 yard gain on a 1 yard pass when he was nailed dead to rights 18 yards from the line of scrimmage.  Auburn would then put the ball in the air and score an 11 yard touchdown on the next play.
  • As if that weren’t enough the Aggies get the ball back with 1:35 and one timeout on their own 16 yard line. Not ideal, but enough time to drive down and potentially get a hail mary to try and win.
  • The Aggies get two quick plays to get to their 44 yard line.
  • On the next play Mond misses a pass to Hezekia Jones but it doesn’t matter because Quartney Davis is illegally downfield. Let’s back it up 5 yards and try again, Ags.
  • On the following play we have a screen set up for Trayveon but the unblocked defender bats the ball away.
  • Mond is then rushed where he’s basically sacked but squirms for a two yard gain. This sets up a 4th down so we take our final timeout.
  • Mond then hits Kendrick Rogers for 10 yards across midfield and a 1st
  • Mond then hits Quartney Davis on a roll out running for his life for 10 yards down to the 39 yard line and out of bounds. So, we’re at the Auburn 39 yard line with a stopped clock and 23 seconds left.  This is doable, Ags.  One problem – Davis had stepped out of bounds making him ineligible for the catch.    No play.
  • On the next play Mond is running for his life again and throws the ball away. Another problem – holding by Carson Green so back across midfield to the Aggie 41 and 12 seconds left.  One step forward and two steps back.
  • We essentially have one hail mary left. Auburn rushes 2 guys against our 5 offensive linemen and get pressure on Mond where he as to roll out and heave it downfield.  The ball is intercepted out of bounds.  After a review it’s deemed there’s one second on the clock so the Ags get one final shot.
  • This time Auburn sends three guys and gets pressure on Mond and he’s sacked for a loss of 9 yards as the time expires.   Three Auburn guys against five Aggie guys and Mond gets sacked 9 yards deep.

I know that’s a lot to read but in 2:19 of football with a 3 point lead and around midfield the Aggies have a comedy of errors on the offense, special teams, defense, and offense again.  Auburn definitely took the victory but the Aggies did nothing to stop them in the final 2:19 of the game.  I mean nothing.  That’s on the players and coaches equally.  It’s mind boggling how a team sitting on a win just completely botches so many consecutive plays.  Maybe Auburn still wins but if Mond hits Davis on the screen not even getting a first down we force their final timeout.  If our gunner stops their punt returner at the 14 he doesn’t get a free 28 yards.  Then if Charles Oliver makes the stop at our 40 maybe they hold Auburn to just a field goal sending it to overtime rather than a loss.

In the end you have to make plays but those three consecutive plays are totally maddening.  Just a lack of focus and execution by the staff and players.  They played almost 58 minutes of winning football but brain locked in the final 2 minutes and lost the game.  Football is 60 minutes and when you don’t play all those 60 minutes you stand a chance to lose.  Coffee is for closers and the Aggie football program doesn’t deserve any coffee after Auburn.

Overall:

Defense:

We all know about the issues with the secondary.  We can’t cover.  What’s interesting is our guys are not completely out of position but they can’t play the ball because they’re using every ounce of athleticism just to keep up with the offensive player.  Their lack of ability to play the ball even though they’re on the receiver shows the athleticism is just lacking.  Time and time again receivers have gone up to make plays against our defensive backs.  Unfortunately, even though our defenders are on the receiver they’re just not athletic enough to make a play on the ball.

The defensive line and linebackers were outstanding against the run.  Auburn running backs had 41 yards on 18 carries.  That’s outstanding.

Not much else to say about the defense.  We’re the best in the nation against the run.  Against the pass, well, we can see it with our own eyes.  It’s bad, Ags.

Offense:

The majority of this is going to be about Kellen Mond since he’s the focal point of every Aggie’s thoughts on why we’re losing.  Before we get to Mond I want to point out the following:

  • This offensive line is MUCH better at run blocking than pass blocking. The performance of this offensive line is deceptive because they’re pretty decent at blocking forward.  When they must slow someone down in the passing game they’re terrible at technique and assignments.  I think most of this is talent but if you’re watching the offensive line these guys leave a lot to be desired when it comes to pass blocking.  Mond may hold the ball too long but his offensive line is not helping him when it comes to giving him time and space.  He’s constantly trying to feel out pressure.
  • Trayveon Williams was a stud against Auburn. Jashaun Corbin gets better every day.  Those guys are proving to be a really good 1-2 punch against most defenses.
  • Our receiving corps is not that good. All of our receivers not named Kendrick Rogers are listed at 6’2” or shorter.  I think that’s being a bit generous as I don’t think many of these guys are over 6’.  They certainly don’t play tall at all.  They don’t go out and fight for the football.  In addition, none of them are true burners with break away speed or a knack for finding the open area on the field.  I know we’re missing Ausbon but he has yet to blossom.  Rogers is the tallest but I’m telling you he’s not a strong route runner and unless his legs are still and he’s turned back for the ball he’s not a consistent receiver.  If you want to see what I’m talking about watch that highlight film of the Auburn game above.  Watch the number of catches their guys make where they go up and get the ball.  We don’t have anyone in the receiving corps that plays above a defenders helmet other than Kendrick Rogers.  Sure, some of it is Mond isn’t making those passes but I don’t see our receivers going up and fighting for the ball on a regular basis.  Right now I wouldn’t put a single receiver on this team above any of these guys from past teams – Mike Evans, Josh Reynolds, Christian Kirk, Ryan Swope, Uzoma Nwachuku, Malcome Kennedy, Jeff Fuller, and Receiver Ryan Tannehill.  I’d take any of those guys from the past 10 years over anyone on the roster right now.  Hell, 2017 Damion Ratley might be better than anyone on the roster right now.  These guys have talent but they have a LONG ways to go to develop into a solid receiving corps.  I just don’t see it right now.

Kellen Mond:

Let’s talk about everybody’s favorite scapegoat.  Before I do I think it’s obvious no matter what anyone thinks Jimbo is sticking with Mond.  I think there’s some reasons for that.  The first is that physically Kellen Mond is fine.  His mechanics are pretty sound and he’s got mobility.  He made some plays in the Auburn game nobody else on this roster can make.  As crazy as it seems Mond was 50% passing against Auburn.  That’s not terrible.  You remember the bad throws and decisions but you forget the good throws.  He had one play where he was rolling right and then threw left hitting Sternberger on a backside drag for 42 yards.  Nobody else on this roster can make that throw.  It was really an amazing throw.  He also had some other good passes.

He’s not without fault though because his greatest issue is 100% mental.  If the play is not there he doesn’t know what to do.  He’s also slow to diagnose the play at the line.  He’s at odds with Jimbo which you can see as he comes off the field.  Jimbo is questioning his decision making and he doesn’t have an answer.  Couple his uncertainty with a line that can’t pass block and receivers that struggle to get open and fight for the ball making this offense a damn mess right now.  It’s on everyone.

Kellen Mond is basically a student that has the ability but is utterly confused on what is going on.  He understands some of what Jimbo wants him to do but not all of it.  He’s not helping himself as he’s lost confidence.  He appears afraid to make a mistake and that’s causing him to make mistakes.

It’s easy to point to Mond’s mistakes for the last two losses but I think he’s playing within what Jimbo is wanting him to do.  He’s not without fault but he’s not total garbage either.  He’s just utterly confused on what’s going on at times.  He definitely makes bad decisions at times with the ball.  At times he makes pretty good decisions and plays as well.  It’s good and bad with Mond right now.

I think it’s clear Jimbo sees something and is hoping that if he can get over his mental hurdles then he’s going to take off.  It’s basically the same thing with how people perform in their first year on the job as opposed to their second and third year.  Maybe Mond never advances from here.  I have no clue, but I understand what Jimbo sees and what his long term plan is.  Jimbo is sacrificing a little for this season hoping Mond turns into a veteran signal caller by his senior year.  No doubt Jimbo wants to win now but I think he’s also having some patience to see if he can develop Mond.  He’s the guy on his roster that fits his system the best.  Remember, Jimbo is the guy that got Deondre Francois to 10 wins a couple of seasons ago.

As for Starkel I get he’s everybody’s darling because he’s the back up.  That’s always the case.  Starkel might be a better decision maker but I don’t think he’d fare any better behind a line that can’t pass block and receivers that struggle to get open.

He was 2-5 as a starter and 1-3 in the SEC last year.  He also never beat a ranked team and I feel he was playing in a system better suited for him.  Quick reads and throws are his thing.  Sure, he got hurt against UCLA so maybe the outcome of his 2017 stats change but I’m not sure it would other than the outcome of that UCLA game.  Overall, he wasn’t that bad as he completed 60% of his passes but he did throw 6 interceptions to 14 touchdowns.  He was better against non-conference opponents as he was a 65% passer in those games as opposed to 55% in SEC games.  The big contrast was his TD/Int ratio which was 8/1 in non-conference and 6/5 in conference games.  He certainly had his challenges in SEC games last year.  It’s possible that carries over from last season but it’s also possible he improves under Jimbo.  Nobody knows that but for some reason Jimbo believes Mond is the better option.

I’d be fine if Jimbo put Starkel in but I don’t think we’d see overall improvement.  We might see a quick lift but I think defenses would learn to play Starkel with a lot of pressure.  They’d basically copy what Mississippi State did stacking gaps along the line and challenging our receivers at the snap so they couldn’t get into their routes.  They would probably apply pressure to Starkel and we’d see sack after sack I think or bad throws leading to interceptions.  Maybe not.  No way to know that but there are indications Starkel wouldn’t have time or open receivers.  It’s infinitely better for a quarterback when they both.

If you want a one sentence summary of all of everything it’s this – Jimbo makes $7.5 million a year to coach football because he has a lot of skins on the wall and right now he believes Kellen Mond is his best option to win football games.

It really boils down to that.  Maybe Jimbo is a complete moron and doesn’t know what he’s doing.  Maybe the people that don’t get paid to coach football know more than he does.  It’s entirely possible.  I’m certainly not going to say I’m right in that Mond is the better option right now than Starkel.  I do firmly believe that Mond is not as bad as some Aggie fans make him out to be.  We did come back against Clemson, put points up against Alabama, and currently sit at 3-3 in conference with wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, and South Carolina.

Mond certainly needs to improve but so does the entire talent on this team other than defensive line and starting linebackers.  Maybe Mond gets there.  Maybe he doesn’t.  You can gnash your teeth all day about Mond taking snaps but I don’t think it’s going to do any good.  There’s a different style of football being played from the past and it may take a little time to get where it needs to be.  After all, Rome wasn’t built in a day.  Yes, I went there.

At least we’re not getting our asses kicked like we have in so many games the last 4 years.  I do see that as improvement.

Looking Forward:

Right now I can’t look past Ole Miss.  I feel like coming back to Kyle and with their defense this is just what we need.  I think we’ll put the ball on the ground and keep their receivers in front of us for the most part.  Keep their offense in the red zone instead of the end zone as their red zone offense is worse than the Aggies.  We’ll get a win against Ole Miss and UAB so we’ll be sitting at 7-4 with LSU coming to town.  If Jimbo can somehow pull off the upset against LSU which is entirely possible we’d be looking at an 8-4 season with SERIOUS momentum heading into our bowl game.

I think right now EVERY Aggie fan would trade losses against MSU and Auburn for a win against LSU.  It’s an absolute long shot but football is a crazy game.  Let’s see Jimbo’s first year body of work before we decide he’s not the guy to Make Aggie Football Great Again.  I still think he is.

#MAFGA

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What’s Left for the Aggies

Jimbo Pointing at Ref

The Aggies are sitting at 5-2 with five official games left.  One of those games is against Alabama Birmingham so let’s just say the Aggies are 6-2 with four SEC games left.  Yes, I’m chalking up that game against UAB as a win.

The Aggies have Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss, and LSU left on their schedule.  Ironically enough all four of those teams played each other this past weekend.  I was able to watch bits and pieces and feel the Aggies can run the table if they play mistake free football.  I doubt that will happen and it’s more likely the Aggies go 3-1 in their final SEC games.  There’s a chance the Aggies go 2-2 as well.

These four games have always been set to be the biggest test of Jimbo’s first year as Aggie coach.  The reality of this season and schedule was the Aggies didn’t have the talent to beat Clemson or Alabama and had more talent to beat Arkansas, Kentucky, and South Carolina.  That’s not to downplay those three teams but the reality is as a team Texas A&M has more talent.  Those were wins all along assuming the team played to its talent level.

