Before I get into the game I have to comment about everything Auburn.  Their fans were amazing all weekend.  From being out on Friday night at their version of Northgate, to some tailgating before the game, to during the game, and then at the bars after the game on Saturday night.  Just tremendous and welcoming all weekend.  I didn’t run into one jackass.  I put them as the nicest fan base I’ve visited above Nebraska and Alabama.  I hope we’re just as nice when visiting fans come to Aggieland.  The scene in the stadium was tremendous.  There’s no doubt we made the right choice going to the SEC.  If you haven’t been to Auburn put it on your list as you won’t be disappointed.

As for the game that’s a damn nice win.  We went on the road against a damn talented football team and controlled the game for most of it and put them away when we had to.  There are lots of areas to work on and we didn’t even come close to playing flawless but we held control and momentum for most of the game.  While you can question the coaching of Auburn that’s still a really talented team so we had to work for it.  In the end I’d say we out coached and out played them and that’s something we couldn’t say last year and even two years ago.  As a whole this team has improved for the third straight week and that’s not something I’ve felt we’ve done in the past two years and even in 2013.  This kind of feels like the 2012 season which I’ll touch on later.

Before I get into each unit I have to say this game felt like the Vanderbilt game last season.  We were playing a really tough defense and had trouble in the red zone all night but converted 5 field goals and scored a long touchdown.  Auburn has a much better offense than Vandy but it just had that feel where we were in control the entire game but just couldn’t quite walk away until late in the game.  That’s not a bad thing but we could have really blown that game away with better play calling and execution in the red zone.  As it was though we didn’t take any chances and didn’t make any mistakes.  We held control and walked out of our first SEC road game against a really talented team with a solid win.  You take that all day long.

Offense:

I have to say Trevor Knight played a really good football game.  He wasn’t flawless as he was only a 50% passer on the night but his receivers had some drops they shouldn’t have had.  Most importantly Knight did not turn the ball over.  For the most part he played within himself and played his best game against the best defense he’s faced without a doubt.  At least as an Aggie.  Knight missed some passes on his own but I’ll take the Trevor Knight we saw on Saturday night all season long.  Even better if he improves some which I think he will.  I thought his decision making in the pocket was pretty decent.  He’s still not perfect but he did a good job of just tucking and running or throwing the ball away and not trying to do too much.  The kid is a really good runner and I have no issues that if he feels pressure and sees a lane to tuck and head up field.  I’m going to do a little piece on Knight later this week if I get time but I was impressed with Knight on Saturday night considering he appears to be improving and not regressing.  Regressing is what we’ve seen out of our QBs the last two seasons.  If this is Knight’s baseline for the rest of the season I’ll take it.  Would love to see him keep improving which is what I think will happen.

The most impressive part of our offense on Saturday night was our offensive line.  Not because they dominated but because the adjusted in game.  On the first two series despite us getting positive yards at times the Auburn defensive line was blowing up our offensive line for the most part.  I really thought we were in for a long night.  Auburn scored on their second possession and we had two punts on our first two offensive possessions with Auburn’s defensive line over matching our offensive line.  I was seeing 2015 all over again down 7 to 0.  Not sure what Jim Turner did but he got our line in tune and they handled Auburn’s defense for the rest of the night.  Not dominant by any stretch but all of a sudden our offensive line was holding their own.  The interior part of the line was especially taking the fight to a really good Auburn defensive line.  Never saw that in game adjustment last season with our offensive line so it’s great to see.   Later in the game the work our offensive line did all night finally showed in Trayveon Williams long run which was the official dagger in Auburn.  Their defense was fully cooked at that point.  Our offensive line has lots of improvement but I like what I’m seeing.  Great game by them and let’s hope they keep improving with Knight.  I have no reason to think they won’t at this point.

Outside of Williams big run our backs didn’t dominate by any stretch but they worked and ran tough all night against a really good defense.  I have no complaints with what they did and assume as our offensive line improves so will their yards.  We don’t have the talent of LSU or Bama in our backfield but the guys we have are really serviceable and an improvement over last year which is not a knock on Tra Carson at all.  That dude had major heart but Ford and Williams are just better equipped for what we need right now.

The biggest negative of our offense against Auburn was our receivers no doubt.  Everybody had some drops they shouldn’t have and RSJ is just still inconsistent with catching balls.  He shouldn’t be this bad at this point in his Aggie career but he’s just not a reliable pass catcher.  Reynolds had his usual nice long catch along with a TD catch but he also missed another TD catch.  Kirk didn’t have any long catches but had a couple key receptions.  He also got his bell rung in the third quarter but came back in.  He had a nice 20 yard run so he’s just a weapon I’m glad to see Mazzone utilize in many different ways.  Kirk does a lot of work as a receiver he doesn’t get credit for.  Speedy had a nice catch and run for 40 yards but I thought he made a mistake going out of bounds when he could have given an inside cut to the defender and potentially broke into the end zone with his speed.  I’m really not impressed with Moorehead as a receivers coach with these drops and then seeing Speedy step out of bounds when he could have made a move for a potential TD.  It just seems Moorehead is an average coach and that’s it.  He doesn’t appear to be a nails recruiter so he’s a guy I’d like to see replaced assuming Sumlin is here next year which I’ll touch on later as well.  Now, I will credit this receiving corps in that they doing a pretty damn good job blocking and take that seriously.  That’s a really solid thing and hope it doesn’t change.

Outside of the individual units the biggest negatives of this offense remain the same.  It’s third down conversions, red zone conversions, and time of possession.  On third down we were 2 of 15.  TWO of FIFTEEN.  That’s 13%.  THIRTEEN FREAKING PERCENT.  How in the world did we even win this game with that conversion rate and actually scored 29 points?  It’s really mind boggling.  We actually had 19 first downs which is pretty impressive but that means we had 16 first down conversions on 1^st and 2^nd downs as we converted a 4^th down but man we’ve got to get better at converting third downs.  That would go a long ways to winning time of possession and giving our defense a huge lift.  I still contend Mazzone is just picking plays and not really sequencing or scripting plays which would help our offense control a game better if he could get us in shorter third down situations.

As for the red zone we were inside the red zone 5 times and kicked 4 times.  We also made a trip inside the 30 yard line that turned into a field goal and not a touchdown.  Outside of that we had one big play that got a touchdown.  We’re going to need bigger plays or a much better conversion rate in the red zone against teams like Bama and Ole Miss if we want to beat them.  I’d prefer red zone conversion to hoping for big plays to score touchdowns.  Hopefully Mazzone works on some red zone plays that show the defense a different look and catches them by surprise.  We’ve also got to get better converting third downs.  We get better in the red zone and converting third downs then our time of possession gets better and our defense gets better.  Mazzone still has lots of improvement as a play caller in that regard.  He’s not terrible by any stretch but he’s nowhere near the play caller that Petrino and Kiffin are and that’s what I hope he aspires to be.

Defense:

I have to start off with Mr. Myles Garrett because the dude is just amazing to watch in person.  We’ve got at least 10 more games with him and maybe a couple more but enjoy the 10 games because he’s special.  For 3 games now from start to finish he’s just wrecking shop and altering the plans of the offense.  I can’t believe Gus thought a backside guard could get to him before Myles wrecked their backfield.  You would think when it didn’t work on the first play of the game he wouldn’t try it again but Gus stupidly tried it again to similar results.  I think it only happened twice.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again but Myles is just dominating the left side of the offensive line by himself.  If you don’t give the left tackle help Myles is going to destroy him.  It’s really creating so much else for our defense.  Myles may not be the #1 pick next year but if you’re an NFL scout and watch him in person it’ll be hard to walk away and not think he’s the best defender in the country and be someone at the next level like a JJ Watt.  His stats aren’t showing it but his play flat out is.  Myles just does everything he can to help his defense from start to finish.  There are no taking plays off waiting to get an easy sack as Myles knows there’s not any.  He’s just a special special guy.  I don’t know how he comes across on TV but I can’t take my eyes off him when the ball is snapped because he’s just that amazing.  I think against Arkansas he could flat out dominate their Undertaker looking left tackle.  Arkansas will probably put him on an island early on and once Myles gets his third sack they’ll start looking to help Undertaker, Jr.

