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Updated Arkansas Prediction – 38 to 34 (Hogs win)

I hate doing this but I have to update my prediction on the Arkansas game.  It’s due to John Lopez’s piece on Jerrod Johnson.  It’s a GREAT piece but I feel it’s just too soon.  Here’s the article if you haven’t read it:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/john_lopez/09/30/jerrod-johnson/index.html

Look, I love JJ as I think he’s an amazing kid and I want him to do well.  There’s nothing I’d love more than to see JJ hoisting the Big XII Championship and winning a BCS game.  Nothing more.

However, I think John jumped the gun a bit on this thing.  Prior to this year we all made fun of Tech’s eye popping numbers against weaker teams prior to conference.  Well, that’s us right now.  We haven’t played anyone.

That changes this weekend but like Bill Parcells said about Tony Romo – Let’s not get the anointing oil out just yet.  I just think it’s bad karma on Lopez’s end to write this article this week.  Wait until AFTER the Arkansas game.  Although we’re on TV there are a TON of people that won’t see the game due to OU/Miami and will take Lopez’s article with a grain of salt.  Save this article for after the Arkansas game if it’s warranted.

In case you don’t know Lopez has a serious bias to JJ and that’s not a bad thing.  Lopez was friends with JJ’s Dad and Lopez’s son is one of JJ’s friends.  What Lopez didn’t mention in that article is that he coached that AAU team that he referenced.  I wish he would have disclosed that.

Like I said, don’t take this the wrong way as me not liking JJ.  I want JJ to succeed.  I lost my Dad while I was at A&M to a massive heart attack similar to how JJ lost his Dad.  I can relate to JJ on that and I know how so much of what he’s doing right now is to do something his Dad would be proud of.  Nobody wants him to do that more than me.  Nobody.

I just wished Lopez would have tapped the brakes until AFTER this weekend when no one can question the competition.

Here’s to JJ proving Lopez right and me wrong but I just don’t feel good about us beating Arky after going back and realizing how inconsistent JJ’s been in the three games.  Yes, he’s putting up amazing stats but he’s been inconsistent in doing so if you watched all 3 games.

Thoughts from UAB


Before I hit the UAB game, let me quickly touch on the Utah St. game since I never wrote anything about it:

  • We were gutted up the middle on defensive.  There is little doubt our weakness on defense is up the gut.  When we face running teams it’s going to be a looooong night.  Just get used to giving up yards on the ground.
  • Jerrod Johnson didn’t look good at all.  He was getting pressured but he was missing guys left and right.
  • We played GREAT defensively in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.  My personal belief is that Utah St. was ready for us and we were a bit sluggish in the 1st quarter being off for two weeks.  I think the 4th quarter was just us getting lax up by a decent margin coming off the previous throttling of New Mexico.
  • All in all it was a nice win but obviously showing areas of concern.

On to the Blazers of Bama Birmingham:

Special Teams:

  • We actually had a decent special teams showing as a whole but we had two BIG snafus early on.  The first one was the idiotic move by our kick return team of retreating without knowing where the ball was going.  The upback should have called a fair catch and been done with it.  As it happened the guy let the ball hit the ground and then UAB recovered.  They would drive to get 3 points on us on their opening drive thanks to that gift.
  • The other snafu was Dustin Harris’ fumbled punt in the same quarter in which they turned into 3 more points.  Dustin is a true freshman and had a decent return later on so you hope it was just a freshman fluke.
  • That’s pretty much it for special teams other than Ken Wood looking decent as a punter.  Definitely not on the level of Brantley but he’s looking decent.

Offense:

  • Jerrod likely had the game of his career so far.  Dude did everything right and looked outstanding.  I don’t know what else to say about the kid as he was EXTREMLY accurate hitting short and long balls.  I think I saw one play where he didn’t see a wide open guy and forced a ball into traffic but the best QB is going to have that happen to him.
  • JJ also looked extremely good running the ball.  He obviously scored 3 running TDs but one of those was a QB sneak.  One involved a run to the corner and the other involved a draw up the middle.  I don’t know if it was a draw by design but it was a great decision and great run by JJ.
  • Howard Morrow came out of nowhere and had a great night.  I’ve always liked this kid and I hope he has more games like he did Saturday night.  He looked really good catching the ball.  The only thing missing was that sleeve he wore last year.  I kind of liked that look.  Seriously.  I miss his sleeve.  He could prove to be a very solid #2 or #3 wide receiver this year.  I hope he does.  And I hope he reconsiders the sleeve.
  • Other receivers that looked good in general were Jamie McCoy and Brandal Jackson.  Jackson still has some work to do but he looks like a straight up possession guy.  With this offense Jamie McCoy just seems like one of those guys that’s going to get lost by the defense which will result in a great safety valve for JJ and moving the chains.  Need guys like Jamie on your team.
  • Ryan Tannehill just looked tremendous on Saturday night.  Kid is a football player plain and simple.  He finds the open spot but most importantly positions himself to block the defender and keep positioning where only he can catch the ball.  I don’t want to say he’s like Larry Fitzgerald but he has that same ability where he can just adjust and position himself where the defender has to go through more of himself to get the ball.  It makes it easier to catch the ball when you know how to shield the defender.  It’s one of those underrated skills like a pitcher that is able to hide the ball longer from the hitter.
  • 9 total people caught the ball which just tells you how well JJ did finding the open guy.
  • The offensive line looked pretty decent.  Not great but maybe the best I’ve seen them in the three games.  I think a lot of it has to do with Shumard at guard.  He’s by far the best lineman on the team as long as he’s playing guard.  That can be stated enough.  He’s a natural guard and a damn good one.  When he’s not there the line is weaker.  Let’s just leave him there.
  • Barrera looked pretty good at LT and I dare say has looked better than any other LT in our short season.  Not saying he looked great but he did do a decent job.  Long ways to go and he’s going to have his hands full when he goes up against the better DEs in the Big XII but if one game is an example then it’s better than anything else.
  • Danny Baker looked to do okay as well at the RT but I did see him get blown up once resulting in the RB getting pegged in the backfield.  It’s probably best he’s not at LT anymore.
  • Didn’t really see much out of Matthews or Allen which is fine.  It’s sometimes best not to notice an offensive lineman.
  • I did watch Pat Lewis quite a bit as he got quite a bit of PT at guard and looked damn good.  Didn’t get a real good look at him on running plays but he’s a solid pass blocker.  He’s just got a low center of gravity and uses great technique.  If he doesn’t start at center this year then I think he just plugs in next year and goes.  He might still Matt Allen’s spot this year which I’m fine with if that’s what it comes down to.  It’s good to know that it appears that Lewis can push both Matthews and Allen.
  • All in all this line looked decent on Saturday night.  Don’t take it as things are hunky dory as there are still issues but if they played like they did on Saturday night all season we can easily get to a bowl game and a half decent one.  They didn’t dominate but they did a nice job of engaging their man on run plays and creating some semblance of a pocket on pass plays.
  • I hate saying this next thing but Cyrus Gray is no Christine Michael.  I don’t mean that as slight to Cyrus as he seems like such a great guy and team player.  I think we’ve gotten spoiled with the explosiveness in guys like Goodson and saw it early on in Michael.  Without CM suited up it became painfully obvious what Cyrus is missing.  He’s not a horrible back by any stretch as I think he’d start on several other Big XII games but he just lacks the explosiveness of a featured back.  What Cyrus does well is make cuts and shift.  Think of him like a healthy Courtney Lewis but without the acceleration.  Against good teams he’s never going to break one off out of nothing and I don’t see him ever really carrying a team.
  • I was actually really impressed with Bradley Stephens.  He’s more explosive than Cyrus and looks to be somewhere between Cyrus and Christine.  I know he’s had issues holding onto the ball but I would actually feel decent about a Cyrus/Bradley tandem if we had a better OLine.  We don’t have that so let’s just feature CMike from here on out.
  • There’s not much else to say about the offense as they put up 56 points.  And that was without their two best playmakers in Christine Michael and Jeff Fuller.  Let’s hope they keep this.

Defense:

  • Overall this was a VERY good defensive performance.  Joe Webb (UAB QB) is no slouch and the special teams turned the ball over at some key points to really shorten the field and put the defense in a bind which the defense worked out of.  It was not a dominating performance but it was a VERY good performance.
  • It’s hard to really point out any one person as it was a true team effort.  Seriously.  11 guys playing their assignments, getting to the ball, and making the tackle.  UAB scored points but let’s just realize that we don’t have the experienced talent it takes to shut teams out for four quarters.  Maybe in two years but not right now.
  • We do have a severe weakness in that we’re weak up the middle.  I think some of this is by design as Kines has consistently given some slack up the middle.  I think it’s just him trying to eliminate the big play over the top and keep his defense playing side line to side line.
  • As always, Von Miller looked good but I think his days of getting sack after sack are over as he’s getting more double teams and the competition will only get better.  Don’t get me wrong as he still got 2 Saturday night but I think more and more teams will commit more resources to him and he won’t be as disruptive as he’s been in these first three games.  That’s actually a good thing as two people on Von means we have better coverage or opportunity elsewhere.  Let’s hope some others can step up.  You’ll still see Von applying pressure but it’s going to get harder and harder on him.
  • Outside of giving up yardage in the middle the DLine looked decent.  I thought Matt Moss did a great job opposite Von and I think the guys inside actually do a pretty good job considering I rail on this defense for giving up yards up the middle.
  • All of the linebackers looked solid but not yet spectacular.  This group is leaps and bounds of where they were last year but they still have a ways to go to being one of the top LB corps in the country which is where we ultimately want get back to.  Each one will have a great play each game but they’re not disruptive by any stretch all game and that’s where I think we have to get back to.  I think Kines is not attempting to try and make them disruptive as he doesn’t want to give up the big play.
  • Same thing with the secondary.  Very solid but not yet spectacular.  Don’t get me wrong in that this group played a very solid game but they’re not quite disruptive of where the Wrecking Crew used to be.  I would have to go back and look at the stats but I’m not sure this secondary has an interception yet.  They have some fumble recoveries but I’m racking my brain trying to remember an interception by the secondary and can’t think of one right now.  You don’t need interceptions to be good but I do feel you need interceptions out of your secondary to be great.  At the same time, you never want to trade interceptions for touchdowns as TDs burn you much more.
  • Tackling – This can’t be talked about enough in that this crew tackles 100X better than last year.  It’s not even close.  This defense is fundamentally sound and they can bring down the guy with the ball.  A lot of this has to do with being in better position and having speed to get to the ball carrier but it’s good to see these guys bringing ball carriers down with initial contact.
  • 3rd Downs – I need to go look at the stats to see exactly how good they were but this defense did a damn good job getting off the field on 3rd downs.  This is probably the best stat for a defense (outside of points obviously) as I don’t care how many yards you give up if you’re getting off the field on third downs.  Not only does it give you the ball back but it keeps your defense fresh.  This was a huge problem last year and what ultimately led to our second half collapses.  So far they’ve been really good in getting off the field on third downs and that’s great to see.
  • Don’t worry about yards given up by this defense.  It’s going to happen. Focus on the score given up and 3rd down holds.  I’m convinced that’s all Joe Kines cares about.  He’ll give you yards on 1st and 2nd down but he’s going to do everything he can to get his defense off the field on 3rd down.  Same thing with points.  He’s going to try and keep you outside of the red zone but if you get there he’s going to do everything he can to keep you to a field goal.