So far, this season has played out exactly as one would expect.  Now is when we find out what kind of coach Jimbo Fisher really is.  He’s about to go up against teams with as much if not more talent than Texas A&M.  Ole Miss is not more talented but they have the best passing weapons of any team we have left on the schedule.  We know how bad our secondary is.  We should beat Ole Miss but they can absolutely beat us with how their team is built.

Let’s breakdown each game:

Mississippi State:

There’s a LOT of uncertainties in this game.  I don’t think anyone can quite tell what either team is at this point.  MSU spent a good portion of the season ranked in the Top 25 but now sits at 4-3 and outside the Top 25 after this past weekend’s loss to LSU.  They have wins over Stephen F. Austin, KSU, Louisiana Lafayette, and Auburn.  They have losses against Kentucky, Florida, and LSU.  In those three loses they’ve scored one touchdown.  One touchdown.  LSU has an outstanding defense but I wouldn’t rank UK and Florida’s defenses as stellar.  They’re certainly pretty good defenses but I think the Aggie defense is as good if not better than those two.

This team centers around Nick Fitzgerald on offense.  He reminds me of a Trevor Knight style quarterback.  He’s a suspect passer but he’s a great runner.  He’s got power, speed, and jukes.  Joe Moorhead is the new coach of MSU and runs the offense.  Moorhead likes to pass so Fitzgerald’s inability to pass and ability to run appears to be a mis-match.

Early in the season it was fine as MSU was able to win their first three games in convincing fashion including a win over KSU.  They then went to Kentucky and got pounded 28-7.  The following week came a 13-6 loss to Florida at home.  In that game MSU didn’t score a touchdown.  That’s a good Florida defense but not a great Florida defense.  After five games they were sitting at 5-2 but 1-2 against P5 opponents and 0-2 against SEC teams.

After they lost to Florida they took on Auburn and Moorhead seemed to get back to Fitzgerald’s strengths as he rushed more times than he passed.  Fitzgerald ripped off 197 yards on the ground and 2 touchdowns.  MSU won that game 23-9 which might say more about Auburn than it does MSU’s ability to win with Fitzgerald running.

Last week MSU went to LSU and it appeared MSU wanted to run Fitzgerald more like against Auburn.  Fitzgerald had some nice runs early on but MSU couldn’t find the end zone all game.  Fitzgerald threw some early interceptions that allowed LSU to get a comfortable lead where they basically sat on the ball.  Fitzgerald had a decent day running as he carried the ball 23 times for 140 yards.  Passing wise he was horrible throwing the ball 24 times with only 8 completions and 4 interceptions.  That’s a 33% completion percentage.  In watching the game LSU wasn’t even really jumping routes.  LSU either had good coverage or Fitzgerald didn’t see or didn’t care there was a defender where he was throwing the ball.  He was extremely lazy or ignorant throwing the ball.

Here’s a summary of Nick Fitzgerald statistically against Power 5 opponents this season:

Fitzgerald Stats

He’s 44% in completions, averages 105 yards a game, and has thrown 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.  That is HORRIBLE.  Even Trevor Knight wasn’t that bad.  He’s a decent runner averaging 123 yards a game but he only has 3 touchdowns in 5 games with 2 of those coming against Auburn.  This is not the kind of quarterback Joe Moorhead wants.

I think the Aggie defense shuts down the run with no issues.  The key is for the Aggie defensive line along with Dodson and Alaka to continue what they’ve been doing.  Maintain gap integrity and execute assignments.  Don’t try to do too much or improvise as a play is breaking down.  Let your assignment dictate if you’re the one making the play or not.  Don’t give Fitzgerald a seam to run as he can exploit it if he gets to the second level.

Even if Fitzgerald starts to pass I think the Aggie secondary will be just fine.  If the Aggie defense plays like they’ve played all year I don’t see MSU scoring more than 10 points against this defense.  If UK, UF, and LSU can hold them to single digits I expect the same from the Aggie defense.

Defensively the MSU front 7 is experienced and talented but they’re not better than Clemson or Alabama’s front 7.  The Aggies put up 26 and 23 points on those defenses so I expect more of the same here.  In fact, the Aggies have scored more than 20 points in every game all season.  I don’t see how this game is any different.

It won’t be pretty but I think Jimbo is going to do the same thing he’s done all season against opponents not named Clemson and Alabama.  He’s going to come out and chew up clock not trying to do too much on offense letting his defense do what they do.  I think this will be what we thought South Carolina was going to be.  We’ll be up 13-3 at half and then won’t make mistakes in the second half pulling away winning this game 27-10.  It’s entirely possible we hold MSU without a touchdown but I think Moorhead finds a way to break off a big pass play against our defense.

This feels a lot like 2012 when we walked into Starkville.  There were a lot of questions about those teams where the Aggies where ranked 16th coming off an Auburn beatdown and MSU was ranked 17th after a beatdown by Bama the week before.  They were on the downswing and A&M was on a slight upswing after pounding Auburn.  The Aggies won a convincing 38-13 game and we all know what happened after that.  This team won’t do what the 2012 team lighting up college football, but I think this will be a game where we look back and know Jimbo is for real.  It may not happen at the national level but those paying attention will see this game as A&M showing it’s truly different than the past 4 seasons.

Somehow A&M is the underdog in this game so feel free to take the points and wager your house, boat, vehicle and even loved ones.  Jimbo will make sure your money and/or loved ones return with more than you put up as collateral.  Assuming you want more loved ones than you have now.  If not, then just put up cash and personal property.

Auburn:

I have no clue what to make of Auburn.  They’re more talented than their record indicates but they’re just disjointed.  This is basically a normal Gus Malzahn team other than when he catches lightening in a bottle.  He’s only done that twice winning 10 games in 5 seasons.  At best he goes 9-3 this season but that would include wins over A&M, UGA, and Bama.  That ain’t happening.

I feel good about A&M’s chances in this game except for one thing – Jarret Stidham.  He’s not had the season everyone expected but he’s still a damn good passer and has some decent weapons.  If Auburn decides to attack the Aggie secondary and his receivers hold on to the ball they’ll beat the Aggies.  They’ll be coming off a bye week so they have plenty of time to work on the passing game before the Aggies get to town.

I put this game as a 55/45 chance of the Aggies winning right now.  If the Aggies do what I think they do against MSU and Auburn doesn’t/won’t/can’t attack the Aggie secondary then this is an Aggie win.  Trends favor the Aggies as Gus tends to have very average years after catching lightening in a bottle and ironically enough the road team has won every A&M/Auburn matchup since joining the SEC.  Coming into the season I had this as a loss but right now I’m leaning to an Aggie victory.

Ole Miss:

This matchup scares me ever so slightly because Ole Miss strengths are where we’re weakest.  They’ve got a solid quarterback and really good receivers.  They can attack the Aggie secondary.  Fortunately for the Aggies they’ve got a HORRIBLE defense and they’re bad in the red zone.  Don’t be shocked to see Ole Miss put up over 300 yards in the air.  The problem is they’ll run for less than 100 while scoring less than 20 if they even get that.

Meanwhile I expect the Aggie offense to roll up and down the field likely scoring more than 35 points.  This seems like an easy Aggie win.  However, there’s a slight chance it’s one of those bizarre games where Ole Miss hits some long passes for touchdowns so this game turns into a shootout.  I don’t think Jimbo and company will get sucked into something like that though.  Jimbo once came back down 28-6 in the 2016 season opener against Ole Miss to win 45-34.  He’s dealt with an early Ole Miss lead before and won.  Even if Ole Miss somehow gets up early on some fluke plays Jimbo will stay the course and exploit their terrible defense.  This seems like a certain Aggie win.

UAB:

Win.  Nothing more to say.  If we don’t it’s a BAD loss.

LSU:

Right now I think this is an Aggie loss.  Mainly I don’t want to drink the Aggie Kool-Aid just yet and there’s too much uncertainty for both teams.  Despite what others said coming into the season LSU is a really talented team and Ed Orgeron is not the idiot everyone thinks he is.  Turns out he’s a pretty decent coach with a pretty good staff.

The LSU defense is still extremely talented and Joe Burrow has moments where he can throw the ball.  What you can’t do against LSU is throw interceptions on your side of the field and let them establish the run.  I know that sounds obvious but you’d be shocked at the teams that allow them to do that.  Just ask Miami, Georgia, and MSU.  LSU plays a brand of football where they don’t make mistakes and force the other team to make mistakes where they’ll capitalize.  It’s simple but EXTREMELY effective when you have the talent that LSU has.

I think this is a VERY winnable game for the Aggies but it won’t be easy.  If Florida can beat LSU with Feleipe Franks at quarterback there’s no reason the Aggies can’t beat LSU with their defense and Mond at quarterback.  It’s just too early to predict this game right now.

I need to see what A&M does against MSU, Auburn, and Ole Miss when it comes to making mistakes.  Even if they win those games but make mistakes they’ll lose to LSU.  I also need to see what LSU does against Bama to make sure they’re the team I think they are.  They’ll likely lose to Bame by 20 points even in Baton Rouge.  I think Bama is that good and LSU is slightly worse than they’ve been in the past.  However, if LSU goes toe to toe with Bama then my outlook on this game completely changes.  I don’t see that happening though.  I just need 2 more weeks of Aggie and LSU football to get a more certain feel on this one

Overall:

There’s a REALLY good chance A&M and LSU march into Kyle Field at 9-2 hovering around the Top 10 (if not both Top 10)  which will make for an epic battle.  This is still not the 2012 team in terms of talent but it’s possible Jimbo pulls off an epic run finishing the season at 10-2.  The odds right now say he won’t but it’s very possible.

If he does there’s no doubt he’ll be well on his way to Making Aggie Football Great Again!

#MAFGA

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Thoughts from the Arkansas Game

2018 Arkansas Defense

The four quarters the Aggies played against Arkansas was extremely confusing.  It was confusing because the Aggie were extremely inconsistent.  If you think back through the whole game the final 7-point win wasn’t nearly as close as it felt.  The main problem from a fan’s standpoint is everyone kept expecting the Aggies to put Arkansas away and never did.  It felt like Arkansas was gaining momentum but they never could capitalize.  At the end of the day the Aggies held the lead from start to finish.  Arkansas was never in a position to seriously tie the game either.  A&M was more dominant than the 7-point win indicates.

Based on how both teams had played coming into the game it’s reasonable to have expected the Aggies to win in convincing fashion.  Couple that with the fact A&M returned the opening kick for a touchdown, held Arkansas to a three and out, and then scored on their first offensive possession to be up 14-0 not even halfway through the first quarter and it compounds those expectations.  That’s not how the game played out though.

A&M played an extremely inconsistent game and Arkansas never quit.  A&M had some untimely penalties, key drops, Mond threw a very bad interception in the first half, and Seth Small missed a couple of key field goals that could have kept momentum in A&M’s favor.  Because that happened Arkansas was able to hang around with a chance to tie the game late in the 4th quarter.  It doesn’t mean Arkansas every really had a chance to win this game.

The good news is the Aggies played a game with a lot of mental mistakes and were still able to control the game for the most part.  The bad news is the Aggies played a game with a lot of mental mistakes and had they played a better opponent they lose that game.  It shows that despite some positives against Clemson and Alabama the Aggies still have a lot of work to do.

Still, a win is a win so you’ll take this.  I think the old regime would have let this game get to overtime or even lose.  This Aggie regime and team found enough plays to make sure the game was never truly in question.  When looking at the score don’t forget while the Aggies never put Arkansas away they never let them fully get up off the mat.  A&M controlled the game from start to finish despite making a lot of mistakes.

Offense:

Kellen Mond:

I’ll start with Kellen Mond because most folks are wondering what happened with him.  What’s funny is if this is 2017 Kellen Mond we all just shrug our shoulders and say, “Yep, that’s Kellen Mond.”  In 2018 we raise our hands and say, “What was going on with Mond?”  That’s how much Mond has lifted the bar on himself in one season.  Mond was 17 for 26 for 201 yards with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.  One of those interceptions was a bad throw intended for Sternberger and the other one was a bad decision where he didn’t see someone sitting under the receiver.  He still completed 65% of his passes with two big drops by Ausbon in the first quarter.  If Ausbon catches those two balls then Mond is a 73% passer on the day.  Completion wise Mond didn’t have a terrible day.