As for the rest of the defense they did what they had to do.  If you thought Auburn wasn’t going to get some rushing yards you haven’t been paying attention to what they do.  They run the ball and run the ball really well.  They got 236 yards of rushing which is more than you want to give up but most importantly their longest run was 33 yards.  That’s a damn fine job by our defense that got gashed for long run after long run last year in this game.  The longest runs by their two backs were 33 and 20 yards which is okay by me.  Auburn is just built to run.

In all honesty no one else on the defense really stood out to me other than Myles.  That’s not a bad thing at all as against Auburn you have to play disciplined defense.  Everyone seemed to step up and make a play at times which was great to see.  The defensive tackles were on a solid rotation which kept them fresh against Auburn’s big offensive line.  I’m sure the Auburn offensive line was wondering why our defensive line wasn’t wearing down.  We run a solid 5-6 guys out there at defensive tackle so they’re always battling someone fresh.  Hall had a decent game and made a couple of really nice stops but seems he was just out there holding his position and playing responsibilities.  That’s not a bad thing.  I did see him get burned crashing on a zone read but he didn’t do it all night so I’m fine with a mistake here and there assuming it’s not repetitive.

The linebackers seemed to be really solid and they also rotated a lot.  Last year’s linebackers seemed to be one step too slow and out of place which lead to some really big Auburn runs last year.  Not this time.  The linebackers were filling the gaps they were supposed to and not being out of position.  This linebacking group really reminds me of the 2012 in that they’re not dominant but they’re playing really smart football.  This is a younger group with more depth than the guys in 2012 so that’s a really good sign.

The group that looked the best behind Myles was no doubt our safeties.  Justin Evans is just a flat out baller.  Watts and Wilson are no slouches and they looked really solid as well.  There’s no doubt in my mind Evans and Watts are playing on Sundays and I actually think Wilson will play on Sundays as well in his nickel role he does for us.  This group like Myles just keeps holding their own and getting better which helps mask our inexperience at the corner position.  As far as the corners go they did okay.  Auburn had 163 yards of receiving which isn’t amazing but they averaged 7.4 yards a pass which is pretty good.  They just don’t pass a lot but they do it regularly enough you can’t forget to defend it or totally sell out to the run.

Kind of like defending the running game, Auburn’s longest pass was 18 yards so we didn’t give up a big pass.  There’s a lot of factors for that including the pressure we could get on the QB if they tried to set up for a long pass but it’s nice to know Auburn didn’t get any long passes by surprise.    Our defense was ready.  The other impressive thing this defense did was playing the first down marker on 3^rd and longs.  What I saw a lot of the night was on anything 3^rd and 10 or longer we’d give them an open zone about 6 yards downfield which baited the QB to throw there and then immediately crashed for little to no gain.  Auburn was 6-17 on third down conversions and 0-2 on fourth down conversions.  I’m too lazy to look but I bet they didn’t convert more than one third down that was longer than 6 yards.  If we tackled them for a loss on a first down I don’t think they converted the second or third down.  That’s pretty impressive when you don’t give up that momentum as a defense when you get a tackle for a loss on 1^st down.  That’s the way it should be but defenses don’t always execute it that way and there’s nothing more demoralizing than have an offense convert 3^rd and 12 on you.  That wasn’t happening with our defense on long 3^rd downs against Auburn.

As a whole I’ve mentioned this defense reminds me of the 2012 defense.  It does in many regards but it’s just flat out better.  We really need to enjoy this defense this year as it’s going to drop off next year.  We’ll lose Myles, Hall, Evans, and Watts.  Maybe Watts stays another year but I think there’s a chance he goes.  Myles and Evans are getting drafted in the first round.  Hall and Watts will go in the second to third rounds.  I don’t think we’ll see the drop off in talent like we had from 2012 to 2013 on defense but I’m telling you now to cherish this 2016 defense because it’s the best we’ve had since back to RC Slocum and the legit Wrecking Crew of old.  I’m not quite ready to call these guys the Wrecking Crew as they’re missing some dominant linebacker play.  But at any given time there’s 11 guys out there playing their asses off and most importantly playing their role against their opponent.  It’s been a long time since I’ve since this in an Aggie defense and I’m loving every minute of it.

Special Teams:

Have to start off with LaCamera going 5 for 5 and none of them were really gimme kicks.  LaCamera had kicks of 46, 35, 31, 37 and 26 yards.  The 26 yarder was sort of a gimme but the others were legit kicks on the road in a pretty tight game that he nailed.  Much like the Vandy game.  Tripucka averaged 42 yards and had a long of 59 which he flat out booted.  We didn’t have a single return this game.  Not one on punts and not on kickoffs.  I’m actually okay with that as in a game like that just take the ball on the 25 if it’s kicked in the end zone and on punts just call the fair catch and hold the ball.  No need to take a chance giving the other team a turnover on the road in a pretty tough environment.  Special teams just executed all night long and that’s what you want.

Going Forward:

After seeing Tennessee’s third performance I’m ready to move this to a 9-3 team.  Kevin is gonna win nine and be fine.  I have a good feeling we’ll be 6-0 rolling into Tuscaloosa.  I’m also really thinking this could be a 10 win team as I want to see what LSU does against Auburn this weekend.  I think LSU wins that game so I won’t be able to move us to a 10 win team yet but if Auburn beats LSU then Les is a dead man walking and that team will have quit come Thanksgiving night.  I also think there’s a strong chance we beat Ole Miss as they’re reminding me of 2011 Texas A&M.  I mean they’ve blown two 21 point leads.  That’s Mike Sherman style right there.  Ole Miss is still a really talented football team but they’re obviously struggling to put 4 quarters together and if that trend keeps up there’s no doubt we can beat them at Kyle in November if this A&M team keeps  getting better each week.  I honestly didn’t feel that the last two years at this point.  This could honestly be an 11 win team playing in a major bowl game.  With the right breaks we could even play for the SEC Championship but any discussion of that begins or ends in Tuscaloosa so let’s cool our jets on that talk until after that game.  Nick Saban controls the gate to the SEC Championship for SEC West teams.  That’s just the way it is.

We have to get past Arkansas first but they really don’t scare me.  Auburn scared me like Arkansas scared me the last two years.  We got by Auburn.  This Arkansas team is not as good as their last two seasons’ teams.  Maybe I should be scared but what I saw in their TCU game and what I saw in our UCLA and Auburn games I feel really confident we’ll win this game and there’s a good chance we walk away with it.  Assuming we don’t make mistakes with the ball.  That TCU defense is not that good and Arkansas had to come back on them and get them in double overtime.  Arkansas also played La Tech close and I don’t think La Tech is good at all.  Just based on three games for both teams I think we handle Arkansas really well.

I know a lot of people are afraid of Arkansas because of the last two years but our offense really struggled those years under Spavital.  Mazzone while not spectacular has shown to be a marked improvement over Boy Wonder.  With the way our defense and offensive line is playing I just feel really confident going into this game that we could really make a big showing against Arkansas.  This could be that statement game we didn’t have the last two years where we had to come back and basically steal a victory.  I don’t see that happening this year.  I really think we walk out of Jerry World with a statement win that this is a different A&M team that’s not going to collapse down the stretch like we’ve done in the past.  Maybe I’m wrong but with 25% of our schedule done I’m feeling a statement game.  I don’t think it’ll be a 2012 Mississippi State game where we announced we’re kicking ass from here on out but I think it’s going to be pretty convincing.  We’ll need a wide margin as a lot of people won’t see the second half as they’ll be asleep .  They’ll just see the final score on Sunday morning.  I’m all for this team making a statement they’re a Top 10 and deserve to be there.

My prediction – Aggies 33, Arkie 16.

Not a whole lot this week but wanted to hit on a few things so I’ll get right to it.  For those of you wondering I know I’m biased but I confidently feel the Nationally Famous Fightin’ Texas Aggie Band did in fact win halftime.  No doubt PVAMU entertained at half time but in the end their effort fell short of 360 Aggies marching in perfect precision.  I was truly worried though.

