Month: July 2018

2018 Season Prediction

MAFGA 2018 Season Prediction Cropped

It’s no secret I’m a fan of Jimbo Fisher.  Since the rumors surfaced Sumlin was out and Jimbo was the target I was excited.  Jimbo Fisher is a legit college football head coach.  He loves the grind of coaching, recruiting, and leading.  The dude never slows down and is driven to win a National Championship.  You need some breaks to win it all but first you need to have ability and effort.  I have no idea what the tenure of Jimbo Fisher looks like at Texas A&M but I don’t think it will be from lack of ability and effort at the head coaching spot.

Even with that I don’t think we’ll see a dramatic improvement from a wins and losses standpoint from 2018 from 2017.  I definitely don’t see a repeat of 2012.  We simply don’t have the talent.  We’re also going through a system change so it will take some time to get over the hump of what we’ve seen in the past.  I’m confident with Jimbo we’ll get there though.

If you want to read my thoughts on why 2018 won’t be like 2012 you can read why here.

Those thoughts center around the offense.  Defensively I think we have some talent at key positions but don’t have quality depth other than defensive tackle.  You need quality depth to win big in the SEC and we’re not there yet.  Jimbo is working on that but he’ll need a couple of seasons.

Let’s look at the 2018 Season game by game:

Northwestern State Demons (Win):

The Jimbo Fisher Era at Texas A&M kicks off on a Thursday night at Kyle Field on the SEC Network.  This should be a win without a doubt.  Jimbo’s first game at FSU was against Samford and they won 59-6.  Hopefully this game is similar and sets the tone for Jimbo in Aggieland.

An interesting note for this game is Dabo Swinney and Bobby Bowden are the only two coaches to ever win a National Championship in the BCS and CFP era but lose his first game at a school.  Bowden took over a horrible Florida State program in 1976.  Dabo lost his first game as Clemson coach against Alabama and Nick Saban in a neutral site game.  That was Saban’s second season and they went on to win the SEC West that season.  I think Dabo gets a pass in that game and 1976 was a different era.  Other than that, no National Championship coach has ever lost his first game as that school’s coach.  History says if you expect to win a national championship you better win your first game if it’s a winnable situation.  Hi Tom Herman!

One other note is both Mike Sherman and Kevin Sumlin lost their first game as Aggie Head Coach.  Sherman lost that stinker to Arkansas State and Sumlin lost to Florida.  Both games were at Kyle Field.  Dennis Franchione was the last Aggie coach to win his first game beating Arkansas State 26-11 at Kyle Field.

I can’t imagine a scenario where Jimbo loses and we’re worried about the ramifications of what it means.  We’ll start out 1-0 and keep chugging that delicious Jimbo Kool-Aid.

Clemson Tigers (Loss):

For Clemson I can’t imagine a scenario where A&M wins this game because of the Clemson defensive line against the Aggie offensive line.  Clemson has the best defensive line in the country with all four starters likely to go in the first two rounds of the NFL draft.  You should know my thoughts about the Aggie offensive line by now.  If not, click the link above why 2018 won’t be like 2012.

I do think there’s a chance the Aggies can win simply because I don’t think Dabo Swinney is a great coach.  I think he’s an outstanding coach but I put him the class of Mack Brown, Les Miles, and Bobby Bowden.  They recruit amazingly well and when they have a great staff they win a lot of games.  However, they don’t pay attention to the whole game adapting things when something is going wrong or struggling.  They just encourage and clap a lot.  Don’t get me wrong Dabo is a Top 10 coach in college football right now but he’s beatable by a great coach.

Clemson has lost to both Pittsburgh and Syracuse in the past two years so it’s possible the Aggies can sneak up on a much better Clemson team.  Auburn has also had close games against Clemson early in the schedule the past two seasons.  This isn’t an impossible win for the Aggies.

It’ll be a longshot as A&M just doesn’t have the offensive talent to compete with Clemson’s defense.  If A&M has any chance of winning this game it needs to be a defensive battle.  A&M won’t sustain many drives so they’ll either need to get some points off turnovers or have a couple of big offensive plays.  A&M won’t be able to do much between the tackles or have time for plays to develop downfield.  Any hope of moving the ball and scoring will require quick plays outside the tackles to Tray Williams or in short seams to the tight end which I assume will be Sternberger if the Maroon and White Game is any indication.

