Thoughts from SMU

Before I get into what I saw on Sunday between SMU and A&M, a quick note on how I do this for the first timers.  I’m no expert but I watch enough football to know the general feel of the game along with strength and weaknesses.  I don’t take notes during the game and I dont watch DVRd or replays of the game. I might see highlights but that’s about it. I go completely from memory so that’s why I say I’m not an expert by any stretch. Also, my BAC fluctuates between games and affects my memory so some games I remember more and some games I remember less. It all depends on the pre-game tailgate!

Overall, the further I get away from the game, I feel MUCH better. During the game I kept trying to figure out how good SMU was. They looked like a La. Tech or SFA during the game but they’re MUCH better than that. This is a very good C-USA team and a C-USA in Houston beat UCLA on Saturday.  Maybe SMU misses a bowl game this year but there’s a strong chance they make one and maybe even win the C-USA so this is a very good team.  SMU’s offensive line has the most starts of any OLine in the country and their John Riggins look alike ran for over 1,000 yards last year. He’s actually a really good college RB because he’s strong and has really agile and quick feet.

Defensively they’re not as strong as their offense but they’re not terrible.  We’ll definitely be tested more on defense but this was a decent test.  They had some decent size on their line so it wasn’t like we just had a raw size advantage up front and just mauled them with no technique or ability.  They also did a decent job of tackling and flowing to the ball so they put in a solid defensive effort in my mind.  Overall this was a very good win and very good effort by the Aggies. I was concerned this was going to be a trap game because June Jones is a good coach and SMU has some talent and wouldn’t roll over like a typical road patsy.  46-14 is a great showing in your first game against a decent opponent.  This could be a very good Aggie football team.  It already is but they have to actually continue to do it on the field.  That’s the only thing that really matters.

 

 

OFFENSE – The offense was the hardest thing for me to analyze.  The reason I say that is because we were about as perfect as you get for a college offense.  No, we didn’t put up 60 points and break big play after big play but this offense is not built that way.  What we saw on Sunday night is EXACTLY how this is offense is built.  No huge runs or passes but plays that chew up positive yards on every down and sustain drives.  Looking at it during the game it’s kind of ho hum but looking back it was DAMN devastating.  Now, SMU is not a dominate defense by any stretch but they’re a decent test in the first game and the Aggie offense scored a 98 out of 100 in my mind.

QB – Ryan Tannehill didn’t pitch a perfect game but he did throw at minimum a complete game shutout if not a no hitter.  I’d have to watch film to see if it was a no hitter.  He ran the offense to perfection.  He made all the right decisions and trusted his receivers and OLine.  He wasn’t perfect passing but at the same time he made some pretty damn good passes and was almost perfect. No QB ever is perfect.  He threw Swope a couple balls across the middle that only Swope could catch.  His TD pass to Priloeau was one of the prettiest balls you can make it.  He hit Priloeau in stride while having to clear a couple underneath defenders while dropping it perfectly into Priloeau’s hands.  Just a perfect pass.  He looked great rolling out and finding the open guys as well.  I still contend in college there’s nothing more dangerous than a roll out QB that can make solid throws.  Tanny looks great doing this.

The two things that stood out to me most were his decision making.  He either made a quick decision or showed some patience waiting for guys to get open.  The thing that impressed me the most was his trust of the pocket.  He stood in there fearlessly and showed very good awareness of when it was breaking down to get rid of the ball.  He didn’t tuck too early or hold the ball too long.  Most of that is on the OLine for giving him time but it’s awesome to see Tanny has a solid pocket presence.  The reason Tanny didn’t pitch a perfect game is because he missed EZ on a quick post route where he was wide screaming open for a sure TD but Tanny went outside and short to Swope who was also open.  That’s just Tanny though.  He’s gonna lay up for the sure thing rather than go for broke.  Good news is he’ll let it fly rather than tuck and run which is important for a QB because unless you’re Vince Young, tucking and running isn’t the best option.

RB – From a running back standpoint all I can say is enjoy it while we can. If we don’t have the best 1-2 punch of RBs in the country I’d like to see that team.  Outside of Gray’s fumble that Fuller caught and Michael’s substitution error you couldn’t ask for much more. The other mistake was on the goal line in the 3rd quarter when Cyrus waited on the D lineman rather than go out to chop him and the Dlineman batted the ball down on 3rd down so we had to settle for a field goal.  That’s nit picky though as that’s tough on a RB to go out and meet a guy he’s giving up 100 pounds to.

While the RBs didn’t bust off any long TD runs what they did is get positive yards on virtually every carry.   What you notice about our RBs is patience on the hole and every step they take is forward once it develops.  There were only a couple of runs where they were forced to go down the line but even then stayed parallel to the line and always looking to cut up field rather than try and burn the corner which is tough to do.  Cyrus picked up right where he left off and most importantly Christine looked to have learned from Cyrus’ playing time when he got hurt.  Christine appeared more patient looking for the hole.  At times in the past he’s looked like a dog that just got let off the leash running into the back of the line as fast as possible.  Sunday night he looked like a guy that fully understands how to run behind our zone blocking scheme.  The other thing that looked different in Christine is that he used fewer spin moves and when he did he was spinning forward and not to the side.  Once again, always looking for positive yards with every step.  Let’s just hope I get to write a ho hum report of our backs every game because these guys are that good.

WR – Not many big pass plays other than the TD pass to Priloeau.  LOTS of possession routes and most importantly lots of catches.  It was really only Swope and Fuller that got any action.  Saw Fuller go down the field maybe twice and Swope worked outside and underneath all night.  Fuller ran a lot of stop routes in the 6-12 yard range along with catching a couple of quick outside passes.  We averaged 11 yards per reception with the longest being 32 yards on the Priloeau catch.  Not a lot to say about these guys as they weren’t necessarily game breakers but they appeared to be on the same page with Tanny all night long.  Its clear Swope and Fuller are the main targets which is just fine.  Don’t expect big yards out of these guys all season as that’s not how Sherm rolls with Tanny at QB but we should continue to see more possession routes and catches to sustain drives.  Fuller and Swope look perfect for what Sherman wants to do.

OL – In my pre-season piece I talked about the quality of the offensive line and these guys did not disappoint.  I’m sure there was once or twice when someone got through to apply pressure too soon but there were ZERO sacks and that’s all you can ask for from an offensive line.  Sure, some is on Tanny but the OLine worked well with their QB all night so that’s solid.  Most importantly I only remember one holding call on Pat Lewis I believe.  I don’t remember any false starts on the OLine either which is VERY impressive in the first game.  I think there was one false start on one of the receivers but not the line.  That’s pretty damn good for their first game.  Let’s hope it holds.  From a blocking standpoint they created seams for the RBs to squeeze through all night long and created solid pockets for Tanny to throw out of all night long.  Easier said than done but they did it well.

Now, I’m not sure how good the SMU defense is but I think their defense is pretty decent but not great so it was a really good effort.  The other thing that impressed me is the athleticism of our tackles.  A couple of times we ran Joeckel and Matthews on the same side and these guys move REALLY well for their size.  Simply amazing what two likely NFL first rounders will do for an offense.  Pat Lewis looks perfect at center and Shep Klinke is a big ol’ boy.  This is a real beefy line with some real athleticism so it’s going to be fun to watch this crew.  I can’t help but think this offensive line is just going to get better all season and we’re in for a real treat.  It all starts with the big uglies in the trenches and we look like we have some solid guys for us.

 

 

DEFENSE – Point wise we did tremendous.  This is a pretty damn good offense and we gave up 14 points through mainly 4 quarters of football.  We got one gifted interception and another off a tip on a great play by TFred.  Remember, their OLine has more starts than any other OLine in the country.  Sure, they might not be the most talented but they’ve got some talent and have worked together for a long time.  That’s usually the sign of a decent OLine.  Their running back is also pretty sneaky good.  He’s not nearly as plodding as he looks as he adjusts really well to a hole and didn’t just run straight ahead.  Oh, let’s compare him to another big white running back with the recent Toby Gerhardt.  Very similar as his feet were just outstanding.

Something I noticed that our best defensive plays were from our base defense.  DeRuyter channeled his inner Carl Torbush and got exotic from time to time.  That long run for SMU in the first quarter that almost resulted in a TD (turned over by replay) was done against a two man front.  It was 3rd and 8 but we ran a two man front.  When I saw the front I immediately turned to the guy next to me and said we’ve only got a two man front.  I’m assuming SMU noticed it to and likely audibled into that running play that was easy to execute because they pulled a couple OLineman and just clobbered our LBs and DBs.  I don’t recall seeing that front again the rest of the game.  We had some zone breakdowns but SMU ran a lot of crossing routes which are designed to confuse zones or lose man coverage because people get picked and confused.  I would put some of that on our defense but give some credit to SMU because they executed those crossing routes REALLY well at times.  At times though we were able to keep coverage which is what you want in your first game.  There are a couple areas of weakness on this defense which I’ll get to in a bit but they did their job in only giving up 14 points.  I’ll take that.

D LINE – I thought these guys did a tremendous job all night long.  They tied up a decent offensive line all night long and applied pressure at key points in the game.  Out of 8 sacks the DLine got credit for 6.5.  That’s impressive for a 3 man front but not necessarily good for our defense which I’ll get to in a bit.  TJE was about as dominant as we’ve seen from a 3-4 lineman in quite some time.  Dude was just a destructive force all night long.  I have no reason to think it won’t last all season.  Jonathan Mathis didn’t do much but he looked to be getting double teamed most of the night.  Eddie Brown got decent push and even the subs on the DLine looked really solid.  In a 3 man front you don’t expect a lot of domination but based on Sunday night this group looks really solid with a real playmaker in TJE.

LINEBACKER – All off season we questioned what the loss of Von Miller and Mike Hodges would do to the linebacking corps.  Well, if Sunday night is any indicator the initial prognosis is not good at all.  We were without Domantrae Moore so I’m hoping his return greatly helps us.  I’m also wondering if it’s time to break in more of these freshmen to immediate playing time.  I just didn’t see anything great out of the LB crew on Sunday night but they ran pretty much everyone out there.  I’m guessing to get film so maybe they settle on a couple guys on the inside after this game and get them experience and more coaching.

I really don’t like calling individuals out but I’ll do it if it’s warranted.  Cayleb Russell had a less than stellar game based on all the off season reports.  Dude might be one of the best athletes on the defense but if you’re lost assignment wise or have no technique it does you no good.  This guy seemed lost all night long.  He was handled single handedly all night long on the edge.  He has two moves of getting around the edge or power rush.  Problem is he doesn’t have Von’s explosiveness or his ability to cut back inside to fool the blocker.  He also doesn’t have Moore’s football strength and technique to overpower a blocker.  Plus, there were a couple of times where he was running free on the backside and just missed the RB because he didn’t know how to close.  I watched him quite a bit because the off season reports had him as a suitable replacement for Von.  You don’t expect anyone to be Von but even 70% wouldn’t be bad.  I hate calling him out but what I saw on Sunday night wasn’t even maybe 50%.  He’s still learning to play defense I know but it’s his senior year and if he’s going to start he needs to learn some things quickly.  I honestly think Moore comes back with a clear head and assumes that spot very quickly.  I think Sherm was just trying to teach Moore a lesson and give Russell a chance.  Lessons learned so let’s move on.

Sean Porter is probably our best linebacker right now and while he’s very solid he’s not spectacular.  His problem is we got spoiled by Von on the outside last year so everyone has to measure up to Von.  It’s not fair but if we’re going to be great these guys have to get near Von level.  I do like the combo of TJE and Porter on the same side as it’s clear it’ll be the most disruptive side of the line.  That will be a huge boost to DeRuyter to know that side of the line can handle more and offenses might run away from it.

I have no idea what to think on the inside.  No one stood out at all.  They ran guys out there all night so maybe no one got comfortable with calls and keys but no one separated themselves in the middle.  I think it’s clear Garrick is one of the best two so he might as well start getting reps and find out quickly who is going to stand next to him manning the middle.  ILB is clear to me the weakest part of the defense and it’s going to allow teams to gash runs much like what SMU did on Sunday night.  Good news is that we’re in a pass happy league but if someone will commit to running up the middle on us they can find success.  Someone needs to tell Dalton Santos we’re going to the SEC and show him this film as he might be able to start as a true freshman next year if he’ll change his commitment from Tennessee to the Aggies.  Let’s just hope Dat and DeRuyter find their Michael Hodges quickly.  I know I just bagged on him but I wouldn’t be hesitant to move Russell inside if he can follow ILB assignments that are willing to attack the line and free Williams to make tackles based on reads.  It wouldn’t hurt based on what I saw our ILBs do on Sunday night.  Russell is athletic but there’s a lot more read and reacting on the outside than just being a down field ILB taking on OLineman all night long and it might suit Russell better.

