Short answer: Maybe.

More definitive answer: Marcel Reed absolutely has an interception problem.

Before I go any further, I want to say this: I like Marcel Reed. He’s a dynamic quarterback with a ton of physical ability.  He’s never going to do the things that Johnny Manziel did, but he can do a lot of great things.

He’s physically gifted.  He’s not some limited game manager just trying to keep the offense on the field.  He’s got escapability and an absolute cannon for an arm.  The physical tools are there.

His best trait as a quarterback is his pocket awareness.  His ability to sense pressure and move into space if it’s available is as good as it gets.  It’s a great building block.

However, he has to cut down on his interceptions if the Aggies have any hope of returning to the CFP.

I knew he threw a fair amount of interceptions, but I didn’t realize how bad it was until I started sifting through some stats.

I started my exercise to see how much K.C. Concepcion and Mario Craver meant to the Aggie offense last season.  I also wanted to see what LeVeon Moss meant from a touchdown standpoint.  

I’ll post that data at the end, but I want to focus on what I uncovered with Reed and his interceptions.

In conducting my analysis, I removed all games against non-Power 4 schools that Reed has played.  I wanted to see what Reed’s stats looked like against opponents that matter—no stat padding against cupcakes.

That set off the first alarm.

I knew Marcel Reed threw 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season.  That’s less than 50% of interceptions to touchdowns.  It’s right on the line, but it’s still slightly less.  The great Bill Parcells had a belief that you couldn’t win big games with a quarterback who had worse than a 50% interception-to-touchdown ratio.

So Marcel was right below Bill Parcells’ acceptable standards for a quarterback.

What I didn’t realize was that 10 of those touchdowns came against UTSA, Utah St, and Samford.

Strip out those 10 touchdowns, and now Reed has 15 touchdowns to 12 interceptions against Power 4 opponents.  That’s an 80% interception-to-touchdown ratio.  That’s not good at all.

I’ll compare that number to other quarterbacks later, but I want to keep going with Marcel and his interceptions.

That ratio surprised me, so I went back and looked at his 2024 numbers against Power 4 opponents.  In that season, he threw 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, right under the 50% ratio.

Four of those touchdowns came against Florida and Arkansas when he was filling in for the injured Conner Weigman.  Take those four touchdowns away, and he’s at 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions once taking over as the full-time starter.  That’s right around 70%.

I know it’s nitpicking to take away those four touchdowns against Florida and Arkansas, as he did start those games.  However, there’s something to be said for looking at someone’s stats when a defense is prepared for them.

So I’ll stick with 70% interception-to-touchdown ratio as the clear starter.

As I looked at the game-by-game stats, I noticed something additionally concerning.

Since taking on the clear starting role as Aggie quarterback, Marcel Reed has started in 14 games.  He’s thrown an interception in 12 of those games.  I’m not going to give a “WHOOP!” to that number 12 because that means he’s thrown an interception in 86% of his games against Power 4 opponents after becoming the clear starting quarterback for the Fightin’ Texas Aggie.

You can spin that however you want, but that number gives me a large amount of concern.

If you look at his 2025 games, he threw interceptions in 8 of his 10 games against Power 4 opponents, so even stripping away the 2024 data, he’s still at 80%.

I don’t know if Bill Parcells had a metric based on the percentage of games in which a quarterback threw an interception, but my feeble brain says throwing interceptions in 86% of your games is not good.

Combine that 86% with his 80% interception-to-touchdown ratio, and you have to be concerned.  If he were throwing five touchdowns a game, I wouldn’t be concerned that he’s thrown an interception in 86% of those starts.

He’s not throwing five touchdowns a game, though. He’s not even throwing four touchdowns a game.

He only threw three touchdowns in two games last season.  No four- or five-touchdown games through the air.  At least not against Power 4 opponents.

He’s above the 50% interception-to-touchdown ratio and throws an interception in every four of five games.  These are not good numbers.

At the end of the day, it’s about scoring points and limiting your opponents’ ability to score points.  These numbers indicate Marcel Reed isn’t throwing enough touchdowns and is giving opponents more opportunities to score.

2025 Interceptions:

Someone posted a video on Twitter of Reed’s 12 interceptions.  I watched all 12, and 11 were on Reed, not his receiver.

Even more concerning, four of his interceptions were thrown to defenders in the end zone.  We all know about the Miami interception that cost us an opportunity to go to overtime.

He also threw interceptions in the end zone against Florida, LSU, and South Carolina.  He also threw an interception at the goal line against Texas.

So five of his 12 interceptions cost his team a chance at points, as they were all in field goal range when the ball was snapped.

In watching all his interceptions, there wasn’t a clear pattern as to why.  On some, it was just a bad throw.  That was the Miami pass.  He just underthrew his receiver.

On others, it was a bad read, and he shouldn’t have thrown it, as no one was open or double-covered.  On others, it seems he just flat-out lost a defender who was standing there in zone coverage. Likely because he was so locked on his receiver from the snap.

There’s no clear pattern for the mistake he’s making when throwing these interceptions. That concerns me a bit because I believe one obvious pattern would be easier to correct.

