Before I get going on this “analysis” I must fully disclose I’m a Max Johnson fan.  I remember watching him at Kyle Field in 2020 and thinking LSU had a chance to beat us if he started that game.  Thank goodness Coach O couldn’t figure that out.  Part of that was TJ Finley looked so bad but I thought Max Johnson had some quarterbacking chops about him.  We obviously saw what Max Johnson did to us in 2022.  I think the kid can quarterback.

I don’t know what’s going to happen at quarterback for the 2022 Aggies.  I don’t think Jimbo Fisher knows either.  He’s got too many unknowns to pin down how quarterback is going to play out for the 2022 Aggies.  Haynes King doesn’t have enough snaps.  Max Johnson doesn’t have enough snaps in Jimbo’s system.  Conner Weigman doesn’t have any snaps in any college.  Lots of unknowns and variables.

In addition, Jimbo isn’t sure how strong his offensive line is going to be.  He doesn’t know what capabilities his receiving corps has.  He also doesn’t know his full running back situation.  Lots of unknowns on the offense outside of just who’s taking the snaps.

I think it’s only between Haynes King and Max Johnson for the 2022 starter.  I know Conner Weigman is the next coming of Johnny Football.  I get that.  However, even Johnny Football didn’t start his true freshman year in Aggieland.  I know the promise of a backup quarterback is always the most exciting thing for a college football fan.  That means hope springs eternal with Weigman.

For 2022 I don’t necessarily want Conner Weigman taking snaps.  Sure, Trevor Lawrence won Clemson a title as a true freshman but I don’t think that’s what we’re looking at for the 2022 Aggies.  That Clemson team was much different than this Aggie team.  If Conner Weigman beats out of both King and Johnson then so be it.  I don’t have a problem with that. I just don’t think you can make any analysis where Weigman gets significant playing time in 2022. 

We’ve been hearing about Haynes King for 2 seasons.  The problem is we don’t have a body of work to truly know what he can or can’t do.  We know he’s extremely fast.  Devon Achane says he might be the second fastest guy on offense which is quite a statement.  Achane knows speed.

King is the son of a coach and won a state title in high school.  He looks the part and talks the part.  He just hasn’t played the part.  Not saying he can’t.  I think he can but we just haven’t seen it yet. 

Max Johnson is the son of an NFL quarterback.  He’s 6’5”/220.  He’s left-handed which is rare from a success standpoint but he’s the prototypical quarterback from a physical standpoint.  If he’s right-handed people are drooling over him.  He can throw the ball and is much more mobile than people realize.  He’s taken a lot of snaps in football games so we have a body of work we can get some information from.

Max Johnson’s biggest problem is he played 2 seasons for a crappy LSU football team.  Those 2 seasons were so crappy it got a coach fired who had won a national title less than 2 seasons before he got fired.  That’s crappy.  Max Johnson didn’t have a lot to work with.  LSU was tied for 111^th in the country last year in sacks allowed.  They averaged 3 sacks a game so Johnson didn’t have much time to throw for the most part.  I don’t know what Max Johnson looks like with a better team but a quarterback is often the product of their surroundings.  You need time and targets.

There’s not a lot of disappointment from LSU fans that Max Johnson left.  They feel he didn’t do enough to win more games as the LSU quarterback.  Like I said, most college football fans always believe the backup quarterback is always the better quarterback.  Maybe Max Johnson is the LSU equivalent of Zach Calzada.  I don’t see that.  I think Johnson is everything Calzada was physically but with a much higher football IQ.

I also know getting Max Johnson also helped get his younger brother Jake Johnson.  He’s a five star tight end.  No doubt it helped but I don’t think that’s the only reason Max Johnson came to Aggieland.

Here’s What We Know From Games:

• Haynes King has started 2 football games.  None of them in the SEC and only played one full game.
• Haynes King’s one full game was against Kent State where he was a 64% passer with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
• Max Johnson has started 14 games with 10 of those being SEC games.  He’s played in 3 other SEC games.
• Max Johnson is a 60% career passer at LSU.  He’s 58% in the SEC.  57% in SEC starts.
• Max Johnson has thrown 35 career touchdowns and 7 interceptions.  That’s an outstanding 5 to 1 ratio.  In career SEC games he’s thrown 22 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.  In SEC starts it’s 20 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.  That’s still an outstanding 4 to 1 ratio.
• Max Johnson has played significant snaps in these stadiums – Auburn, Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Alabama.