Offense:

I’m just really going to hit on a few negatives here as the positives are way too many so just look at the score and stats.  First off, Trevor Knight is a pretty good quarterback.  He’s easily in the top half of starting QBs in the SEC.  He might actually even be Top 3 as this season keeps going so I’m not saying he’s a total pile of dung.  He’s without a doubt the best guy to be starting for us considering what happened at the QB position at the end of last year.  I’m just looking at him and trying to be objective on expectations with the hope he can be really good if not great.  Based on his time at OU and two games here he’s still just inconsistent.  He sailed some balls that he had no reason sailing.  He was 57% this weekend and against Prairie View and you just have to be better.  He also threw an interception that was extremely stupid and a reminder he can’t spot balls like he thinks he can.

Now, to his credit he threw some REALLY good deep balls to Christian Kirk.  He also looked really good running the ball.  And all in all it looked like he was getting better as the game wore on so maybe he’s still just getting more comfortable as a starter and in Mazzone’s system.  He did look better this week than last week but that’s to be expected considering the opponent.  I was just hoping to see fewer mistakes.  There were mistakes though that just makes me keep the foot on the brake when it comes to getting really excited about Knight in that he’ll win us games by himself.  There’s definitely some hope he keeps developing and we’re going to find out a lot more this weekend against Auburn.  However, with the Knight I’ve seen in two games I currently feel we can lose any SEC game with him at the helm.  I’m not saying we lose every SEC game and far from that as I think we do win more SEC games than we lose but right now I think there’s a strong chance we lose an SEC game and it’s because Knight has a horrible day from a completion and turnover standpoint.  I really hope I’m wrong on that and very well could be.

Another negative from the game is I don’t think RSJ is really going to be a clutch receiver.  He’s amazingly talented but he’s just not consistent in catching balls.  He’s not the guy I want to be going to when we need a 3^rd down or TD.  It would be nice with his size and speed but I just don’t fully trust his hands.  It’s been 3 years and his hands have always been his biggest question.  He’s still good and there’s no doubt he should be starting but like Knight throwing an interception I feel like RSJ is going to drop a ball when it’s needed most.

The final negative was our third down conversion was right at 50%.  Just like Knight needs to have a better completion percentage against PVAMU I feel the same about our third down conversion.  Due to Knight’s inconsistency and the fact we converted 33% and 50% of third downs in the first two games, I don’t have much faith in this offense extending the drive on anything longer than 3^rd and 4.  That means Mazzone has to start sequencing plays to minimize 3^rd down distances.  I know that sounds obvious but I feel there’s been some calls on first and second downs that we were trying to get a first down when we probably should be trying to gain 3-4 yards.

All in all though I’d give the offense a grade of 85 for the game.  A whole lot of positives as the backs, line, and Kirk/Reynolds are just solid.  It’s just there’s a few inconsistencies from key guys and the 3^rd down conversion issue that still bother me.  We’ll find out what it all means on Saturday when we go on the road for a night game at Jordan-Hare.

Defense:

I actually heard some people complain about the defense because PVAMU moved the ball some and we had to block a field goal to keep them from scoring.  They gave up 205 yards in being on the field for 32 minutes.  That’s actually really remarkable.  I read a Tweet where 121 yards of that came on two possessions so basically other than TWO possessions the Aggie defense was flat out dominant.  PVAMU was 5 of 18 on third down conversions and a 1.1 yard per carry average.  As Russell Crowe said in The Gladiator said, “Are you not entertained?”  That was a solid 4 quarters of defense against a team that had some decent athletes.  Usually in games like these one of those guys wiggles free for a score but that didn’t happen.

 

Looking forward I’m still leaving us at 8-4.  We’re going to find out a lot more about this team the next two weeks against Auburn and Arkansas.  My original prediction was they were both wins but I don’t know about Auburn.  They played Clemson close but Clemson looks in question but Auburn also took care of business on Saturday night.  I’m not sure if that means Auburn is good or bad.  I think they’re definitely better than I expected them to be.  I still lean to us winning but it’s not going to be easy.  I do think we beat Arkansas still despite their win over TCU.  I don’t think TCU is a Top 10 team and Arkansas matches up with them well.  With Arkansas almost giving the game away at the end I feel like we keep our streak going but it won’t be easy.  There’s a good chance we’re 5-0 with Tennessee coming to town.

Speaking of Tennessee they looked like the team everyone expected but their QB is still dicey passing and Va Tech turned the ball over 5 times.  Let’s see what they do against Florida in two weeks.  LSU finally switched QBs so I’m interested to see what they do the rest of the season now that their biggest issue was been changed.  Fournette is still in question there though.  Ole Miss solidly beat a cupcake but I think Bama is going to stomp Ole Miss this Saturday like they slammed Georgia last season.  I mean Saban was ripping into Kiffin with a minute left of a 28 point win.  If you don’t think that was on purpose for Saban to set the tone to make up for 2 back to back losses against Ole Miss you’re a fool.  It doesn’t mean Ole Miss is a bad team but Bama is just going to abuse them this weekend so we won’t really know where they are other than not Bama’s level but no one else is this season.

With all that I’m leaving us at 8-4 until we see what happens the next two weeks as we’ll get a LOT of clarity on who we are as well as those teams left on our schedule.  We could still go anywhere from 6-6 to 11-1 but until we get through the next two weeks I haven’t a clue.  I honestly do think we could go 11-1 but if we don’t get by Auburn and Arkansas then we don’t stand a chance obviously.

With football season less than a month away it’s time for me to make a season prediction for this year’s Aggie team.  Before I go through each game I’ll touch on the offense and defense a little bit.

Offense:

This offense begins and ends with Trevor Knight.  For some reason Aggie fans have drank too much maroon Kool-Aid and think Knight is the second coming of Johnny Football.  He looks the part and talks the part but he’s not going to play the part.  He brings maturity and leadership no doubt but let’s not forget he’s a guy that couldn’t cut it at OU which is why he’s in Aggieland.  At OU he had a 57% completion rate and threw 25 TDs with 19 interceptions.  That’s not even close to earth shattering.  That’s VERY pedestrian.  The light is not all of a sudden going to come on and change those numbers dramatically.

I do think Trevor Knight can be a very serviceable quarterback but he’s not going to carry this Aggie team.  I’d like to think Knight could have the ceiling of an AJ McCarron but I’m not even sure that’s possible.  McCarron was a 67% passer and threw 5 TDs to every interception.  That’s a big step from Knight’s career at OU.  Maybe the best case is Knight becomes a 60% passer with a 3 TD to 1 interception.  That’s not bad but that’s not a guy that carries his team at QB.

As for the rest of the offense the offensive line worries me quite a bit.  I like Jim Turner a lot as a coach but the talent and depth is not there like it’s been in the past.  I don’t think it will be worse than last year as that unit was more talented but they were flat out horrible.  This line should be much better from an execution standpoint but not sure how great it can be.

Running back will be pretty solid assuming enough of these guys stay healthy.  Wide Receiver is flat out loaded so that’s a definite strength of this team but I just hope Mazzone can quarterback whisper Knight into being a better version of the OU Knight.

All in all I think this offense can be better than last year simply because Jake Spavital isn’t involved in any capacity.  Have I ever told you how much I hated Jake Spavital?  In all seriousness I do like Mazzone and a lot of components of this offense.  It won’t be a dominating offense by any stretch but I think it can put up points giving us a chance to win.  I just think Trevor Knight won’t win any games and will likely cost us a game or two when it’s all said and done.

Defense:

First off let’s talk about our defensive line.  I firmly believe that our defensive line could be the best in the country.  Garrett, Hall, Mack, and whoever else starts at DT (assuming it’s Zaycoven) is as good as it gets in college football.  Even better is we’re a solid 2 deep along our defensive line.  Football is won in the trenches and when you have a defensive line that can apply pressure by itself the rest of the defense gets freed up to make plays.

Our linebacker corps has major questions but there is some decent talent to start but those 2-3 guys have to stay healthy.  The talent drops off quickly after Washington, Alaka, and I guess George or Moore will be our other LB in 3 LB sets.  We can’t sustain any injuries at linebacker or we’re going to be in trouble.  At best this linebacking group could rival the 2012 crew of Porter, Jenkins, and Stewart.

The secondary is loaded at safety with Watts and Evans.  Those two guys are total studs and likely playing on Sundays in the not too distant future.  Not totally sure who will start at corner back but we’ve got a few talented guys that can be serviceable.