Is There Any Hope???

Despite this analysis, there’s some hope for Marcel Reed.

My first hope is that Holmon Wiggins is our new offensive coordinator.  In his time at Bama, he was around high-level quarterback play.  I understand he wasn’t the actual OC, but I’m hoping he took away what good quarterback play is.

This chart shows you the interception-to-touchdown ratio of those Alabama quarterbacks when Wiggins was there.

Bryce Young won the Heisman in 2021, which is why it’s highlighted. 2020 Mac Jones won the National Championship with an absolute fleet of receivers. I also included 2024 Jalen Milroe, as that’s what things looked like after Saban and his crew were gone. Milroe regressed massively after Saban left.

I have no clue what kind of OC Holmon Wiggins is, but he’s at least been directly adjacent to high-level quarterback play during his time at Bama.

I do know I’d rather roll the dice on Wiggins as OC than bring in Collin Klein for a third season. Klein wasn’t a terrible OC, but he definitely had his limitations. I’m hoping we send Kansas State a big box of Tiff’s Treats at the end of the 2026 football season.

In addition to that Holmon Wiggins data, the Seattle Seahawks just won a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold.  Sure, Seattle won with mostly defense, but Darnold had a massive interception problem early in his NFL career.

Darnold had a 56% interception-to-touchdown ratio last season. That’s just above the 50% mark, but in his first four seasons, he had a 96% ratio.

If Sam Darnold can improve his ratio and win a Super Bowl, there’s no reason why Marcel Reed can’t as well. I’m not talking about a Super Bowl and Reed getting the Aggies back to the CFP.

I hope Mike Elko and every coach associated with Marcel Reed’s throwing are doing everything they can to bring that percentage down. The Aggies have got to get Reed to throw fewer interceptions to touchdowns.

If not, our 2026 schedule will cost us a game or two.  Reed can’t keep throwing interceptions as he has and expect the Aggies to get back to the CFP.

Elko’s Ride or Die:

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – Regardless of what happens with Marcel Reed this season, Mike Elko is taking a huge risk on him. In two consecutive seasons, Elko has had no backup for Reed. Sure, there are guys on the roster that can play the position, but none of them have any real experience.

If something were to happen to Reed, there is absolutely nothing behind him. Brady Hart is currently running second team, and he’s supposed to be a true freshman. He has a year of experience at A&M, but he’s 18 years old and will be 18 all season. Trevor Lawrence won a national championship as an 18-year-old, but I don’t think Brady Hart is Trevor Lawrence.

I get it’s tough to bring in a backup quarterback in this portal era, but Elko has chosen to just let things ride with Reed for two consecutive seasons now. There’s nobody at all pushing Reed or ready to jump in if Reed doesn’t improve.

We’ll have to wait to find out how smart Elko is.

You can stop reading right here, but if you want to nerd out and see a lot of random data, feel free to continue.

Here are the returning SEC starters for the 2026 season. These numbers reflect their stats against Power 4 opponents, as I wanted to compare apples to apples. I included Sam Leavitt’s Arizona State numbers just for reference.

As you can see, there’s a clear delineation between Stockton, Manning, and Chambliss. Reed is right there with Sellers and a bit better than Mateer, which surprised me. I didn’t realize Mateer was as bad last season in interceptions and touchdowns. I think it’s further proof that OU and A&M are on very similar trajectories.

The next group is a super random grouping. The last Aggie starter to have an interception problem was Ryan Tannehill. He got a little worse in his last season, but not much. Most people forget, or don’t realize, that his interception problem in the 2011 Texas game is why we have Johnny Manziel. Tannehill threw a Pick-six and then had another interception that led to a Texas field goal, so he gave them 10 points.

Without those 10 points, Texas wouldn’t have won that game, and Mike Sherman would have kept his job. The Lord works in mysterious ways.

I grouped Jayden Daniels here because I’ve always been hopeful that Marcel Reed could become a Jayden Daniels-type player. Daniels was never an interception machine, but he definitely made a massive leap in his final LSU season when he won the Heisman, which is why that season is highlighted.

Here’s the list of starting quarterbacks in the last two CFP Championships. With the exception of Fernando Mendoza, they weren’t exceptional in the interception-to-touchdown ratio department. Everyone other than Mendoza was in the 30% to 40% range.

So Reed doesn’t have to become truly elite in his ratio, but he definitely has to cut his interceptions. Or throw a lot more touchdowns.

Mendoza obviously won the Heisman in 2025, which is why he’s highlighted. I also put Mendoza and Beck’s previous season for reference. They both improved their ratio a lot while leading their teams to the CFP Championship.

Another somewhat random grouping: Joe Burrow and Caleb Williams, who also won the Heisman Trophy. Burrow made a pretty massive leap in touchdowns thrown while decreasing his interceptions by one. He basically quadrupled his touchdowns while keeping his interceptions the same. Just an insane leap. Obviously, he won the National Championship and the Heisman that 2019 season. Just an all-time season for a quarterback.