I think there’s a strong chance we see both Aggie quarterbacks in this game.  We’ll struggle to move the ball so I think Jimbo has different packages with each quarterback to see if one can move the ball better than the other.  Not sure it’ll matter but I think we’ll see both early on.  This will also give Aggie fans a chance to evaluate both quarterbacks in game and provide Jimbo the proper guidance on who to play.  That’ll be important for Jimbo to know which quarterback Aggie fans think is best.  Hopefully he’ll do a Twitter poll each week to determine who starts.

Coaching wise this will be Jimbo and Dabo’s ninth consecutive time to square off as head coaches.  They’re plenty familiar with each other from their time in the ACC together.  They’re split at 4-4 with Clemson winning the last 3 so Dabo definitely has momentum against Jimbo right now.  I think that momentum continues as Jimbo experiences his first loss as an Aggie coach.  Mike Elko is also familiar with Clemson having served as Wake Forest’s defensive coordinator prior to last season.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (Win):

This should be another easy win for Jimbo and the Aggies.  The only real interesting note here is ULM beat Nick Saban at Alabama in his first year as Alabama head coach.  If Jimbo does lose this game he can recover but I don’t think he loses this game.

Alabama Crimson Tide (Loss):

Speaking of Nick Saban, Jimbo takes his charges to Tuscaloosa for his fourth game.  That’s why he’s getting $7.5 million a season.  I don’t see any way the Aggies win this game.  Our offense won’t have enough firepower and I think Alabama will be able to move the ball on our defense.  Nick Saban doesn’t lose games like this.  That’s why he’s won 5 National Championships in 9 seasons.  That’s an amazing run.  Just amazing.

The one wildcard here is the Alabama quarterback.  It’s likely going to be Tua Tagovailoa which means this will be his first full game against a legit defense.  He certainly caught Georgia by surprise in the second half of the championship game but that won’t be the case here.  They start off against Louisville so that won’t be a big defensive test.  The Aggies will provide the first defensive test of his career so maybe they can fool him into some mistakes and take advantage with turnovers.

If Hurts plays there’s a chance the Aggies can win if we can shut down the run and not worry about the pass with Hurts.  It’s a tall order but Georgia showed how you beat Alabama with Hurts at quarterback.  He can’t make throws downfield so you have to shut down the run and get him in the situation where he has to.  Tall order but it’s how you beat Bama with Hurts at quarterback.

Alabama also has a new Offensive Coordinator in Mike Locksley but Saban has proven that’s never been an issue with him.  Maybe the Aggies can sneak up on a new OC and QB.  History says they can’t so I’m going with Alabama here.  2018 won’t be 2012.

Arkansas Razorbacks (Win):

The law of averages says at some point A&M should lose this game.  Interestingly enough A&M never beat Arkansas in 3 tries as a member of the Big 12 and has never lost in 5 tries as a member of the SEC.  For the most part this is a series that pitted Bobby Petrino against Mike Sherman and Bret Bielema against Kevin Sumlin.  Both sides hit CTRL-ALT-DEL after the season so now we have a third chapter with two new sets of coaches on each side.

There’s no doubt A&M will lose a game in this series as a member of the SEC but I don’t think this is the season.  Arkansas has gotten progressively worse talent wise under Bielema which was ultimately his undoing.  I think Chad Morris will be a MUCH better coach than Bielema but he’s a few years away from building up the offensive talent.  Y’all know how I feel about John Chavis but he’ll be working with less talent than he’s had in the last decade.  I think Jimbo will be able to exploit Chief’s tendencies.  Everybody else did at some point so hopefully Jimbo can too.  Chief likes to be aggressive and it doesn’t work when you don’t have the talent.

This won’t be an easy win and I think there will be a fair amount of points put on the board since there’s two strong offensive minds at work.  When the dust settles I expect A&M to be on the positive side of the scoreboard.

Also note this is another game with the opposing staffs having history with each other.  Morris was formerly the OC at Clemson so he’s matched up against a Fisher coached team and Elko lead defense.  It won’t matter though as the Aggies win pushing out the law of average a little further.