Decision wise Mond didn’t have a great day at all.  He was hesitant to throw it seemed like.  I don’t know if it was by design but he wasn’t really active in the pocket.  He stood in the pocket way more than he has all season.  We didn’t have any rollouts or bootlegs for the most part.  Mond didn’t step up much in the pocket either like he did mostly against Clemson.  There was some pressure up the middle thanks to Arkansas blitzes but Mond was way more statuesque than any game this season.  I really thought Jimbo would move Mond around a lot more in the second half trying to make things happen.  That didn’t happen.

Mond seemed confused by the look the Arkansas secondary was giving him most of the game.  He wasn’t real decisive at all on his passes.  There were certainly times he let the ball fly early but for the most part he was slow in making his reads.  His most decisive series was the last one of the first half.  On the A&M 26 with 1:45 left to go in the half he hit Hezekiah Jones on 3 straight passes around 10 yards each and then hit Sternberger for 13 yards.  He then threw 2 more passes to Jones but missed them.  In 6 consecutive passes he targeted Jones 5 times with quick reads.  A part of this was because Arkansas was playing back to not give up a big play but Mond was definitely decisive on that drive.

All in all I don’t think Mond was as terrible as Aggie fans made it out to be.  I think Mond has raised the bar so high fans were expecting a 400 yard 3 touchdown game through the air.  I think some credit must go to Arkansas and John Chavis in confusing Mond and the lack of adjustment by Jimbo and staff.  Not saying Chavis outcoached Jimbo as the proof is on the scoreboard but I think Arkansas anticipated a lot of what A&M planned on doing and that created enough confusion where Mond was slow to make plays.

Running Back:

I love Trayveon Williams but he just seems like a mis-match for this offensive line and scheme.  He’s still an outstanding back so don’t get me wrong but he’s not a between the tackles runner.  This reminds me of when Sumlin and Spav had Tra Carson.  They wanted Carson to run outside the tackles when Carson was built to run between the tackles.  Too bad we can’t flip Tra and Trayveon as they’re better suited for different schemes.

Trayveon wound up with 152 yards and 2 TDs on 29 carries.  His effort was incredible.  The problem with Trayveon is he can’t break tackles at the second level when he runs through the middle of the line.  I’ll get to why in a bit but if the dude had a little more weight to him he’d be a complete stud.  As it is he’s a solid back but he’s a guy that needs space to make things happen.  Either way I’m not going to complain about his effort when he racked up 152 yards and 2 scores on 29 carries.  That’s a heck of a day for any running back.

Corbin got a few snaps on the third series so I think it’s pretty clear he’s the new back up to Trayveon.  I’m good with it as he’s looked good the times he’s been in there.  I’ll talk about his kickoff return in a bit.

Wide Receivers:

I’m not sure what happened to the receiving corps on Saturday but they were largely non-existent.  Mond was slow to let the ball go but the receivers weren’t getting open.  We lost Ausbon in the first quarter so that didn’t help.  Still, the receivers weren’t getting open at all.  Camron Buckley was by far the best receiver on the day catching 5 passes for 72 yards followed by Sternberger who caught 4 passes for 51 yards.  Hezekiah Jones was the only other receiver that caught multiple passes catching 4 passes for 33 yards with 3 of those coming on one series.

Mond tried to hit Kendrick Rogers deep a couple of times but missed.  The first time Rogers had his arm held down and got a pass interference call.  The second time they just couldn’t connect with some solid defense on Rogers.  There just wasn’t anything that really stood out in the passing game.  Credit to the Arkansas defense for putting a coverage out there that didn’t allow for much opportunity through the air.

The loss of Ausbon seems like a major loss but I don’t know if it is.  He’s an outstanding receiver but up until this point his talent has been largely untapped.  He’s certainly not the contributor Christian Kirk was through his first two seasons at this point.  The Aggies are still looking for a go to receiver in this group as there has been no one to emerge through five games.  With the injury to Ausbon I think the coaching staff needs to strongly consider burning the redshirt of Jalen Preston if that was the plan.  I don’t think Preston will be a contributor like Kirk in his first season but he has the physical tools.  We might as well expose him to SEC football and see what he has.

Offensive Line:

The offensive line as a unit actually played a pretty good game on Saturday.  They were able to get Trayveon 3-4 yards on most carries and gave Mond enough time to pass picking up blitzes by Arkansas.  It wasn’t a dominant effort by any stretch but it was certainly serviceable and not the weakness of what took place on the field.  I would consider this their best game this season.  The downside in this game is they had some bad penalties that cost the Aggies momentum.

The main problem to this unit is they don’t do a very good job of blocking at the second level.  This offensive line is pretty good at engaging the defensive line at the line of scrimmage.  However, when they go to the second level looking for linebackers and safeties to block they’re not that great.  This is why Trayveon isn’t able to bust off big runs up the middle.  I’m glad they’re able to get Trayveon holes at the line on scrimmage but when they release to take on linebackers they usually whiff.  To me this is just a sign of pure lack of athleticism.  These guys just aren’t that talented.

When this line gets 2 steps from the line of scrimmage they’re lost on who and how to block.  I’ve seen this occur with the tight ends and fullbacks as well.  You’ll see these guys pull or release into the second level and they’re just lost on who to block.  I saw Cullen Gillaspia lead block for Trayveon and not hit anyone.  He’s the fullback and just walked into the second level passing up guys to hit.  By the time Trayveon was tackled Gillaspia hadn’t hit anyone.  That’s really bad.  It’s not just Gillaspia either.  I saw Trevor Wood do the same along with a couple linemen on other plays.

Most offensive line coaches will get frustrated when you miss an assignment.  Most offensive line coaches get really upset when you fail to hit someone.  I don’t think there’s an offensive line coach that will get truly upset if you’re trying to block someone.  I’m seeing a lot of these Aggie blockers hit the second level and not even blocking a linebacker or safety coming for our running back.  I think it goes back to they’re just not that athletic and that needs to change through recruiting.

This offensive line should could use a guy like Aldo DeLaGarza who could bench press Buicks and karate kick Bruce Lee.  That’s your message board LOL for the week.

Coaching/Game Planning:

As much as the players appear to be at fault for this game I think the coaching staff deserves just as much blame.  I didn’t see any wrinkles in this game like I saw against Clemson and Alabama.  The staff certainly schemed against Arkansas specifically.  I don’t want to say they just ran out a junior high game plan but there wasn’t really anything we hadn’t seen from this offense so far this year.  The Chavis lead defense seemed well prepared for much of what the Aggie offense was trying to do.

It speaks well the Aggie offense was still able to roll up over 400 yards of offense so it’s not like the offense was completely stagnant.  If Seth Small makes his two missed field goals and Mond doesn’t throw his second interception which could have set up a fifth field goal or even touchdown this looks like a completely different game with 6 to 13 more potential points.  Still not as dominant as we would have liked but it would have been more comfortable.

I don’t think Jimbo was sand bagging or afraid to show too much but what we did is what we’ve done on offense all season.  Maybe because the game was never really in question Jimbo wanted to see how his offense could do without any wrinkles.  The reality is we did move the ball but had some costly mistakes in penalties, interceptions, and missed field goals that greatly affected the final score.  I’d rather see 400 yards of offense with mistakes but controlled the game as opposed to 400 yards with a furious comeback.

It’s clear this offense still has work to do so we’ll see if the players and coaching staff are up to the challenge.

Defense:

Before I get into unit breakdowns let’s be clear that without the defensive effort on Saturday the Aggies likely lose this game.  It’s possible the offense would have tried some different things to score more points but the Aggie defense was the part of the team that controlled this game.  Arkansas had 248 yards of total offense in this game.  That’s a damn fine defensive effort even if Arkansas appears to be a weak conference opponent.  They practically shut down the running game with 55 total yards on 26 attempts.  This certainly wasn’t old school Wrecking Crew defense but this was a REALLY dominant effort by the defense.  The Aggie Defense stepped up in a big way and deserve a TON of credit for this win.

Defensive Line:

Words can’t even describe what the defensive line did in this game.  They weren’t dominant from a pressure standpoint but their gap discipline was unreal.  They never let Arkansas get outside and forced everything in the middle.  Along the way Landis Durham, Kingsley Keke, Justin Madubuike, and Daylon Mack accounted for five sacks.  That’s pretty damn impressive when you spread out five sacks across your starting front four.  Daylon Mack also contributed an additional tackle for a loss along with a quarterback hurry.  This was no doubt Daylon’s best game statistically but he’s been giving this effort all year.  It’s taken him 4 years but he appears to finally be the player we always thought he’d be.

As for the other guys they just did their normal thing.  It honestly doesn’t look dominant because they’re so good at executing their assignments and letting the ball come to them naturally to make a play.  They’re not just trying to be disruptive and make plays individually.  I really feel all four guys are working their assignments knowing someone will make the play if the ball comes in their direction.  Can’t say enough about those four guys in this game.

I saw quite a few backups in there at times   Bobby Brown looked to have gotten quite a few snaps.  The starters are the meat of this unit but there’s some quality backups giving them relief.  I don’t think there’s any doubt the defensive line is the strongest unit of this entire team.  This is a different game without the effort by the defensive line.

Linebackers:

Obviously we all know about Tyrel Dodson thanks to Jimbo grabbing his facemask.  Personally I wished it wouldn’t have happened because the optics don’t look good.  However, I don’t think it’s as bad as people barking for attention are making it out to be.  Dodson was stirred up and Jimbo was trying to focus him away from what was going on.  He didn’t want Dodson getting ejected.

As a player I don’t think most Aggie fans realize Tyrel Dodson is a special player.  He’s really in the mold of Dat Nguyen and Von Miller from a talent standpoint.  It just hasn’t shown up in stats and highlights.  If he played at Alabama he’d be an all SEC Linebacker.  There’s no doubt in my mind.  The dude is extremely talented and he’s definitely going to play on Sundays.  I wish he’d get more attention for his efforts but the guy goes hard every play.  He’s great and cleaning up what the defensive line doesn’t take care of it.  He’s going to take on a blocker so someone else can make a play if that’s his assignment.  He just does his job extremely well.

Otara Alaka got all the statics in this game with 3 solo tackles and 4 assists.  I’m not trying to take anything away from Alaka as he too plays with great heart.  The more I watch Dodson I realize how much he truly means to this defense.  He’s a stud.  He and Alaka are a formidable pair right behind the Aggie defensive line.

Secondary:

I’m shocked Chad Morris didn’t attack the Aggie secondary more than he did.  Their quarterback ran 5 times not including his sacks.  Of those 5 I didn’t count how many were designed runs and how many were flushes but it seems like 2-3 were designed runs.  Counting sacks as passes then Arkansas attempted 21 runs and 32 passes on the Aggie defense.  That’s a 40/60 mix so it did favor the pass but they didn’t do that until late in the second half.  For most of the first three quarters they were balanced running and passing the ball.  I would have lined up empty back at least 20 times and tested the Aggie secondary.  Maybe it wouldn’t have worked but if I was Morris I definitely would have tried passing rather than worrying about establishing the run against the Aggie defensive line.  He didn’t so I personally believe the Aggies benefited from his decision to try and stay balanced.

It’s a little tough to truly grade out this Aggie secondary as Arkansas passed 27 times with 14 completions.  That’s a little better than 50% completion.  They totaled 193 yards through the air with one touchdown and one interception.

Statistically that’s not a bad day for the Aggie secondary.  Watching the game though it felt like the Aggie secondary just wasn’t really tested by Arkansas and when they were they gave up some plays they shouldn’t have.  Most notably the two consecutive passes in the 4th quarter that totaled 53 yards with the second resulting in a touchdown that made the game 17-24.  That was right after the drive where A&M had scored to go up 24-10.  It was deflating to watch the Aggie secondary give up two big pass plays in a row letting Arkansas get within 7 points with enough time to get the ball back.

In the end Donovan Wilson made a big interception on Arkansas’ last drive to seal the victory.  Credit to Wilson for making that play.  In years past that drive likely results in a touchdown where A&M and Arkansas go to overtime yet again.  We’ve been fine in overtime in this series since joining the SEC but thanks to Wilson there was no need to see if we’d be fine yet again.