Even with the potential holes at linebacker and corner I think this defense will be pretty damn good.  Good enough to win quite a few football games.  My main question is how this offense will be able to complement the defense when it comes to the final number of wins and losses.  Last year’s offense couldn’t respond when the defense gave them the ball with a chance to win late in the game.  If this offense can’t respond it’s just going to be more of the same.

With that, here’s my game by game prediction:

UCLA:

This feels a lot like the ASU game from last year.  Really good Pac-12 team with a solid QB coming into Texas higher ranked.  This game is really a toss-up but I feel like this our game to win and will.  The defense won’t be anything UCLA has seen or can be prepared for.  I think with this being Knight’s first game under center he can just execute a game plan UCLA wasn’t fully expecting.  I know there’s an element of UCLA knowing Mazzone but if you go back and look at the offenses Mazzone has run he’s pretty adaptable to the talent he has.  The offense UCLA knows of Mazzone with Rosen at QB won’t be the same offense they see with Knight.  The score will be decided by less than 7 points but I see the Aggies holding on for the victory.

This is Sumlin’s biggest game of the year as if he loses this thing he’s done at A&M I think.  He’ll have to fight all year for wins but if he gets off on the wrong foot in the first game I really don’t think he recovers.  This is the most winnable of the big games and Sumlin has proven outside of Johnny’s first year his teams regress as the season wears on so has to win this one.  If he loses this game we might as well put him on the Green Mile.

Prairie View:

A&M wins walking away but this has already been set as an 11:00 am kick.  11:00 am kick in early September.  A&M gets the win but NOBODY wins anything in this game.  Seriously.  What a total waste of a day for Aggie football.  Maybe some depth guys get playing time but man this game will be brutal.  I long for a day when college football schedules no more than 2 cupcakes a year and even then I think it should be 1.

Auburn:

I scratch my head on this one as I really like Malzahn but maybe he’s not the amazing coach I think he is.  Maybe he harnessed Cam Newton and then caught lightening in a bottle his first year in Auburn winning the SEC and playing for the national championship.  Looking back at that 2013 season he could have EASILY lost to Miss St., Bama, Georgia, and A&M.  We’re talking a late TD pass with seconds left against Miss St that had to be reviewed, two amazing plays to end Bama and Georgia, and an injury to Johnny Manziel when Kenny Hill couldn’t find his helmet so Matt Joekel went in and missed a TD pass to put A&M up by 7 instead of 3 when we settled for a field goal.  No doubt you make a lot of your luck but Auburn was REALLY close to being 7-5 that season.  What does Malzahn look like at 7-5 that season?  A lot like Kevin Sumlin without Johnny his first season I think.

This feels like a toss-up game but I really think A&M is the better team walking into this game.  This team has won at Auburn before so they shouldn’t be intimated.  Sure, it’s our first night road SEC game but there’s enough leadership on this team it shouldn’t matter.  Auburn isn’t real sure who their QB is going to be and they have a new defensive coordinator in Kevin Steele who got run out of LSU after last season.  He’s never impressed me as a coach so he doesn’t scare me at DC like Muschamp did last season.

Auburn opens up against Clemson and I think that’s a loss.  If we beat UCLA and they lose to Clemson then this is our game no doubt.  If we lose and they win then this is their game.  I think we beat UCLA and I think they lose to Clemson and we win this game.  Aggies go to 3-0 and Auburn to 1-2 and Gus is a dead man walking waiting to see if Sumlin joins him.

Arkansas:

We all know about this game.  Sumlin has had Bielema’s number although it’s required OT magic the last two years.  Remember that was with Jake Spavital as our OC.  I know there’s the law of averages where streaks have to end but I really feel this is a game we win by double digits.  We have the defensive line to match up with Arkansas’ strength and with Spavital gone as OC I don’t think we struggle offensively.  It won’t be an easy game and we’ll feel the pain the next day but I think we win this game somewhat comfortably.

Sumlin seems to be to Bielema what Saban is to Miles.  Team wise and number wise Arkansas should beat us from time to time but I think this is just one of those things where have Arkansas’ number like Bama beats LSU repeatedly when everyone thinks LSU should win from time to time.

South Carolina:

So Will Muschamp takes over a program in worse shape than when he took over Florida.  I mean MUCH worse.  If Spavital was here I’d be somewhat worried about this game but Spavital isn’t and Mazzone will prove to be a much better match for a Muschamp coached defensive.  Even though it’s a road game I think the Aggies also win this in convincing fashion.

Tennessee:

Tennessee is MUCH better than anyone in the West likely gives them credit for.  This is going to be a really tough game for A&M.  I’d like to think we win this game but I’m not really sure.  It’s definitely a toss-up and a lot will depend on how well our offense develops along with how healthy our defense is.  Tennessee has a really mobile QB in Dobbs and Chavis tends to struggle against mobile QBs.  This feels like one of those games that goes back and forth and Tennessee makes a play in the end to win it.  They choked away a lot of games last year and I feel they don’t do it this year even being on the road at Kyle Field.

I’m taking Tennessee here but once again it’s all about our offensive development and defensive health.  If Knight and our offensive line is developing with a healthy defense then this is the Aggies to win no doubt.

Alabama:

Johnny Manziel is not walking back through that door and the only other time we’ve played in Tuscaloosa we lost 59-0.  I’d love for Trevor Knight to recreate his Sugar Bowl magic against Bama but I don’t see that happening as Saban has adapted to the college game.  This isn’t a gimme win for Bama and I think we’ll actually play within two touchdowns but I don’t think we have the horses to compete with Bama so this is another loss.

New Mexico State:

Playing the Aggies of New Mexico State on Halloween weekend.  Once again the Texas Aggies win this game but there’s no real winners here.  Trick or treat, kids.

Mississippi State:

This game doesn’t scare me at all.  I really think we’re the better team here without Prescott.  We beat them in convincing fashion last year.  They lost Prescott and we lost Spavital so that’s like a double gain for us.  I know we’re going on the road but I think the Aggies win this by 10.

Ole Miss:

At one point I thought Hugh Freeze was the dumbest coach in the SEC.  The Kevin Sumlin hired Jack Spavital and took that crown.  Seriously.  I hate Spavital that much.  Ole Miss has flat out owned A&M the last two seasons.  I mean just frustratingly owned us thanks to better coaching.

This is a better A&M team than Ole Miss has played in the last two years but because of Chad Kelly at QB I think Ole Miss is the better team.  The kid is a flat out legit QB.  I think that because of that he makes more plays than our QB and Ole Miss wins the game.

This is much like the Tennessee game.  If our defense is healthy and our offense is progressing and not regressing then I think we can win this game no doubt.  Picking right now though I’m picking Ole Miss.

UTSA:

The Saturday before Thanksgiving when we play LSU at night on Turkey Day.  Seriously.  Did the powers that be want to set up the cupcakes in the worst absolute scenarios to see just how few fans would show up?  I’m a diehard Aggie and have season tickets and I don’t want to go to this game.  Do the student s go out of town in preparation for the Thanksgiving game.  Will there even be a wait at Wings N More or The Chicken all weekend.  Won’t someone think of the hospitality revenue lost on these cupcake weekends?

Aggies win but like the other two games everyone else loses.

This game is so hard to predict right now.  It could mean nothing at all, it could mean a spot in the SEC Championship game, or it could mean Les and Kev are fighting for their jobs.  Seriously.  No idea how to really know what happens in this game other than to look at history.  That history says Kevin loses and Les wins.  Same thing the last four years.

Unlike Bama and just like Tennessee and Ole Miss I do think this is a very winnable game for the Aggies going back to defensive health and offensive development.  The Aggies win the games I predict they win but pull off a win over Tennessee or Ole Miss they’re sitting at 9-2 and all of a sudden this is an Aggie team that can finally beat the Swamp Kitties.  If the Aggies walk into this game at 9-2 they’re coming out 10-2.  Bet your hard earned dollar on that.  They come in at 8-3 and Les has an equal or better number of wins then Les takes this win and everyone wonders about Sumlin’s job.  I’m predicting we walk in at 8-3 and Les is 9-2 so Les walks out with win 10 and Kevin stays at 8 making his next season in Aggieland a tough decision for the powers that be.

