The Game:

Marcel Reed started the game in perfect Marcel Reed fashion.  On his second and third passes, he threw two interceptions—one for a pick-six that put the Aggies behind the Tide.

For reasons beyond any normal person’s thinking, Mike Elko stuck with Reed.

It worked, as the Aggies scored touchdowns on their next two drives.  They moved the ball on the ground for most of those drives, but Reed had some great passes.

From my analysis, all of Reed’s completions were passes he ripped right away and didn’t read the defense after snapping.  He either read the defense pre-snap or had already decided where he was going.  As soon as he received the snap, he was loaded up and throwing strikes.  It’s how Reed works best.

He can deliver strikes as long as he doesn’t have to think or escape pressure.

Unfortunately, that would be the only Aggie touchdowns on the day.

We would go into the half tied 17-17, with a level of hope that the Aggies could pull it off.

We’d gain a little more hope with a field goal on the opening drive of the second half to take a 20-17 lead.

All that hope would end on the next possession: the infamous 4th-down snafu. It was a perfect exhibition of 4th-down issues on offense under Mike Elko’s tenure at A&M. I’ll get into that in more detail later, but I want to cover a few other points about the game.

Far and away, the most positive thing about this team is the defensive front.  They’re not perfect and have issues from time to time, but they’re physical.  They can flat-out dominate an offensive line.  If Elko and his staff could figure out how to build off of that, we could really have something.

When I say build, I mean bring pressure beyond those four.  When we did it, it was mostly effective.  When we didn’t, we got torched.  I’m not sure why Elko feels the need to mask our coverage issues by dropping more people in coverage who can’t actually cover.

It’s fascinating: the more people we drop in coverage, the worse we cover because we either blow our zone assignments or get in each other’s way.

All we’re doing is giving the quarterback time to wait on us to make mistakes in coverage.  It’s maddening and fascinating all at the same time.

On the other side of the ball, the Aggie offensive line has a lot to be desired.  They’ve gotten better, but they still make way too many mistakes.  Those mistakes include missed assignments, false starts, and holding calls.

We ran one screen in the game that was beautifully set up.  Reed hit the running back with a nice touch pass.  There weren’t many Bama defenders in the area, but we had two offensive linemen leading for the running back.  They both just stood there and whiffed on the Bama defenders coming in to make the play.

It could’ve been an easy 20-25 yards, but I think we got eight yards because our offensive linemen were so clueless about who to block.

I can’t count how many times our offensive linemen go out into space and absolutely whiff on a block.

Speaking of running backs, KJ Edwards looked awesome in the first half.  He’s a big reason we scored touchdowns on those first two drives after the interceptions.  Somewhere along the way, he got dinged up and only carried the ball twice in the second half.

I hope I’m wrong, but he’s starting to get a little bit of a LeVeon Moss feel where he can’t stay healthy for an entire game.

The worst part of this game was Bama exposing yet another issue with our coverage: our linebackers.  We already knew our safeties can’t cover, but Bama took it up another notch and exposed our ‘linebackers’ inability to cover.

Both of their touchdowns came on plays where their tight ends had our linebackers completely lost in coverage.

Alabama went after our linebackers and nickel backs 17 times in the game.  They completed 16 passes for 261 yards.  That created 12 first downs and three touchdowns.

The rest of the secondary was targeted 9 times but only had 3 completions.  They got 50 yards, two first downs, zero touchdowns, and one interception.

If I’m an offensive coordinator for South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, or Texas, I’m DEFINITELY taking note.

This game was basically the Kentucky game all over again.  We were close at halftime.  We couldn’t do anything offensively in the second half, and our defense just finally busted.

It was nice to be competitive for almost three quarters, but it’s super frustrating to keep faltering when it matters most.

4th Down Snafu:

We all watched the 4th-and-1 where the offense looked totally confused.  Then the ball was snapped, resulting in a fumble that Bama recovered.  It doesn’t really matter that they recovered the fumble, since Bama was getting the ball regardless of what happened after the snap.

The Aggies weren’t getting a first down.

After the game, Elko said it was a play designed to draw the defense offsides.  The center should have never snapped the ball.