Of the 14 Arkansas completions 5 of those went for more than 15 yards.  That’s a little over 33% going for good chunks of yardage.  I just can’t get over the feeling this secondary will be prone to big pass plays for the rest of the year.  If an offensive coordinator can get his line to buy enough time where he can flood the secondary with receivers I feel like our secondary will struggle to cover everyone.  Despite a completion percentage around 50% and the big interception, the 5 pass plays over 15 yards still gives me concern when it comes to this secondary.  I can’t help but wonder what this game looks like if our defensive line didn’t get their 5 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries.  Until they prove me wrong this secondary is going to concern me for the rest of this season.

Special Teams:

We’ll start with the obvious which was the opening kick return by Corbin.  It was beautiful as he caught the ball and headed upfield.  When he saw a hole develop he accelerated to it and then turned on the jets getting outside where he was able to outrun everyone to the endzone.  He had great blocking but make no mistake his speed made the difference.  There were some guys who had angles and made it close but Corbin clearly has enough speed to take it to the house.  If I’m not mistaken they didn’t kick it Corbin’s way the rest of the game.  I guess Brett Bielema called Chad Morris to let him know it’s not wise to kick off to certain guys in this game.

Braden Mann was his usual awesome self punting 4 times with an average of 48.8 yards.  That includes a long of 65 where he almost angled it out of bounds inside the five but instead it went in for a touchback.  That was his first punt and it was amazing.  I’ve never seen someone try and angle a kick out of bounds that distance but he almost pulled it off.  His two punts in the third quarter went for 50 yards and were fielded inside the 10 including one downed at the one-yard line.  That was key in keeping Arkansas’ offense pinned and not letting them get any real momentum.  His shortest punt which killed his average was his last one where he only kicked it 31 yards to the Arkansas 26 and it was fair caught.  I think the point of that kick was to make sure Arkansas couldn’t return it as he was punting from A&M’s 43 yard line.  Without that kick he would have averaged almost 55 yards a kick including those two pinned inside the ten.  This dude is a flat out weapon.

I’ve heard some people claim Roshauud Paul isn’t a good punt returner.  I actually like him a lot.  Sure, he hasn’t made any special punt returns but I like how he fields the ball.  He seems really aware of the punt coverage and if it’s possible to get yards.  I haven’t seen him make a mistake when calling or not calling for a fair catch and he’s caught some balls in heavy traffic.  If you don’t have a Christian Kirk or Dante Hall give me a guy that’s smart in catching the ball.  The last thing you need is a guy trying to be a punt return hero and giving up the ball.  That will change the momentum of a game in a hurry.

Obviously the worst part of special teams was Seth Small.  The true freshman who looked so good in Tuscaloosa looked pretty bad at JerryWorld.  He was 1 for 3 missing two VERY makeable kicks of 36 and 33 yards.  One was right before half that would have given the Aggies a nice 20-7 lead.  The worst was in the 4th quarter he hit the upright with the Aggies only leading 17-10.  The Aggies had a nice 5-minute drive and making that kick would have kept momentum squarely in A&M’s direction.  As it was it hit the uprights and the Arkansas bench and fans exploded feeling they had a legit chance to win the game.  The Aggie offense and defense ultimately kept Arkansas at bay but it would have been nice if Small could have helped kill their belief they had a chance to win.  I guess we’ll wait another week to see if we have an automatic kicker like the kid that showed up in Tuscaloosa.  We sure need someone like that.

Overall:

While there’s a lot to not like about this game the reality is the Aggies controlled a game at a neutral sight at 11:00 am after the Alabama game.  I would have liked to have seen a more convincing score but the Aggies controlled that game from start to finish.  There’s a lot of mistakes and play to clean up but anytime you’re that inconsistent and make that many mistakes in an SEC game you should be happy to get the win.  Not happy with the effort and execution but happy to get the win without a doubt.

 

Going Forward:

I’m still leaving my season prediction at 8-4.  Kentucky and South Carolina won’t be easy games but I like our chances against them.  Getting Kentucky for a night game at Kyle is a huge help for us.  South Carolina doesn’t look as good as I originally thought but that’s still going to be a tough road game.  The 2:30 start definitely helps us in my mind.  Ole Miss still looks extremely beatable and Mississippi State looks more and more beatable.  I just hope that game isn’t at 11:00 a.m. in Starkville.  Would be nice to have the Aggies ranked squarely in the Top 25 coming off a bye week so we can get a night kick for that game.  Get those 4 wins coupled with UAB and we’re at 8-4 headed to a decent bowl game.

I really think Auburn is beatable but Stidham against our secondary scares the living daylights out of me right now.  As for LSU let’s get to November and see more games before we worry about breaking that SEC drought.

That Arkansas game certainly didn’t alleviate any concerns but it’s a nice win no matter how it looked.  I’ve got the Make Aggie Football Great Again Kool-Aid powder ready and just waiting on Jimbo and the boys to give me the water so I can get to mixing.  I guess Jimbo is still figuring out the right quantity of water so it tastes just right!

#MAFGA

 

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Thoughts on the Alabama Game

Mond Alabama Getting tackled

Where I saw the Clemson game as validation of something different in our coaching staff this Alabama game was certainly a moral victory.  Moral victories aren’t good but they’re better than a straight beatdown where there’s no positives.  We held Bama below 50 points, scored more than 20 points, and covered the 27 point spread.  I don’t like moral victories but that was a moral victory.  For a lot of fans that haven’t seen Bama play this year they didn’t realize the Alabama offense is a different beast with Tua Tagovailoa as quarterback.  My comparison is Saban has had a nice V6 Honda Accord at quarterback since he got to Bama and got a Ferrari this season.  This Bama offense is different than anything he’s had before.  There’s a reason Vegas put a 27-point spread on this game.  They weren’t far off.

I don’t know that A&M beats a Jalen Hurts quarterbacked offense but there’s no doubt in my mind A&M would lose that game by less than 2 touchdowns and likely single digits.  Tua is that much of a difference maker for the Bama offense.  It’s likely Bama loses a game this season but in my mind this is the best Bama team Nick Saban has coached.  When you see that 45-23 score just know this is a different Bama offense than you’ve ever seen.

Overall I like what I saw in this game from a relative talent standpoint.  Bama is loaded with talent and the Aggies have holes.  Bama exposed those holes in a major way but the Aggie players and coaching staff never quit.  This could have been a similar game to 59-0 but the players and coaching staff weren’t going to let that happen.  A lot of teams would have quit after giving up an interception on their first offensive possession and then giving up a touchdown on the first play by the opposing offense.  When you’re on the road in Tuscaloosa and Bama gets an interception and then scores on their first play to go up 7-0 in less than a minute that can be REALLY demoralizing.  This Aggie team didn’t quit though.  Credit the Aggie players and coaches for that.  If an Aggie fan tells you they didn’t have thoughts of 59-0 dancing through their head check to see if their nose is growing.  Luckily this is a different Aggie team than in the past.

I still believe while not as talented as teams in the past few years this is a better Aggie football team than the last few years.  I like what I see on the field even if I don’t like what I see on the scoreboard and stat sheet.  I’ve said since Jimbo got here that 2020 would be the season where the Aggies finally push through to the elite teams of college football.  There’s no doubt Jimbo is trying to win today but there’s holes he can’t plug until his recruiting classes get on campus and get some experience.  This could have been a blowout but it didn’t happen.  Don’t discount what could have been when you see that 45-23 score.

Offense:

Offensive Line:

I’m starting with the worst part of the offense for the game.  I’ve consistently said this is the weakest part of the offense by far.  Saturday that showed up.  Mond was sacked 7 times as the offensive line continually whiffed at slowing down Bama defenders.  It was partially due to talent deficiencies but it was also due to blown assignments.  Those talent deficiencies might have lead to the mental issues but either way the offensive line was exposed for needing serious help from a talent standpoint.  We just don’t have the talent we need at offensive line to compete as an elite team.  They do have their moments where they can create plays thanks to the play design but for the most part this line struggles against more athletic defensive lines.

Tray Williams is not a bruiser running back but there was nothing between the tackles at all.  They weren’t getting blown back on running plays but they weren’t getting any push or creating holes to run through.  I suppose creating a stalemate on running plays against the Bama defense is a positive thing but that’s got to get better.  The offensive line has got to get backwards movement if they’re not going to create holes.

From a pass blocking standpoint they were pretty bad continually blowing assignments when Bama blitzed.  I’m afraid Bama just gave teams a blueprint on how to slow down our offense with blitzes.  I don’t recall Clemson blitzing like Bama did.  Bama had great success running blitzes against our offensive line so I expect to see more of that from defensive opponents going forward.  Our offensive line must get that cleaned up or Mond is not going to have a lot of time to throw.  Sure, Bama has superior talent but there were plays where our offensive line couldn’t read the blitz at all.  That is really disappointing.

If we need to shuffle our offensive line personnel to get experience for the future I’m fine with it.  I’m not saying this line is a steaming pile of junk as they do execute some plays well but this offensive line has issues.  A&M won’t be dominant until their offensive line is dominant.  Like getting a truckload of Coors from Texarkana to Atlanta we’ve got a long ways to get there.

Skill Positions:

We knew it was going to be tough sledding for Tray Williams coming into this game and it was.  He carried the ball 8 times for 32 yards.  He had two nice runs outside but other than those two runs there wasn’t anything there for him.  That’s not his fault as he’s not designed to run behind our offensive line against that Bama defense.  Just a total mis-match.  At least we didn’t continually run between the tackles and just tested it from time to time.

At receiver no one dominated at all.  The unit had some nice catches but were wildly inconsistent getting open and catching balls.  Kendrick Rogers is looking like Mond’s safety blanket but they failed to connect on a couple passes where the ball should have been thrown better or Rogers should have caught it.  This unit isn’t wildly talented but they seem to be a little more disciplined than receiving corps of the past.

Against teams not named Alabama I think there’s enough weapons here to move the ball through the air with more work.  Getting 263 yards through the air using 9 receivers against Alabama is a decent sign even with their mistakes.  I’m happy with the development I’m seeing here.  It’s shorter on talent than we’ve had the past few years but they seem to have some promise as a complete unit.  We’ll see if they keep developing as there’s definitely work to do but they seem up to the task.  At least they did make a few plays rather than be completely afraid of a team like Bama.  I think a lot of that has to do with the next part of our offense.

Kellen Mond:

I can’t say enough about Kellen Mond on Saturday.  He’s the reason this team didn’t quit.  He threw 2 interceptions and had some missed passes but it wasn’t from lack of effort.  The dude was under pressure all day long and never backed down from the best team in the country.  He used his head, arm, and legs all game long.

I can’t believe this is the same Kellen Mond from last season.  It’s completely night and day.  The dude keeps developing every game and it bodes well for Aggie Football over the next few years.  In 2020 Kellen Mond will be a senior and I think he’ll be the key reason A&M breaks through to the elite level of college football.  He’s not as talented as a Tua but he’s young and pretty complete right now on decision making.  He just needs more experience executing plays so it becomes second nature.  I don’t see any reason why he won’t continue to get better.  I’m pleasantly shocked at what I’ve seen from Kellen Mond through 4 games this season.  Maybe one day we’ll send Kevin Sumlin a flower bouquet for recruiting Mond over Jarret Stidham.  We’ll just need to make sure we get his address correct because there’s no telling where Sumlin will be at the end of 2020.  Yes, Kevin Sumlin ineptitude jokes are still fun.  He cost us millions so I’m going to keep making them.

Play Design/Calling:

My favorite part of the game was the play design and execution at times.  Any good offensive coach will have 5-10 plays a game that give the defense a different look either before snap or post snap.  Sometimes both.  This is the result of watching film and designing plays that look to exploit a matchup or counter reads a defense tends to make.  We haven’t seen that in the past because we’ve had offenses that keep the same design and try to react to the opposing defense.  Defenses tend to figure those out over time.

We did it some against Clemson and continued it against Bama.  My favorite play from a design, call, and execution standpoint was the pitch out to Tray Williams on 3rd down in the middle of the second quarter.  It was 3rd and 3 on the Bama 34.  We gave Bama a look we hadn’t shown before with our receivers stacked on the right side.  Tray was to the left of Mond.  On the snap Mond did a quick pitch to Tray.  Tray had a linebacker on him who he was able to avoid (barely) and got outside for a 16 yard gain to the Bama 18.  Everything about that play was beautiful.  I mean just beautiful from a design, timing, and execution standpoint.  That is not something you would have seen with Aggie offensive coordinators since 2013.