DBs – While there were a few brain farts in zone coverage due to crossing routes I thought this unit did a pretty decent job as a whole.  Coryell Judie is by far our best cover corner.  SMU didn’t allow it very much because they didn’t run many routes straight up the field but when they did Judie stuck with them very well.  He should come in handy against some of the better WRs in the B12.  Terrance Frederick also had a solid game basically as the slot corner.  He did blitz a lot and did decent but SMU was also really responsive to his blitz hitting the quick outside passes because our safeties and LBs were late to cover his man.  I would have to look at the film but it seemed like a lot of their big pass plays came off a TFred blitz so that might be a big factor as to why they got yards due to our LBs and safeties being slow/confused on who to cover.  If so, let’s hope DeRuyter can get that cleaned up.  Dustin Harris looked solid at corner but they didn’t really test him deep that much and kept everything short for the most part.  Each of our safeties got an interception with one being a gift and the other being a tipped ball but you’ll take them because at least they were paying attention to the ball.  I thought both safeties did pretty well but not spectacular.  I still worry about Trent Hunter as a cover guy but Campbell is a physical beast that if he can stay healthy will help Hunter out.  Hunter is just so heady that we probably don’t have a better safety than him right now so I’m fine with him being out there.

Overall, looking back this was about the effort we can expect week to week.  Great DLine play although there’s only three of them, solid DB play, and questionable LB play.  I would say along the DLine we’re much better than last season and DB wise a little better.  If Moore can be 60% of Von and DeRuyter can find someone to be 80% of Hodges then this could be a really solid defense.  Not a lights out Wrecking Crew defense but easily Top 40 and maybe even Top 30.  Finding Hodges replacement worries me more than any other position on the field and it’s going to be our Achilles heel for good teams if we don’t find it.

 

SPECIAL TEAMS – This is really hard to judge as we had two extra points blocked due to terrible blocking.  I heard recently that guy has blocked 16 kicks in his career so he sounds like he’s got some good technique but a good special teams coach identifies that strength and prepares for it.  We obviously weren’t.  You hope that can get cleaned up and it should.  Bullock did make his two field goal attempts which is good to see and looked fine kicking off.  I think we had two punts which looked better than last year so you’ll take that.  Kick return was decent but we only had three chances which is what you like to see.  There was nothing impressive on punt return other than a muffed fair catch that we luckily were able to jump on.  Punt return for this team just makes me nervous as hell.  I don’t know if our guys get nervous but put someone back there that will catch the ball above everything else.

 

SUMMARY  – Very good first game by the Aggies.  They have a few things they need to clean up coverage wise and need to find someone to play opposite Garrick Williams inside but we’ve had much worse opening games.  As evident by some team’s first game against a “lesser” opponent, a win is not always a given but we took it to SMU.  Defensively as fans we have to pay attention to the score and not plays given up or yards amassed against us.  The other thing about our defense that I didn’t mention is we seemed to adjust in the second half.  That’s just a sign of good coaching and DeRuyter has proven he can distill the first half pretty quickly and make second half adjustments.  Offensively you can’t ask for much better but we’ll definitely play better defenses.  Based on this game there’s a lot of good things to look forward to for the 2011Fightin’ Texas Aggie football season.   Let’s just hope this is not a blip and a solid indicator.

As for the next game against the Vandals of Idaho I fully expect a bigger pounding with Cyrus and Christine busting off some long runs along with Fuller getting him a long TD.  I’m going to call 56-10.

And Baylor and their lawsuit threat can pound sand for all I care.

2011 Fightin’ Texas Aggie Season Prediction

I’ve been trying to resist getting caught up in the blowhard’s pre-season predictions because to be quite honest I don’t care about pre-season predictions and talk.  I only care about the end of the season.  Well, here we sit on the Monday of game week and I can’t focus on work because I’m looking forward to 10:00 a.m. on Saturday morning when I roll out of Cowtown with the new travel trailer in tow for opening weekend in Aggieland.  I’ve got a pretty good “weekend” planned.  I’ll be dove hunting on Thursday, Baylor/TCU on Friday, and then Aggieland for the rest of the weekend.  The only downfall is class is in session on Monday so PTTS says I have to be out of the RV lot by 7:00 a.m. on Monday morning.  I never really had anything against PTTS but they’ll be getting the angry shaking fist as I roll out Monday morning with cobwebs in my head.

Since I can’t focus on work I decided I’d take a stab at predicting the 2011 season for the Fightin’ Texas Aggies.  I figure my opinion is worth as much as anyone else’s because it’s all guesswork at this point.  For you first timers on this list I used to blog my thoughts on each game but quit last year.  I took a new job the first of September and lost my train commute which is where I would do the write ups.  I’ve been asked to do it again so I’ll be opining after each game this season if you’re interested.

Before I get to my prediction of each game, I want to touch on each facet of the team.

OFFENSE – I don’t think this offense is as loaded as people think.  When I say loaded I’m talking about an offense that just torches teams for over 500 yards a game and 40 points.  This is a VERY good offense but Tanny is a game manager and not a playmaker.  That’s not a bad thing at all but don’t expect Tanny to light it up deep very often.  This offense is built to keep the defense guessing either by pounding the ball or quick read passes/play actions.  The center piece is clearly the backfield of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael.  Cyrus is perfect for the blocking scheme and Christine is just a home run hitter.  The line is still developing with youth but the interior guys are better at displacing lineman than pass blocking so you’ll see a lot of runs up the middle.  Not saying we can’t pass block but it’s pretty clear our guys are better at zone blocking which is fine.  Our receivers are VERY solid but Tanny is just not a big arm QB.  Not trying to knock him as he’ll be VERY good when it’s all said and done but don’t expect him to be firing downfield like a Ryan Mallett.  He’s not going to be on stage in New York for the Heisman so don’t expect it.  I’d rather win games than put up yards and lose because you’re playing behind so just sit tight during games and know the outcome should be just fine.  The offense will keep us close in the first half but should start to pull away in the second half in most games.

DEFENSE – On defense I think we’ll be less aggressive.  Much of it will be due to the loss of Von but I think our LBs are the most questionable part of our defense.  I think Coach D will be less aggressive between the 20s leaving his LBs in positions to slow down the offense and not necessarily make plays.  When you miss on trying to make a play the results are usually good for the offense.  I think he’ll definitely dial it up from time to time but I think he’s going to be careful unless a true playmaker really emerges.  The most experience and talent is clearly in the DL and secondary.  I don’t think any of them are All-Americans except for maybe Coryell Judie but they’re all solid players with a year’s worth of experience in Coach D’s scheme.  I don’t know that this defense will be as good as it was in the last six games but I don’t think it falls off very much at all.  It’ll just be more consistent rather than aggressive.  With our offense I’m just fine with that.  I think our offense and defense will compliment each other very well.

SPECIAL TEAMS – The ghost of Frank Beamer weeps every time he watches the Aggies on special teams.  For various reasons we’ve just really sucked on special teams for what seems like 10 years.  Not sure this year will be any different.  I think we’ll be fine in the field goal department with Randy Bullock back for his 12th season and Judie should be just fine on kickoff returns.  I have no idea if we’ll have a serviceable punter but I know for CERTAIN it’ll be better than last year.  It can’t get any worse.  Any of you reading this could punt and not do worse.  As for punt returns just pray we hold onto the ball and worry about yards second.

Here’s how I think the games shake out:

 

SMU – I know Mike Sherman got a rude awakening against Arkie State his first season and I PRAY that never happens again.  I don’t think it happens here.  SMU is a MUCH better team than most people think but I don’t think SMU has the ponies (damn right pun intended) to keep up with A&M’s horsepower.  SMU will score some points as DeRuyter teaches some youngsters his defense but the Aggie offense will roll.  I think we go up at halftime 21-14 causing Aggies everywhere to want to jump off the third deck.  SMU will score very quickly due to June Jones spotting something in film and then score another TD on a defensive brain fart sometime in the 2nd quarter.  Offensively Sherman will try to work all facets of the game and we’ll have a couple drives stall out.  Pass/Run will be 50/50 as he lets Tanny work on his passes and hopefully learning to hit Jeff Fuller deep which is Tanny’s glaring weakness.  Tanny is going to have to show on film he can hit Fuller deep or good teams will play Fuller man on man tempting him to throw deep and cheat safeties to cut off all those underneath crossing routes that Tanny and Sherm love.  At least that’s what a smart DC will do.  In the first half I expect Tanny to hit Fuller deep, hit Swopes in the slot, and then have Cyrus bust off a 20 yarder.  In the second half Coach D will make adjustments and June Jones will be out of tricks so they might score 1-2 more touchdowns in the 4th quarter when the second stringers are in.  Offensively Sherm leans much more heavily to the run and we score another 3-4 touchdowns walking away with an easy victory.  Score – Aggies 45, Mustangs, 24.  The other score is PTTS 1, Chewy 0 due to the 7:00 a.m. exit time.  Come on Loftin, call a snow day and let me sleep in.

 

IDAHO – I honestly don’t know much about the Vandals other than they play in a big ass gym.  Seriously.  It’s like the Alamodome had relations with the McFerrin Facility and produced some half field house half Alamodome structure of amazement.  Think I’m joking, check this thing out.  It’s unreal – http://www.govandals.com//pdf4/414253.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=17100  I also know that the Vandals (reminds me of my youth)  have improved over the recent few years where they get some mention from time to time for having a decent record but I also know they haven’t upset anyone and tend to shy away from bigger games.  Think a Nuevo Wyoming if you will.  Boise trucked them in that whatever the hell it is venue last season so it’s pretty clear they just don’t have the talent of the better programs in college football.  I expect much of the same from the SMU game but a better defensive effort.  We’ll go into half 28-3 and pretty much replicate it in the second half.  Wish we had a better tune up game for Okie State but you take what Bill Byrne and Dan Beebe schedule.  Score – Aggies 55, Vandals 6.  This is also when I get back to owning PTTS because I can sleep late in the trailer and roll out of Dodge when the Gatorade and ibuprofen finally kicks in.

 

OKIE STATE – Third game of the year and the Pokies from Okie roll into town thanks to our new 9 game B12 schedule.  Wait, maybe I should say our ONLY 9 game B12 schedule.  Suck it Dan and DeLoss!  For some reason I’m not too nervous about this game.  OSU is ranked much like us hovering right around the Top 10 depending on the poll you look at.  It’s going to be a tough game no doubt but we know exactly what OSU is.  We’ve played them tough the last two seasons and legitimately should have beaten them last year.  Blame JJ all you want but the reality is we came out flat in the 3rd quarter on both sides of the ball and that’s the real reason we lost.  Turnovers hurt no doubt but if we don’t come out flat in the 3rd quarter those turnovers just don’t happen.  Because of that I think the Aggies win this game.  OSU has a suspect defense, lost their genius OC, and lost the very underrated Kendall Hunter.  I think Coach D brackets Blackmon and runs a few blitzes that get to Weeden to slow them down.  Offensively I wouldn’t be surprised to see a run/pass ratio of 70/30.  There’s no reason not to.  OSU can and will score points, so in an ode to the great R.C. Slocum, Sherm plays ball control offense just pounding the ground and controlling the clock.  If Sherm has appeared to have learned one thing in his past three years it’s that he can’t abandon the run game like he’s done a few times.  He’s got a seasoned line and two DAMN good backs so there’s no reason he shouldn’t lean on them and we win.  Score – Aggies 31, Pokes 17.

 

ARKANSAS – One of our new conference rivals.  Now all of a sudden the game in JerryWorld makes more sense but I don’t think it’s what Byrne had in mind back in the day.  Now this is a game that makes me nervous.  Real nervous.  It looks like Arkansas should be “worse” with the loss of Mallett and Kniles Davis but don’t let Bobby Petrino fool you.  Dude is an offensive mastermind.  Tyler Wilson is no slouch and I think he’ll actually be more productive than Mallett.  Mallett had all the talent in the world but much like gunslinging quarterbacks he made some costly mistakes in the 4th quarter in the Bama and Sugar Bowl costing his team a chance at a victory.  Mallett doesn’t make those mistakes and Arkie could be 12-1 with their only loss being to Auburn.  Speaking of the Auburn game, Tyler Wilson filled in admirably on the road and actually lead Arkie to a lead early in the 4th quarter over the eventual national champions.  Auburn just had too much but Wilson looked pretty good in a true baptism by fire.  Then again, Garrett Gilbert didn’t actually look all that bad as a non-experienced true freshman when he had to replace Colt McCoy in the national championship game and completely spit the bit last season.  Then again, Bobby Petrino certainly isn’t Greg Davis and Mack Brown.  I fully expect this to be a complete chess game that will be VERY close.  I think the difference is that Petrino will know when to take his shots and get them.  You’ll see a lot of ball control on both sides of the offense with neither coach wanting to make a mistake but for some reason I think Petrino will get a couple big scores.  Sherm is going to do what he should have done in the Cotton Bowl which is to lean on the running game so I think we’ll have a real punchers chance needing Cyrus and Christine to deliver a couple big blows.  We get those big blows and I think we win.  However, the beat down Aggie in me says Arkie gets them and we lose.  Score – Aggies 16, Arkie 20.