Kentucky Wildcats (Win):

I don’t know a ton about UK football other than a Stoops brother is their coach.  That’s about all Kentucky fans know about their football program as well.  Doing a little research they’ve been 7-5 the last two seasons and lost spare bowl games in the TaxSlayer and Music City.  Basically, they’re a little worse than A&M under Kevin Sumlin.

Getting Kentucky at home for an SEC FOOTBALL game should be a win.  If we can beat them in basketball in Aggieland then football shouldn’t be an issue.  I don’t think it’ll be a cake walk but this should be a game we control from start to finish.  At least I hope so.

Interesting nugget here is that Mark Stoops served as defensive coordinator under Jimbo for three seasons at Florida State.  That was right before he took the Kentucky job.  Hopefully Jimbo is like Saban where he crushes his former assistants.

South Carolina Gamecocks (Win):

This is a much tougher game than most people realize.  Will Muschamp is building a decent program at South Carolina.  They’re not a flashy team but they’re competitive.  I think Muschamp learned a lot after getting fired from Florida.  Sometimes you must take a step back to take a step forward.

South Carolina went 8-4 in the regular season last year finishing second in the SEC East.  Two of those losses were to Georgia and Clemson.  Nothing to be ashamed of there.  The other two were to A&M and Kentucky.  South Carolina finished the year beating Michigan in the Outback Bowl.  I know Michigan was down last year but that’s still a solid win for Muschamp.  Beating Harbaugh and Michigan in a bowl game is a damn nice win.

Jake Bentley returns for his third season as quarterback of the Gamecocks.  He’s a solid quarterback so South Carolina will move the ball and score points.  The question is how many.  I see this as a relatively low scoring game as Muschamp and Fisher play cat and mouse more than anything.

In the end I think A&M walks out of Columbia with a win but I’m not certain.  This is certainly one of those games that if A&M beats Arkansas and Kentucky with confidence they could slip up going on the road.  I just don’t see that happening in Jimbo’s first year.  The Aggies are playing to prove a lot.  A&M is 4-0 against the Gamecocks and it will extend to 5-0 this season.  The James Bonham trophy stays in Aggieland for its fifth straight season.  Y’all know that’s a thing, right?  There’s trophy for this “rivalry.”

Mississippi State Bulldogs (Win):

Mississippi State is a team that I think is about to fall off big time.  I think people are going to realize why Dan Mullen is an elite SEC coach.  Florida is about to take two steps forward while Mississippi State takes two steps back.  There’s going to be a lot of programs wishing they’d hired that Cousin Eddie look alike.  The dude can coach.

The Bulldogs won’t be a pushover with Nick Fitzgerald under center and a decent defense.  However, I don’t think you’ll see the brain farts A&M used to have against MSU with Sumlin going up against Mullen.  Mullen loved playing Sumlin every year because he could outcoach Sumlin and staff with ease.  Without Johnny, Sumlin was 1-3 against Mississippi State.  That’s pretty bad.  Clearly one guy can coach and the other can’t.  Now they’re both gone and things will change.

This is a win I feel pretty confident about considering the coaching changes.  One program got remarkably better at head coach.  The other program got remarkably worse.

Auburn Tigers (Loss):

Most people forget Auburn won the SEC West last season.  They also beat the two teams playing in the National Championship game.  I don’t care what you think about Gus Malzahn but that’s damn impressive.  Their two regular season losses were at Clemson and LSU.  Both games were within 8 points.  That’s a damn good regular season.  Gus’ offense will struggle every now and then but for the most part he always has a competitive Auburn team.

Jarret Stidham returns under center for Auburn.  That’s a big deal for their offense.  I think we all know he could be in maroon and white but if he’s in maroon and white then so is Sumlin.  It’s kind of like losing to Texas in 2011.  Sometimes addition does happen by subtraction.

Auburn has an underrated defensive team and their defensive line will give our offensive line fits.  I see this game playing out like the Clemson game.  It’ll likely be low scoring but in the end A&M won’t have enough talent to pull out the win.  It’s possible the Aggie offensive line is much improved by this time in the season but I just don’t see it happening in 2018.  This just feels like a loss with the talent Auburn has on their roster and especially under center.  Just take solace Stidham is the reason we have Fisher so it’s a short term sacrifice for a long term gain.