There were some other plays but that was the best example where it’s clear we have an offensive staff that is adjusting and scheming to each week’s opponent.  The best thing you can do as an offense is have the defense worried about plays they’ve never seen.  When a defensive staff has to worry about plays they’ve never seen you have a strong advantage.  I absolutely love the fact it appears Jimbo and the offensive staff really study film and design plays each week that look to take advantage of the defense.  When you become predictable as an offense you get beat.  Through 4 games Jimbo is showing his offense will adapt each week.  It’s so refreshing to see.

Overall:

Despite the issues with our offensive line and lack of a power back I like what I see from this offense.  It’s certainly not as powerful as I would like it to be but I feel the staff is getting the most out of what they can from the talent at their disposal.  This is an offense that appears to be able to put up at least 20 points in every game from here on out.  It’s also designed to chew up time of possession which is a big key for our defense.  We once again won time of possession on Saturday which is a bigger factor than most people think.

Defense:

Front Seven:

I can’t say enough about the defensive line and linebackers.  They weren’t dominant by any stretch but they held their own against a powerful Alabama offense.  Alabama’s running backs got 106 yards on 21 carries.  That’s about 5 yards a carry.  Half of those yards were on 2 carries.  Take away those two runs and that’s a respectable 2.7 yards a carry for the other 19 carries by Bama running backs.  Not many teams in the country can do what the Aggie Front 7 did.  Alabama is going to run the ball and they’re going to rip off long runs against you unless you’re Georgia.  Even with Tua at quarterback Alabama is still going to attempt to establish the run to wear down defenses.  The Aggie defense did all they could against one of the best running teams in the country.  You might not have thought it was a dominant effort by our Front 7 against the run, but it was as good as it gets for a team not named Georgia.

The Front 7 didn’t get any sacks but this defense isn’t really equipped to get sacks.  Especially against Tua.  We have no edge rushers and that’s what you need against a guy like Tua.  What we did was collapse the pocket as much as possible causing Tua to throw before he wanted for the most part.  Tua torched us through the air but it wasn’t because our front 7 wasn’t completely getting to him.  In my mind our Front 7 did everything they could.  Alabama tried to establish the run and really couldn’t but did carve us up where we’re weak.  Kudos to the Aggie Front 7 for holding their own against a powerful Alabama offense.

The Secondary:

The Aggie secondary was terrible on Saturday.  There is NOTHING positive to take from it in my book.  We couldn’t cover and we couldn’t tackle.  Coming into the season I thought our safeties would be serviceable but our corners would really struggle.  So far this season the entire secondary has struggled.

I thought Derrick Tucker and Donavan Wilson would be decent but the reality is they’re not the same player when they’re not playing next to Armani Watts and Justin Evans.  Watts and Evans really helped covered up Tucker and Wilson’s issues.  For you Aggie fans that can remember back to 2011 this is basically like Garrick Williams at linebacker when he lost Cody Hodges.  Williams had all the talent in the world to play linebacker but he was lost without the direction of Hodges.

Time and time again on Saturday the secondary was struggling in coverage and tackling.  While the Front 7 was looking like a legit SEC defense the secondary was looking like a Pop Warner team.  They seemed confused by routes and didn’t like wrapping up on tackles.  They’re not disciplined at all.  They’re short on talent other than Tucker for the most part.

If you’re an offensive coordinator that has watched the Aggie defense through 4 games there’s no doubt you’re going to look to light it up through the air.  There’s no point in trying to establish the run against A&M if Bama and Clemson struggled.  The Aggies should be ready for offenses that want to exploit their secondary.  A somewhat competent head coach and offensive coordinator should realize the Aggies can be passed on.

How to fix it other than to repeatedly work on tackling drills I’m not really sure.  Outside of Leon O’Neal I don’t think you have the talent in the younger guys from a coverage standpoint.  I do think it’s okay to get O’Neal more playing time now.  Sure, he struggled against Bama but he’s a true freshman being thrown to the wolves.  Hopefully his struggles on Saturday drive him to be a contributor in year one.  I don’t think he could do much worse than Tucker and Wilson at this point.  I know Carper (safety) and Chattman (corner) are supposed to be coming back but I don’t think they’re the answers either.  Maybe they can improve on what’s out there now but until the 2019 signing class gets on campus and seasoned our secondary is going to be vulnerable without much hope for improving.

Michael Clemons coming back might help some as he and Durham can team up to provide more pressure in passing situations.  It’s just without true pass rushing pressure from the edge this secondary is going to be prone to big plays.  We simply have a talent issue in the secondary and no Von Miller or Myles Garrett to mask it.

Overall:

It’s amazing how different the Front 7 and secondary can be.  The Front 7 I’d put up against any team in the country.  We’ve now slowed down the running games of Bama and Clemson.  Other than LSU we won’t see a team on the schedule the rest of the way that has a true power running attack like Bama.  The defensive staff has their work cut out for them in trying to improve this secondary so we’ll see how good this staff is.  Even if they started just wrapping up that would be a major improvement as you could basically play bend but don’t break football.  Getting to red zone situations would help as you’ve got less area to cover and your Front 7 has shown they can hold their own against anyone in the country.  We’ve got Arkansas, Kentucky, and South Carolina coming up to find out if we can have some improvement.

Special Teams:

A lot of Aggies were worried about losing Jeff Banks.  As you saw on Saturday unless your name is Frank Beamer the quality of the players matter way more than the special teams coach.  The Aggie special teams were better than Bama’s.  We’re fine without Jeff Banks.  Braden Mann is an absolute weapon.  I mean absolute WEAPON.  He had 5 punts and averaged 60.8 yards.  That is insane.  He’s a junior so he’s been on the roster for two years.  Why he hasn’t been punting until this year I have no idea.  I know Shane Tripucka was pretty good the last two years but what Mann is doing this year is unbelievable.  He’s flipping the field and that’s a huge weapon to have.

Seth Small filled in for the injured Daniel LaCamera and was remarkable going 3 for 3 on field goals.  He hit on a 52 yarder along with a 32 and 25 yarder.  He’s a true freshman so to be perfect in your first game in Tuscaloosa with a 52 yarder being your first attempt bodes well.  I suppose you give LaCamera his job back when he’s healthy but he better be on a short leash if you have a guy that can boot 50+ yards with no fear against Alabama.  Having him as your backup is a serious luxury to have.

There was one minor issue on special teams and it was the return early in the game by Jaylen Waddle.  Whoever was running down didn’t flare out to keep contain on Waddle.  Waddle is a guy we recruited and has absolute jets.  As a special teamer on punt coverage you have to keep contain if you’re alone.  You let a guy like that get around you and he’ll burn you like he did.  We got bailed out by a block in the back but that was a big mistake not keeping contain on a guy with Waddle’s speed.  With Mann booming punts, getting downfield and keeping contain is going to be crucial to limit return yards.

 

Looking Forward:

I think Jimbo can mask our offensive line issues enough to get us to 8 wins.  He’s scored 20 plus points against two great defenses so it seems we’ll be able to move the ball and score points the rest of the way.  I don’t think we’ll have any games where our offense completely goes in the tank like we’ve had in the past.  We have two more really good defenses on the schedule in Auburn and LSU.  They’ll test our offense.  Auburn struggles to run the ball and LSU struggles to pass the ball although LSU has looked better throwing than in years past.  I like to think we can get one win of Auburn and LSU to get us to 9 wins.  I’m not sure which is more likely at this point though.

The key is we’ve got some tough games on the schedule that don’t look like tough games.  Jimbo has to win those.  Kentucky has an all-world running back so it’ll be interesting to see if we can slow him down with our Front 7.  South Carolina hasn’t looked as good as I expected but that’s a road game so it could be a challenge.  Mississippi State was shut down by Kentucky so why can’t the Aggies do the same?  However, if that’s an 11:00 a.m. game in StarkVegas then all bets are off.  The Aggies haven’t won in StarkVegas when we kicked at 11:00 a.m.  Let’s hope for a night game there.

Right now I have to think Arkansas, Ole Miss, and UAB are sure wins.  We’ll find out this weekend when we head to JerryWorld.  That’s been a back and forth contest in the past but I think with our respective new coaching staffs that’s finally a game the Aggies control from start to finish.  I’m hoping for a 35-10 type showing.

It’s entirely possible this team wins out but we’ve got a LOT of work to do to get there.  If we can get through Arkansas, Kentucky, and South Carolina in convincing fashion from start to finish then I’ll feel like we have a real chance.  I’m ready to make some maroon Kool-Aid and start serving it around.  I’ve got the water and jug ready.  I just need Jimbo to give me the powder over the next three weeks so I can start mixing.

#MAFGA

 

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Thoughts on U.L.M. and Alabama

Alabama Texas A&M NCAA Football

I chose not to go to the game last weekend as I had a customer event at noon on Sunday.  Don’t worry, Good Ags sat in my seats.  Had it been a Power 5 school I would have made it in a heartbeat but I took Saturday easy so Sunday was easy as well.  I did watch the game on TV along with a lot of other games.

I won’t do my normal breakdown of offensive and defensive positions because it was ULM and there’s more important things to talk about.  Mainly Bama and some other things about the SEC.

Louisiana Monroe:

Negatives:

I’ll start with the negatives here.  Obviously we got off to a slow start in this game.  That’s kind of to be expected being the third game sandwiched between Clemson and Bama.  Doesn’t make it right but it’s reality.  Kind of seems like we thought we could show up and have our way with ULM but that wasn’t the case.  At least not in the first half.  The team was mostly uninspired and not executing well.

Coming into the season I said our biggest weakness on defense was the secondary.  It really showed in the first half on Saturday night.  In the second quarter they gave up passes of 44, 34, and 36 yards.  This was against ULM.  That’s not good.  The 34 and 36 yarders were back to back which allowed ULM to get a touchdown.  Wilson and Tucker at safety are our most talented and experienced guys but they’re not playing good football.  Our corners struggle to cover for an extended period so if a team can buy time their receivers can likely get open against our cornerbacks.  I’ve said we need to be prepared to give up big pass plays but I didn’t expect that repeatedly against ULM.  It sure happened though.

Our other weakness coming into this season is our offensive line.  They didn’t look good at all in the first half.  Just like Northwestern St. it was pretty clear we wanted to establish the run.  Trayveon had a couple nice runs around 20 yards each but we never got him sprung for anything really long or consistently long.  Seems like he was always running in some kind of traffic.  You would hope our offensive line could blow up some big holes against ULM for him to use his speed and wiggle for some consistent long runs.  Pass blocking was suspect too as Kellen seemed to be a little rushed and took off a few times when I think he would have rather passed.  We also gave up a sack in the first half as well.  It wasn’t a terrible effort by our offensive line but it wasn’t even close to dominating which is what you would have like to have seen.

We had five holding penalties against ULM.  That’s pathetic.  As an offensive line you can control holding penalties.  One or two is allowable but five against ULM is inexcusable.  That’s just lack of focus and preparation.  If it’s pure talent related we’re in bigger trouble than I thought.  We’re not in that big of trouble so I’m just exaggerating but five holding penalties against ULM is damn embarrassing for this offensive line.  Yes, the tight end is an offensive lineman as they go through the same blocking drills the offensive lineman do.  Tight ends know better than to hold.

We still went in with a 24-10 lead at half time but you hope for better considering the opponent.

Positives:

The most positive thing about that game was the effort in the second half.  It was clear the team and staff weren’t happy with a 24-10 lead against a much inferior opponent.  They seemed to come out more focused and executed better in the second half.  The offense stalled on the first possession of the second half but then a quick 3 and out by the defense.  The offense then took the ball 54 yards for a touchdown.  They followed that up with a field goal and then a touchdown before completely giving away to the second stringers for the most part.  A holding penalty caused the offense to likely trade a touchdown for that field goal but most of that drive was impressive with 9 plays covering 61 yards and eating 3:36 of clock.  Penalties will cost you.