What Else Do We Know:

• For whatever reason Jimbo has never felt comfortable naming Haynes King the definitive starter.  After the loss of Kellen Mond, it was clear the next starting quarterback would be Haynes King or Zach Calzada.  It always seemed like Haynes King was the front runner, but Jimbo would never definitively say it.  After watching Calzada last season it’s a little concerning to me Jimbo never named Haynes King the definitive starter much sooner in the process.
• Jimbo convinced Max Johnson to come to A&M.  This has lots of variables because Johnson didn’t know his future at LSU with the coaching change.  However, Jimbo likely convinced Max Johnson he has a legit chance to start at Texas A&M in 2022.  Johnson didn’t announce his transfer intentions until after Brian Kelly was hired.  Myles Brennan was already in the Transfer Portal.  Brennan was LSU’s other quarterback so Johnson’s competition was leaving.  Brennan decided to stay once Johnson left and Brian Kelly got there but before Johnson left it looked like Max Johnson would be the incumbent quarterback at LSU for Brian Kelly.  Max Johnson didn’t care.  He decided to transfer.  Max Johnson didn’t come to A&M to back up Haynes King.  He believed he could win the starting job.  Max Johnson may wind up never taking significant snaps at A&M but Jimbo convinced him he had a legit chance to take significant snaps at A&M.  Does that mean Jimbo doesn’t have full confidence in King?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  I think it means Jimbo wants as much quarterback talent on his roster as he can get. Max Johnson is confident he can win the keys to the Aggie offense.
• Coming out of Spring 2022 there’s still not a clear leader at quarterback.  Haynes King clearly has the most time in Jimbo’s system and took the first team snaps in the Spring.  However, Jimbo talks as if it’s an open competition.  I think he’s saying that because there’s no definitive leader.

What Does Jimbo Want To Do in 2022?:

There’s a bigger variable in all of this besides each quarterback’s ability.  I believe King and Johnson are different quarterbacks.  I believe King to be a decent passer with excellent speed.  Not sure how elusive King is as a runner but he has raw speed.  That brings a different element for attacking a defense.  A running quarterback can do real damage to a defense.  I think King can run every bit as good as Kellen Mond and likely much better.  We saw how Jimbo liked to use Mond’s legs to keep defenses honest.  Jimbo already has a blueprint of what he can do with a guy like King.

I believe Johnson to be a superior passer with better mobility than most people realize.  Johnson can make throws.  He did it against A&M in the 2021 game.  That last touchdown pass that beat us was as good as it gets.  That was the second great touchdown throw he had it in that game.  Couple that with the fact Michael Clemons was hammering on Johnson the whole game and that pass looks all that more impressive.  Johnson didn’t back down.

Does Jimbo believe he finally has the receivers to attack a defense downfield?  Does he have faith in Ainias Smith, Evan Stewart, and Moose Muhammed to repeatedly get open?  Does he think he has a deep threat?  Does he trust his offensive line to give his quarterback time to throw?

If the answer to those questions is “Yes” then I think Max Johnson wins the job.  He’s simply the better passer.  If the answer is “No” then I think Haynes King wins the job.  Jimbo will hopefully turn King into an improved 2020 version of Kellen Mond.  That’s not a bad thing, people.  2020 Kellen Mond lost one game all season to Alabama.  I think 2022 King will be better than 2020 Mond if that’s the route that Jimbo goes with.

I think we’re going to be fine at quarterback in 2022 but these two quarterbacks are different style players.  A lot is going to depend on what kind of offense Jimbo thinks he can and wants to run.

What To Watch For:

Jimbo has a saying – “Your actions speak so loud I can’t hear what you’re saying.”  That goes for how he handles playing time with his quarterbacks.

Zach Calzada played in zero games in 2020.  Haynes King took the backup snaps in 2020.  Zach Calzada didn’t get any significant snaps in the first game of 2021.  King was always well ahead of Calzada in the quarterback hierarchy the past two seasons.  JImbo said there was a close competition but his actions clearly indicated King was his quarterback all along.  Calzada’s play in 2021 showed us why.

In game snaps mean everything to Jimbo when it comes to quarterback snaps.

I do believe at this point Jimbo is giving King the job to lose.  He’s also telling Johnson he can win the starting job but his room for error is small.  Johnson must be perfect to take the job.  King knows the system and is a solid quarterback.  I don’t think either guy is going to let the other guy win it during the off season.  It’ll be decided on the field early in 2022.

The first two games of 2022 will give us a good indication of where things stand.  This is assuming Jimbo doesn’t declare a definitive starter at some point over the summer.  I don’t think he will as he’s not going to truly know what he has until there’s some game action against a non-Aggie opponent.  Even if it is Sam Houston and Appalachian State.