Looking at Arkansas:

This is not a big game by any stretch but I think it’s safe to say that this is the biggest game since Miami in 2007.  We’re playing a name team on national television so we can get some good pub if we do well.  We’ll be opposite of OU/Miami so we won’t get that much national pub but it’s better than nothing.  We win this game and we’re clearly on the road to a bowl game and maybe even something on the level of the Alamo Bowl.

I’ve watched the highlights of Akry in their first two games and then the first half against Bama.  Here’s what I’ve learned:

1)      Their OLine is not that great.

2)      Their defense is not that great.

3)      Ryan Mallett can throw like a mother.

4)      They don’t have a dominant running back.

If we play like we’ve played then this is a VERY winnable game.  The talent is very equal so it’s all going to come down to preparation and scheme.  In my mind this is clearly a game that will be won by the coaching staff unless one of the QBs can’t hit the broad side of a barn then it will be on the QB.  Make no mistake as this game will be won by the coaching staffs and the QB play.

It’s going to be a shoot out for the most part and we won’t be able to win if JJ isn’t hitting his guys.  If JJ plays like he did against Utah St. then we lose.  If he plays like he’s played against New Mexico and UAB then we win.

I do think Sherm and Co. have to come up with a slightly different scheme offensively for this game.  Not a drastic one but they need to introduce a new set besides the bunch formation.  It’s served them well but I think they need something to surprise and give Arkansas something to think about.

My prediction – Aggies 45, Arky 35

I don’t feel good about it as neither team has had enough games to truly see what’s going on but I think we win based on what I’ve seen in the first three games.  And just so you know I didn’t think there was a chance in hell we could win this game coming into the season based on how both teams closed out last year.

Thoughts on New Mexico

First off, let me say that 41-6 is 41-6.  Offense scored a ton of points and the defense pitched a shutout related to touchdowns.  Not much more can you ask for coming off a 4-8 season and with as much as youth as the Aggies ran out there on Saturday night.  Great win, great feeling knowing you whipped the opponent who came into Kyle.  It’s still New Mexico (I bet Fran was confused on who to root for) but we didn’t see anything near this last year.  Kudos to Sherman and the players.

I’m just going to hit random bullets for each phase of the game.

Offense:

  • Statistically JJ had an AMAZING game and he did.  The only thing I would fault him for is he’s not real good in the short game.  He had 3-4 passes where he had a guy wide open less than 15-20 yards away from him and he either floated it or put in the dirt.  He’s got to complete those if he wants to be great.  Regardless, he had a great game.  The other amazing thing that JJ can do is roll to his left and get off a great pass.  That’s a pretty special trait.
  • Jeff Fuller is a flat out stud.  What’s amazing about him last night is that I think he caught 11 balls but it was so workman like.  No big plays.  He just went out and played ball.  That’s honestly what we need out of him.  Chewing up 4-15 yards a catch will do this offense more good than last year where it seemed like he and JJ just wanted to play the long ball.  He needs to draw the double teams but still be able to keep the ball moving.  He didn’t really draw many double teams last night but he kept the ball moving.  Great game for him.  His TD was a thing of beauty.  For whatever reason UNM decided to run zone coverage on that play.  JJ realized it and simply hit Jeff on his cut for a TD.  You can’t run zone on JJ in the red zone.  Great game for Fuller.
  • Tanneyhill (sic) is unreal.  He probably saw 10 snaps but 3 of those were converting 3rd downs of longer than 7 yards.  His knack for finding the defenses weak spot is unreal.  He might just be better reading the defense on the sideline and then coming in to exploit them.  I think it was obvious by Saturday night that he wants to be on the field.  I think there’s an outside chance that he could be our starting QB at some point this season (not due to injury – I just worry about JJ against the better defenses like you saw down the stretch last year) but the kid is a flat out baller.  I’ve NEVER seen anyone come off the bench on a 3rd and long and convert it like him.  It’s unreal.  He comes off the bench, gets a first, and heads back to the sidelines.  Unreal.
  • All of the freshman receivers looked solid.  EZ looked the best but that’s mainly because he got the most PT.  Brandal looked good and Kenric had a nice TD reception.  Kudos to Sherman and his staff for getting these kids and getting them coached up.
  • Evidently Bradley Stephens had a solid run in the 4th quarter.  Don’t know as I elected to hit the tailgate and the end of the OU/BYU game about mid-way through the 4th quarter.  Blame Bill Byrne as not ONCE during the game did I get an update on the Baylor or Tech game and only got first half reports of the OU game.  For some reason they were running the scores of the other Big XII opponents but not the South.  That’s why I left early as I like to be a well rounded college football fan.  Plus, there was beer at the tailgate.  I’m probably more of a fan of beer than college football but they’re neck and neck.  Either way I’m mad at Bill for keeping those Big XII scores from me.
  • Running game took a while to get on track which I’ll hit on later but Cyrus Gray looked decent.
  • Christine Michael – BOY HOWDY!!!  If you follow recruiting you’ll know that it’s uncertain if we got him because we recruited him the hardest or because tu and LSU really never showed him the love.  If it’s the latter then Les and Mack are IDIOTS!  Most of you know my man love for Mike Goodson (Did you know he once outran the Miami MFen’ Defense) and Christine is on that level.  He’s different than Mike in Christine has this acceleration that Mike didn’t have and a spin move that’s out of control.  In addition, his pad height is low which I hear gives Big Sherm a Big Wood.  I feel bad for Cyrus and Bradley as you can’t keep this kid off the field.  I truly feel like we’re looking at a first round pick in a few years like Knowshown Moreno.  I don’t think there’s a freshman (true or RS) in the Big XII on CMike’s level.  Sometimes you’re good and get kids like this and sometimes you’re lucky.  I don’t care how we got him as I’m just glad he’s in maroon.
  • Now is where we get to the negatives and it’s called the offense line.  Despite the 41 points the greatest thing that bothered me was the play in the first half.  We came out in the no huddle and obviously had UNM on the heels not expecting it as we easily scored on the first drive.  After that drive we kept trying to establish the run and UNM wouldn’t let us.  Not good, folks.  Our Oline could not establish the run game against a decent UNM DLine.  That’s a serious concern.  We really struggled offensively after that first drive but luckily we were able to open it up with the pass and off we went.
  • Individually the best performer might be Mike Shumard as I didn’t see him make any mistakes.  Of course, he might have simply been helping all night which doesn’t hurt as you don’t get exposed.
  • Matt Allen is apparently in the running for the Aldo DeLaGarza Transfer Achievement Award.  This award is for an OL transfer that came from a major program that never lived up to the hype.  It was his first game as an Aggie so he deserves a break but if he doesn’t clean up his act then he’s going to be on that level with Aldo.  I think he was responsible for 4 calls resulting in 40 yards of penalties.  That ain’t good folks.  In addition there were a few time I saw him either whiff on a blitz pick up or whiff on a defender when pulling.  That’s not what you want with a guard.
  • Grimey played most of the game except for one play where he got hurt on the previous play on the sidelines.  It still confuses me on how Sherman thinks he can shirt Scales and Barrera with the classes he has coming in.  Grimey actually played a decent game but I don’t think he’s going to be able to hold up all season.  Let’s realize that and get ready for it.
  • Danny Baker actually did pretty decent.  A former player told me he’s the meanest guy on the OLine and that’s good enough for me.  He won’t be all Big XII but if he can hold the fort for a season until Scales or Matthews is ready then that’s okay with me.  He didn’t look great but he did look better than any LT we had last season so it’s all relative.
  • I hate saying this because his brother is such a great recruit but I’d be shocked if Patrick Lewis isn’t our starting center by the middle of the season.  Kevin Matthews is decent enough but he just doesn’t have the physical strength even though he does have great technique.  UNM shaded him the entire game and did a number on him for the most part.  Kevin did well enough but he was definitely on the receiving end most of the night.  I worry what other Big XII teams are going to do to him.  Kevin would be fine under most circumstances but I think Pat Lewis is just that big of a stud at the C position.  I’m just saying don’t be shocked to see Lewis starting at some point this season.
  • We all know this but it was painfully obvious on Saturday night that this OL still has a ways to go.  The coaches did do a nice job utilizing the power sweep to the short side after a big gain using the no huddle and I really think that helped open up the running game.  Not sure we can simply establish a between the tackles type game with this crew.  Against lesser teams yes, but most of the Big XII opponents are going to be pretty tough to get it going.  If Sherman is going to be bull headed about establishing it like he was last year then he’s going to lose 2 games he shouldn’t.  For this team, the pass has to set up the run.
  • Did I tell you I went for beer in the 4th quarter so I can’t really write about the second teamers?

Defense:

For those of you that subscribed to my service last year (okay, didn’t tell me to quit wasting your time) you’ll know I ALWAYS claimed Joe Kines got a bad rap.  I always talked about how Kines essentially pitched to contact and essentially got clowned because the offensive side of the equation couldn’t get a first down exposing his defense to too much time on the field and feeling beaten before it was over.

Well Joe Kines pitched a beauty Saturday night thanks to the offense staying on the field and giving his defense some rest and motivation to dominate.  When your defense doesn’t give up a TD no matter who the opponent is you’ve done something good.  All in all this is a different defense than last year.  Joe Kines found some speed and used it to his advantage.  Say what you want but I think Joe Kines is the best coach on our staff including Sherman.  I’m not kidding.