 

TEXAS TECH  – Our first true road game and at Tech no less.  For some reason I don’t worry about Tech under Sherman like I do with Fran and R.C.’s late years.  I love Tubbs as a head coach because the man can flat out recruit but his talent is still lacking.  I think Sherm comes in and just absolutely leans on Tech’s new 4-2-5 defense.  It won’t be a blow out by any stretch but I think A&M establishes their dominance early and often.  Coming off the Arkie game the Aggies will find the Red Raiders much less talented and like what Sherman is going to try and do all season is establish the run early and often.  No reason not to with the team he has assembled.  I think defensively we’ll be fine in this game as I don’t think Tech has near the offense they had under Leach.  I know that’s like saying water is wet but that’s a huge difference in our ability to compete.  Our offense leans on their defense hopefully getting up by a couple of scores and then all of a sudden Coach D knows they’re going to try and go through the air and has a cushion to blitz with.  They’ll get some yards but Coach D will really tighten up in the red zones limiting Tech to lots of field goal chances.  Score – Aggies 31, Tech 16.

 

BAYLOR – The final Battle of the Brazos?  Could be.  Make sure to keep your ticket stub and get a picture of you and your wife/girlfriend/mistress/buddy’s girlfriend/paid escort with the scoreboard in the background as a memento.  You’ll always want to remember where you where for the last installment.  I know I should be afraid of Baylor but for some reason I’m not this year.  We’re in Kyle and I think Sherm and Coach D really figured them out in the second half.  I think RGIII is a tremendous athlete but I think his late season performance showed what kind of QB he really is.  If you can get to him, it REALLY affects him.  Getting to him is easier said than done but I think we will.  Like Sherman will try and do all year I think he’ll lean on Baylor’s defense early and keep the game in control.  Griffin is going to get his but we’ll try to limit him as much as possible by keeping him on the bench.  I also can’t get the image of Baylor spitting the bit against Illinois in the Texas Bowl out of my mind.  Baylor got down early and they showed no resolve in wanting to get back in the game.  I love Phil Bennett as a DC and it’ll help Baylor in other games but I just really believe in our line and running backs.  Especially at home.  We establish a decent lead and hit Griffin a few times and we’ll cruise to victory.  I don’t think the scoreboard will reflect a true dominating effort but we’ll always feel in control of this one.  Score – Aggies 34, Baylor 24.

 

IOWA STATE – Uh, uh, uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, uh, uhhhhhhhhhh.  Not sure what to write other than to say it’s on the road and let’s not hope we have a letdown in this game.  It’s a definite trap game but what most people don’t realize or forget is that trap games tend to happen to passing teams and turnover prone teams.  Sometimes you just can’t get in rhythm through the air or the turnovers just go completely against you.  Now, ISU is a pretty decent team so I don’t think we blow them out and wouldn’t be shocked to see us go into halftime only up 14-10.  However, like most good running teams you just continue to lean on them and running gets easier in the second half.  If we lose I wouldn’t be shocked but I certainly would be really surprised.  Score – Aggies 35, Cyclones 16.

 

MIZZOU – I’ve always considered Gary Pinkel to be the more handsome, successful version of Dennis Franchione.  People talk really great about him because along the way he wins a big game here and there but can never string it together.  For some reason he’s also had REALLY talented quarterbacks.  I don’t think it’s anything he’s doing but with the likes of Brad Smith, Chase Daniels, and Blaine Gabbert it sure makes coaching a heck of a lot easier.  Pinkel looked like he was going to have a great season beating OU after destroying us at Kyle but then lost to Nebraska and Tech in back to back weeks and then capping the season off with a loss to Iowa in the Insight Bowl.  He gets to come back to Kyle and I don’t think Sherman will forget the embarrassment from the season before.  Once again, Sherman will stick to his script of run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball with success.  I know it sounds REALLY boring that we’re just going to run the ball down people’s throats but one thing Sherman has consistently said in his losses is that he regrets abandoning the run too soon.  Now, maybe my maroon tinted glasses are too maroon but I can’t help but thinking this line is going to be better and our running backs are studly so why do anything else.  Now, this assumes a healthy season which it’s hard to factor in with these predictions.  Like I said, Tannys is not a playmaker and is a game manager through and through which is just fine.  We’ll no doubt throw the ball to keep it mixed up but I fully expect to see run/pass ratios in the 60/40 range and even 70/30 range.  There’s no reason not to expect Sherman to commit to the ground game and be patient with it allowing it to do what it do which is keep the game fairly close in the first half and pull away in the second half.  I don’t think we’ll roll over Mizzou but you’ll see more of the same where we hold the ball at least 35 minutes and keep the Mizzou offense off the field.  Score – Aggies 31, Tigers 19.

 

OKLAHOMA – Bob Stoops has lost TWICE in Norman during his tenure.  TWICE.  Once to Les Miles and once to Gary Patterson.  Rick Perry has served more terms in the Governor’s Mansion than Bob Stoops has lost games in Norman.  Now, Mack Brown has never had to march into Norman so it’s skewed ever so slightly because even if Mack had pulled off one win a piece with a Vince or Colt team we’d be looking at FOUR.  Would that have really changed much?  Don’t think so.  Mack wasn’t winning in Norman with Chris Simms.  Quite simply put, OU is REALLY tough to win at home against.  I just don’t know if this A&M team is ready to take that step.  I’d like to think they can but damn the numbers say we can’t.  I do expect a close game and more of the same from Sherm where he’s going to try and lean on the OU defense on the ground and find some success.  I can’t help but think Ryan Broyles is going to have a REALLY solid game both through the air and on punt returns.  He’s probably the best overall player in the conference and something says he’s going to shine in this game.  We won’t be embarrassed by our performance but sometimes the best player on the field makes the difference and I just can’t help but see Broyles making a statement.  I think Landry Jones is a little overrated in the QB department but he’ll get the ball to Broyles enough and he’ll do the rest.  I could even see us going up 17-14 at halftime but at some point special teams will rear its ugly head and Broyles will capitalize.  Yes, I’m the beat down Aggie.  Score – Aggies 24, Sooners 28.  It’ll be close but it’s gonna hurt.

 

KANSAS STATE – So after a heartbreaking loss to the Sooners we have to get on a plane and visit the location of one of the most embarrassing losses in recent Aggie memory.  It sucks to have KSU thump you two years ago but when Bill Snyder makes his triumphant return to college football at the age of 105 you expect to win these games.  Especially since A&M for some reason always had Snyder’s number.  Two years ago we laid a serious steamer at Snyder’s self named stadium, field, fieldhouse, or whatever they named after the guy who might honestly be the most amazing coach in college football for what he did his first time through Manhattan.  However, I just see this time being different because Sherm can go back to his preferred formula of leaning on the defense and limiting the other teams offense.  Sherman will get back to basics after the OU loss and remind his team how they win football games in workman like fashion.  Plus, I can’t help but think there are enough guys that still remember the game two years ago and won’t let an ambush happen.  I think we win this game in convincing fashion.  Score – Aggies 35, Wildcats 17.

 

KANSAS – Like Iowa State I’m not sure what to write here.  I think just to keep his team interested Sherm goes to a more 50/50 mix and Coach D dials up some fresh blitzes.  This one could be a blood bath similar to last year’s game in Lawrence.  This should honestly be the easiest game on our schedule even though the boys will be tired.  Sure, it could be a trap/let down game but I just don’t see Kansas being any better than last year and being in Kyle will be a big help.  Hopefully many of the starters can rest in the 3rd quarter for the following week’s game.  Sure, the looking ahead factor could also be there but I just don’t see it.  This just appears to be the biggest gimme which is never a given but I just don’t see it turning out badly for us.  SCORE – Aggies 37, Jayhawks 10.

 

TEXAS – Now, here’s a trap game.  Big time trap game.  You know the old cliché of when rivals meet throw out the records.  I do expect Texas to be better than last year but the atmosphere at Kyle Field should be absolutely electric that night.  Make no mistake that if the season unfolds like it should this will be the Aggies game to lose and I just don’t see it happening.  Then again, in 1995 I didn’t expect Texas to beat A&M in our last matchup of the SWC at Kyle Field.  That game stung me big time seeing that damn big white flag with the horn logo being waved at Kyle Field in victory.  I think you’ll see more of the same in this game with Sherm leaning run.  There’s just no reason not to.  Texas is loaded with talent like always and I think by the time we face them they might have an offensive identity under their new OC.  I think that actually works in our favor as Coach D and staff will have plenty of film to look at and identify tendencies.  It’s also a short week on the road so Texas will be hard pressed to install many new wrinkles with so little time.  Defensively I find it interesting they can lose Muschamp and bring a virtually unknown in Manny Diaz to improve their defense over last year.  Sure, their team fully quit after the KSU game but Muschamp is a legit Top 5 DC and you’re just going to replace him and improve?  I just don’t see it.  I certainly don’t see this as being a blowout by any stretch but I think the Aggies should control this game unless special teams and turnovers rear their ugly heads which is always possible in these games.  Still, I think A&M is the better team at this point and should win.  Score Aggies 31, Texas 17.

 

There you have it, based on my glass globe the Aggies are going 10-2 and will place second in the B12 due to the OU loss.  It won’t be all bad as OU will lose to FSU and with one loss won’t make the BCS Championship game as they get jumped by a team that played a conference championship game.  This will make the B12 look like idiots for touting how not having the conference championship game is an easier path to the BCS game but you’ll have FSU with one loss winning the ACC, Arkansas winning the SEC with one loss, Wisconsin with one loss winning the B10, and Oregon with one loss winning the P12.  All four of those teams will have one more win than OU and will trump them for this BCS Championship game while OU and Dan Beebe scream, “Look at us!” but to no avail.  Stoops gets mad and OU goes West to the new P16.  Sure, it’s a dream but if we’re not going to win the BCS Championship game (and we’re not there yet) I want to see the B12 embarrassed for their incredible short sightedness in building a stable/competitive conference.

It won’t be all bad as OU will be forced to go to the Fiesta Bowl to play TCU or Boise while the Aggies head to the Sugar Bowl and beat the Georgia Bulldogs.  Arkansas will beat Wisconsin in the BCS Championship game and the SEC West will be reinforced as the toughest division in all the land which is where exactly the Aggies are heading.  As Ric Flair used to say, “To be the man you have to beat the man!”  Woooooooooooooooooooooo!  A dude can dream can’t he?

Gig ‘Em!

BTHO SMU!!!!!!!!

Oklahoma Game Thoughts

Before I get to this week’s write up I should first tell me about my trip to Soonerland.  10 of us took the AmTrak up from Fort Worth to Oklahoma City on Friday evening.  About 30 minutes into the trip we got our own private car for everyone’s sake because were congregating in the aisles.  I think they realized we were professional drinkers and it was best to separate us from Gen Pop.  If you’ve never taken an AmTrak I strongly recommend the journey from Fort Worth to OKC.  It’s about 4 hours long dumping you right off in Bricktown.  Get you a good group of people and make that trip.  Lots of fun.

 

Anyway, on Saturday we all loaded up in a 15 passenger van and made the short jaunt from OKC to Norman.  The end result of a loss was what I expected but how it played out was not what I expected.  I expected OU to simply grind it out and wear us down pulling away in the late 3rd quarter.  What happened was OU wound up pulling away in the 2nd quarter thanks to our mistakes.  This caused our group of 11 people (a few hard core Aggie fans) to agree that leaving after the band and finding a bar was a very reasonable course of action.  This is what we did.

 

I’m changing the format of how I write this up because the game was such a debacle.