 

So I’m predicting an 8-4 season with losses to Tennessee, Bama, Ole Miss, and LSU.  I said in my last piece that 7 wins gets Sumlin fired without question and 9 wins keeps him in good graces as that’s a pretty remarkable season based on this schedule.  If he goes 8-4 with those three major home losses I think Sumlin is gone.  Recruiting will lose momentum as it’ll look he’s a perennial 7-8 win coach when he doesn’t have Johnny Manziel.  He’ll get a nice $15 million parting gift and hopefully we can snag Tom Herman or at worst Chad Morris.

There you go Ags, an 8-4 season and a new coach in December.  You heard it here first.  I do hope I’m wrong as I really want Sumlin and this staff to succeed but based on Sumlin’s 4 seasons I don’t see it happening.

In trying to figure out my bowl prediction it’s really hard to guess what’s going to happen. Across the board A&M is the better team from a pure talent standpoint. Obviously we have a major question at quarterback considering it’s Hubenak’s first start but outside of that our only real weakness is across the offensive line and linebacker. Every other group of players is good enough to compete against anyone we play and win more than 75% of the time. Unfortunately this season we only won 67% of the time.

The thing that I can’t quite get over is coaching. I still don’t trust Spav to call plays and the fact he’s using a first time starting quarterback who took VERY limited snaps only makes it worse. With Kyle Allen’s first start last season he went really conservative and in Kyler’s first start this season it was the exact same offense as he had run for a year and a half with no new wrinkles. Kyler has great mobility but Spav still seemed to run the same offense so I don’t expect too many offensive wrinkles with Hubenak under center. I think we all want to be surprised by Hubenak but Spav’s body of work as an OC says to expect otherwise. While Jake Hubenak is no slouch he hasn’t seen a lot of live action and the Louisville D will have a really solid idea of what to expect and be ready. Big difference between practicing against guys you know and a live game against guys scheming against you every play.

Louisville while not as talented has some really solid coaching at the top level. Bobby Petrino is a great offensive mind. Our defense will get the better of Louisville most of the game but I have a feeling Petrino will have a few tricks along with making adjustments to move the ball into field goal scoring positon. Todd Grantham was a really solid DC at Georgia and is the kind of DC that giggles going up against someone like Spavital. I have a feeling Grantham will have watched a ton of film and have his defense ready for Spav’s tendencies.

Louisville got blown out in their bowl game last season but they played a pretty solid Georgia team that just ran Nick Chubb down their throat. Georgia won that game 37-14 while Chubb carried the ball 33 times for 269 yards and two scores. I love Tra Carson but he and our offensive line are no Nick Chubb even if Spav does give him the ball 33 times. I don’t think their bowl game last year is a great comparison for what to expect in our game.

Louisville was 7-5 this season but their losses were at the hands of Auburn, UH, Clemson, Florida State, and Pittsburgh. The losses to Pittsburgh and Auburn are questionable but there is no shame in losing to UH, Clemson, and Florida State this season. I think A&M and UH would be a toss up but I’m positive we’d have lost to Clemson and Florida State as well. We obviously lost to Auburn so that’s kind of equal and Louisville lost to Pitt on the road. That’s really the difference in these two team’s season.  A&M is one win better than Louisville against what can be perceived as better opponents but our record is not all that better than Louisville when you really look at it. So all things considered Louisville is not too terribly far behind us performance wise this season. A&M has the talent to be better than 8-4 but our record is indicative of what we actually did.

I see this game playing out much like the ASU game to start the season with two main differences. We won’t get the amount of sacks or turnovers which allowed us to blow out ASU towards the end. That ASU game was in question until about midway through the 4^th quarter when we were finally able to pull away. Louisville has some inexperienced offensive tackles like ASU but I don’t think Petrino will allow his QB to be a punching bag like ASU did with theirs. I think we’ll get 3-5 sacks but we won’t have 9 like against ASU.

I expect us to be up 10-7 at half. Our defense will contain Louisville except for a big play likely on a screen or mis-direction where they’ve detected a blitz. Offensively we’ll move the ball for the most part but won’t sustain most drives except a couple that allow us to get a touchdown and field goal.

It’s the second half that has me concerned. I think their defense will mostly shut down our offense except for a couple drives where we get into the red zone but come away with field goals. We didn’t score a TD in the second half of the Vandy or LSU game hence my concern. I think Louisville gets a couple turnovers thanks to Hubenak’s inexperience and Spav’s predictability. Much like Kyle Allen threw a pick six in last year’s bowl game I think Hubenak throws one was well. We’ll also have a turnover on our side of the field that sets up a field goal. Along the way they’ll bust a big run for another field goal. The final result will be a 20-16 Louisville win. I hope I’m wrong but that’s just how I see things shaking out.

Now if Spav comes out forcing up tempo with wrinkles Louisville hasn’t seen then we can win this game walking away. If we can get up by two scores early that will allow our defense to bring pressure and tee off on Louisville where we get the turnovers. If we play it close and predictable I just don’t see how we get the breaks to win. Spav will be scared with Hubenak in his first game and call a very conservative game I have a feeling. It’s just who he is. There’s a chance of a 2014 opener against South Carolina in Spav but I only see that as a 25% chance.

A&M has the talent to win this game in convincing fashion but it’s hard to believe that will happen based on the offensive play calling the last two seasons. It’s just not good and has held this team back for 2 seasons now. This has Auburn written all over it where the lesser talented team with better coaching pulled off the win. I hope Sumlin and Co. proof me wrong as I’ll be cheering for the Aggies to do just that.

BTHO Louisville!

First off, I’m not advocating the firing of Kevin Sumlin. My intentions in doing this was to take as an objective look as possible at Sumlin’s head coaching career. Based on the results of this season and especially the Kyle Allen transfer there’s a whole lot of emotion and concern with Aggie Football right now. Is it justified? It sure feels that way but maybe it’s not.

From my standpoint college football is based on wins and losses. Nothing else matters. Rankings, players, style, and everything else is just window dressing. Wins get you to conference championships which in this day and age get you to the College Football Playoffs. Sure it’s possible to win it all without winning your conference but it’s really rare. You have to win games. Plain and simple.

So with that I decided to take a look at some various aspects of Sumlin’s win and loss record. Here’s the various categories below:

Overall at UH – 35-17 (.673)
Record with Keenum – 32-11 (.744)
Record without Keenum – 3-6 (.333)
Overall at A&M – 36-15 (.706)
Record with Manziel – 20-6 (.769)
Record without Manziel – 16-9 (.640)
SEC Record Overall – 17-15 (.531)
SEC with Manziel – 10-6 (.625)
SEC without Manziel – 7-9 (.438)
SEC Record at Home – 6-9 (.400)
SEC Record on Road – 9-6 (.600)
SEC Record Neutral – 2-0 (1.000)
UH Bowl Record – 1-1 (.500)
A&M Bowl Record – 3-0 (1.000)
Conference Championship Game (CUSA) – 0-2 (.000)
Highest SEC West Rank – Tied for 2^nd with Manziel. 4^th, 6^th, and T-5^th in other seasons.

 

So what does all of this mean? For me it means Sumlin is not as bad as it seems right now. My main concern in doing this was to check and see if he’s the product of a two great QBs in Keenum and Manziel. It’s certainly the case with Keenum at UH but the overall A&M record with and without Manziel weren’t as stark as I thought it might be. It’s definitely improved with Manziel but not as much as I thought. The SEC record with and without Manziel is pretty concerning though. So looking at the various win and loss isolations doesn’t show cause for major concern but he’s definitely a much better coach with Keenum and Manziel. How much better with Manziel is up for debate. Keenum is not. The SEC record at home is just embarrassing and needs to be fixed immediately.

Tossing all the win/loss stuff aside I think the most concerning thing right now is the perceived negative trend of the Aggie offense and it does seem justified. The main culprit is Jake Spavital as OC. Our offense the last two seasons has been woefully inconsistent and flat out not productive at times. We’ve shuffled through three different starting QBs and our line play has regressed the last two seasons. There’s been a definite drop in talent with the loss of NFL tackles but the line has not even been serviceable at times. If you can’t compete at the line of scrimmage you’re not going to win very many games. While Spav is the QB coach the line still falls under him as the OC has to understand its ability so he can design and call plays in accordance with how the line performs. Spav seems clueless of any issues with the offensive line. It seems he’s calling plays in a vacuum of a struggling offensive line. That’s a concern beyond the offensive line struggling itself.