  • Let’s get this out of the way – Von Miller is a pass rushing freak.  We all heard the stories in the off season but I was always interested to see how it would play out on the field since our OL is so suspect.  Well, Von had 3 sacks and they were legit sacks.  What impressed me about Von on Saturday night was that he played smart and wasn’t always looking to fly around the left tackle.  There were times he stopped his rush and cut up inside to take a line to the QB.  He’s also very good about not rounding off his rush and can cut in after blowing by the OT.  He’s not going to get 3 sacks every game which is fine because defenses will now have to scheme against him.  What was interesting is that he really only played on passing downs as Featherston actually started and played on 1st and 2nd downs.  The other thing to get ready for on Von is late hits on the QB.  The kid is such a freak that he can’t shut it down when he gets the line and it’s going to cause him to hit the QB late.  It’s not cheap but it’s going to happen.  If it’s a 3 to 1 ratio like it was on Friday night then I’ll probably take it.
  • All in all this defense played MUCH faster on Saturday night.  Lots of youth on the field but they all looked good.  They’re not big but they’re fast and that’s what we need right now for all of these spread offenses in the Big XII.
  • TACKLING – Holy cow this crew actually tackled on Saturday night.  Probably the greatest thing I saw in the game on either side of the ball.  They were hitting and wrapping up and they looked damn good doing it.  They were swarming to the ball and actually bringing down the guy with the ball.  It was refreshing to see.
  • Linebackers – As a whole this crew looked LIGHT YEARS ahead of last season.  Mangan looked pretty good but the rest of the guys looked really good.  Garrick Williams probably looked the best.  He was just all over the field and making tackles.  Looked really confident out there.  Jonathan Stewart looks the part and played the part as well when he was in there.  The other guy I was impressed with was Sean Porter.  I thought this kid would be too small to play LB but he moves well which helps him a ton and will help us a ton against pass teams.  Ricky Cavanaugh didn’t really stand out to me but that doesn’t mean he didn’t have a good game.  Lots of youth out there on Saturday night as Williams and Cavanaugh were your graybeards out there and they’re only Sophomores.  This crew should just get better and better which is something we haven’t been able to say about our LBs in a LONG time.
  • The defensive line as a whole looked pretty good but this wasn’t the type of offense to let those guys shine or get exposed.  UNM ran a lot of spread trying to play catch up so they didn’t run much up the middle and the QB didn’t hold the ball too long.  I though the DTs with the Eddies and Lucas looked pretty solid.  Matt Moss was solid on the outside.  Spencer Nealy looked GREAT.  This kid looks like a recruiting steal.  He looks like the kind of player you have to get in a program to be really great.  He’s not a dominant guy but he’s the kind of guy to come off the bench and really just give the OL a few plays of just having to go full blast which helps wear them down.
  • There weren’t too many deep balls and I really didn’t watch the coverage too much as I watched the line and backers most of the time.  It did bother me one time where UNM had 3rd and 3 and TFred was playing off the ball about 8 yards which UNM then exploited for a 4 yard pass and a first down.
  • The stats show it but before we get too excited about this defense lets not forget that they got a TON of help from the Aggie offense moving the chains and getting time of possession while forcing UNM to play catch up.  They got screwed last year statistically so it’s nice to see them have a great statistical game.  All in all though this is a much better defense and they deserve GREAT credit for a well played game.

Special Teams:

  • Not much to report on here as it looked they were working on different things throughout the game.  Bullock hit a couple field goals.

I still say a great coach gets us to 6 wins this season and we look on our way.  We should have 5 wins in UNM, Utah St., UAB, ISU, and KSU.  That hasn’t changed.  CU looked like HELL the other night and Baylor looked solid in the first half.  I still think we can win one of those.  I still think there’s an outside chance we can beat Arky or Tech and don’t stand a chance against OU, tu, or OSU.  If Sherman is a great coach he’ll get us to 6 wins and in a bowl game.

What I Love About Tommy Tubberville

First off, let me state I have no inside knowledge of the current Tubberville situation and only know what I’ve read on websites (credible and not).  I think I have enough information to know that Tubs called out the Auburn administration.  I personally think the Auburn administration was going behind his back again to see what coaches were interested.  I think Tubs realized this and said something to the effect of, “Screw this.  If you don’t want me just give my $6 million and lets move on as you’re not running me off so let’s just get this over with.”  I don’t think the Auburn administration had any intention of letting him go until they knew what coach(es) they could get.  I really think Tubs forced their hand .  Kudos to Tubs for getting out of the mess and most importantly not letting his players dangle in the wind because the Auburn administration is acting like a cheating spouse hitting on other coaching candidates.  Plus, Tubs just got a $6 million lottery ticket that he bought last season.

By all accounts I think Auburn wants Muschamp or Leach while checking on that old flame Bobby Petrino.  I don’t think Petrino is stupid enough to leave an Arkansas program he just joined after all of his drama last season.  Plus, his team was getting better as the season wore on so I don’t think he’d wants to go through another adjustment year.

As for Muschamp, his wife is an Auburn alum but he was just named the “Coach in Waiting” in Austin.  I think it’s obvious that title was given just because Mack and Co. knew the interest in Muschamp was so high and they didn’t want to establish a crazy benchmark for paying a standard DC.  It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Muschamp as I know his wife enjoys living in Austin but she did go to Auburn and he coached there.