I expect Haynes King to start each of these games.  The big indicator will be when Johnson gets his snaps.  If Johnson gets snaps in the first half of those two games then he’s neck and neck with King.  If he doesn’t get snaps until the second half when the game has been decided then King is clearly the starter.  The timing of snaps for Johnson will tell us what’s going on in Jimbo’s head.

If Max Johnson takes the first snaps of the first game then he’s the definitive starter for 2022.  Jimbo will believe he’s the guy going forward and King is the clear backup.  In that scenario Johnson can still play himself out of that position but if Johnson takes the first snaps of the season then that’s the horse Jimbo would prefer to ride.

I think the first 3 games will decide who the starting quarterback is for the rest of the 2022 season.  We get a nice couple games at home and then a Miami team that’s in the first year of a new coach.  That gives Jimbo the perfect scenario to decide which guy to ride the remaining 9 games.

My Prediction:

I think we’re going to see King and Johnson share snaps in the first two games.  How that happens I’m not sure and that doesn’t really matter.  Maybe it’s 2 series and 2 series or 1^st quarter and 2^nd quarter.  I think you’ll see Johnson in the first half of both of those games though.  That means there is no definitive starter for Jimbo to start the season.

I think at some point in the Miami game Johnson goes in the first half and doesn’t come back out for the rest of the season.  At least as a starter.

I have nothing against Haynes King and hope he’s successful.  Jimbo didn’t just go get Max Johnson for the depth chart though.  Max Johnson didn’t come to College Station because he likes wearing maroon on the sidelines.  Jimbo and Max Johnson both believe he can be the starter.

I think Max Johnson will be the Aggie starter after the Miami game.

As long as whatever starter wins football games I don’t care who it is.  I just want Aggie wins.  My hunch tells me Jimbo thinks that’s Max Johnson for 2022.  Which obviously means Haynes King will be our starter for the whole season…

The Jimbo/Saban Comments:

My quick thoughts are I don’t have a problem with any of it. Both coaches made their comments to weaponize their fan bases. Saban did it to spur more money from his boosters and Jimbo was standing up for his. Nothing more or less.

It’ll all get settled on the field but this makes for some great theater. I’m a little nervous because Jimbo just wrote some big checks he and his team need to cash but let’s be real. Bama has always been the target. Might as well go at them with everything you got.

To be the man you have to beat the man. Dusty Rhodes wasn’t afraid of Ric Flair and Jimbo ain’t afraid of Nick Saban. It’s risky business but Jimbo’s clearly up for it.

My last post talked about the Aggie position groups for 2022 in quite a bit of detail.  For this I’m going to take a “quick” look at the position groups and compare them to the 2021 team.  My initial thought was some of these groups won’t be as good.  After thinking more I believe my initial thought might be wrong.

With the NFL Draft done I think we can make a full analysis of the 2021 team.  The NFL Draft isn’t an end all be all on judging talent but it’s a damn good indicator.  Early rounders tend to fare better in the league than late rounders and undrafted free agents.  It’s an inexact science but it’s a pretty good indicator of talent.  The more players you have drafted and especially the earlier rounds is a good indicator of talent on a team.

There’s a reason teams that won the most games get the most players drafted.  Talent is a DEFINITE indicator of on field success.

The Aggies were 8-4 last year and wound up with 4 Aggies drafted.  That’s less than what we expected but it’s a great data point.  We had Kenyon Green (1^st round), Demarvin Leal (3^rd round), Michael Clemons (4^th round), and Isiah Spiller (4^th round) drafted.  That’s the same number of guys we had drafted in the 2021 draft.

I think I can say the 2021 Aggie football team wasn’t as talented as I thought it was.  I expected a couple more guys to get drafted.  It was still a damn good team and closer to 10-2 than people realize but they were an 8-4 football team.  That’s decent but not great.  Good enough to beat Bama so I’ll take it.

Will the 2022 Aggie football team be more talented than the 2021 Aggie football team?  Let’s look at the position groups.

Offense:

Quarterback – Much Improved:

I’m going to do a much deeper dive into the 2022 Aggie quarterbacks in my next post.

For now I’ll just say I think it’s safe to say/hope that one of Haynes King, Max Johnson, or Connor Weigman will be more productive than Zach Calzada in 2021.

If not, well, just get ready for the Aggie Football/Jimbo jokes from college football fans and the talking heads.  Much of it will be justified.

Running Back – TBD:

Initially I would have said the loss of Isiah Spiller would be a challenge to overcome.  Jimbo has recruited well but Spiller was a really damn productive back for 3 seasons.  Him leaving seems like a pretty big loss.  He was a very well rounded back in that he could run, catch, and block.  His blocking was probably the most underrated part of his game.