 

1st Quarter:

We won the first quarter hands down from a performance standpoint.  We were moving the ball on the ground and hitting some passes here and there.  Christine fumbled and OU jumped on the board first which put us in a hole which had me worried but something similar happened in Lubbock so I thought we might be okay.  OU jumped out 14-0 off a nifty reverse by a great athlete but we clawed back to 14-10 and then all hell broke loose.

 

Offense:

  • I don’t know what to say.  I really don’t but I’ll try.
  • JJ had a bad game plain and simple.  Even early on when the offense was moving the ball he was missing short passes.  He had 2-3 plays where he could have hit his guys but missed.  After the 1st quarter he started running for his life and he just can’t pass like that.  He can scramble but he can’t throw running to his right.  He just can’t.
  • Something else I noticed about Jerrod was on two 3rd down plays in the first quarter he was scrambling up the field to the sideline but simply stepped out of bounds 3 yards from the stick.  He made no effort to get the first down.  3 yards is a long ways but at least break down and try to get up field.  He was completely avoiding contact there.  Maybe it’s for the best when your QB does that but when defenses start picking up on that they’ll give him running room on third and long only to force him out short of the stick.  A good DC picks up on that and tells his defense to watch for it.  When he runs, sell out to flush him out of bounds because he’ll avoid contact.
  • On the fumble JJ made no move for the loose ball and made no move to tackle the defender picking it up.  I understand the QB protecting himself but in instances like that you have to go for the ball and even make a play on the defender.  He just stood there not knowing what to do and not wanting to make contact.  Now, I think a QB has to be more careful than what McGee used to do but JJ should occasionally want to mix it up but he didn’t on Saturday night.  He’s great on shedding defenders in the pocket but I was kind of surprised to see him shying away from so much contact on Saturday night.
  • Cyrus made a few good cuts as did Christine.  I think they’re solid backs (Christine especially) but they can only do so much when it all falls apart.
  • The offensive line did a decent job of creating holes to move the ball in the 1st but that all fell apart when we had to play from behind because we can’t pass block.  OU pinned their ears back and the route was on.
  • Jeff Fuller made a fine TD catch.  He’s going to be a great pro.  He’s just a baller.
  • I saw Bradley Stephens make a couple decent runs in the 3rd quarter on TV at the bar but it’s hard to tell what was really going on.
  • We left the bar in the 4th so I don’t know what else happened.

 

Defense:

  • This is such a hard unit to gauge because they’re so different from the start of the game until the end of the game.  They ALWAYS start off strong but then falter in the end depending on offensive turnovers or ineptitude.
  • In OUs first six possessions our defense only gave up one TD and forced either a punt or interception.  That ain’t bad.
  • However, the next possessions were the complete opposite as OU scored TDs in the next five possessions and the defense didn’t force a punt or get a turnover the rest of the game.  I just don’t know what to say.  This defense is a like a person with low self-esteem.  You can talk them up and give them some confidence and they’ll do really good but when the bad stuff they’re used to surfaces again they go into their shell like a turtle.
  • Von Miller is not ready for the NFL.  If NFL talent evaluators watch him against NFL level tackles they’ll realize he needs more work.  He’s a freak but he’s only dominating against lesser opponents where his speed throws them off.  Not saying he won’t ever be great but it’s clear he needs another season to truly learn more moves as a pass rusher.  Now, if he thinks he’ll go in the first round then I don’t blame him for leaving.  It’s just clear he’s not ready for the next level right now.  He tried all night to run around Trent Williams and couldn’t get to Landry Jones.  When he did try and make a move on Williams, Williams wouldn’t bite.  You could tell Von was getting very frustrated because he’s not used to that.
  • We’re still much better against the pass than the run.  Not sure if that means anything as we’re not great against the pass but we’re better.
  • Our freshman LBs have hit a wall.
  • Garrick Williams is probably our best overall defender including Von.

 

Special Teams:

  • Jeebus where to begin here.
  • I think at one point in the game OU kicked the ball (punt or kickoff) five times and five straight times we botched the handling of the ball.  Unreal.
  • The wind was blowing decently during the game but not so much that it made catching the ball impossible.
  • If I remember correctly T-Fred dropped a punt in the 1st quarter but was able to pick it up because no one was around him because OU was kicking with the wind at it’s back and coverage wasn’t there.  At that point I knew that when we turned around and the OU guy was kicking into the wind something bad was going to happen and it did.  I heard we got screwed on the punt they ruled a fumble but the reality is we were trying to catch the ball but couldn’t.  That’s the only problem with being at the game is you don’t get to see multiple replay angles.
  • I won’t berate the point we have issues with punts anymore as we all know it but if I’m Sherman I tell Doll that we do nothing but fair catches from here on out.  I’m not kidding.  I don’t want to see a punt attempted to be returned the rest of the season.  Wave your hand and learn to catch the ball first.  You can earn the right to return the ball next season.
  • Kirk Doll needs to be fired.  Someone needs to be held accountable for this and it’s on him.  If you don’t have confidence in your guys then you have to scheme to help them even it means telling them to fair catch.  Hell, tell your returner you’re going after the ball every time so if they don’t fair catch then they’re not going anywhere anyway and they might even get their head ripped off if they don’t fair catch.  Sometimes the fear of decapitation does wonders.  It worked in Europe for centuries and it could work for the 2009 Aggie special teams.

 

Rest of the Season:

  • Feels strange to say that the Baylor game is Mike Sherman’s most pivotal game in his first two years but it is.  We don’t make a bowl game while losing to Baylor will make this program implode worse than it is now.  You’ll see 4-5 of our biggest recruits likely jump ship before signing day.
  • I’ve said it all along and it’s unfortunate but if Sherman gets to a bowl game then he deserves another year.  I think it’s become painfully obvious he’s never going to get us to where we want to be.  The sample set is getting bigger and his win over Tech appears to be the outlier and not the turning point.  Remember Tech’s season last year?  That’s the absolute best we can expect with Sherman I believe.  I don’t ever see us as a consistent Top 25 program with Sherman.  Maybe I’m wrong but great coaches don’t get embarrassed as many times as he has in two years.
  • I’m really interested to see how we do against Baylor.  As bad as we’ve been there’s no reason to think we can’t do to Baylor what they did to us last year.  Art Briles had his team cranked up to play us to essentially save their season and Mike Sherman needs to do the same for his team this year.  He needs a throttling of Baylor at home to get to a bowl and keep momentum going.
  • The other interesting thing about Baylor is we got worse as the season went on last year mainly because I don’t think Sherm adjusted offensively and other teams picked up on it.  If I were Baylor I would load up back side support and force JJ out of the pocket running right.  He’s simply not accurate rolling right and it’s his Achilles heal.  It’ll be interesting to see if Baylor can figure this out and execute it.
  • Kirk Doll needs to go as already discussed.
  • As much as it pains me to say this Joe Kines needs to go.  I think he gets a bad rap as a horrible DC but he’s not.  He’s pretty decent but when our offense can’t move the ball then we have no shot as our defense just gets gashed in the second half.  Some of it’s on talent and some of it’s on him.  Most importantly though I want Kines gone to see what Sherman does with the hire.  Remember when Fran fired Burt Reynolds and hired Gary Busey?  That was a HUGE indicator of what Fran was like.  Well, it’s time to see what Sherm does when he has to make a big hire.  It looks like a guy like Jon Tenuta will be available.  Would Sherman go after him or would he tap his NFL circle, try and talk someone not in demand to take the reigns, promote someone from within, or make a splash hire like Mack did with Muschamp?  If Sherm is going to hang around we need to see what he’s learned from a staff standpoint in 2 years of the college game.  We need to find out.  If it means Kines gets sacrificed then I’m fine with it although I’ll miss his quotes and gravely voice.
  • Wow, that last bullet hurt.  I love Joe Kines but we must make sacrifices.  Did you know that Joe Kines was born on a train?  Seriously.  Since I took my first train trip this past weekend I feel like I’ve come full circle with Joe and can cut the ties.  Doesn’t make it right and doesn’t make it easy, but it must be done.

 

 

Aggies 34 – Bears 24

 

That’s right folks, get on your bowling shoes!!!

Thoughts From KSU

If you didn’t see the game, consider yourself lucky.  Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrreal lucky.  Let’s get to my normal analysis.

Coaching:

  • Sucked

Offense:

  • Sucked

Defense:

  • Sucked

Special Teams:

  • Sucked, but our punter did have an amusing play where he went flying by Brandon Banks and took him down with his face mask.  I’m glad Banks is okay but it pretty much summed up our day where our punter makes the biggest play thanks to grabbing a face mask.

Game Analogy:

Since I can’t really critique the game because it was just so horrible and I like analogies I’m going to try and compare this to something.  I really thought about critiquing the game but I honestly don’t know where to start.  Honestly.  It was bad.

The word that comes to my mind when thinking about this game is “Desecration.”  Emasculated is also a good word but I don’t have a good analogy for emasculated other than when Jackie Sherrill cut the nuts off a calf before Miss. St. played tu one year.  We’ve all heard that story.

The worst desecration I’ve ever seen in my life was when I was maybe 5 or 6 years old.  It was New Year’s night and the family was watching the Orange Bowl.  Earlier that evening we had Popeye’s for dinner (we were poor, okay?) and for reasons I can’t explain today we decided to give our cat, Frosty, some of that glorious fried chicken.  We would pay for that move later so let the story play out.

Like all good Christians we still had our Christmas Tree up not because we were waiting on The Epiphany but because we were lazy.  As part of that tree was a tree skirt that my Mom had made herself that I thought was always pretty neat.  During half time of the Orange Bowl Frosty crawled up under the tree and started making these strange sounds.  She was groaning and making some other strange sounds but we didn’t think much of it as we were all tuned into the laser lights and amazing sounds of the Orange Bowl halftime show.  This is the early, early 80s so it was pretty much all we had at that time besides Ronald Reagan as our President.  Frosty making strange sounds under the Christmas Tree wasn’t going to distract us from our once a year enjoyment of the Orange Bowl halftime show.

Well, about five minutes later the most gawd awful smell we had ever smelt started filling the living room.  I mean this was a HORRIBLE smell.  HORRIBLE.  We all kind of looked at each other like who made that smell or where was it coming from?  Finally, someone snapped that it was coming from under the tree.  Someone boldly looked under the tree to see that Frosty had just DESECRATED Mom’s tree skirt with the help of Popeye’s Fried Chicken.  You know how horrible cat poop stinks anyway?  Popeye’s makes it smell at least 100 times worse.  I still shudder just thinking about it right now.  I took a peek to find that as bad as it smelled, it looked just as bad.  My memory is fuzzy on what happened next as I think my brother and I hauled ass out of there to let my parents deal with the ramifications of what that fried chicken did to Frosty’s intestines.  It was foul.  Real foul.

So why did I make you read that story?  Well, Saturday night reminded me of that incident.  We didn’t know it at the time but Bill Snyder was loading up on Popeye’s Fried Chicken before the game so he could come out and just DESECRATE Mike Sherman with the most foul smelling and looking results I’ve ever seen.  77-0 was one thing but that was Fran’s first year against a strong Oklahoma team.  We got DESECRATED by a half ass KSU team in Bill Snyder’s first year of his return to glory.  It was embarrassing.  Truly embarrassing.  That’s right, what happened to us is the same as a cat’s intestines loaded with the goodness of Popeye’s.  Frosty and Bill Snyder will always have indelible marks on my brain and I never want to experience either again.

Rest of the Season:

I honestly don’t know if we can get to a bowl game at this point.  I’ve been saying all along the minute that Dan Hawkins values his job over nepotism then the Colorado game becomes a very losable game.  Well, Colorado with their non-Hawkins QB just upset a ranked Kansas team in Boulder which we’re going to need to win to get our sixth win.  We have six games left needing three to get to a bowl and I don’t see us getting there.  I don’t see us getting a win over Tech, OU, or the sips.  I just don’t.  We’ll actually probably get blown out by 21 points or more.  That means we’ll need to beat BU and ISU at home which is VERY possible but I don’t see how we can march into Boulder and pull that one out after Saturday night.  I don’t even know if we can beat ISU at home the way they’ve played of late.  Thanks to Bob Griffin’s injury I think Baylor is beatable but don’t count out Art Briles and a Baylor team that thinks playing A&M is their Super Bowl.  Don’t be shocked by another 4-8 season or even 3-9.  I won’t be making ISU and don’t know about Baylor yet.  Saturday night took it all out of me.  If my seats weren’t so good then I would likely not renew next year but one day A&M will be good and I really like my seats so I’ll continue to renew but it’s not worth the almost 6 hours of driving back and forth for each game.