The other positive thing was Kellen Mond.  The dude showed this is his team.  He may be in his third game of his second season but he knows he’s a leader.  This is a great sign as everyone will rally behind a quarterback that wants to lead them.  That’s just how football works.  When your quarterback is willing to lead and can back it up with results on the field a team is always better off.  Mond still has some development to do but this guy is completely different from the Mond of last year.  Jimbo has done wonders with this kid.  We all scratched our heads a little when Mond was named the starter prior to the season but three games in it’s clear Jimbo knew what he was doing.

Overall:

I would have certainly liked to have seen a stronger showing to start the game but the effort in the second half makes me feel good.  I have a feeling teams in the past wouldn’t have put their foot down in the second half and let more of the same continue over from the first half.  It would have been easy to blame a Clemson hangover or Alabama look ahead but the coaching staff and players didn’t let it happen.  That’s a good sign overall.

Alabama:

The Aggies are a 27-point underdog to Alabama.  That sounds like a lot of points but if you’ve watched both teams play this season it sounds about right.  This Alabama offense is unlike any Alabama offense you’ve seen under Nick Saban.  The Alabama defense is, well, the Alabama defense.  I have a feeling Alabama is going to exploit our two weaknesses which are our secondary and offensive line.  If we cover 27 points in Tuscaloosa that will be a serious moral victory.  This game could get out of hand in Bama’s favor.  I don’t expect a 59-0 beat down but a 35 to 40 point difference wouldn’t shock me.  If we can’t move the ball and Tua lights up our secondary it won’t take much to see that kind of point differential.  Ask Louisville and Ole Miss.

I do think the Aggies can keep the game close but they’re going to have to go against conventional wisdom.  For whatever reason teams like to play Alabama conservative trying to establish the run and not bringing pressure defensively.  I think the whole mindset of that game plan is to run as much clock as possible on offense and keep the Alabama offense in front of you from a defensive standpoint.  The problem with this is unless you’re LSU you can’t establish the run on offense.  It’s not possible.  On defense if you don’t bring pressure then Alabama will pick you apart on methodical drives with the occasional big play of 40 yards or so.  Next thing you know you look up and you’re down by 21 headed into half.

In order to beat Alabama you have to do two things:

  1. Bring pressure defensively to slow down the run and force them to pass before they want to.
  2. Offensively you have to get the ball to receivers in space with plays they haven’t seen before. You can’t run the ball against them and if you think your read and react Run Pass Options will work against Bama think again.  They can defend the run and RPOs in their sleep.

For number one above this seems scary as hell because if you don’t get to the Bama quarterback he can burn you.  Here’s the deal – you’re not getting to Tua or Hurts with normal pressure.  Their offensive line will handle whatever defense you throw at them.  Tua or Hurts will sit back and wait for a play to develop.  Tua will either burn you with his arm and legs or Hurts will burn you with his legs.  In order to slow down Bama’s offense you better have a big package of blitzes that you’ve never shown before.  Go look at Wade Phillips’ designed blitzes and employ as many of those as you can.  Even if you do it’s likely a long shot as you probably don’t have the athletes to execute them.  You might as well try though.  You need an edge rushing linebacker like Von Miller you can line up all over the line of scrimmage and bring pressure from the outside.  Even a Myles Garrett isn’t a huge help against Bama if you’re going to line him up on a tackle.  I don’t know if the Aggies have a guy that can bring pressure from the outside linebacker position but if do they better be ready to turn him loose.

That must be done to force Bama to throw before they want to.  If not, they’ll eat you alive waiting for something to develop.  The other thing you obviously must do is slow down the run and keep containment with their quarterbacks.  Both Tua and Hurts can run and if they get into space they’ll burn you.  The Aggie defense needs to bring pressure but it has to be containing those guys from getting outside.  It’s a tall order but it’s the only way.  Pressure and contain.  You sit back defensively and you’ll get run over.

Offensively we don’ have the offensive line and running back to establish any kind of running game against Bama.  I love Tray Williams as a running back but he’s not designed to run between the tackles against Bama.  He’s fine being in the game but I would keep him split out and never behind or near Mond.  For Williams to have any kind of effect on the game he’s going to have to get the ball in some kind of space or on well timed screens.  I’m fine giving him the ball between the tackles a few times early on or even later to see what happens but if we run the ball between the tackles with Tray Williams more than 5 times we’ll lose.

My ideal offensive set would be two tight ends and two receivers split evenly about 50% of the time.  Give Bama the same look but have multiple variations of plays where Bama can’t really read who’s likely getting the ball.  Have Tray lined up in multiple spots so he’s the wildcard on what’s going on.  With this set you can run Mond and most importantly get your tight ends involved between blocking and running routes.  It’s amazing what can happen with a good tight end and quarterback that can read how aggressive a defense is playing.  A good chip block and release is an amazing tool that doesn’t get used a lot anymore.  It seems boring but it’s usually effective.  I think the Aggies have a couple tight ends that can execute this.

On occasion you can run bunch formations with the wide receivers and tight ends that can hopefully spring one guy free.  The key is have a few different looks but don’t become predictable based on what you’re doing before you ever snap the ball.  The Bama defense is way too talented and smart.  They know the play you’re running if you’ve run it before.  You must show them something they’ve never seen the entire game.  Trying to run between the tackles or running the same systematic offense will just make Nick Saban smile.  His defense can defend those things in their sleep.

I put the Aggies wining at about 15%.  Mond will have to have the game of his life which is entirely possible but the defense will have to step up which is my major question.  We don’t have the secondary or guys that can apply a lot of pressure so I think Bama keeps rolling.  If we keep them under 50 and score more than 20 that’s going to be a major win for Jimbo.  This team just isn’t ready to compete with Alabama just yet.  Believe it or not losing by less than 27 points will be an encouraging showing.

Rest of the Season/Other Games:

Season Prediction Update:

After watching LSU and Auburn on Saturday I’m leaving my prediction at 8-4.  I think it’s possible we beat one of those teams but they’re both damn good football teams.  They’re still more talented than A&M as a whole team.  I can see us winning one of LSU and Auburn but losing to South Carolina or Mississippi State.  8-4 just still feels right based on what I’ve seen.  Hell, it’s entirely possible we go 6-6 this season due to our issues on the offensive line and secondary.  I don’t think that will happen though.  I think Jimbo will get us to 8-4 which will be solid considering our issues and this schedule.

Speaking of schedules how about that 2019 Aggie Football schedule?  I’ve said all along 2020 would be the Aggies year and seeing that schedule for next season confirms it even more.  Welcome to the SEC West and big boy football.

Auburn/LSU – This was exactly the game these teams have had the last 2 years.  Close game for four quarters and the team that makes the play at the end wins.  Why people expected this game to be different surprised me.  Everybody wants to write these two programs off for some reason.  They both have tremendous talent on defense with sporadic offenses.  When you have a stout defense you’re going to win more than you lose.

A lot of people don’t think highly of Coach O and Malzahn but I think they’re really good coaches.  They’re not elite level coaches but at their current program they’re easily in the Top 25% of coaches in college football if not in the Top 10%.  Outside of Malzahn’s first season where he caught lightening in a bottle with fluke wins over Georgia and Bama along with a questionable win over A&M he’s exactly who he is.  He’s going to win 8-10 games a year and pull off some upsets.  He’s not Nick Saban but who is?  Worst thing he ever did was play for the national title in his first season as head coach and win a national championship as the offensive coordinator.  That’s not really who he is but it doesn’t mean he’s an overrated coach.  Auburn could do much worse than Gus Malzahn.

As for Eddie O he seems to have grown as a head coach since Ole Miss.  He was pretty solid in his interim gig at USC and hasn’t been bad at LSU at all.  Take away the Troy loss last season and he’s been REALLY respectable in his tenure at LSU.  He’s not Nick Saban either but he’s like Les Miles which ain’t bad.  I swear critics blow up one or two losses writing someone off rather than looking at their full body of work.  The full body of work by Malzahn and Eddie O at their current school is not bad at all.  I don’t see that changing anytime soon so expect Top 15 programs that can beat anyone as long as they’re head coach.  They may not win a national title but that list of coaches is short.

OU/ISU – Speaking of underrated coaches, one day Matt Campbell at ISU is going to get a gig at a big-time program.  Every program that has hired a head coach not named Jimbo Fisher since December of 2017 will wonder why they didn’t hire him.  He took a back up quarterback and moved the ball on OU never giving up.  OU has another juggernaut at offense but ISU exposed their passing defense.  ISU might go 7-5 this season but Matt Campbell is a stud head coach.  The dude just knows how to coach football.  As for OU they’ll probably run the table this season.  Odds say they’ll lose a game somewhere but I think they’re a lock for the CFP at this point.  They’re not being talked about from a playoff standpoint right now but their path to the CFP is the easiest of anyone in college football.

Michigan/Notre Dame – Both of these teams won their games but I expected bigger margins based on their opponents and playing at home.  Maybe their game on Week 1 wasn’t the marquee matchup some people thought it was.  I thought Notre Dame was better than how they played Vandy in South Bend.

Bama/Ole Miss – Ole Miss scored on their first offensive possession and then didn’t score again.  Bama then scored 49 points in the first half.  Ole Miss doesn’t have a defense but I’m telling you this Bama offense is unlike anything we’ve seen in the past.  Get ready for Saturday, Ags.

USC/Texas – This game was U.G.L.Y.  It’s amazing USC won the Rose Bowl two years ago and won the Pac 12 last season.  This isn’t even close to the same team.  I know they lost Darnold but that was just one guy.  Make no mistake this is a great win for Texas but I don’t think it’s a measuring stick at all.  There’s a good chance Texas reels off 8 or 9 wins this season but they still have some major talent and coaching issues.  They can certainly improve from here but that game against USC shows there’s still more questions than answers.

OhSU/TCU – TCU is one of the best coached teams in the country but this game shows they don’t have the elite talent to be a consistent major player in college football.  I love Gary Patterson as a coach but until he starts getting 4 and 5 star talent on campus TCU will be a second tier program at best.  Without some major luck I don’t see Gary Patterson ever playing for or winning a national championship.  He’ll beat a lot of teams in his time at TCU but I don’t think TCU is a nationally elite program.  At some point you have to have the big horses.

As for OhSU they’re now in the same boat as OU.  Their path to the CFP seems clear as well.  Based on the way the B10 looks all they must do is get by Penn State and they’ll roll into the CFP.  They’ll trip up a game but they’ll be 12-1 with a Big 10 Conference Championship I have a feeling.  They’re a good football team in a down conference.  Now they get their memory challenged head coach back which made me throw up in my mouth.

If I had to predict the CFP based on what games I’ve seen and paths to get there I’m predicting Bama, Clemson, OU, and OhSU all with 12-1 records and conference titles.  The CFP will have an easy choice as that Auburn win over Washington in Week 1 will keep them out of the playoff discussion.

I’ll even go so far as to pick each team’s one loss:

Clemson – South Carolina
Alabama – LSU
Oklahoma – West Virginia (which they’ll then turn around and beat them in the title game to win the conference)
OhSU – Maryland

Same old teams as always which is boring but it’s all about coaching in college football.  You either have a great coach or you don’t.

#MAFGA

 

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Thoughts From The Clemson Game

NCAAF 2018 Texas A&M vs Clemson Sept 8

It’s kind of hard to define what happened at Kyle Field on Saturday night.  It certainly wasn’t a win on the scoreboard and it really didn’t feel like a moral victory either.  Sure, the Aggies never quit but the fact of the matter is they ran out of time 2 points shy of Clemson.  It was a loss.  For me, the definition of what happened was validation.  Validation this era of Aggie football is going to be different.  Validation the Aggies finally got the right coach and staff.  Validation we have a team that will learn how to win big.  Validation that Kyle Field is one of the best venues for college football anywhere in the world.  Validation we’re on our way to Make Aggie Football Great Again.

Coming into this season I wasn’t too worried about wins and losses.  If Jimbo gets us to at least 8 wins the long-term plan would be on track.  I don’t want the fool’s gold of 2012 where we had an amazing season but that was just it.  One season.  Nothing more.  I want Jimbo’s first year to be about a different look for Aggie football.  What we saw on Saturday sure makes it look like things will be different this time.  I saw a team that never quit but most importantly I saw a coaching staff that schemed to have a chance to beat a more talented team.  That Clemson team on Saturday night was more talented than A&M which is the difference for why Clemson won.  Coaching and execution had the Aggie team looking for a two-point conversion at the end of the game to send it overtime.  The Aggies fell short but there’s a LOT of positives to take away from this game.