Caleb Williams didn’t improve his ratio by a ton but threw almost twice as many touchdowns as the season before.

Here are the other recent National Championship-winning quarterbacks that haven’t been referenced. McCarthy was real stingy with the ball thanks to his offensive line and running game. Bennett was pretty good but not elite, at around 24% in both of his two National Championship seasons. That’s what a smothering defense will do for you.

Final grouping of quarterbacks as it pertains to interceptions and touchdowns. These are all of the other 2025 CFP quarterbacks not already mentioned. The one exception is Josh Hoover. I included him because Curt Cignetti hand-picked him to start at Indiana in 2026. I remember Sonny Dykes throwing shade at Hoover about all of his interceptions. Cignetti responded that he didn’t care because he wouldn’t have that problem at Indiana. Say what you want about Cignetti, but he’s confident.

I didn’t include the non-Power 4 CFP participants because they were charity cases and didn’t belong. I’m only looking at Power 4 quarterbacks and their games against Power 4 opponents.

Nothing really interesting about their percentages, other than that they are all under 50%. Ty Simpson was elite at avoiding turnovers, but it didn’t matter against Indiana, as he was under constant pressure and threw for only 67 yards. But he didn’t turn the ball over.

Marcel Reed and John Mateer were the only Power 4 CFP participants to have over 50% interceptions-to-touchdowns on the season against Power 4 opponents. They were also the only two teams to host Power 4 opponents in the first round and lost. Kind of ironic, if you ask me.

Now back to pure Aggie content. All of these charts are against Power 4 opponents.

Here are Marcel Reed’s game logs for 2025 and 2024. I’ve discussed this, but feel free to take a look for yourself. His season completion attempts and yards per attempt are pretty close in 2024 and 2025.

Here are the team’s per-game offensive stats in 2025. I knew it in my head, but it’s amazing to see how our offense just fell off the map against Texas and Miami. Other than Auburn, we had no real issues getting in the end zone for the first eight Power 4 games on the schedule.

Was it coaching or talent? Or both? Hopefully Mike Elko did a deep dive to figure out why.

This is the chart I originally set out to analyze before I started looking at Reed’s interceptions in more detail. To no surprise, Concepcion and Craver accounted for over half of our receiving yards against Power 4 opponents. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – What does the 2025 Aggie Football season look like without those two transfers? Credit to Elko and his staff for identifying those guys and getting them to campus.

I also am not surprised that Concepcion accounted for 1/3 of our receiving touchdowns against Power 4 opponents. What I’m most surprised at is that Craver only had one touchdown while Bethel-Roman and Boerkircher outpaced him.

Craver didn’t catch a single touchdown after that remarkable touchdown catch against Notre Dame. I know he’s a small guy, but I thought he busted off a couple of long touchdown catches after Notre Dame. He had some big catches, which is obvious by his yards, but nothing to the end zone. That’s a bit concerning heading into the 2026 season.

In addition to Craver not catching a touchdown pass after Notre Dame, his receiving yards slowed down considerably. If you look at his receiving yards against Power 4 opponents, Craver got 30% in the Notre Dame game. He had 207 yards in that game and 681 yards in total against the other nine Power 4 games. That’s just north of 50 yards per game the rest of the way.

I’m a big fan of Mario Craver, but we’ll need more production from him in Power 4 games. Hopefully Wiggins has a plan to use him like Alabama did with Jaylen Waddle.

Terry Bussey is the talk of training camp, but he’s gonna have to take a massive leap as he didn’t do much at all in 2025. Just like in 2024.

Isiah Horton is a different type of receiver than Concepcion, but Concepcion is a lot to replace. I hope he’s up to the challenge, as we’re going to need him.

Here’s the running game breakdown by player.

The most surprising thing to me is how much Ruben Owens was part of the rushing offense. It makes sense because Moss missed half the season against Power 4 opponents, but it’s still interesting that Owens made up almost 1/3 of our rushing attack. I don’t know why I was expecting less.

I was also surprised to see Owens lead the team in yards per attempt. He didn’t seem that productive.

Reed checks in with about 20%, which is a bit more than Moss. Once again, Moss did all of this in half the games as everyone else. This stat sheet proves how valuable Moss was.

What’s also interesting from this stat sheet is how much E.J. Smith contributed in Moss’ absence. I railed on E.J. Smith in 2024, but I do think he was our best running back down the stretch in 2025. I think he should have gotten more carries. Especially near the goal line.

Another interesting thing about this stat sheet is how unproductive Jamarion Morrow was in 2025. He had the lowest yards per carry against Power 4 opponents. Morrow reminds me a lot of Bussey. Everyone raves about their ability and what they do in practice, but their production in games that matter is just not there.

Sure, it can change, but at some point, all this practice hype has to carry over into games.

That’s the end of my nerd analysis.

All I can say is I sure hope Wiggins and Reed can produce MUCH better than Klein and Reed when it matters most. That’s in November and December. I’m tired of Aggie Football teams stumbling when everything is on the line.

We need to actually finish like Mike Elko talks about. Because we haven’t done it in two seasons under his watch.