I’m putting TBD for two reasons – Devon Achane and the offensive line.  We all know about Achane’s talent.  We just don’t know about his durability.  If Achane is durable we’re gonna be just fine.  We might even be better.  If not, we’ve got some real inexperienced guys in the backfield.  Talented but inexperienced.

The other reason for TBD is because of the next group.  If they do what I think they’re going to do then our running game will be better than last season.

Offensive Line – Much Improved:

I’m really bullish on the 2022 Aggie offensive line.  We lose a first rounder in Kenyon Green but I think we’re going to be better.  Bryce Foster, Layden Robinson, and Deuce Fatheree all have All American talent.  All three of these guys are going to get drafted to play in the NFL.  Foster and Fatheree were true freshman last year and Robinson was starting his first season.  I don’t see how these guys won’t be much improved over last season.

Left tackle and left guard is a big of a crapshoot but I think we’re going to be fine.  We’ll step back a tad at left guard replacing Green but we’ve got talent in the wings.

I was never a fan of Jahmir Johnson at left tackle.  I’m not worried about improving from him at all.

This group could be better than 2020 offensive line which was a damn good unit.  If these guys gel early then the 2022 Aggie football team is going to be damn good.

Wide Receiver – Improved:

I’m marking this as improved for two reasons – It can’t be worse and there’s some young talent.

I’ve said repeatedly the wide receiver unit has been the most disappointing unit of Jimbo’s tenure in Aggieland.  We haven’t had a receiver drafted since Christian Kirk in 2018.  We’ve missed the days of Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, Mike Evans, and Ryan Swope.

We get Ainias Smith back which is a good base to start from.  We lose Demond Demas and Caleb Chapman.  I’m okay with this as they were long on talent but short on production.  Production matters.

I think Moose Muhammed is going to have a good year now that he’s a year older and getting regular snaps.  The early reports on Evan Stewart are REALLY positive.  Yulkeith Brown and Chris Marshall will hopefully provide that deep threat we’ve been missing.

I’d like to mark this unit as much improved but there’s just too much uncertainty.

Tight End – TBD:

I’m marking this as TBD just because it turns out Jaylen Wydermyer wasn’t as dominant as we thought.  It seems he just had a great rapport with Kellen Mond.  Don’t get me wrong in that Wydermyer was good but he wasn’t a special tight end.  Special tight ends get drafted.  That sounds harsh but it’s a reality.

This is TBD because there’s no one with experience but we’re long on talent and depth.  I personally think we’re going to see some combination of Jake Johnson and Donavan Green produce at this position.  At least from a receiving standpoint.

I think Baylor Cupp left because he wasn’t separating himself from the guys on the roster.  He knew he needed to find some place where could get snaps.

I believe we’ll have at minimum the same production we got in 2021 but likely more.

Defense:

Defensive Line – Improved:

I can’t believe I just said the 2022 defensive line will be an improvement over the 2021 defensive line.  The 2021 defensive line was the heart and soul of that team.  It was a damn good unit.

I just think there’s so much talent and depth on the defensive line that we’re going to see an improvement in 2022.  Not a drastic improvement but I think our defensive line is going to start doing what some Bama and Georgia defensive fronts have done in years past.

Like the offensive line I’m bullish here.

Linebacker – Improved:

Aaron Hansford was an outstanding linebacker for the Aggies in 2021.  I think Edge Cooper and Andre White are going to be better though.  In addition to the starters we’ve got some talented youngsters I think are going to add some nice depth.

This won’t be a massive improvement or a dominant unit but I do think the 2022 linebacker unit will be better than the 2021 unit.

Secondary – Improved:

I almost scored this much improved but I’m just going to say improved because of the inexperience.  We lose Leon O’Neal who I thought had turned into an outstanding safety.

There’s a lot of uncertainty of who plays where other than Demani Richardson but that’s not a bad thing.  The reality is we have a lot of talent to fill 4 spots.  This is a good problem to have.

I think when things shake out we’re going to have a really strong secondary with talent and depth.  Last year’s unit was pretty good but I’m comfortable saying the 2022 secondary will be better than the 2021 unit.

Summary:

Obviously I’m bullish on the 2022 Aggie units.  I think every unit could be better than the related 2021 unit.  Running back and tight end are in question but the talent is there to be better.  We just need health and early adapting to SEC play from the talented depth we have.

Every unit should be better than 2021.

I’m not exactly sure what that means for wins and losses but I definitely feel 8-4 is the floor.  I know that seems disappointing but that should really tell you how far Jimbo has brought this program in 4 seasons.  8-4 is now the absolute floor.

We’ve still got some developing to do but things are looking good.