Then there’s Leach.  He’s obviously interested in UW and by some reports, his agent indicated Leach and Tech haven’t had any discussions related to an extension.  My guess is Myers has told Leach and his agent that they want to extend him but haven’t officially extended him anything.  My guess is the agent’s thoughts are that until there’s an extension on the table discussions can’t really take place.  Sounds like a good agent when other programs have interest.  All things equal I think Auburn loses out to UW for a guy like Leach.  He seems more like a West Coast guy and I could see him living in Seattle.  Not saying he won’t take Auburn over Tech but I think he’d prefer UW over Auburn because Leach knows he can be successful anywhere.

If Auburn misses on Leach or Muschamp I have no idea who they get.

My prediction – They money whip Will Muschamp just like Bama did with Nick Saban.  They’ll fall on their face for a week or two and then just offer so much money to Muschamp that he can’t turn it down.

Back to Tubs – This guy played this thing perfectly.  According to reports from last season , A&M was going to make a serious run at him.  Auburn stepped in and gave him that big extension with the $6 million buyout to help prevent his leaving which worked because A&M backed down and hired Sherman.  One year later Tubs calls the Auburn administration on the carpet because they’re flirting again and got his $6 million lottery ticket.  Now he doesn’t have to deal with the drama of wondering every year what’s going to happen with his job.  He’s got enough confidence he knows he can go somewhere and probably do well.  Tubs is about as solid as they come from a coaching standpoint.

I still also believe that Auburn was flirting with Petrino last season.  I think the Auburn admin thought they could get Petrino again and Tubs would be happy going to A&M so Tubs could just be let go with no penalty for Auburn.  At some point Petrino got cold feet and Auburn freaked because Tubs could be leaving so they gave him that extension because it looked like Petrino wasn’t coming back to college.  Two weeks later Petrino had a change of heart related to the NFL and wound up at Arkansas.  Auburn was miffed because Arky had Petrino and they were stuck with poor old Tubs.  I personally think had A&M extended out their search for a couple of weeks then Tubs would be in Aggieland and Petrino would be in Auburn.  Tubs wanted out last year and Auburn wanted Petrino but Petrino was the only one that was uncertain when the pieces needed to fall.

Whatever is really going on it’s just good drama and Tubs is a richer man without the headache this morning.  That’s why I love the man.

Early 2009 Texas A&M Football Predictions

Attainable Results:

New Mexico – Win
Utah State – Win
UAB – Win
Arkansas – Loss
Ok. State – Loss
KSU – Win
Texas Tech – Loss
ISU – Win
CU – Win
OU – Loss
BU – Loss
Texas – Loss

I think the Baylor and Colorado games are interchangeable as I could see us winning in Boulder but we haven’t really done so in the past.  I can see us beating Baylor but I’m not sure.  Either way, I don’t see any reason why Sherm should go less than 6-6.  Anything less (and it’s completely possible) and he should be dismissed in year 2.  His first three games at home are gimmees as are his conference games with KSU and ISU so that’s five wins in his pocket.  I know no games are gimmees with A&M football anymore but in his second year there’s no excuse to lose any of these five games if we’re going to get this thing turned around.  He should be able to find one win in the other 7 if he’s truly going to be great here.

I personally think he goes 6-6 in 2008 and get his third year at the helm.

Outstanding Season:

New Mexico – Win
Utah State – Win
UAB – Win
Arkansas – Win
Ok. State – Loss
KSU – Win
Texas Tech – Loss
ISU – Win
CU – Win
OU – Loss
BU – Win
Texas – Loss

That’s 8-4 with losses to his Big 12 South counterparts except for Baylor.  Completely attainable in my mind.  Personally, I think this should be his measuring stick if he wants to be great.  This sets him up to go 9-3 or 10-2 in his third year and really get this thing turned around.

Crazy but Possible:

New Mexico – Win
Utah State – Win
UAB – Win
Arkansas – Win
Ok. State – Win
KSU – Win
Texas Tech – Loss
ISU – Win
CU – Win
OU – Loss
BU – Win
Texas – Loss

That’s 9-3 with his only losses going to OU and Tech on the road and Texas at home.  He beats OSU which seems like a tall task right now but it is at Kyle Field.  This would likely put him in the Holiday Bowl which would be nothing short of amazing in his second year.

Like I said, I fully expect him to go 6-6 and leave us wondering if/when he’s going to get it turned around.  I really don’t think 8-4 is out of the question if he’s going to make that leap to great.

Only time will tell.

A Look at 2008 First Year Coaches

Before Bill Byrne went on his “National Search”, these were the names I thought should be considered:

Butch Davis, Tom Tuberville, Mike Leach, Kevin Sumlin, Will Muschamp, Art Briles (I swear), Randy Edsell (UConn), and Ron Zook.  Not saying all of these guys should have been interviewed but their interest should have been gauged and due diligence on them done.  We’ll look at the first year of Sumlin and Briles since the others were already head coaches except for Muschamp and we all now what he’s become.

Other first year coaches will look at are Bo Pelini (NU), Bobby Petrino (Arky), Paul Johnson (Ga Tech), Rich Rod (Mich), and Rick Neuhesiel (UCLA).