What to Do with Sherman:

If he doesn’t make a bowl game then I think it’s clear that he needs to be let go without a doubt.  I’ve done lots of research on college coaches and one of the most consistent things I’ve seen is they don’t get blown out.  They just don’t.  They sure as hell don’t get blown out.in a game they were favored to win where Bill Snyder doesn’t even have them stocked with JUCO talent yet.

This was a KState team coming off a 62-14 beat down in Lubbock.  They barely beat UMass by 4 points at home, lost to Louisiana Lafayette on the road, and barely beat Iowa St. by 1 at a neutral site.  Make no mistake that this is not a very good team.  It’s very likely they won’t win another game this season winding up at 4-8.  Unreal.

If Sherm does get to a bowl game then I don’t think you have any choice but to bring him back unfortunately.  It’s becoming clear Sherm is not a great coach.  Maybe he proves us wrong but Aggie fans are like someone that’s been abused as we’re ALWAYS going to flinch when Sherm leads us on the field.  He’s not a great recruiter (although he’s done well this year) and it’s likely only going to get worse if we don’t make a bowl game.

I know I was very pleased with the results from the OSU game but last night was an absolute pounding that I’m not sure we can overcome.  There’s time to cut bait and I think it’s now.  I know we’re tied into a 7 year deal with Sherman but I don’t think we can afford to keep him if we don’t go bowling.  Recruiting and ticket sales will take an absolute dive.

Don’t blame youth for this crap.  Sherm doesn’t know what he’s doing in the college game.  He was never a great NFL coach and he’s so confused on the college game right now.  He’s turned his offensive line until a revolving door when that’s supposed to be his specialty.  Its obvious Bill Snyder watched the film of us and was able to exploit every weakness against the team.  Sherm has no answer.  Remember, we were a team that actually got worse last season as opposing staffs identified and exploited our weaknesses.  Early results are that it’s happening again.  Maybe he can turn it around but he DESPERATELY needed a win over KSU to go bowling and I don’t think it’s there.  There’s no excuse for that.

Against Texas Tech:

I’m going to spend my Saturday cleaning out the garage.  Around 4:00 I’ll go take a shower.  After that, I’ll hang my flat screen on the back deck, fire up the pit, crack a beer, and get ready to put on the ribs followed by chicken wings for my barbeque wing and rib feast.  Around 6:00 I’ll turn on the confusing ramblings of Dave and Dave while I watch other good college football on the flat screen.  I figure around half time I’ll turn off the radio and focus on what’s on the screen.  If all goes well I’ll pass out on the deck to be awoken around 11:30 by the water sprinklers.

We don’t stand a chance in hell of beating Texas Tech.  This is the first time Sherm will travel to Lubbock as a head coach and his first trip in probably 15 years so he has NO idea of what Lubbock has become for us.  I kind of wish it were on TV so I could see Sherman’s reaction.  We opened at 24 point dogs and I don’t that’s enough.  I really don’t.

Nugget Stat of the Week:

Kevin Sumlin has 3 wins over BCS conference schools in 4 chances winning two of those on the road.  Mike Sherman has 2 wins over BCS conference schools in 12 chances.

Thoughts from the Ok. St. Game

I drove home from the game on Saturday scratching my head.  Some of it was due to the head lice that I can’t seem to shake but most of it was from not really understanding what I saw.  I saw a team that made a great effort and seemed to come up with plays when they were needed but in the end just fell short.  I know the reality is that we’re supposedly in for a rebuilding process that will take a few seasons but deep down inside I was secretly hoping for a 2004 season where Fran in his second year took Kyle Field back with wins over Clemson, KSU, Colorado, and Tech.  I was secretly hoping Sherm could go 6-1 at Kyle Field with the only loss coming against the Longhorns.  I firmly believe in order to get A&M back you have to learn to defend Kyle before everything else happens.  This was a great year to do it and we missed.  Fran also had a statement win against OSU on the road in 2004.  Man, what a great season that was except for BU and the Cotton.

In the end what I think I saw was what I saw in 2006 when we lost to Tech at Kyle Field.  I really feel that was a game that Fran put the players in a position to win but we just fell short due to execution on the players’ behalf.  Same thing here as I think Sherm and Co. coached well enough to win but just missed some execution.  Now, I don’t think Sherm was immune in this game as Bill Young had his number often in the first half.  Still, I don’t want to fault Sherm as he had the nads to go for it on some 4th downs where he could have played it safe and did get enough offense to score 31 points on a decent defense.  We all got on Fran throughout his time here for kicking field goals and even on Sherm last year when he punted late in the game against Tech.  Kudos to Sherm for coaching to win against a ranked opponent where even without Dez Bryant we were outmatched from a personnel standpoint when it comes to the starters.  At least Sherm went for it and acted like he wanted to win the game instead of just getting a moral victory.

Defense:

I want to start with the defense as they did such a GREAT job in the first half but ultimately faded in the second half like they’ve done all season.  Say what you want but that defense played one helluva first half.  It’s what they’ve done all season.  They have consistently forced three and outs on the first few series but for whatever reason our offense can’t really just jump out in front to help the defense out as our defense just doesn’t have the experience to keep it up for 60 minutes of football.

Let’s get to some bullets:

  • That goal-line stand in the 1st quarter was one of the most beautiful things you’ll ever see.  I absolutely loved it.  Without the defense’s efforts in the 1st half then we get our asses blown out.  I don’t want to discount anything the defense did as they did plenty to get us our win but we just couldn’t put two complete halves together to win in the end.  I agree with Sherman’s decision to kick off instead of onside late in the game as the odds for getting an onside are so low and there was almost 4 minutes left and we had all of our timeouts.  You have to give your defense a chance to redeem themselves at that point in the game.  They just didn’t have it but Kyle Field was ready for it.
  • Youth reared its ugly head on Saturday.  I can’t count the number of guys I saw not wanting to hit someone in the second half.  They were just worn out and it makes sense as most of them were playing high school football last year.  It’s evident they did great against lesser opponents but now that they’re playing BCS conference talent they just can’t last for 60 minutes.  I don’t think it’s going to get any better as this season is going to drag on and they’re not going to get any stronger.  Get ready for more great football in the first half and declining play in the first half.  Our offense is going to have to come out and drop the hammer from the get go if we’re going to win 7 games.
  • We still have problems stopping the run.  On the crucial last series where we needed to stop OSU we had no answer for a simple cut back run to the left side.  This happened repeatedly throughout the game where OSU would just simply hand off to the left side waiting for the cut back lane to show and it always did with nothing filling it.   If there’s one problem I have with Joe Kines is that he can’t scheme to stop the run when it’s obvious it’s coming.  This could come back to bite us in the butt against teams like KSU and CU when we desperately need a win against those teams on the road.  Not saying we lose but if we do it’s going to be because they pounded the ball on us on the road.
  • Our MLB play is not very good.  I had high hopes for Kyle Mangan but now that we’re playing better competition he’s just not getting it done against the run.  He’s fine on pass protection (and in fact he’s pretty damn good there) but he just can’t fill to support the run.  With our DTs that’s needed in a bad way.  Not to take anything away from our DTs as I love what Eddie Brown and TJE bring to the table in effort but they’re not your prototypical run stoppers.  Because of that we desperately need a ball busting MLB and we don’t have it.  It showed late in the game when he was able to hit the OSU RB right at the line of scrimmage on 3rd and goal from the one but couldn’t drive him back like a big ball busting MLB does so they got the score which pretty much iced the game for them as they would go up by 11 instead of 7 as I think Gundy would have had to kick there if they didn’t get in on 3rd down.  I think that was Mangan on that play..
  • We missed Jordan Pugh in a big way on Saturday.
  • Poor Dustin Harris got picked on Saturday and it’s to be expected considering he’s a true fish and T-Fred is a decent sophomore corner.  Dustin actually had decent position much of the game but just ran into a QB that you have to have perfect position against because he’s pretty damn good.  I’m sure Dustin is going to be having nightmares about that pick that went through his hands and into the end zone for 6.  Still, you don’t make that play unless you have position and he had it.  I think he’s going to be pretty good in the long run but let’s remember he was in high school this time last year playing quarterback for his team.
  • I like what I see on the defensive side of the ball in the first half but we just don’t have the depth or experience to play great football for 4 quarters.  I don’t necessarily blame the players as its just reality.  I hope like hell they prove me wrong but we’re going to need some flying to the ball in the second half as it’s just not happening now.
  • Kudos to Matt Moss for stepping up and picking off that ball when we DESPERATELY needed it the most.  You’re talking about a point in the game where OSU was about to swing the momentum in their favor and potentially blow that thing open but he came up with an amazing play.

Special Teams:

  • Outside of Randy Bullock’s 50 yard field goal our special teams were awful.  Just awful.
  • Our punting sucks.
  • Our deep snapping is questionable.
  • Our kickoffs are short and not covered the best.
  • Our punt returner likes to go sideways instead of up-field.
  • Our kick returners appear to lack burst.
  • I have no idea why we didn’t load up when we had OSU pinned in their end zone a couple of times and tell Harris just to fair catch it.  I don’t get it at all.  Especially with they have those wide spreads.  Someone needs to send Kirk Doll the video of the 2005 t.u. game where Texas loaded those splits with big fast linebackers and overcame that “wall” and blocked one of our punts early in the 3rd quarter which ultimately changed the momentum of that game.  Oh wait, I said big, fast linebackers.  Maybe I answered my own question.
  • If Frank Beamer offers a special teams clinic this summer then we should  send some of our staff.  Keep your eyes peeled for some brochure and send them to Sherm and Doll.
  • We talk about the offense and defense but honestly, if our special teams had been better we probably win this game.

Offense:

  • I think besides the head lice the offense is what had me scratching my head the most on the way back.  There were some great plays but some plays when we just couldn’t do anything.  It was just a very confusing offensive performance.
  • Stephen Barrera and Patrick Lewis started but got pulled in the 2nd quarter for reasons I can’t figure out.  The only thing I can think is that Sherm wanted guys that can pull and block and those two just don’t have experience doing it.  Barrera didn’t look bad at all in the limited time he was in there.  Wasn’t dominating but he didn’t look bad.  For whatever reason Danny Baker came in at LT and Evan Eike came in at LG to move Matt Allen back to RG.
  • Danny Baker didn’t do so well as there were multiple times where he’d be looking to the outside where no one existed only to have a LB go flying by him on a delayed blitz.  Maybe that was by design for a RB to pick up but he could have at least put a hand on the guy to slow him down since no one was coming from the outside.  I’m no OL expert but it appears to me that Barrera is our best option at LT despite his youth.  Kid is the most talented of the lot and seems to be pretty heady but just needs experience.  Don’t know what Sherm is going to do but I’d keep playing the kid considering we have KSU, TTU, ISU, and CU next on the schedule before hitting OU, BU, and tu.  Play the kid.
  • All in all I thought the offensive line did a decent job on Saturday.  By decent I mean getting a 72 in remedial math when you’ve been scoring 50s and 60s all year.  Sherm finally schemed to help slow down the aggressiveness and move the pocket around to a certain degree.  We definitely did more in the second half than in the first half and a lot of that was scheme so kudos to Sherm.  As much kudos as you give him considering he’s supposed to be an Oline guru.
  • I’m not sure what kind of game Jerrod had.  I don’t know if the guy should be dumping the ball sooner or always looking downfield.  Dude has a knack for the big play and can shed defenders like no other but sometimes he’d be better served getting rid of it.  I guess it’s good as he made some passes that I still don’t know if it was skill or luck.  He put some balls in some mighty small windows but also missed some short stuff.  I know he is often running for his life but he can’t throw on the run at all.  He really needs to set his feet because at that point he becomes deadly accurate.  You just can’t do it on a dead sprint very well.  I know I said earlier in the year that I thought Tannehill might ultimately take his gig but there’s no way Tannehill could do better with this offensive line.  He doesn’t have JJ’s size or deep ball arm strength which is keeping drives alive.  JJ is putting up gaudy numbers with a HORRIBLE OLine so I don’t think there’s much more you can ask.
  • Sherm says CMike is 100% but I don’t think he is.  Maybe it’s just that like the fish on defense he’s not as dominant against better competition.  I’m now torn on if CMike or Gray should be playing more.  I know CMike is a bigger homerun threat but I don’t know if there’s a running homerun to be had with this offensive line.  Gray is the better cutter, receiver, and blocker.  We might just have to realize we’re not going to have a 100 yard rusher this year because the OLine is so bad.  Gray does a nice job of juking and jiving to 3-4 yards a carry and that might be honestly what we need right now.  Only thing with CMike is he’s definitely a better sweep runner than Gray.  I do wish we’d run a quick pitch to CMike to the wide side as all we’ve done so far is run power sweep to the short side.  It’s great for a short gain but it’s never going to get busted.  I’d love to see what CMike could do with a wide side and a head of steam.
  • As far as WRs go there’s little doubt that EZ is the best of the freshman bunch.  We hardly talk about it but it’s going to be interesting to see what happens when Fuller comes back.  It’s like we’ve almost forgotten about him and he is JJ’s go to guy.
  • We had an interesting mix of guys this past weekend with Morrow and the the elder McCoy getting one TD each.  Too bad Jamie didn’t get his second.  You really need guys like them to step up when the defense is beginning to focus on guys like EZ and ultimately Fuller along with Tannehill on 3rd downs.
  • All in all this was a pretty solid showing against a decent defense but then again, some guy named Sumlin took his team into Stillwater and beat this same team.