For the first time since Alabama in 2013 something happened at Kyle Field.  The stadium fed off the team.  No doubt there were plenty of moments where the team fed off the fans, but this Aggie team didn’t quit.  If they didn’t believe in themselves Kyle Field would have been deflated.  The 64-yard touchdown pass to go up 14-3 had a lot of Aggie fans wondering if it was more of the same from the last 4 years.  Even worse was when the Aggies went down 21-6 late in the third quarter.  You could feel the excitement escaping from Kyle Field like we’d felt so many times in recent memory.  The excitement didn’t escape though.  The Aggie team fought back and Kyle Field roared back to life.  Man did it roar back to life.  For the final quarter of football the team and the stadium were willing each other to a win.  The 12th Man had been waiting on this moment.  The team was leading the way back and the 12th Man was ready to follow.

Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.  I don’t see any reason why it’s not.  That was a team that learned to fight and most importantly learned it can compete with the best college football has to offer.  Maybe it’s a blip but this feels different.  This was coaching and playing.  This was a staff devising plays against a great team and players executing believing they’d come back.  No quit.  Just a clock that ran out of time.

Before I get to the breakdowns of units and players I can’t say enough about what Jimbo and the staff did on Saturday night.  They took a less talented team and went to the final second against the #2 team in the country.  Maybe Clemson isn’t the second-best team in the country but there’s no doubt they’re a Top 5 team.  That’s the best college football has to offer.  Defensively we held our own for most of the game other than a few big plays.  Offensively the play design and execution was something I hadn’t seen since 2012.  Our offensive staff had a very good idea of what Clemson was capable of and schemed against them.  What happened in the second half wasn’t luck.  It was awareness and preparation.  It was confidence too.  Coaches leading players and players following because they believed.  It sure feels like validation Aggie Football finally got it right when it came to hiring a coach.

Offense:

Kellen Mond:

This was no doubt a team effort but Kellen Mond deserves MAJOR props for what he did on Saturday night.  At the end of last year I wondered if Mond would ever see another snap at Texas A&M.  He seemed destined to transfer like some other Aggie quarterbacks that lost their job.  Turns out we all forgot Kellen was a highly recruited 4 star quarterback and coaching really matters.  If you don’t believe me ask Kahlil Tate in Arizona how his Heisman chances are looking after his first two games.  Ask Deondre Francois at Florida State if he misses Jimbo.

I never expected Mond to have the game he did.  Statistically he was 23/40 for 430 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.  That’s a damn fine game considering he’s a true sophomore still getting his feel in a new system.  What impressed me most was not anything that shows up in the statistics.  What impressed me most was his awareness and confidence.  I’ll get to the receivers and line in a little bit as they deserve major props as well but Kellen Mond made some damn big throws in that game.  Anyone that says his receivers bailed him out didn’t really watch that game.  Mond let the ball fly and gave his receivers a chance to make big plays.  Don’t underestimate Mond’s willingness to let the ball go and throw passes in a game like that.

Mond has the ability to run but unlike some quarterbacks with the ability to run Mond did it as a last resort.  He used his legs to avoid pressure and buy time but he kept his eyes down the field looking to make a pass.  A lot of young guys would have tucked the ball and ran for what they could get against that Clemson defense.  Not Mond.  He hung behind the line of scrimmage for as long as he could hoping something would develop downfield and when he saw it he let the ball go.

The most impressive play of the game and defines what I’m talking about was the pass to Quartney Davis to make it a 28-20 game.  Clemson brought a linebacker blitz from the outside.  Kellen IMMEDIATELY notices it and prepares for it.  He times his spin out to the left perfectly to avoid the pressure but is still running for his life.  They key here is he never drops his hands below his waist and is looking to get his shoulders square to the line of scrimmage.  He’s running for his life but he’s still looking to make a throw.  He had a lot of green in front of him.  The easy play would have been to get the 5-15 yards by tucking the ball.  He was looking to make a play with his arm rather than his legs though.  He doesn’t have the speed of Johnny or Kyler Murray but he did have the athleticism and most importantly the awareness to make a BIG play.

Here’s the play.  Watch this thing over and over if you want.  Start and stop it during the play to process everything.  He picks up the blitz right away.  He waits to bail.  He spins at the right depth away from the defender.  He’s looking downfield.  His hands never drop below his waist and always has both hands on the ball.  He’s squaring his shoulders.  He sees Davis going back to an open spot.  He releases the ball right when he’s getting hit.  As Dave South once eloquently said, “He got a touchdown.”  That was a well-coached and confident quarterback that knew his limitations.  That wasn’t all luck.  I guarantee you Jimbo ran that play back and forth 10 times on Sunday in film telling Kellen what a great play it was.  And it was great.

I couldn’t get the video to embed at the right spot but fast forward to about the 2:02 mark and watch the play.  You can also click the link below it which will take you right to the play.  Sorry my Internetting is lacking where I can’t get the YouTubes and WordPress to sync up right.  You get what you pay for.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=napBx4gMovI&feature=youtu.be&t=122

It was a total team effort but Kellen deserves major props.  This is his team and he owned it on Saturday night.  I’m sure there will be some hiccups along the way but this isn’t last year’s Kellen Mond at all.  This is a well-coached quarterback with some great natural talent.  If you want to know why Kellen Mond won the quarterback battle go back and watch that play again.  The perfect combination of awareness, poise, and athleticism.

Wide Receivers:

Um, Kendrick Rogers, where have you been?  Right behind the effort of Kellen Mond is no doubt Kendrick Rogers.  I NEVER expected to see the production we saw out of that guy on Saturday night.  He caught 7 balls just outjumping Clemson defenders.  His two touchdown catches were beautiful with athleticism and concentration.  I had no idea he had that ability but I sure hope this is more than a one game deal from him.  He has the size and athleticism so there’s no reason to think there’s not more there from him.  7 catches for 120 yards and two pretty damn amazing touchdown catches sure doesn’t seem like a fluke.  Next to Mond he’s no doubt the offensive MVP.

Outside of Rogers the rest of the receiving corps was solid.  Buckley, Ausbon, Sternberger, Trayveon, and Davis all had key catches at time.  That was really the difference in the game as Clemson couldn’t shut down the whole receiving corps.  Mond made Clemson pay by finding and hitting the open guys.  The receivers did their job but catching the ball and getting yards after reception.

Through 2 games this receiving corps looks completely different than last year.  They seem more aware and ready for the ball looking to make a play.  Last week they were blocking really well in the ground game and this week they were going after balls.  This doesn’t seem like a receiving corps that’s waiting on the play or ball to find them like last season.  They want to go make the play.  This only helps Mond when he knows if he puts the ball up his guys are going to fight for it.  It’s only one game but this receiving corps looks MUCH deeper than I ever imagined.  And what’s crazy is we have some true freshman on the bench that likely won’t see the field based on what we saw Saturday night.  I’m totally okay with that.

Offensive Line:

I have to put them at third on this list but the offensive line was tremendous on Saturday night all things considered.  We really couldn’t establish the ground game for the most part.  We only gained 57 yards on the ground other than Mond’s runs.  I’m really surprised by this as I expected our ground attack to do better than our pass blocking.  That wasn’t the case but the offensive line did a fine job for what was there.

Kellen didn’t have a ton of time to throw but thanks to the offensive line he had enough time to throw all night for the most part.  Coaching also helped here as Jimbo and Dickey started moving Kellen around as well as started using Trayveon Williams out of the backfield.  The few times we ran screens they were well timed and well executed.  Mond was sacked three times but that was all in the first half I think.  They adjusted in the second half nicely giving Mond enough time to throw the ball.  Great job by the coaches and offensive line.

Probably the biggest compliment to pay this offensive line is you completely forgot they were playing the best defensive line in college football.  They still have some room to develop since we got stuffed on short yardage situations a couple of times.  I’m not complaining though as last year’s line would have been embarrassed.  This unit is still growing but they held their own against the best defensive line in college football for most of the night.

Running Game:

It seemed pretty clear Clemson’s goal coming into this game was to shut down the run.  That’s what they did with their defensive line.  Trayveon only averaged 1.8 yards per rush.  He’s not built for this type of defensive line because he needs to get to the second level to use his speed and wiggle.  This isn’t on Trayveon because the matchup never really favored us here.  Our offensive line couldn’t get him to the second level.  Great job by Jimbo and Staff recognizing it wasn’t there for the most part and adapting.  The Aggies never truly went away from the run so Clemson always had to think about it, but it was clear we weren’t running our way to yards and scores against that line.  They’re just too good.

Tray Williams is a great back but we did miss having someone like a Keith Ford or Tra Carson that could pound the ball a little more between the tackles.  It likely wouldn’t have made too much of a difference but we do miss that threat.  Just not much you can do against a defensive line where all four of their guys will be drafted in the first two rounds.  Just admit your deficiencies and try something else which Jimbo did and it worked for the most part.

Defense:

Defensive Line:

I thought the defensive line played really well.  147 yards on the ground isn’t ideal but Clemson has a very mobile quarterback.  That makes it hard to key in on the running back.  We didn’t give up any long touchdown runs.  We kept Travis Etienne corralled for the most part other than one 28-yard scamper.  He’s a very underrated back as if he gets to the second level he can flat out burn you.  Elko did a good job moving people in and out.  Kingsley Keke had his usual good game along with Landis Durham.  It didn’t show up on the stat sheet but Daylon Mack had a couple plays where he was completely disruptive blowing the center and guard off their blocks.  I don’t know if it’s scheme or want but it’s amazing how Mack can be so dominating at times and then get blocked other times.  I’m sure it’s a little of both.  Justin Madubuike really showed up in this game bringing pressure all game long.  He spent a lot of time in the backfield getting a sack and a quarterback hurry.  He’s only a sophomore but he seems like he keeps developing better and better every game.  Our defensive line isn’t as good Clemson’s defensive line but there’s no doubt this is a solid unit.  They just show up every game and do their job.

Linebacker:

Thanks to our defensive line Dodson and Alaka were freed up to make plays.  That’s the way it’s supposed to be.  Not sure what else what to write here as these guys did their job plain and simple.  Dodson is probably the most underrated linebacker in the SEC and maybe even the country.  He led the team in solo tackles and even had a nice pass break up on the wide receiver reverse pass to their quarterback.  Was hoping he would come down with it but it was pretty good awareness.  He knocked the ball away so there was no chance of a completion.  Saw Anthony Hines in there a couple of times late in the game but don’t recall him doing much.  We still need to add some depth here but Dodson and Alaka just show up every week and clean up what the defensive line doesn’t take care of.  I’m totally okay with that as that’s how the front 7 is supposed to work.

Seems Donovan Wilson is kind of our third linebacker as Elko technically runs a 4-2-5.  This makes the third linebacker and safety situational.  Wilson fits in with Dodson and Alaka.  He may not seem all that dominant, but Wilson is as dependable as they get.  Whatever comes their way Dodson, Alaka, and Wilson are going to handle.  We could be MUCH worse than these three guys manning the middle of the play.

Secondary:

Coming into the season the position that concerned me the most beyond the offensive line was our cornerbacks.  I don’t think we have amazing talent at corner.  Certainly not upper level college football talent.  That showed up on Saturday night as we gave up two long 64 yard passes with one being for a touchdown.  We also gave up another 50 yard pass which set up a touchdown.  That’s 178 yards through the air on three plays which is over half their passing offense.  That’s too much.  I get giving up a big play here and there but our cornerback coverage is definitely the weakest part of our defense by far.  Clemson knew it and attacked it on several occasions.

I feel good about our chances against the run but if we’re going up against an offense that has strong deep threats and a quarterback that can get it to them we’re going t be susceptible to the deep ball.  We just don’t have the talent at corner to compete with great deep threats.  Along with depth at linebacker we must get more talented corners on campus and get them up to speed.  This won’t be the last time you see an opponent get a long touchdown against us.  It’s our Achilles heel and it’ll continue to get tested until we prove we can slow it down.

Safety wise the guys not named Donavan Wilson did okay.  I like Derrick Tucker’s long-term potential but he still makes some goofs from time to time.  Deshawn Capers-Smith doesn’t have Tucker’s talent but he doesn’t make the mistakes Tucker does.  We’ve got a lot of young talent at the safety position so we’ll be fine long term, but this really feels like a transition year from having Evans, Watts, and Wilson roaming the secondary like we’ve had the last few years.