However, if you go back and watch the play, the right side of the line also fires off when the ball was snapped.  It wasn’t just the center moving.  Two other guys appear to move on sound and not sight.

We’ll never know what was really supposed to happen on the play, but it’s the perfect illustration of Elko’s issues on 4th down in his time at Texas A&M.

We absolutely can’t execute on fourth downs.  Why? I have no idea, but we haven’t been effective at all at converting fourth downs in Elko’s time at A&M.

Sure, there have been some fourth-down conversions, so it’s not total futility, but there have been several fourth downs where the offense never stood a chance of converting, especially in key moments of games.  We have a chance to seize momentum but wind up giving it to the opponent.

The most frustrating part of 4th-down decisions is the supposed use of analytics.  Analytics is simply the mathematical probability of a potential conversion based on a large data input.  Analytics has no idea in that moment what the real probability is for a specific offense against that specific defense.  Analytics is not watching the game and has no feel for what’s going on.

Head coaches are supposed to make that decision.

I feel like Elko decides based on analytics but has no idea whether his offense can get the first down.

I have no problem with his decision to try and draw the defense offsides there.  However, how can part of his offense think they’re running a play while the other part thinks otherwise?  It’s the eighth game of the year, and they’re not synced up?

Elko seems utterly clueless about his offense’s issues converting a fourth-down attempt.  We can’t even fool the defense and still end up shooting ourselves in the foot.

After the games, when asked about those decisions, he has no answer other than throwing a player under the bus.

It’s frustrating watching our offense fail time and time again attempting a fourth down, only to see Elko have no answer, like it’s not his fault the same thing happens over and over again.

It’s his job to make the decision (which all he is doing is using some analytic chart).  It’s apparently not part of his job to execute the decision.

The Decision to Punt:

By far THE worst decision of the day was when Elko elected to punt on 4th and 6.

We were down 11 points with a little under four minutes left.

I get we were on our own 22-yard line, but not giving your offense a chance to convert that 4th and 6 is criminal.

After the game, he said he didn’t believe the offense could convert six yards.

His lack of confidence in his offense in that moment is one thing, but here’s the real thing – YOU HAVE TO GIVE YOUR OFFENSE A CHANCE TO CONVERT IN THAT MOMENT.  GIVING THE BALL BACK VIA TURNOVER ON DOWNS OR A PUNT WILL HAVE THE SAME RESULT, WHICH IS A LOSS!!!!!

PUNTING THERE ENSURES THE LOSS!!!!

I can’t fathom how he thought that was a good decision.  I do get there’s a chance your defense could hold, but all Bama is going to do is drain the clock and make you burn timeouts.

It’s going to make your offense’s job even more difficult to score 11 points.  And you just said in that moment you didn’t have confidence in your offense to get six yards when it mattered most.  So you’re going to make your offense’s job of scoring 11 points even more difficult?

Your actions and words just threw your entire offense under the bus: the players you recruited and the staff you hired.

What kind of head coach publicly states he doesn’t have confidence in his offense and then takes the ball away from them???

What does that say about Elko as a head coach?  I get wondering if your offense can convert it, but you have to give them the chance.

That punt decision should be a massive concern for anyone wondering about Elko’s acumen as a head coach.

Reed is our Best Chance to Win Games (Allegedly):

After the Bama game, when asked about continuing to play Reed, Mike Elko said this: “I still believe he’s our best option, so that’s kind of where that’s at.”

HELLO MIKE ELKO!!!!!  WE ARE NOT WINNING FOOTBALL GAMES WITH MARCEL REED AT QUARTERBACK!!!!!  WE ARE NOT WINNING!!!!!  HOW IS HE THE BEST OPTION???  AND WHERE IS WHAT AT???

I’ve been a marginal Reed defender simply because I think there is a way to win with his athleticism.  I also believe there are many more issues beyond Reed in this offense.  However, after eight games and seeing that this staff is not going to change how they use Reed, there’s no point in playing Reed anymore.

He can’t be the best option because we’re not winning games.  Sure, maybe a couple of times a game he can put drives together to score 20 points.

But in the modern-day SEC, with our defense, that won’t be enough.