Kevin Sumlin (7-5):

Sumlin took over an 8-5 UH team that lost to TCU in the mighty Texas Bowl.

In Sumlin’s first year he took the Coogs to a 7-5 record.  All five of their losses came on the “road” with a loss in Stillwater by 19 points in his second game (How did Sherm do there?), a loss to Air Force by 3 which was moved to Dallas to Hurrican Ike, a loss by 3 to Colorado St.,  by 14 points on a Tuesday night to Marshall, and then by 14 points to the Mighty Rice Owls (HOOT!  HOOT!).

Let’s throw out the Air Force game as that wasn’t fair with Ike and the loss to Marshall as playing on a Tuesday night on the road is not fair.  If you’ve ever looked at the results, the home team on a weeknight game wins like 58% of the time and covers the spread like 65% of the time.  The scores skew so far from the norm that there’s an obvious advantage to playing at home on weekday night.  Remember when Fran clowned the Bobcats from San Marcos?  Oh, wait.

We could probably throw out the Col. St. game as well since that was still one week after Ike and the entire city of Houston was still recovering.  The losses to Rice and OSU are legit so it’s safe to say Sumlin could have gone anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2 without Ike and the weeknight game on the road.

He had two impressive wins when he went in and beat East Carolina on the road when they were ranked in the Top 25 just coming off two Top 25 upsets themselves.  They also upset a Top 25 ranked Tulas at home.  In fact, they clowned them 70-30.  That’s right, a 40 point victory over a Top 25 team.  UH will likely wind up in the Texas Bowl again so it’ll be interesting to see how they do.  All in all I’d say Sumlin did pretty decent considering the Ike circumstances.  He definitely played OSU closer than Sherman did in just his second game.

Art Briles (4-8):

Artimus took over a 3-9 Baylor program and most folks were snickering because Briles was below what A&M could hire.  At the time he seemed like a very Billy Gillispie hire in my book.  He has the same “aw shucks” demeanor and rose through the ranks of Texas high school and college assistant before getting an HC shot at a smaller Texas program and had decent success.

Briles only improved Baylor’s record by one game but let’s look at his 8 losses.  He got blown out at home in his first game to an at the time Top 25 Wake Forest when he trotted out three QBs before realizing Bob Griffin would be his man from then on.  He won his next two games blowing out both Northwestern State and Washington State.  Say what you want but Sherm didn’t blow anyone out as his win at ISU was only by 14 points.  Briles beat both of those teams by at least 28.

He would then take his team to Hartford, CT and see his team let a late lead slip away losing to UConn by 3 points.  Next came a blowout at home to OU by 32.  Sherm lost by 38.  He beat ISU at home by 28 and then traveled to Still water where he lost by 28 points which is the same as Sherm.  Next involved a 12 point loss in Lincoln where they actually lead at half time but couldn’t score any points in the second half.  Missouri visited Waco and snuck out with a 3 point victory.  Next was a 24 point loss in Austin.

The last two games included a 20 point thumping over Texas A&M and his final game was a 7 point loss in Lubbock where they lead by 14 at one point.

So in summary they lost 5 games by 12 or less with their greatest losses being 32 to OU, 28 on the road to OSU, and 24 in Austin.  Considering the talent of the programs they lost to I think Briles had a REMARKABLE first season.  4-8 might be 4-8 but I’ll take Briles’ 4-8 over Sherm’s 4-8 any day of the week.

If you’re an Aggie fan you should absolutely be steaming at what Briles did in Waco while seeing what Sherm did in College Station.  There is little doubt in my mind right now that Baylor made the better hire all because A&M was afraid to interview Briles because we thought we were better or smarter than that.

Bo Pelini (8-4):

Pelini took over a 5-7 Nebraska program that A&M beat last year and had arguably a worst defense than A&M.  Enter Bo Pelini and his crazy college experience and he took that crappy Nebraska team to an 8-4 record and closed out the season strong.

Pelini won his first game at home and suffered his first loss in questionable 30-35 loss to Va. Tech at home in prime time.  They woudl then get clowned at home by 35 points to then BCS contender Missouri.  The next week they pushed Tech to overtime in Lubbock only to lose by 6 points.  After that they would stomp ISU by 28, beat Baylor by 12,  lose to OU by 34 in Norman (Sherm 38 at home), beat Kansas by 10 at home, KSU by 28 in Manhattan, and then kind of lucking out with a 9 point victory over CU at home to close out the season.  They dominated CU statistically but CU had some big plays and NU had one HUGE bone headed fake kick that damn near cost them the game.

All of this has set Nebraska up for a Gator Bowl matchup with Ga. Tech for a battle of the first year coaches that over achieved.  Say what you want about playing in the North but it’s clear Bo Pelini is a better head coach right now than Mike Sherman.  Too bad he didn’t have any head coaching experience.

Bobby Petrino (5-7):

Bobby eeked out his first two wins over Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe but he did get the win.  He then got clowned by Bama, Texas, and Florida.  Next came an upset of Auburn on the road.  Next was a one point loss to UK in Lexington, a 2 point loss to Ole Miss, and then a 7 point win over a decent Tulsa team.  They then lost by 14 in Columbia, SC, 3 points to MSU in Starkville, and then beat LSU by 1 point at home.