What Happens from Here:

I know it’s easy to get down on this team after a loss but I think it’s becoming more and more apparent what kind of team this is.  I used to think we were a 7-5 team with no questions but I think I have to move it to 6-6 based on the fact that Dan Hawkins finally pulled his head and realized nepotism is not worth getting fired over.  I think we beat KSU, ISU, and Baylor but that’s going to be about it.  I still question Baylor even without Griffin is Briles is kind of crazy and he’ll pull ALL the stops to try and beat us at home just to use it on the recruiting trail.

I was thinking there was an outside chance we could beat Tech with Potts as he’s just not built for that system but Mike Leach would be a fool to play Potts with the way Sheffield is playing for them.  Couple that with the fact that it’s a 6:00 p.m. game in Lubbock and I don’t think there’s a chance in hell we can win it considering it will be the first time for many of these coaches to visit the high plains.

If we’re lucky, Sherm is gonna get a new weedeater from Poulan at this year’s bowl game.

Prediction for the week – A&M 38, KSU 24

Thoughts from the Arkansas Game

Most of you saw the game so there’s really no need to break down like I normally do.  Plus, my seats didn’t really allow me to see what was going on.  I was on the lower level at about the 5 yard line of the Texas A&M end zone.  I couldn’t see the whole field and watch plays develop like I could with my normal seats at Kyle.  I didn’t realize it was Barrera getting destroyed in the 2nd quarter until someone texted me.  They were on the other side of the 50 and Barrera was on the Arkansas bench side so I really couldn’t see him at all.  Just want to throw that out there that my analysis might not be as thorough as normal.

Also, I did update my prediction to 38-34 in favor of Arkansas on Thursday morning.  I did it on my blog but didn’t feel the need to e-mail all of you.

JerryWorld and the Atmosphere:

  • I wasn’t sure what to expect coming into the game.  I’d been in JerryWorld multiple times prior to the game so I was familiar with it but had never seen a game.
  • Outside the stadium was tremendous.  I started off at the pre-game party at Olenjack’s and then headed over to the stadium around 4:00ish.  The tailgating scene was outstanding.  So much so that I decided that it’s clearly worth it to pay for a tailgating spot if you have the set up to do it.  No one tailgates like the SEC so even though we lost, hopefully we get a few tailgating tips from the Arkansas fans.  They do need more porta-potties though.
  • We got to our seats about 15 minutes to kick and I have to say that the whole entire atmosphere was like a bowl game.  Half the stadium in one color and half the stadium in another with everyone making noise.  Clearly no home field advantage and its neat to see that.  I really liked that.
  • The best way to describe JerryWorld is that it’s an NBA atmosphere in a football sized venue.  The video board is way over the top in my mind.  I found myself watching it more than the game and it’s a distraction for a real football fan.  They keep the shot tight so it’s hard to see the entire play no matter where you’re sitting if you decide to watch it.  It really is like a damn amusement park in there and I don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing.  I think in a few years it’s going to wind up being like the SkyDome in Toronto.
  • I’ve never been to OU/Texas but no way would I move it to JerryWorld I don’t think as I have to imagine Cotton Bowl Stadium is better now that they’ve redone it and it’s all about tradition at that place.
  • On the same lines, if the Cotton Bowl (game itself) can’t get into the BCS Championship rotation in a few years then they need to get a new committee leading that group.  That stadium is built for a BCS game.
  • I sat in the lower level club seats and wasn’t impressed with the set up for it.  To get to the seats you have to go through the main club level which is on the second level.  That’s a very impressive area but then you have to go down this star/tunnel to get to your seats.  That’s all fine and dandy but to get concessions you have to go back up to the main club level.  I never actually left my seat because I didn’t want to miss too much of the game.  The seats were very comfy but it just seemed strange that there’s no concessions on that level for fans.  I will say I would NEVER get seats in the end zone to have to deal with Party Plaza people.
  • It’s an amazing venue but it’ll be interesting to see what it’s like in 10 years.  Heinz Field is the best new football venue I’ve been to because it’s built for football and nothing else.  The focus is on the fan and its fun for football fans to go to.  Of course, it probably doesn’t make the money like JerryWorld does.
  • I’m not knocking the venue at all as it was a great experience and glad I went and see no reason to change anything in the interim except for ticket prices.  I didn’t spend $300 for my clubs seats but I can assure you I never would after my experience.  I might pay $125 but only if I knew those seats would between the 40s.  Wouldn’t pay $85 to be in the end zone.

Coach Sherman/Offense:

I’m grouping these two together since I really think they’re synonymous.  Like I said earlier I’m not going to break down position by position or player by player as you all saw the game.  I just want to hit on some points about what I saw in coaching the offense.

  • On the way to the game we heard Bob Davie talking about the game on ESPN Radio.  Davie’s comments were basically about not knowing how good A&M was but did know that Arkansas would be 3-0 had they played our schedule.  He also went on to say that Von Miller did look impressive but he thought the Arkansas DEs looked good and basically implied they would have a bigger night.  Dude nailed it.
  • Building on Davie’s comments, Von Miller had the quarter of his life in the 1st quarter.  In the end though it was the Arkansas DEs that stood out.  Why?  Arkansas schemed to slow down Von Miller while A&M didn’t do the same for the Arkansas DEs.  That’s getting out coached.  I still can’t fathom how Sherman CONTINUALLY let his OL get exposed by giving his true freshman LT ZERO help.  I feel bad for the kid.
  • RANT TIME – Let’s get over blaming Fran for the lack of talent on the offensive line.  True, he didn’t do a good job of recruiting for the position.  Wait, he did a HORRENDOUS job of recruiting for it but Sherman is in his 16th game and should know what he has and what he doesn’t have.  He’s supposed to be the offensive line guru and he’s now cycled through at least four people at LT by my count in games this season.  If you don’t have the talent then you have to scheme to help that area of weakness.  I equate his desire to leave his LT unassisted to him trying to run the freakin’ I formation last year with no fullback and a weak offensive line.  He’s being stubborn and it’s going to cost him.  A great coach recognizes that weakness and helps out just like the opposing coach is going to exploit it.  I don’t get why he can’t recognize the weakness that he has at LT and address it through help rather than sift through the talent that he has when it’s obvious it’s not there.  Why does he not get taken to task for this?  Everyone wants to point to him being a great OLine coach but I’m just not seeing it right now.  The OLine is not good but he’s not doing a DAMN thing to take the focus of it.
  • There is one thing that I’m not seeing talked about in this game that was an obvious difference than in his first three games.  We continued to run the no huddle but we didn’t push the tempo like we did in the first three games.  In the first three games we would quickly line up, get the play in, and then off we went.  Not only were we locking in the defensive personnel but we were pushing them on their heels.  In this game we did the no huddle where you lineup and then adjust the play call to the defensive alignment by looking to the sideline.  To me this gave the Arkansas defense a chance to regroup and apply pressure.  Not saying we win if we push the tempo but I just found it strange that Sherman decide to play cat and mouse trying to out scheme a defense with such a weak offensive line.  Let’s hope he comes out against OSU and tries to move the ball with a quick tempo, no huddle offense.  I really think slowing the tempo killed us once we got the lead.  I think Sherman got too comfortable and went all NFL trying to protect a lead and never recovered when that lead was lost.  If your OL is in shape (why wouldn’t they be if they’re so weak as that would be your only advantage) it gives them a unique advantage to just line up every time and fire off engaging someone that’s trying to catch their breath.  I really think Sherm needs to go back to this.
  • JJ is HORRIBLE at throwing to his right if he can’t set is feet.  Kid is crazy athletic but if he’s rolling to his right he sails his passes unless he can set.  As long as he can set his feet he’s fine but this was the first time I’ve ever seen him try to throw rolling right and he was sailing every ball.  I don’t think it was him trying to throw the ball away as it was relatively close for the receiver but still out of reach.  All of these were sideline passes.
  • Sherman should be strung up for running JJ out there with 15 seconds left in the game and attempting passes.  It was very Fran-esque to try and get some more passing in there in a blowout with only 15 seconds left.  Of course, JJ almost got decapitated so I hope Sherman NEVER does it again.  NEVER.  You don’t have to kneel it but run the damn ball and end the misery.
  • Christine Michael is not 100%.  Cyrus looked pretty good after I essentially bashed him last week.  He can flat out cut back and forth which looking at it might be the best style from here on out.  Not saying Christine shouldn’t be getting lots of touches but Cyrus might be better served than I originally thought.
  • The poor freshman WRs had a rude awakening playing someone with legit D1 talent.  Powder Puffs no more.  Not sure what else to say as no one stood out and I’m not covering the drop we all know about.
  • All in all, Sherman laid a real stinker in this game.  This is his biggest problem of not coming from the college ranks.  I don’t care that he “gets” A&M as I care more about getting the college game and winning games.  It was clear in that game that Petrino was the better coach.  His team was better prepared for four quarters meaning he picked up more in film than Sherman did to make in game adjustments and knew how to manage the entire game unlike Sherman.

Defense/Special Teams:

  • Won’t hit a ton here but good lord Joe Kines had this unit ready to go from the start.  THREE three and outs is DAMN impressive.  DAMN impressive.  Too bad this gets overlooked.  We knew Arkansas was going to score points but the defense did everything they could to let us get in out in front and control the game.  Unfortunately the offense didn’t oblige.
  • One VERY IMPORTANT turnover.  Once again, the turnover we got gets discounted as it should have been a game changer but the offense sputtered.  I commented when the defense was going out there that we needed a turnover now down by 4 points.  We get that gift and the offense does nothing with it.  Special teams then gets the ball back and the offense turns it over for a TD the other way.  Game, set, match.
  • Our defense is young and they’re going to get better but our offense HAS to help them.  The best defenses have an offense that gives them rest and keeps them in the game.  Our offense did actually win the TOP battle but they couldn’t score any points to force Arkansas into some offensive sets they didn’t want to be in but our offense didn’t do it.
  • Punting sucked.
  • Kick returns were decent but Arkansas actually forced Lionel Smith down the sideline they wanted by kicking short to his side.  Smith did a nice job returning but he was never going to bust one the way Arkansas was kicking to him.  Nice job of coaching by the Arkansas staff as a kick return could have been detrimental to them.  They felt comfortable that their defense had figured out the A&M offense so it looked like they were willing to give up yards on the kick to not have a big return.

Ryan Mallett:

  • Want to give this kid his own section because he’s that damn good.  He’s got to be the best pure passing QB I’ve ever seen in college.  He goes about 6’7” and has an effortless motion with zip.  In addition he has this unbelievably quick release.  He’s a Top 10 pick if he keeps this up.  I sorry that he pounded our ass but it was a real treat watching him sling it around.

Where to go from here:

There is no reason to NOT win 7 games.  That’s four wins over KSU, ISU, CU, and Baylor.  A good coach wins those four games based on what we’ve seen.  A great coach picks one out of OSU or Tech to win and go 8-4 on the season.

I think we win 7 but I don’t see Sherman winning 8 as he’s just not aggressive enough to try and take it to OSU or Tech.  He’ll do the EXACT same thing against OSU and Tech where we’ll come out and do pretty well but the other coaching staff will adjust after figuring out his game plan and Sherman will stick to what he thinks he can do and lose in the end.

I really think we have the talent to surprise OSU or Tech as I don’t think they’re as good as they’re made out to be but I don’t see Sherman rolling the dice.  He’s got too much NFL in him and he thinks he’s too smart in scheming four quarters and never making the in game adjustments.

In the end I think Sherman is going to turn out to be very Fran-esque winning 8 and 10 games a season but never more.  I know it’s only one game but we’ll just have to see.  I got blinded by one great game over UAB but that might have been his high point.  I hope not but we’ll see.  Sherman deserves no credit as to date he still hasn’t done anything at A&M when you really think about it.