Ole Miss Rebels (Win):

This seems like one of the easiest wins on the schedule.  Definitely the easiest SEC win along with Kentucky.  They’ve been hammered talent wise by the recruiting and Hugh Freeze escort scandal.  Shea Patterson was one of two lone bright spots and he’s gone.  AJ Brown at receiver is the other bright spot but I’m not sure who’s going to get him the ball.  He’s one of the best receivers in the country but I don’t think he’ll be enough to beat A&M.

This is not a knock on the state of Mississippi as it’s fine state to visit with fine people but I think both of their major football programs are about to take major steps back.  Say what you want about Hugh Freeze but they won football guys with him as head coach.  Those days are over and aren’t likely coming back anytime soon.  I’m totally okay with that as I’d like a weaker SEC West.  Crazy to think a few years ago the SEC West had 7 teams with legit Top 25 talent.

UAB Blazers (Win):

This should be an easy win but UAB is a scrappy bunch.  Despite only their second year of football after being shut down for a few seasons they went 8-4 last season.  Sure, it’s the C-USA but they had wins over Southern Miss, Rice, UTSA, and UTEP.  I don’t think it happens but this could be one of those strange games that catches you by surprise late in the season between SEC games.

I say this every year but three non Power 5 conference games at Kyle Field is criminal.  We have 4 SEC games and 3 crappy teams this season.  Almost 50% of games at Kyle Field suck from an opponent standpoint.  We pay a lot of money for tickets and there should be only 2 non Power 5 conference games every season.  I’d be fine with 1 every season.  I get why it’s done but it still sucks for the fans.  I like watching A&M win but not against crappy opponents.

LSU Tigers (Loss):

This is the biggest game of Jimbo’s first season.  No matter what happens in the first 11 games (barring a total collapse) this game will have the most meaning.  Winning this game will not only get the LSU monkey off A&M’s back for the first time in the SEC but it will put us into the off season with some November momentum.  The 2010 and 2012 seasons seem like decades ago where we closed out with big wins in November.  Win this game and we get momentum for recruiting and the off season.  Lose this game and Jimbo looks like another Aggie coach that can’t close the season.  Not completely but it’s ammo for our opponents to use in recruiting.

I have no clue what to expect of LSU.  Ed Orgeron entertains me but I think he’s a below average head coach.  LSU is loaded with talent so they overcome a lot of head coaching mistakes.  He has some great coordinators which know how to utilize that talent.  LSU went 9-3 last season with head scratching losses to Mississippi St and Troy.  After those loses they only lost to Alabama before losing to Notre Dame in their bowl game.  That’s a damn good season for most programs.  For LSU it seemed like a complete collapse.  They still finished ranked at 18.  That’s no collapse.

This is a damn good LSU team despite some folks thinking the Tigers will fall off this season.  They have a tough schedule opening with Miami along with drawing Georgia out of the East along with their annual game against Florida.  Maybe their record won’t show they’re a good team coming into Kyle Field but they’re still a damn good football team.  The homer in me wants to think Jimbo can win this game but I don’t think this is the season it happens.  LSU still has too much talent for us to overcome them this season.  If our offensive line shows serious improvement we can win this game but until I see that I can’t pick A&M winning this game right now.

I hope like hell we win this game.  The difference between 8-4 with a loss to LSU and 9-3 with a win over LSU will be HUGE to the program.  Recruits and everyone else will take notice things could finally be different at Texas A&M.  11 games to be played before this one so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens with both teams during the season.


I have the Ags going 8-4 in Jimbo’s first season with predictable losses against Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU.  It’s very possible we go 7-5 with an additional loss to South Carolina.  I also think it’s possible we go 9-3 with a win over LSU or Auburn.  I’m almost positive we win at least 7 games but not more than 9.  8-4 seems right based on the schedule, talent, and new coaching scheme.  I predicted 8-4 last season getting the Florida and Mississippi State games wrong o I wasn’t far off.  I don’t think I’ll be far off this season other.

Since Jimbo got here and based on what Sumlin left I’ve felt 2020 would be the season A&M competes for a SEC West championship.  Despite a lot of Jimbo Kool-Aid drinking this off season I think this team is lacking talent for a “break-through” 2018 season.  8-4 still fits in with my expectations for Jimbo assuming he holds the recruiting class.