There have been a lot of flags with the offense the past two seasons but I’ll point out two in the last two games. Against Vandy we had one touchdown and it was a 95 yard bomb where Kyle Allen was able to throw deep to Josh Reynolds. Kyle Allen has an NFL arm and we have a bevy of deep threats at receiver so any OC in the country could design a play to get man coverage for a deep ball. Hell, any of us could do it. It’s the staple of Thanksgiving games everywhere. In that game we kicked SIX field goals but only scored one TD on that 95 yard bomb. We were in field goal territory SIX times but couldn’t sustain a single one of those drives to score a TD. Now the Vandy defense is decent but not that great to keep our offense in field goal range SIX times and prevent us from scoring a SINGLE touchdown. That’s on the OC for not being able to call plays to score a SINGLE TD.

Against LSU we scored 7 points. Now most people probably don’t see the issue in that as we’ve struggled against LSU since joining the SEC. However this is the first time we’ve ever had single digits against LSU. Even worse we were the ONLY team in 2015 that didn’t score double digits against LSU. Actually, the next lowest amount of points given up by LSU in 2015 was 19. We were 12 points off the second lowest amount of points given up. The likes of Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, South Carolina, Florida, and Western Kentucky scored at least 12 more points than Jake Spavital’s highly vaunted offense. Unreal.

In games 11 and 12 of this season our offense is still sputtering along against decent but by no means outstanding defenses. With the weapons we have at receiver and the arm of Kyle Allen there’s no reason why we shouldn’t have scored 3 touchdowns in each of those games. I’m dead serious about that. Based on Spav’s two year body of work I don’t know how Sumlin could not let him go a day or two after the LSU game. Spav is just not getting it done but yet Sumlin appears to be unsure of his next move unless he’s working in some stealth mode that even the United States Air Force wouldn’t know how he’s doing it.

To make it worse this week comes the transfer of Kyle Allen. Despite what you think of Kyle Allen there is no doubt that at this current moment he’s the most productive QB on the roster. Maybe Kyler turns the corner but if you look at the production of Kyle and Kyler objectively up to this point it’s not even close. Kyle has been the better quarterback by far. Kyle would be going into his third season in the program so it’s safe to assume he would continue to progress as a QB. Kyle is likely going to be a first round draft pick and play for a long time on Sundays. He has that kind of talent and at times showed he can read a defense. Now he’s gone.

The rumored stories of the reason for his transfer are concerning. He got hurt in the Bama game but gutted it out because of the issues with Kyler and Spav apparently. He then had to play hurt in the Ole Miss game due to Kyler’s double secret suspension but Kyler still traveled with the team. That still boggles my mind why Kyler traveled if he wasn’t going to play. Kyle got hung out in the Ole Miss game WAY too long because Kyler couldn’t play. I think Spav was afraid to go to Hubenak when it was clear something was wrong with Kyle. Kyle was then relegated to third string against South Carolina and Auburn while his injury was kind of hidden for whatever reason. He comes in the Western Carolina going for 6/6 and looking stellar. He gets the starting job back and plays the entire game against Vandy and LSU. It was actually Hubenak and not Kyler who closed out the LSU game. Sumlin and Spav TOTALLY botched how they handled the QBs this season. TOTALLY BOTCHED.

Sumlin is apparently wavering in what he’s going to do offensively next season. To make it worse two weeks after the last game Kyle shocks the staff and says peace out. I don’t blame Kyle at all based on the way they handled him this season. I think we all knew there was a chance Kyle or Kyler would transfer but Kyle seemed to have the starting job locked down but he still decided to move on. He should be moving into his third season with a roster full of guys he knows but instead will transfer somewhere he’s unsure of and sit out a season. It makes no sense on the surface.

So here Aggie football stands with no proven QB under center no matter what we do at OC. Kyler was a stud in high school and can flat out move but his passing has been less than stellar this season. He definitely doesn’t have the arm of Kyle Allen so having a fleet of stud WRs doesn’t mean as much as with Kyle. I will also say it was maddening to watch Spav run the same offense with Kyle and Kyler. They both have different skill sets so some of Kyler’s struggles are on the lack of an OC that should have designed and called plays to Kyler’s strengths. Once again what does Spav see with his players? I don’t get it.

If I’m the A&M AD I tell Sumlin he has to remove Spav ENTIRELY from the staff. He’s had three seasons on staff and hasn’t developed as a QB coach and OC. Both starting QBs to open the last two seasons have now transferred. That’s pretty damning as one is okay but both shows the lack of development the last two years offensively. They transferred because they weren’t entrenched as the starter. You can’t have a QB carousel with guys that aren’t seniors. I’m fine with the Baylor approach of developing a kid on the roster for a couple of years and then plugging them as a junior or senior and never missing a beat. That’s not what’s going on at A&M right now. It’s utter confusion by staff and players at the QB position. The most important position in the program has no identity.

I don’t really want to go 8-4 again next season but that’s my bar for Sumlin in 2016. Anything less and A&M is going to have to make a tough financial decision. Sumlin should probably go but it’s going to cost A&M a ton of money to move on. 8-4 or better and it would be tough to justify firing Sumlin despite more of the same.

My biggest fear on Sumlin is waiting too long with him and losing Chavis as well. Chavis is the most valuable person associated with the football program. I know there were frustrating moments with the defense this year but if you truly watched the defense you saw a defense that never quit and made adjustments throughout the game to improve. Chavis was a flat out miracle worked compared to what Snyder had done. Without Chavis we’re probably 6-6 and the heat is cranked on Sumlin despite what goes on with Spav and Kyle Allen. If it becomes clear Sumlin is not a great head coach I don’t want to wait too long. The ideal scenario would be to hire an offensive mind like Chad Morris or Tom Herman to pair with Chavis as DC. Not saying Morris or Herman is the answer but finding a true offensive minded coach that works with Chavis would be ideal. Dude is at worst a Top 5 defensive coordinator in the country. I think he’s the best. Dude can flat out coach a defense.

If Sumlin does decide to keep Spavital I think next year will be his last season. I can seriously see us going 1-3 to start out losing to UCLA , Auburn, and Arkansas. There’s a good chance we could go 1-6 losing to South Carolina, Tennessee, and Bama as Muschamp at home against Spav is not a matchup I have much faith in. Tennessee is super talented and we all know about Bama. Miss St. loses Prescott so that game won’t be as tough even on the road and we get Ole Miss and LSU at home. No idea right now how tough those games will be. Although Sumlin has shown playing SEC games at Kyle is not an advantage for his squads. I could see us going anywhere from 4-8 to 7-5 but not much better with Spav as OC. Yes, he’s that bad.

Conversely, if Sumlin brings in a bona fide OC and QB coach along with getting an improved offensive line then 8-10 wins is very doable. With a stud OC and Kyle Allen coming back I think we’re a potential threat to win the SEC. But that’s not the case anymore. I just don’t see wining the SEC even if the new OC is a true stud without Kyle. Developing Kyler will be tough as he’ll likely only have him over the summer as during the Spring Kyler will be playing baseball. 2016 is all of a sudden a major question due to Kyle Allen transferring.

Right now is truly a swing moment for Sumlin . If he can turn Kyle Field into an SEC home field advantage and hold his other tendencies we’re all of sudden an SEC West contender praying Bama stubs it toe more than once a season. I have no idea which way it will go but I can see it going either way assuming Sumlin makes some hard decisions about his offensive staff. What he has now isn’t working or even close to working. If he sticks with the current staff he’s a dead man walking and we’ll be looking for a new coach 12 months from now. I personally hope Sumlin pulls it off and contends for the SEC in the next season or two as the only thing worse than a QB carousel in a program is a coaching carousel.