Colorado vs. West Virginia

This is the third game that I’ve watched Colorado this season and I just want to go on record to say that Colorado will be MUCH improved if/when Hawkins is replaced by CU.

Hawkins has one pass and it’s to Scotty McKnight.  He gets in McKnight’s range and McKnight does the rest.  McKnight got knocked out cold against Colorado St. but he’s come back and is a solid possession guy along the lines of Ryan Tannehill.

I still don’t feel good about our game in Boulder just yet.  Lot’s of football but paint me skeptical on 10/01/2009.

Updated Arkansas Prediction – 38 to 34 (Hogs win)

I hate doing this but I have to update my prediction on the Arkansas game.  It’s due to John Lopez’s piece on Jerrod Johnson.  It’s a GREAT piece but I feel it’s just too soon.  Here’s the article if you haven’t read it:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/john_lopez/09/30/jerrod-johnson/index.html

Look, I love JJ as I think he’s an amazing kid and I want him to do well.  There’s nothing I’d love more than to see JJ hoisting the Big XII Championship and winning a BCS game.  Nothing more.

However, I think John jumped the gun a bit on this thing.  Prior to this year we all made fun of Tech’s eye popping numbers against weaker teams prior to conference.  Well, that’s us right now.  We haven’t played anyone.

That changes this weekend but like Bill Parcells said about Tony Romo – Let’s not get the anointing oil out just yet.  I just think it’s bad karma on Lopez’s end to write this article this week.  Wait until AFTER the Arkansas game.  Although we’re on TV there are a TON of people that won’t see the game due to OU/Miami and will take Lopez’s article with a grain of salt.  Save this article for after the Arkansas game if it’s warranted.

In case you don’t know Lopez has a serious bias to JJ and that’s not a bad thing.  Lopez was friends with JJ’s Dad and Lopez’s son is one of JJ’s friends.  What Lopez didn’t mention in that article is that he coached that AAU team that he referenced.  I wish he would have disclosed that.

Like I said, don’t take this the wrong way as me not liking JJ.  I want JJ to succeed.  I lost my Dad while I was at A&M to a massive heart attack similar to how JJ lost his Dad.  I can relate to JJ on that and I know how so much of what he’s doing right now is to do something his Dad would be proud of.  Nobody wants him to do that more than me.  Nobody.

I just wished Lopez would have tapped the brakes until AFTER this weekend when no one can question the competition.

Here’s to JJ proving Lopez right and me wrong but I just don’t feel good about us beating Arky after going back and realizing how inconsistent JJ’s been in the three games.  Yes, he’s putting up amazing stats but he’s been inconsistent in doing so if you watched all 3 games.

Thoughts from UAB


Before I hit the UAB game, let me quickly touch on the Utah St. game since I never wrote anything about it:

  • We were gutted up the middle on defensive.  There is little doubt our weakness on defense is up the gut.  When we face running teams it’s going to be a looooong night.  Just get used to giving up yards on the ground.
  • Jerrod Johnson didn’t look good at all.  He was getting pressured but he was missing guys left and right.
  • We played GREAT defensively in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.  My personal belief is that Utah St. was ready for us and we were a bit sluggish in the 1st quarter being off for two weeks.  I think the 4th quarter was just us getting lax up by a decent margin coming off the previous throttling of New Mexico.
  • All in all it was a nice win but obviously showing areas of concern.

On to the Blazers of Bama Birmingham:

Special Teams:

  • We actually had a decent special teams showing as a whole but we had two BIG snafus early on.  The first one was the idiotic move by our kick return team of retreating without knowing where the ball was going.  The upback should have called a fair catch and been done with it.  As it happened the guy let the ball hit the ground and then UAB recovered.  They would drive to get 3 points on us on their opening drive thanks to that gift.
  • The other snafu was Dustin Harris’ fumbled punt in the same quarter in which they turned into 3 more points.  Dustin is a true freshman and had a decent return later on so you hope it was just a freshman fluke.
  • That’s pretty much it for special teams other than Ken Wood looking decent as a punter.  Definitely not on the level of Brantley but he’s looking decent.

Offense:

  • Jerrod likely had the game of his career so far.  Dude did everything right and looked outstanding.  I don’t know what else to say about the kid as he was EXTREMLY accurate hitting short and long balls.  I think I saw one play where he didn’t see a wide open guy and forced a ball into traffic but the best QB is going to have that happen to him.
  • JJ also looked extremely good running the ball.  He obviously scored 3 running TDs but one of those was a QB sneak.  One involved a run to the corner and the other involved a draw up the middle.  I don’t know if it was a draw by design but it was a great decision and great run by JJ.
  • Howard Morrow came out of nowhere and had a great night.  I’ve always liked this kid and I hope he has more games like he did Saturday night.  He looked really good catching the ball.  The only thing missing was that sleeve he wore last year.  I kind of liked that look.  Seriously.  I miss his sleeve.  He could prove to be a very solid #2 or #3 wide receiver this year.  I hope he does.  And I hope he reconsiders the sleeve.
  • Other receivers that looked good in general were Jamie McCoy and Brandal Jackson.  Jackson still has some work to do but he looks like a straight up possession guy.  With this offense Jamie McCoy just seems like one of those guys that’s going to get lost by the defense which will result in a great safety valve for JJ and moving the chains.  Need guys like Jamie on your team.
  • Ryan Tannehill just looked tremendous on Saturday night.  Kid is a football player plain and simple.  He finds the open spot but most importantly positions himself to block the defender and keep positioning where only he can catch the ball.  I don’t want to say he’s like Larry Fitzgerald but he has that same ability where he can just adjust and position himself where the defender has to go through more of himself to get the ball.  It makes it easier to catch the ball when you know how to shield the defender.  It’s one of those underrated skills like a pitcher that is able to hide the ball longer from the hitter.
  • 9 total people caught the ball which just tells you how well JJ did finding the open guy.
  • The offensive line looked pretty decent.  Not great but maybe the best I’ve seen them in the three games.  I think a lot of it has to do with Shumard at guard.  He’s by far the best lineman on the team as long as he’s playing guard.  That can be stated enough.  He’s a natural guard and a damn good one.  When he’s not there the line is weaker.  Let’s just leave him there.
  • Barrera looked pretty good at LT and I dare say has looked better than any other LT in our short season.  Not saying he looked great but he did do a decent job.  Long ways to go and he’s going to have his hands full when he goes up against the better DEs in the Big XII but if one game is an example then it’s better than anything else.
  • Danny Baker looked to do okay as well at the RT but I did see him get blown up once resulting in the RB getting pegged in the backfield.  It’s probably best he’s not at LT anymore.
  • Didn’t really see much out of Matthews or Allen which is fine.  It’s sometimes best not to notice an offensive lineman.
  • I did watch Pat Lewis quite a bit as he got quite a bit of PT at guard and looked damn good.  Didn’t get a real good look at him on running plays but he’s a solid pass blocker.  He’s just got a low center of gravity and uses great technique.  If he doesn’t start at center this year then I think he just plugs in next year and goes.  He might still Matt Allen’s spot this year which I’m fine with if that’s what it comes down to.  It’s good to know that it appears that Lewis can push both Matthews and Allen.
  • All in all this line looked decent on Saturday night.  Don’t take it as things are hunky dory as there are still issues but if they played like they did on Saturday night all season we can easily get to a bowl game and a half decent one.  They didn’t dominate but they did a nice job of engaging their man on run plays and creating some semblance of a pocket on pass plays.
  • I hate saying this next thing but Cyrus Gray is no Christine Michael.  I don’t mean that as slight to Cyrus as he seems like such a great guy and team player.  I think we’ve gotten spoiled with the explosiveness in guys like Goodson and saw it early on in Michael.  Without CM suited up it became painfully obvious what Cyrus is missing.  He’s not a horrible back by any stretch as I think he’d start on several other Big XII games but he just lacks the explosiveness of a featured back.  What Cyrus does well is make cuts and shift.  Think of him like a healthy Courtney Lewis but without the acceleration.  Against good teams he’s never going to break one off out of nothing and I don’t see him ever really carrying a team.
  • I was actually really impressed with Bradley Stephens.  He’s more explosive than Cyrus and looks to be somewhere between Cyrus and Christine.  I know he’s had issues holding onto the ball but I would actually feel decent about a Cyrus/Bradley tandem if we had a better OLine.  We don’t have that so let’s just feature CMike from here on out.
  • There’s not much else to say about the offense as they put up 56 points.  And that was without their two best playmakers in Christine Michael and Jeff Fuller.  Let’s hope they keep this.

Defense:

  • Overall this was a VERY good defensive performance.  Joe Webb (UAB QB) is no slouch and the special teams turned the ball over at some key points to really shorten the field and put the defense in a bind which the defense worked out of.  It was not a dominating performance but it was a VERY good performance.
  • It’s hard to really point out any one person as it was a true team effort.  Seriously.  11 guys playing their assignments, getting to the ball, and making the tackle.  UAB scored points but let’s just realize that we don’t have the experienced talent it takes to shut teams out for four quarters.  Maybe in two years but not right now.
  • We do have a severe weakness in that we’re weak up the middle.  I think some of this is by design as Kines has consistently given some slack up the middle.  I think it’s just him trying to eliminate the big play over the top and keep his defense playing side line to side line.
  • As always, Von Miller looked good but I think his days of getting sack after sack are over as he’s getting more double teams and the competition will only get better.  Don’t get me wrong as he still got 2 Saturday night but I think more and more teams will commit more resources to him and he won’t be as disruptive as he’s been in these first three games.  That’s actually a good thing as two people on Von means we have better coverage or opportunity elsewhere.  Let’s hope some others can step up.  You’ll still see Von applying pressure but it’s going to get harder and harder on him.
  • Outside of giving up yardage in the middle the DLine looked decent.  I thought Matt Moss did a great job opposite Von and I think the guys inside actually do a pretty good job considering I rail on this defense for giving up yards up the middle.
  • All of the linebackers looked solid but not yet spectacular.  This group is leaps and bounds of where they were last year but they still have a ways to go to being one of the top LB corps in the country which is where we ultimately want get back to.  Each one will have a great play each game but they’re not disruptive by any stretch all game and that’s where I think we have to get back to.  I think Kines is not attempting to try and make them disruptive as he doesn’t want to give up the big play.
  • Same thing with the secondary.  Very solid but not yet spectacular.  Don’t get me wrong in that this group played a very solid game but they’re not quite disruptive of where the Wrecking Crew used to be.  I would have to go back and look at the stats but I’m not sure this secondary has an interception yet.  They have some fumble recoveries but I’m racking my brain trying to remember an interception by the secondary and can’t think of one right now.  You don’t need interceptions to be good but I do feel you need interceptions out of your secondary to be great.  At the same time, you never want to trade interceptions for touchdowns as TDs burn you much more.
  • Tackling – This can’t be talked about enough in that this crew tackles 100X better than last year.  It’s not even close.  This defense is fundamentally sound and they can bring down the guy with the ball.  A lot of this has to do with being in better position and having speed to get to the ball carrier but it’s good to see these guys bringing ball carriers down with initial contact.
  • 3rd Downs – I need to go look at the stats to see exactly how good they were but this defense did a damn good job getting off the field on 3rd downs.  This is probably the best stat for a defense (outside of points obviously) as I don’t care how many yards you give up if you’re getting off the field on third downs.  Not only does it give you the ball back but it keeps your defense fresh.  This was a huge problem last year and what ultimately led to our second half collapses.  So far they’ve been really good in getting off the field on third downs and that’s great to see.
  • Don’t worry about yards given up by this defense.  It’s going to happen. Focus on the score given up and 3rd down holds.  I’m convinced that’s all Joe Kines cares about.  He’ll give you yards on 1st and 2nd down but he’s going to do everything he can to get his defense off the field on 3rd down.  Same thing with points.  He’s going to try and keep you outside of the red zone but if you get there he’s going to do everything he can to keep you to a field goal.

Looking at Arkansas:

This is not a big game by any stretch but I think it’s safe to say that this is the biggest game since Miami in 2007.  We’re playing a name team on national television so we can get some good pub if we do well.  We’ll be opposite of OU/Miami so we won’t get that much national pub but it’s better than nothing.  We win this game and we’re clearly on the road to a bowl game and maybe even something on the level of the Alamo Bowl.

I’ve watched the highlights of Akry in their first two games and then the first half against Bama.  Here’s what I’ve learned:

1)      Their OLine is not that great.

2)      Their defense is not that great.