You can read my overall expectations for Jimbo at Texas A&M here:

Hold tight as Jimbo works to Make Aggie Football Great Again.  It’ll happen in due time.


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Thoughts from Houston Coach’s Night

Jimbo Coach's Night

Nobody knows the eventual outcome of Jimbo Fisher’s tenure at Texas A&M.  He may never win the SEC West or he may win multiple national titles.  Only time will tell.  The telling thing will be how much he wins and loses.  It’s the only thing that matters in sports.  Sure, you want to win with integrity but at the end of the day the only thing fans really care about is wins and losses.  Jimbo’s tenure will be judged on wins and losses.  This much we know.

When Jimbo was hired I said if he doesn’t win big we might as well shut the Aggie Football program down.  I feel no different after seeing him at the Houston A&M Club Coach’s Night.  For 45 minutes Jimbo talked football and Aggieland at a pace that made the auctioneer on stage before him seem like he was talking slow.  This was after flying back from Atlanta where he spent all day talking at SEC Media Days.  Sure, he flew on a private jet so it wasn’t like he was fatigued from travel but regardless the man rattled off things about his team and Texas A&M at a pace and length most people in the audience couldn’t keep up with.  They became dis-interested not because what he said was boring but because their brain couldn’t keep up with Jimbo’s words.  Seriously.  Some people at my table gave up trying to follow along with what he was saying.  It got me excited.  You needed your brain’s full capacity to catch every word Jimbo was saying.

It’s clear Texas A&M finally has a legitimate football coach again.  It’s been since around 1995 that we’ve been in this situation.  The last legitimate football coach we had was R.C. Slocum before Mack Brown, Nick Saban, and Bob Stoops arrived on the scene and R.C. lost his way.  I’ll get to that in more detail in a bit.  I finally feel confident we have a coach with no question marks when it comes to being a college head football coach.

I won’t get into the details of what he said as it’s the same thing he’s said repeatedly in other press conferences but it’s crystal clear Jimbo Fisher knows and loves coaching football.  Jimbo carried a small piece of paper to the podium with a few notes but for 45 minutes he spoke completely from his brain.  His brain is filled with football knowledge.  Players, schemes, technique, coaches, and motivation he covered it all.  He knows football is a complex sport that combines all those things.  His brain is constantly thinking about all those things combined.  He’s very focused and he’s very driven.  That much is clear.  He wasn’t up there speaking to speak.  He was speaking about his knowledge and his expectations.  He constantly thinks and works to win football games.  He understands it’s not just plays and players that matters.  It’s every drill about technique in practice that matters.  It’s about his staff.  It starts with a bunch of individual things that must be combined to work in unison.  He knows he’s the leader and it starts with him.  He’s going to set the example for work and knowledge.

In addition to his football knowledge he’s quickly learned his A&M knowledge.  It was impressive the things he’s already realized about Aggieland.  He’s not learning about Aggieland to just speak about it.  He’s doing it because he’s figuring it out how it will help him win football games.  He’s using it to help recruit and he’s doing it to garner support from Aggies all over.  It is good though that Jimbo does seem to get Aggieland.  It’s a special place and he truly seems to understand that now more than ever.  Understanding Aggieland will only help him win games.  Plus, if he does win it all he’ll sell the school as much as the football program.  He’s going to take that next step we’ve yet to realize since joining the SEC.

I’ve never spoken with Jimbo personally but I don’t think he’d be any different than what you see on stage and in interviews.  He’s real and he’s raw.  He speaks from the brain more than the heart.  He’s not covering up any deficiencies.  Having helped put on Coach’s Nights in Houston and Fort Worth I’ve been able to be around every head coach since Jackie Sherrill.  Jimbo seems different than all of them.

Jackie is by far the most personable of all of them.  He knows football but Jackie is a natural salesman.  There’s no doubt why Jackie recruited like he did.  Make the paying the players joke if you want but it was the nature of the beast at the time.  Jackie could recruit for a reason beyond what was going on at the time.  He’s extremely personable.