If Sumlin does get let go it will be a fascinating tale of luck to amazing wealth. To the best of my research he might not be the offensive guru he is portrayed as. It looks like he only called plays for half a season at A&M. He basically leveraged one win with Reggie McNeal over OU to get a job on OU’s staff. He sat on the OU staff eventually getting to Co-OC but he wasn’t working with the QBs or calling plays. He was the wide receiver coach. He leveraged that Co-OC gig to the HC gig at UH where Keenum was already on the roster. He made some nice hires in Holgersen and Kingsbury as OCs and rode Keenum’s success to the HC gig at A&M where Manziel was on roster. We all know about the 2012 football season which Sumlin leveraged for $5 million a year and the second highest paid coach in the SEC. Maybe he’s Dennis Franchione 2.0 being in the right place at the right time before his ineptness caught up with him. I hope not but we’ll find out in the next 12 months. Sumlin’s coaching seat is officially hot.

Executive Summary – In my typical fashion my words ran long. If you’re wondering if you should run the San Fran Marathon as a casual runner I HIGHLY encourage you to run the first Half for the scenery. There are some hills but it’s really not bad if you can handle hills. If you absolutely hate hills then you won’t like it but I found the hills on the first half to be challenging but not demoralizing.

The second half is another story. All 26.2 are an amazing accomplishment but the second half was something I was not mentally prepared for based on looking at the course map and elevation map along with having some knowledge of Golden Gate Park. If you want to be challenged for 26.2 miles I encourage you to give it a go. I have nothing to compare it to but there was no training in Houston I could have done to prepare me for it.

If you have time to kill feel free to read on. My apologies for the length but I got to writing and couldn’t stop.

Prior Marathon Experience – Zero. Nada. Zilch. Prior to running the SF Marathon I’d run one long race my entire life. In high school I HATED it when coach made us run a mile. Seriously. Was painful. Let’s run 10 gassers rather than a mile. So in college a bunch of girls signed up for a 5K and asked me if I wanted to run so I said sure. I ran a 21:30 5K and felt really good about it but never felt the need to run any distance race again. I would run 3 miles off and on but nothing I was ever passionate about. I say that to let you know 3 miles was about the longest I’d ever run before deciding to run a marathon some 15 years later.

Why the SF Marathon? – San Fran is my favorite city to visit in the U.S. It’s got the same character of New York but smaller and more manageable. I love New York for business but for leisure I’ve just always preferred San Fran. I was out there 3 years ago for work when the Marathon was going on. I’ve always thought about running a Marathon but never seriously. Something struck me that weekend I should do it and do San Fran because it would be scenic and the weather fantastic for a fat kid like me. If you’ve never been to San Fran in July it’s usually REALLY cold for July. With all my insulation I thought it would be perfect.

That weekend I got out the course map and saw the elevation map and saw the steepest climb was up to and across the Golden Gate. So I laced up my shoes and took off for the Golden Gate and hit the hills up to and across. A little more than 6 miles. No doubt it was tough but the weather was AWESOME and running the Golden Gate was amazing. I was hooked and was in. How hard could the other 20 miles be? Piece. Of. Cake.

It would take me another three years to do it due to work stuff and moving back to Houston from Fort Worth but it was always a goal. When work stuff finally worked out where it wouldn’t be an issue to train and travel, I was all in. As for deciding to go from a 5K some 15 years ago to a Full marathon rather than a Half it was all about go big or go home. Seriously. If I’m going to commit to running a long distance then let’s just nut up and do the whole damn thing. I figured this would be the only one I ever did so might as well do the whole enchilada. Plus, I wanted to be able snicker at those people with “13.1” on their cars. Just kidding Halfers!!! A Half is still an amazing accomplishment!

Training – Real quick on training. I trained for the thing by myself. It’s just kind of how I am for something like this. I need to be left alone and work out my issues by myself. I need to figure out what works to convince my body and brain to live in harmony for something as painful as running that far. No amount of encouragement from anyone is going to change my thoughts. I got a training plan from my buddy that owns a running store in Cincinnati with daily miles and took off running. A little like Forest Gump but no one ever joined me on my long runs. Looking back that would have been kind of cool.

Part of my training psyche was that I’d be training in Houston in May, June, and July and would be trading heat for hills in San Fran. I had to REALLY slow down my training pace when I hit June and July on my long runs due to the heat. I was running early on Sat mornings but it was still just too humid and hot to run the pace I wanted. Kind of frustrating but I worked through it.

As for what finally worked for me mentally was I treated it like all those drives I made between Fort Worth and Houston moving back. I’d put on Randy Rogers Band Pandora and zone out for the most part. Pay attention to my surroundings but get lost in every other thought besides the idiotic thing I was currently training for. In the book Lone Survivor there was a quote that always stuck with me while Marcus was in SEAL training. One of the SEAL trainers tells Marcus, “Marcus, the body can take damn near anything. It’s the mind that needs training.” That quote struck me when I read it. I’d remember that quote when I thought I was fool for attempting to do this and keep going. The body can handle more than you can imagine. It’s the brain you have to convince you can do it. Seriously. The mental hurdle was the toughest because it would have been so easy to quit.

My goal was to run sub 4 hours which is a little more than a 9:00 pace. I was able to do it on my 10-13 mile runs in May but when it hit June I had to drop back to a 10:00 and then an 11:00 pace to make it the distances I needed in the heat. My longest run was 22 miles on July 4th 3 weeks before the race which I finished at a 10:30 average but finished the last 6 miles at an 8:30 pace with a negative split the entire run and had lots of kick at the end. Tapered off the distances after that and was hitting sub 9:00 pace on every run and felt I was ready to bust 4 hours.

The Weather that Weekend – Remember when I said this fat kid decided to run SF because it’s REALLY cold this time of year? Yeah, well, Mother Nature wasn’t smiling on the fat kid.  It was UNBELIEVABLY hot that weekend. Normally that time of year you’re wearing long sleeves and pants at all times and a decent sized jacket at night and still feeling cold. Not that weekend. Got off BART in Union Square in shorts and t-shirt and it was hot. I never wore sleeves or pants all damn weekend. This would be a HUGE factor for me. It would cool down at night and was DEFINITELY cooler than Texas but honestly about 20 degrees hotter than normal and had me worried about busting 4 hours.

The Race – I was never really nervous or anxious about the race. I had already run it several times in my mind. I actually built spreadsheets with paces per mile tied to the elevation so I knew where I needed to be to bust 4 hours based on my training. I just needed to run the race based on my training and those spreadsheets and I’d break 4 hours and never run another again. I went to SF alone and was just fine with that. I met up with my cousins Friday night and spent Saturday bumming around the city but I wanted to focus on the race and busting 4 hours.

On race day I walked down to the starting area from my hotel which is another reason I chose SF. I could stay in the city and not have to mess with parking and all that. Just walked the 15 minutes or so and got in my flight stall and waited like cattle at an auction until we were free to take off. It was cool that morning but I was in shorts and t-shirt and never once felt cold like I normally would. My only hope was that the sun would hold off until after I was done. We’ll get to the part about the sun eventually.

The first 3 miles are flat as can be. Great way to warm up without being pushed. The worst part of those first three miles was passing the Boudin sourdough factory about at mile 2. They were clearly baking sourdough that morning and I clearly wanted to stop. So unfair to do that to marathoners. At mile 2.5 there’s a pretty steep climb at Fort Mason but not too bad. Short hills are actually my strength as I found myself passing lots of folks and only got passed by one fool I’d quickly pass when he ran out of gas. After that little climb it levels back off for another couple of miles running along the bay with the Golden Gate in sight. About that time the sun is starting to appear and it’s just beautiful.

At mile 5 the climb to the Golden Gate begins. The first 5 miles I had gone from a 9:30 pace the first couple of miles as I let things get stretched out and settled to slowly increasing the pace to where I was about 9:15 at mile 5. The initial climb up the Golden Gate is pretty steep and probably 500 to 600 yards long. Lots of people were struggling up it but I was able to maintain my pace and pass lots of people and only got passed by that one yahoo that thought he was Rocky. Getting to the top of that hill was a moment I’ll never forget. When you get up the top you turn to the right. If you look to your right you can see Alcatraz. I looked over and there was the sun just peeking up right next to The Rock. It was gorgeous. I laughed out loud how amazing it looked. Turned towards the Golden Gate and started the smaller climbs up to the bridge.