3)      Ryan Mallett can throw like a mother.

4)      They don’t have a dominant running back.

If we play like we’ve played then this is a VERY winnable game.  The talent is very equal so it’s all going to come down to preparation and scheme.  In my mind this is clearly a game that will be won by the coaching staff unless one of the QBs can’t hit the broad side of a barn then it will be on the QB.  Make no mistake as this game will be won by the coaching staffs and the QB play.

It’s going to be a shoot out for the most part and we won’t be able to win if JJ isn’t hitting his guys.  If JJ plays like he did against Utah St. then we lose.  If he plays like he’s played against New Mexico and UAB then we win.

I do think Sherm and Co. have to come up with a slightly different scheme offensively for this game.  Not a drastic one but they need to introduce a new set besides the bunch formation.  It’s served them well but I think they need something to surprise and give Arkansas something to think about.

My prediction – Aggies 45, Arky 35

I don’t feel good about it as neither team has had enough games to truly see what’s going on but I think we win based on what I’ve seen in the first three games.  And just so you know I didn’t think there was a chance in hell we could win this game coming into the season based on how both teams closed out last year.

Thoughts on New Mexico

First off, let me say that 41-6 is 41-6.  Offense scored a ton of points and the defense pitched a shutout related to touchdowns.  Not much more can you ask for coming off a 4-8 season and with as much as youth as the Aggies ran out there on Saturday night.  Great win, great feeling knowing you whipped the opponent who came into Kyle.  It’s still New Mexico (I bet Fran was confused on who to root for) but we didn’t see anything near this last year.  Kudos to Sherman and the players.

I’m just going to hit random bullets for each phase of the game.

Offense:

  • Statistically JJ had an AMAZING game and he did.  The only thing I would fault him for is he’s not real good in the short game.  He had 3-4 passes where he had a guy wide open less than 15-20 yards away from him and he either floated it or put in the dirt.  He’s got to complete those if he wants to be great.  Regardless, he had a great game.  The other amazing thing that JJ can do is roll to his left and get off a great pass.  That’s a pretty special trait.
  • Jeff Fuller is a flat out stud.  What’s amazing about him last night is that I think he caught 11 balls but it was so workman like.  No big plays.  He just went out and played ball.  That’s honestly what we need out of him.  Chewing up 4-15 yards a catch will do this offense more good than last year where it seemed like he and JJ just wanted to play the long ball.  He needs to draw the double teams but still be able to keep the ball moving.  He didn’t really draw many double teams last night but he kept the ball moving.  Great game for him.  His TD was a thing of beauty.  For whatever reason UNM decided to run zone coverage on that play.  JJ realized it and simply hit Jeff on his cut for a TD.  You can’t run zone on JJ in the red zone.  Great game for Fuller.
  • Tanneyhill (sic) is unreal.  He probably saw 10 snaps but 3 of those were converting 3rd downs of longer than 7 yards.  His knack for finding the defenses weak spot is unreal.  He might just be better reading the defense on the sideline and then coming in to exploit them.  I think it was obvious by Saturday night that he wants to be on the field.  I think there’s an outside chance that he could be our starting QB at some point this season (not due to injury – I just worry about JJ against the better defenses like you saw down the stretch last year) but the kid is a flat out baller.  I’ve NEVER seen anyone come off the bench on a 3rd and long and convert it like him.  It’s unreal.  He comes off the bench, gets a first, and heads back to the sidelines.  Unreal.
  • All of the freshman receivers looked solid.  EZ looked the best but that’s mainly because he got the most PT.  Brandal looked good and Kenric had a nice TD reception.  Kudos to Sherman and his staff for getting these kids and getting them coached up.
  • Evidently Bradley Stephens had a solid run in the 4th quarter.  Don’t know as I elected to hit the tailgate and the end of the OU/BYU game about mid-way through the 4th quarter.  Blame Bill Byrne as not ONCE during the game did I get an update on the Baylor or Tech game and only got first half reports of the OU game.  For some reason they were running the scores of the other Big XII opponents but not the South.  That’s why I left early as I like to be a well rounded college football fan.  Plus, there was beer at the tailgate.  I’m probably more of a fan of beer than college football but they’re neck and neck.  Either way I’m mad at Bill for keeping those Big XII scores from me.
  • Running game took a while to get on track which I’ll hit on later but Cyrus Gray looked decent.
  • Christine Michael – BOY HOWDY!!!  If you follow recruiting you’ll know that it’s uncertain if we got him because we recruited him the hardest or because tu and LSU really never showed him the love.  If it’s the latter then Les and Mack are IDIOTS!  Most of you know my man love for Mike Goodson (Did you know he once outran the Miami MFen’ Defense) and Christine is on that level.  He’s different than Mike in Christine has this acceleration that Mike didn’t have and a spin move that’s out of control.  In addition, his pad height is low which I hear gives Big Sherm a Big Wood.  I feel bad for Cyrus and Bradley as you can’t keep this kid off the field.  I truly feel like we’re looking at a first round pick in a few years like Knowshown Moreno.  I don’t think there’s a freshman (true or RS) in the Big XII on CMike’s level.  Sometimes you’re good and get kids like this and sometimes you’re lucky.  I don’t care how we got him as I’m just glad he’s in maroon.
  • Now is where we get to the negatives and it’s called the offense line.  Despite the 41 points the greatest thing that bothered me was the play in the first half.  We came out in the no huddle and obviously had UNM on the heels not expecting it as we easily scored on the first drive.  After that drive we kept trying to establish the run and UNM wouldn’t let us.  Not good, folks.  Our Oline could not establish the run game against a decent UNM DLine.  That’s a serious concern.  We really struggled offensively after that first drive but luckily we were able to open it up with the pass and off we went.
  • Individually the best performer might be Mike Shumard as I didn’t see him make any mistakes.  Of course, he might have simply been helping all night which doesn’t hurt as you don’t get exposed.
  • Matt Allen is apparently in the running for the Aldo DeLaGarza Transfer Achievement Award.  This award is for an OL transfer that came from a major program that never lived up to the hype.  It was his first game as an Aggie so he deserves a break but if he doesn’t clean up his act then he’s going to be on that level with Aldo.  I think he was responsible for 4 calls resulting in 40 yards of penalties.  That ain’t good folks.  In addition there were a few time I saw him either whiff on a blitz pick up or whiff on a defender when pulling.  That’s not what you want with a guard.
  • Grimey played most of the game except for one play where he got hurt on the previous play on the sidelines.  It still confuses me on how Sherman thinks he can shirt Scales and Barrera with the classes he has coming in.  Grimey actually played a decent game but I don’t think he’s going to be able to hold up all season.  Let’s realize that and get ready for it.
  • Danny Baker actually did pretty decent.  A former player told me he’s the meanest guy on the OLine and that’s good enough for me.  He won’t be all Big XII but if he can hold the fort for a season until Scales or Matthews is ready then that’s okay with me.  He didn’t look great but he did look better than any LT we had last season so it’s all relative.
  • I hate saying this because his brother is such a great recruit but I’d be shocked if Patrick Lewis isn’t our starting center by the middle of the season.  Kevin Matthews is decent enough but he just doesn’t have the physical strength even though he does have great technique.  UNM shaded him the entire game and did a number on him for the most part.  Kevin did well enough but he was definitely on the receiving end most of the night.  I worry what other Big XII teams are going to do to him.  Kevin would be fine under most circumstances but I think Pat Lewis is just that big of a stud at the C position.  I’m just saying don’t be shocked to see Lewis starting at some point this season.
  • We all know this but it was painfully obvious on Saturday night that this OL still has a ways to go.  The coaches did do a nice job utilizing the power sweep to the short side after a big gain using the no huddle and I really think that helped open up the running game.  Not sure we can simply establish a between the tackles type game with this crew.  Against lesser teams yes, but most of the Big XII opponents are going to be pretty tough to get it going.  If Sherman is going to be bull headed about establishing it like he was last year then he’s going to lose 2 games he shouldn’t.  For this team, the pass has to set up the run.
  • Did I tell you I went for beer in the 4th quarter so I can’t really write about the second teamers?

Defense:

For those of you that subscribed to my service last year (okay, didn’t tell me to quit wasting your time) you’ll know I ALWAYS claimed Joe Kines got a bad rap.  I always talked about how Kines essentially pitched to contact and essentially got clowned because the offensive side of the equation couldn’t get a first down exposing his defense to too much time on the field and feeling beaten before it was over.

Well Joe Kines pitched a beauty Saturday night thanks to the offense staying on the field and giving his defense some rest and motivation to dominate.  When your defense doesn’t give up a TD no matter who the opponent is you’ve done something good.  All in all this is a different defense than last year.  Joe Kines found some speed and used it to his advantage.  Say what you want but I think Joe Kines is the best coach on our staff including Sherman.  I’m not kidding.

  • Let’s get this out of the way – Von Miller is a pass rushing freak.  We all heard the stories in the off season but I was always interested to see how it would play out on the field since our OL is so suspect.  Well, Von had 3 sacks and they were legit sacks.  What impressed me about Von on Saturday night was that he played smart and wasn’t always looking to fly around the left tackle.  There were times he stopped his rush and cut up inside to take a line to the QB.  He’s also very good about not rounding off his rush and can cut in after blowing by the OT.  He’s not going to get 3 sacks every game which is fine because defenses will now have to scheme against him.  What was interesting is that he really only played on passing downs as Featherston actually started and played on 1st and 2nd downs.  The other thing to get ready for on Von is late hits on the QB.  The kid is such a freak that he can’t shut it down when he gets the line and it’s going to cause him to hit the QB late.  It’s not cheap but it’s going to happen.  If it’s a 3 to 1 ratio like it was on Friday night then I’ll probably take it.
  • All in all this defense played MUCH faster on Saturday night.  Lots of youth on the field but they all looked good.  They’re not big but they’re fast and that’s what we need right now for all of these spread offenses in the Big XII.
  • TACKLING – Holy cow this crew actually tackled on Saturday night.  Probably the greatest thing I saw in the game on either side of the ball.  They were hitting and wrapping up and they looked damn good doing it.  They were swarming to the ball and actually bringing down the guy with the ball.  It was refreshing to see.
  • Linebackers – As a whole this crew looked LIGHT YEARS ahead of last season.  Mangan looked pretty good but the rest of the guys looked really good.  Garrick Williams probably looked the best.  He was just all over the field and making tackles.  Looked really confident out there.  Jonathan Stewart looks the part and played the part as well when he was in there.  The other guy I was impressed with was Sean Porter.  I thought this kid would be too small to play LB but he moves well which helps him a ton and will help us a ton against pass teams.  Ricky Cavanaugh didn’t really stand out to me but that doesn’t mean he didn’t have a good game.  Lots of youth out there on Saturday night as Williams and Cavanaugh were your graybeards out there and they’re only Sophomores.  This crew should just get better and better which is something we haven’t been able to say about our LBs in a LONG time.
  • The defensive line as a whole looked pretty good but this wasn’t the type of offense to let those guys shine or get exposed.  UNM ran a lot of spread trying to play catch up so they didn’t run much up the middle and the QB didn’t hold the ball too long.  I though the DTs with the Eddies and Lucas looked pretty solid.  Matt Moss was solid on the outside.  Spencer Nealy looked GREAT.  This kid looks like a recruiting steal.  He looks like the kind of player you have to get in a program to be really great.  He’s not a dominant guy but he’s the kind of guy to come off the bench and really just give the OL a few plays of just having to go full blast which helps wear them down.
  • There weren’t too many deep balls and I really didn’t watch the coverage too much as I watched the line and backers most of the time.  It did bother me one time where UNM had 3rd and 3 and TFred was playing off the ball about 8 yards which UNM then exploited for a 4 yard pass and a first down.
  • The stats show it but before we get too excited about this defense lets not forget that they got a TON of help from the Aggie offense moving the chains and getting time of possession while forcing UNM to play catch up.  They got screwed last year statistically so it’s nice to see them have a great statistical game.  All in all though this is a much better defense and they deserve GREAT credit for a well played game.

Special Teams:

  • Not much to report on here as it looked they were working on different things throughout the game.  Bullock hit a couple field goals.

I still say a great coach gets us to 6 wins this season and we look on our way.  We should have 5 wins in UNM, Utah St., UAB, ISU, and KSU.  That hasn’t changed.  CU looked like HELL the other night and Baylor looked solid in the first half.  I still think we can win one of those.  I still think there’s an outside chance we can beat Arky or Tech and don’t stand a chance against OU, tu, or OSU.  If Sherman is a great coach he’ll get us to 6 wins and in a bowl game.