R.C. Slocum is a fine person but he was stubborn as a coach.  He didn’t want to adapt to how football was changing and what other schools were doing.  Both on the field and in recruiting.  He thought showing up as R.C. Slocum wearing Aggie gear would be enough.  He won a lot but it wasn’t enough.  R.C. was a great coach when he took over from Jackie but he couldn’t sustain it.  Mack Brown, Bob Stoops, and Nick Saban exposed his deficiencies as a coach in my mind.  He’s a fine person but he was put in an outstanding situation and didn’t adapt to keep it going long term.

Dennis Franchione was an arrogant punk.  He felt he was better and smarter than everyone else.  He didn’t like being bothered by regular people.  He was a fraud as a coach as he rode some good luck with Gary Patterson and Ladinian Tomlinson at TCU.  He then inherited a loaded Alabama team before he headed to Texas A&M.  He had his work cut out for him at A&M but he was in over his head.  He masked it with arrogance until he couldn’t win enough.

Mike Sherman is as fine of a person as you’ll meet but he has no charisma and the big picture is not his strength.  He’s a very intelligent man at certain things.  Mainly offensive play calling.  He makes for an outstanding Executive Vice President but he’s not cut out to be a Chief Executive Officer.  His hiring as Head Coach at Texas A&M is still the most confusing thing I’ve ever seen.  I never got it then and I still to this day don’t get it.

Kevin Sumlin just wants to be a celebrity.  He doesn’t want to work because he’s not all that smart.  He caught lightening in a bottle with that 2012 team (and Case Keenum at UH) but the reality he’s not interested in being a great football coach.  He wants to give rah rah speeches and never look at film or work drills with a player.  He’s a great public speaker and a funny guy but he’s horrible as a head coach.  He’s made for a television headset and not a coach’s headset.

Jimbo seems different than all of them.  He has the raw mental horsepower to understand complexities and not be overwhelmed.  He has the curiosity to learn from others and change for the better.  He’s funny and charming enough that he can sell recruits.  He has the work ethic to set the example if you’re not willing to work for it you’ll never achieve it.  He seems humble enough that when assembling a staff he wants people to challenge him and not just compliment him.  He’s the leader but he wants independent thinkers offering feedback.  While he clearly knows a lot and likely knows more than any one person in the room he knows he doesn’t know it all.  Others can still offer him knowledge.

Jimbo referenced Scott Woodward several times last night.  It’s clear Jimbo wasn’t completely sure what he was getting into at Texas A&M and it wasn’t just about money.  He came to Texas A&M because of one person.  Jimbo believed that person when he was told he’d have more resources to win a National Championship than at Florida State.  That person is Scott Woodward.  Let’s never forget what Woodward means for the Jimbo hire.  He’s the man that made it happen.

I loved the Jimbo Fisher hire from the first day.  I didn’t have any reservations about him like I did with Fran, Sherman, and Sumlin.  From what I’ve seen from Jimbo since that day nothing has changed.  Seeing him speak in person I haven’t had faith in the Aggie Football program like this since the early 90s.

Maybe Jimbo never wins that National Championship.  Something tells me he will.  He’s done it once at Florida State and I think the timing is right for him to do it at Texas A&M.  I don’t think Tom Herman will be super successful at Texas so our main in state competitor for talent is susceptible.  I think in the next 2-3 years Nick Saban will step down as Bama coach.  I think LSU will wander aimlessly for a spell like before Saban got there.  I think Georgia and Florida are poised to rise in the East which hill hurt Auburn for recruiting.  You have to win the SEC West before worrying about a National Championship and it could get easier for A&M to do so.

I think everything is lining up for Jimbo to have one hellacious decade at Texas A&M.  It won’t happen this year as our offensive line is too weak.  I think by the third year Jimbo is going to have Texas A&M poised for a run at the National Championship.  I really do.  I don’t feel like I’m drinking the maroon Kool-Aid.  I really feel I’m looking at it objectively.  A part of success takes timing.  I think the timing is finally lining up for Texas A&M.  It’s about damn time.

If you’re an Aggie get ready to enjoy this next decade of Aggie Football.  It’s going to be like that period from 1985 to 1995 where there’s a realistic expectation win every game.  I’ve been behind the phrase Make Aggie Football Great Again for over a year now.  It’s about to happen.  When it’s all said and done Jimbo Fisher will have changed it to Made Aggie Football Great Again.

Get ready to #MAFGA

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