 

Overall:

Clemson was 4 of 13 on third down conversions and failed on their only 4th down attempt.  They also held the ball for only 26 minutes.  Those two stats are all because of our front 7 doing what they do.  All in all this defense is starting to remind me of the 2012 unit but with a worse secondary.  It’s a really good unit with the front 7.  Much better than most people realize.  So far Elko looks to be an upgrade over Chavis as the front 7 is more fundamentally sound.  It doesn’t seem as prone to the goofs the Chavis defense would have at times and especially late in games.  We’re just going to give up big pass plays from time to time so get used to that.  At least against the teams that have fast receivers and quarterbacks with big enough arms.

Special Teams:

Obviously we know about LaCamera with his miss and block.  Obviously that makes Clemson feel like 2012 Florida and LSU.  Not sure it’ll come to that where we’re looking back at a missed field goal away from a potential national championship but I’m fine if so.  That will be a much better season than most expected.  He still hit two 40 yarders so he’s not terrible.  Kickers are going to miss so you’re better off being in a position where you don’t rely on them.  Even Alabama had a kicker a while back that routinely missed field goals which drove Saban wild.

No doubt the special teamer of the game was Braden Mann.  I can’t recall seeing a punter just driving a ball with no trajectory like he was.  He was knocking it low and deep all night.  I don’t know if he was doing it by design but it was working perfectly.  The way he was hitting it wouldn’t allow the return guy to set up underneath it so he was having to chase it like a center fielder on a deep line drive.  Clemson only had 9 yards of punt returns so whatever it was needs to keep happening.  Anytime you have a punter averaging 55 yards a punt and hits a 73 yarder with 9 return yards you’re doing something right.  Mann was tremendous.

On returns we didn’t really have anything spectacular but I thought Roshauud Paul did a nice job of knowing when to fair catch and return.  He had two returns off 14 and 11 yards which isn’t that long but shows he appears to have pretty good awareness.  Last thing you want on a punt return is to try and make a return when nothing is there.  That’s how fumbles happen.  If you don’t feel there’s anything to be gained get your arm up and call for the fair catch.  Make the catch and move on down the road.  Fumbled punts can really turn the momentum.  I like Paul’s apparent awareness in fielding punts.

 

Going Forward:

It’s hard not to like what happened at Kyle Field on Saturday night even though the Aggies are now 1-1 on the season.  Alabama is in two weeks and that’s the biggest test of the season.  Based on what I’ve seen this season Alabama is a better football team than Clemson.  The Aggies have to get through Louisiana Monroe this weekend but I don’t see that being an issue.  At least I hope not.

Right now I’m leaving my season prediction at 8-4.  The SEC West is still looking strong with Mississippi State being better than I originally thought.  South Carolina might be a little worse but that Georgia game could be a wake up call for them.  Arkansas looks like an easier game and Ole Miss apparently has all offense and no defense.  LSU is still so far away it’s hard to predict that one.  Kentucky doesn’t look like the easy win either after they beat Florida in Gainesville.  Still a lot of football to be played only 2 games in.  I want to make sure that Clemson game wasn’t a blip before I chug all of my maroon Kool-Aid.  What I had on Saturday night sure tasted good though.

I will say after Saturday night this team might be closer to the 2012 team than I originally thought.  That team that played at Kyle Field can beat anybody left on their schedule not named Alabama.  I think there’s at least one more loss in there but I feel much better about Auburn and LSU right now than I did coming into the season.  Let’s see what we look like against Alabama and then we can figure out what could happen the rest of the way.  I said a realistic dream season was going 9-3 winning the bowl game finishing at 10-3.  That seems really possible right now.

If we play the rest of the season like we played Clemson there’s no doubt we’ll Make Aggie Football Great Again well ahead of schedule.

#MAFGA

 

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Expectations for Jimbo Fisher

Jimbo Spring Practice

With Spring Practice hitting its full stride it’s time to talk a little football.  I take Spring Practice reports with a grain of salt.  Everything I’ve read is pretty much what I’ve expected.  Jimbo Fisher actually coaches football and coaches more than anyone on his staff.  Anyone that’s paid attention to Fisher in the past knows this.  He doesn’t stand around clapping and offering encouragement with hollow words.  Fisher gets in player’s faces offering ways to improve as a player.  Jimbo Fisher is an actual football coach that understands the game and works directly with his players.

Some people say Jimbo is not a “CEO Coach” like Sumlin.  Actually, he is a “CEO Coach.”  He just happens to be the type of CEO that happily goes on sales calls looking to close more deals, meets regularly with the R&D team to see what’s being worked on digging into any issues with the team, understands the current HR issues to see how he can improve things, and a host of other activities related to his organization.  He’s more interested than just earnings calls and going to conferences to talk on panels.  CEO’s can get involved in the details and Jimbo is one of them.  One coach loves to coach football along with handling everything else a head coach must do.  The previous coach just liked to be the figurehead of a major organization hoping his assistants and players figure it out while he claps and says words.  So yeah, things are different.  It shouldn’t surprise anyone that’s been paying attention.

I won’t take much stock in practice reports until bullets start flying in September.  Starkel will likely remain as the starting QB throughout the Spring, Summer, and Fall.  It’s his position to lose although I’m sure Mond and Blumrik will get a chance to unseat him.  There’s no Johnny Manziel on this team so get that out of your mind.  Our offensive line continues to be a major work in progress lacking overall talent and depth.  We’re converting from a spread offense to a more traditional pro-style offense.  That presents a challenge we won’t know the reality until live action.  Defensively we have starting talent but are still lacking overall depth.  You just hope that Jimbo’s overall ability to actually be a coach is an improvement from the last coach.

From this point forward Jimbo must win and recruit in consecutive steps.  This is what doomed the last four coaching regimes.  You must continually both win on the field and in recruiting.  R.C. stopped wining and his recruiting fell off which only made winning harder.  Fran had the Cotton Bowl his second season and some decent recruiting classes with star talent but he could never do it consecutively.  Same thing with Sherman.  He had the 9-4 season but then went 6-6 blowing multiple first half leads.  Sumlin had the 2012 season but then went 9-4 and never improved from there where his recruiting also fell off.

You can recruit all you want but if you don’t win your recruiting will fall off.  The best recruiting tool is to win and continually win.  The top recruits want to play for winners because winning on the field is all that matters.  Jimbo was brought here to win football games on the field and nothing else.  The belief is A&M just made a $75 million investment for a national championship.  Anything less than that will be a disappointment.  Winning a national championship is EXTREMELY difficult with the new playoff system but that’s what Jimbo was brought here to do.

Ideally Jimbo wins a championship in his first five years at A&M but that seems difficult considering the state of the program.  I’ve come up with what I think are eight achievable steps based on the current state of A&M football, his pedigree, and the potential for the football program at Texas A&M.  He can certainly improve on any of these steps and I hope he does but at minimum I think he needs to do the following 8 things to put Texas A&M in contention for the national championship over the next 10 years.  To me these are reasonable steps and can be exceeded for a coach like Jimbo Fisher.

 

Step 1 – Close 2018 Recruiting Class:

This is done and Jimbo did a fine job.  The class only ranked #17 nationally but the way Jimbo closed it was solid.  The recruiting momentum was dead upon Sumlin’s departure.  Not because Sumlin left but because there was just nothing to sell at Texas A&M.  I’m convinced Leon O’Neal would have left A&M for good had it not been for Jimbo Fisher.  Most people don’t realize it but Bobby Bowden’s last 4 years included Top 10 classes in 3 of those and the other was still Top 20.  Florida State was struggling on the field but Bowden was still recruiting talent.  Jimbo just had to keep it going at Florida State.  At A&M he’s having to build it but he got off to a good solid start.  Now he must win on the field to keep it going.

Step 2 – 8 regular season wins in 2018 Season:

I believe 8 regular season wins is the minimum for 2018.  The West will take a step back in 2018 due to coaching changes except for Arkansas who should improve but we still have enough to beat them.  The only acceptable losses I see for 2018 are Clemson, Bama, Auburn, and LSU.  Clemson, Auburn, and LSU are all winnable games but I’m not sure we have the talent on the offensive line, at QB, and depth on defense to win those games.  Don’t forget we’re going from a spread team to a pro-style offense so there’s going to be an adjustment.  Even with that adjustment we must win 8 games.  The learning curve isn’t that big and there’s enough talent to beat everyone else on our schedule.  We get Kentucky at home from the East so the schedule is setup well.

The ideal realistic scenario is we beat LSU and win our bowl game winding up at 10-3 with a TON of momentum going into the off season.  I’m all for doing better than that but if Jimbo pulls off 10-3 winning our last two games against LSU and the bowl game he’s going to have A&M sitting pretty.  At minimum though he must go 8-4 and ideally win a bowl game putting us at 9-4.

Step 3 – Top 10 Recruiting Class in 2019:

It’s early but Jimbo currently has a Top 10 recruiting class.  Lots of things can change but if Jimbo keeps doing what he’s doing and wins on the field he should have a Top 10 recruiting class for 2019.  Most importantly though he must sign kids he can develop.  I think he will based on how he’s been recruiting so far.  He looks for football guys and not just numbers guys that look the part.

Step 4 – 10 regular season wins in 2019 Season:

10 regular season wins likely puts us second in the SEC West which should be the main goal for 2019.  I’ll give Jimbo a little rope here just in case Stidham stays at Auburn for his final year or Eddie O pulls off something amazing in Baton Rouge.  I don’t think either of those things happens so 10 wins puts us behind Alabama in the SEC West which would be perfect for Jimbo’s second year.  We go to Clemson so that’s a wildcard right now but either way 10 regular season wins should be the minimum goal here building on the 2018 season.

Step 5 – Top 6 Recruiting Class in 2020:

At some point just being in the Top 10 won’t be good enough.  To win a national championship you must recruit at the highest level.  Jimbo needs to be knocking on the Top 5 at this point.  Even better if he’s there.

Step 6 – Second in the SEC West in 2020:

Ideally we’re already second in the SEC West in 2019 and focused on winning the SEC West in 2020.  If not, the 2020 season needs to be about being the clear second-best team in the SEC West.  Nick Saban could be gone by 2020 making wining the SEC West easier but I’m not going to assume that.  Saban will outlive us all and still be coaching Bama at 120 years of age.  Seriously.  Until he’s gone from the game I’m assuming nothing because he’s the king of college football.  To think otherwise is foolish.  If Saban is in Alabama you’re chasing second place.

Step 7 – Top 5 Recruiting Class in 2021:

Jimbo continues to build an elite recruiting school.  Coaches can say all they want about getting “our guys” in a recruiting class but if you’re not consistently getting a Top 10 class you won’t win a national championship.  “Our guys” means you’re picking from the second tier of athletes and not the true elite.  The higher the ranking the better as it’s about being elite.  It’s easier to coach when you have talent.  That’s the difference between Nick Saban and Bill Snyder.  Jimbo needs to be Top 5 at this point.

Step 8 – Win the SEC West in 2021:

Ideally we’re repeating as SEC West champions and poised for a national title run here.  If Saban is still at Bama Jimbo needs to beat him for the SEC West in his fourth season.  A&M isn’t chasing anyone else but a Saban lead Bama team at this point.  Ideally Saban is gone and Jimbo has replaced him as the class of the SEC West.  If that happens we’ll be on track to maintaining a status of an elite national football program.  Once that happens every year will bring about a chance for a national championship.  That’s what we’re paying Jimbo $75 million to do.  It could take 4 seasons to get there and that’s okay.  We just need to get there.

 

I have no clue if Jimbo gets there.  Anybody that pretends they know is being a fool.  Based on his pedigree and short time at A&M all of that looks VERY attainable.  He wasn’t brought here to build ever so slightly on what R.C., Fran, Sherman, and Sumlin left.  He was brought here to elevate A&M to a level we haven’t seen since the early 90s.  Actually even better as we never really sniffed a national title from 85-95 which were the prime years of Aggie football.  I hope he does better than those 8 steps above.  I think it’s very possible but at minimum those are the steps I’d like to see over the next four years.

Let’s hope Jimbo Makes Aggie Football Great Again.

#MAFGA

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