Running the Golden Gate is AWESOME. Just AWESOME. The only really bad part is there’s only one lane going out and one lane going back in. It sucks if you’re trying to stay on a pace or like me decided to let the adrenaline push you a little as you’ll get caught up behind people as it’s not wide enough with only one car lane each way. I did a lot of slowing down and darting in and out of people to keep up my pace and not get slowed down. In a way it was kind of fun but took lots of concentration to find the gaps and not be rude to another runner. I wish they would use three lanes total and open up it a little bit.

Two of the coolest things for me running the bridge was hearing other Aggies give me a “Howdy” or “Gig ‘Em!” and even high fived another Aggie as we passed next to each other as I was going back and she was heading out. Pretty cool moments being in the SF Marathon and having Aggies acknowledge one another. Saw a kid in a Longhorn shirt so I smiled at him and he rolled his eyes and smirked so I gave him a thumbs up and a “Gig ‘Em” since he was clearly bothered by my Aggie shirt. The other AWESOME moment was making the turn to head back across and there’s a lookout point back to San Fran. You see the full city and it just looked awesome. In fact one of the pictures is of me bringing my eyes back to the course because I turned my head to look for such a long time to stare at the city.

Getting to the end of the Golden Gate is about mile 10. Not gonna lie that’s one of the most fun things I’ve ever done in my life. Weird to say that about running 10 miles at a non competitive pace but just the scenery and energy from the other runners pushes you. The other exhilarating part for me was I passed the 4:10 pacers about mile 7ish so I thought I’d have no problem busting 4 hours. I had even gotten my pace right under 9:00 so I was in good shape at mile 10.  I wasn’t worn out at all and my breath wasn’t even struggling.

There’s some annoying people taking selfies on the bridge but most of them stayed to the side or even hit the pedestrian part of the bridge. I don’t care if people take selfies but its just way too tight on the Golden Gate to do it. I think the SF Marathon should divert people that want to take selfies to the pedestrian part of the bridge on the way out. Everyone could live in harmony that way. Just a quick notice if you run it there’s lots to pay attention to on the Golden Gate because it’s so tight.

After mile 10 it set in for me I was no longer on an amusement park run with great scenery and I was running a marathon. It’s still scenic at mile 10 but the adrenaline definitely slows down as coming off the Golden Gate there’s a pretty long climb in the Presidio that’s not as steep as the others but its long and foreshadows what a good portion of the remaining course will be like for the marathoners. Coming off the climb is a really nice decline with the Pacific Ocean to the right which once again was just beautiful.

At about mile 11 you come down a decline from the Presidio with the ocean on your right to a very San Fran type neighborhood. There’s a pretty steady climb for a couple miles into Golden Gate Park but I was still running on adrenaline and there would be some plateaus and declines so those hills really didn’t bother me. This was the first neighborhood so it was a decent change of scenery and pretty cool.

At about Mile 12.5 you enter into Golden Gate Park. Golden Gate Park is BEAUTIFUL to visit and awesome when you first come into it. However, it would fell like my prison after a while. I hit Mile 13 right under a 9:00 pace and everything felt great. It was a little warmer than I would have liked but the lungs felt great and the sun was nowhere to be found. I remember being so thankful it looked like the sun would stay hidden until the end of the race. I hate full sun when I’m running. The park was beautiful for the first couple of miles to about mile 14.5 and then for me everything would change.

What I didn’t realize was happening is that I was on a STEADY ~2-3 mile climb that wasn’t steep at all but just never a flat spot or decline to let my lungs catch up. Legs were hurting just a bit but the lungs were slowly starting to work a lot more to keep my 9:00 pace I was still on. I was unaware the toll this slow climb would have on me. The photos I posted on FB are in chronological order and it’s not hard to tell which photos were taken during this stretch. The pain is all over my face and it HURT.

At about Mile 16 I wanted the hell out of the park. Honestly. There was nothing around. No spectators for the most part, no encouragement, and worst of all there seemed to be missing mile markers. I had no clue where I was on the course and was making a steady climb. It was MISERABLE. I’m very claustrophobic and it really felt like the forest was closing around me. I was still on my 9:00 pace and doing fine but honestly mentally I was breaking down because I felt lost and didn’t know where I was. I had my run tracker on my phone letting me know where but it still felt like prison because I didn’t know really where I was and didn’t know when I was getting out.

The park kind of levels out almost at the 18 mile mark so I did have a chance to recover some. However, I was working pretty hard at that point after climbing ever so slightly for most of 5 miles. I chatted briefly with an Aggie girl who was class of ’09 and from Fort Worth of all places on a level part and got some enthusiasm there. I was still on my 9:00 pace but I was struggling. Those pictures show just how much.

The end of the park is at Mile 19 and the cruelest of all things happens. You go through a tunnel and up a short but fairly steep incline into Haight Ashbury. I hit the incline into Haight Ashbury and the full sun hit me and I looked ahead and saw more inclines. Wasn’t steep at all but man I was worn out. At Mile 19 and still on my 9:00 pace and out of the park I let the monkey get me. I walked for the first time the entire race. There was no marine breeze like SF normally has and it was hot. Probably in the mid 70s about that time.

On my long runs I was able to walk for about 5 minutes to catch my breath and then re-start at a slower pace to recover before getting close to my desired pace. That’s what I was hoping for but I just couldn’t do it. My lungs were done. Legs were barking but the lungs couldn’t make a go of it. It was just too hot for me to keep any decent pace but I kept trying. For the remaining 7.2 miles I would walk and run. Probably an equal mix between the two. Every time I ran I was trying to get back to my 9:00 pace but I just couldn’t hold it.

Those last 7.2 miles aren’t bad at all as there’s not a lot of climbing and a LOT of downhill running. I was hoping the downhills would let me recover but honestly I was doing just as much work going down the hills and my lungs couldn’t do it. You spend most of the time after the park running through the city which is pretty cool. Lots of energy and encouragement through that part but I just couldn’t muster the energy to get back to my 9:00 pace and hold it. And to be honest when I knew I wasn’t breaking 4 hours I didn’t really want to push as my back started cramping at times and I really felt like I was fighting dehydration. I didn’t realize how much I sweated out on the course and those little cups of water they give you just weren’t enough for me looking back.

I did hit a slow steady pace for the last 1.2 miles to bring it in where I wasn’t walking. Since that was my first marathon, the last .2 miles is the LONGEST distance I’ve ever run in my life. Seriously, placing a mile marker at 26 is the CRUELEST thing ever in my book. I hit Mile 26 and thought, “Are you kidding me??? I really have to run the .2 miles??? Can’t we just call it good???” So cruel.

Even though I struggled the last 7.2 miles, hitting the finish felt like an amazing accomplishment and a huge sense of relief. 26.2 miles covered over 4:16:27. Pretty damn awesome to put the body through that and not pass out. Especially on that course with those hills and views. It was amazingly hot at the end and probably in the low 80s. I was fighting dehydration pretty bad I think as I was getting dizzy and my lips were tingling. So I grabbed two big waters and found some shade where I sat for 15 minutes. Felt back to normal mentally so I hit the beer garden and camped out for a good hour talking with other runners about their experience. Many of them echoed my sentiment about the park being the worst part for the steady climb, missing mile markers, and the last incline out of the park was really tough.

If you asked me in the first hour after I was done if I would ever run another the answer would be, “HELL NO!!!!!” My plan all along was to run this one and call it good. However, being so close to breaking 4 hours coupled with the difficulty of the hills and heat and I’m thinking sub 4 hours is in me on another course. I want to make a go for it. I have my eye on the Cowtown at the end of March. Would be cool to do it in a town I also love but I have to get through football season and see if I can get in the training groove again. No serious cardio training during football season as I focus on a strict workout of 12 oz curls and protein loading.

For those of you that have never done any distance (including a 5K) I encourage you to do it. I used to make all the excuses I wasn’t built for a marathon and could never do it. However it’s all a mind over matter. That’s one of the funniest things about all of this. I can’t tell you the number of people in the last 6 months that have said to me, “You’re running (ran) a marathon? No offense, but you don’t look like a marathoner?” Uh, is that a compliment of some kind??? Either way it’s an awesome accomplishment and if you have a distance you’d like to do I assure you that you can do it. GO FOR IT!!!!

Thanks for reading and feel free to hit me up with any questions.