We were competitive for a half against Kentucky and Alabama, but did nothing offensively in the second half.  Our offense did nothing against LSU and Missouri the whole game.  I mean, absolutely shut down the entire game.

Don’t even talk to me about Arizona State and Arkansas.  Those teams are well below us.

If your assessment after the Alabama game is that Marcel Reed is our best option at quarterback, you need to cut the whole quarterback room loose in the offseason.

If you truly believe that, whatever NIL money you’re paying to any quarterback on the Texas A&M roster is literally being set on fire.

WE ARE NOT WINNING FOOTBALL GAMES WITH MARCEL REED AS OUR QUARTERBACK!!!!

My brain truly can’t process you saying he’s the best option and then you take the ball away from him late in the game.

Marcel Reed is 2-7 in SEC games as the named starter without KC Concepcion.  Despite LSU’s best efforts, we’re not getting KC Concepcion back from the NFL.

I’m hoping that comment was coachspeak after a loss, and we see Brady Hart for the rest of the season.

I’m not even saying Brady Hart will win us any games.  I’m just saying it’s a massive mistake not to find out what Brady Hart can do right now.

We know what Marcel can’t do.  After all, Elko wouldn’t have taken the ball from him if he truly felt differently.

If Elko starts Reed against South Carolina, we’ll know he’s not a serious head coach.

I don’t care “where that’s at”, Mike.  Reed is done at Texas A&M.  Try something else.

Our Reality:

So here we are at 4-4.

We have South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Texas left on the schedule.

I’m not being overdramatic when I say I don’t really see another win on our schedule if nothing changes.

South Carolina is a much better team than their record indicates.  I have a feeling Kendrall Briles will have his way with our defense, especially with so much film out there.

Tennessee has its offensive challenges, but Jim Knowles will likely have his way with Holman Wiggins no matter who’s under center.  At least with Hart there would be a chance.

Oklahoma seems like the most likely chance at a win, but I think they’ll be similar to Tennessee.  Their defense will shut our offense down, and their offense will attack our defensive weaknesses to score more points than us.  It’ll be ugly for most of the game and set modern college football back by a century.

As for Texas, I know they have issues, but they’re still a decent enough football team when they don’t turn the ball over.  Sark has had Elko’s number, and I don’t see this year being any different.

I think the most likely outcome is Elko finds one win in there, and we wind up at 5-7 on the season.  Right on the cusp of bowl eligibility.  We might actually go bowling if not enough teams win six games.

I’ve brought this data up before about his SEC record, but let’s say Elko goes 1-3 the rest of the way.

Here’s what his SEC numbers will look like while at Texas A&M:

With a favorable schedule and KC Concepcion: 7-1

Without those two things: 7-10

He will be well below .500 in the SEC without that 2025 schedule and a dynamic offensive player.  Even with those, he’ll be 14-11, so not too far above .500.

If he doesn’t win another game, he’ll be 13-12 in the SEC, so basically a .500 coach through three seasons.

I know a lot of people think Elko is a great head coach and will turn it around.  I don’t know if I can see it based solely on his head-coaching track record.

His time at Duke is debatable because Manny Diaz is having the same level of success, if not better.

His time at A&M is looking worse and worse as the 2026 season wears on.  It’s the same thing we’ve seen since Fran – One outstanding season early in their tenure followed by a bunch of disappointing seasons.  Wash, rinse, and repeat.

Fran, Sherman, Sumlin, Jimbo, and now Elko.

I’ve often thought Elko was a Wade Phillips type of coach: an excellent defensive coordinator but lacking as a head coach.

With Dave Aranda’s firing from Baylor, it hit me that Elko could basically be an Aranda as well.  Both had excellent second seasons but never came close to replicating that season.

Obviously, Elko isn’t going anywhere with his big contract extension, so we’ll see.

As a reminder, Elko’s buyout is $54 million after this season.  It would have been $15 million under the old deal.  Great job, Aggie leadership.

I hope I’m wrong, but as the data set gets bigger, it looks like we’re in the Aggie head coach cycle where nothing ever changes except the names and the amount of the contract extensions.

BTHO Bye Week

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