Everyone wants to talk about how bad Arkansas was in Petrino’s first year but when you look at it, he did pretty damn good.  Sure he struggled in his first two wins but then got blown out by 3 of the Top 4 teams in the current BCS.  Is that so bad?

You take out those three games and he went 5-4.  Of his other 4 losses, three were within 3 points and the other was by 13.  I don’t think that’s bad at all in a tough SEC.  Say what you want but Bobby Petrino had a much better season than his record and three blowout games indicate.  His team definitely got better as the season went on which is a sign of a good coach.

Doesn’t bode well for A&M next season and I think it’s safe to say Arky hired the better coach.  Don’t be shocked to see Arkansas competing for the West division next season.

Paul Johnson (9-3):

Johnson took over a 7-6 Ga. Tech that lost their bowl game last season.  He went 9-3 with wins over BC, Clemson, FSU, Miami, and UGA.  In the brand name department that’s damn impressive in your first year.   The BC, Clemson, and UGA wins were on the road.  That’s outstanding for a first year head coach to do that on the road.  He destroyed Jacksonville St. at home in his first game which is an indicator of potential future success based on my research.  His greatest loss was to UNC by 21 points in Chapel Hill.  His other losses included a 3 point loss to Va. Tech in Blacksburg, and a 7 point loss to UVA at home.

Yep, Ga. Tech hired the better coach.

Rich Rod (3-9):

Rich Rod took over a 9-4 Michigan that won it’s bowl game.  He went 3-9 and got his ass beat by Notre Dame, Illinois, Penn State, and Ohio State.  The other losses were by less than 14 points and including by 2 points at home to Utah in his first game.  Uh oh.  Utah is a solid team though so it’s not that damning but it’s not good.  He lost by 3 at home to Toledo.  Yep.  3 points at home to Toledo.  The Michigan coach.  Lost to Toledo.  At home.  In his sixth game.  Not good.  His other losses included a 14 point loss at home to Michigan State, a 6 point loss to Purdue on the road, and a 7 point loss at home to Northwestern.

His three wins included a 10 point win at home over Miami of Ohio, a 2 point win over Wisconsin at home, and a 23 point win over Minnesota on the road.  He was 2-5 in games at The Big House and 1-4 on the road.  Hmmmmmmm, that sounds familiar with one less loss on the road.

I never really thought about it but Rich Rod could be a Fraud on the level of Coach Fran.  He ran a gimmick offense in a lesser conference that relied solely on getting talented guys that could run.  He did finish in the Top 10 in 2005 and 2006 while winning the Sugar and Gator Bowls respectively.  Now that’s much more impressive than Fran but the most amazing part is that with an opportunity to play for the National Championship he spit the bit and lost to a Pittsburgh team coached by Dave Wannestedt’s mustache at home.  Maybe he can’t get over the hump and will struggle in a legit conference where he might or might not get the two key people to run his offense.

There’s another similarity to Fran in that Rich Rod took over a big program that just let a very successful head coach go just because he’d become stale and their main rival had taken them to the woodshed and was playing for national championships.  I think the similarities between R.C. and Carr are pretty close.

Look at how he and Fran left their respective gigs.  Both where known flirters for other jobs prior to the season they left and left after one of their best seasons ever while leaving their players high and dry.  It’s okay if the fan base is upset with your leaving but when you don’t even feel welcome in the state you left by ANYONE something is wrong.  I think it’s safe to say West Virginia isn’t on Rich Rod’s favorite places to visit these days just like Fran will say with Alabama.

Not saying Rich Rod will fall on his face but I won’t be surprised if in five years he’s let go without ever accomplishing anything.  Maybe he can get a job after he’s done in 5 at UMich on ESPN Radio doing color commentary where he just interjects random thoughts in a nasaly pitched voice while having no rapport with his play by play guy.  That’s what Fran’s doing.

Maybe Rich Rod will be the exception but his first year doesn’t look good for future success.

Rick Neuheisel (4-8):

Neuheisel took over a 6-7 UCLA team that lost it’s bowl game.  He’ll go 4-8 as I assume he’ll get beat by USC.  I never quite understood this hire as it just seemed like getting the band back together.  I thought they were absolute fools for not hiring Mike Leach as he’d be perfect for this gig.  The yin to Pete Carrol’s yang while running the craziest offense in the Pac-10.  Hey, there’s safety in memories.

Rick started off his career with a pretty amazing overtime win over Tennessee or so it seemed but it quickly went downhill after that.  He was blown out 59-0 to BYU and then lost by 21 to Mike Stoops’ Arizona team at home.  He then lost by 5 points to Fresno St. at home.  Fresno is good but UCLA doesn’t need to be losing to that team at home.  His other losses included a 7 point loss to Oregon on the road, by 21 points to Cal in Berkley, by 28 points to Oregon St.  at home, and by 25 points to Arizona St. on the road.  That’s 5 losses by 21 points or more and that doesn’t included his pending game with USC.  Half his total games could be losses by more than 21 points which is just not good.

His wins are not really that impressive as Tennessee wound up not being that good, he beat a HORRIBLE Wash. St. team by 25 at home, Standford by 3 at home, and beat Washington by 20 in Seattle.  Not one of those is really that impressive.

All in all I’d say the Nueheisel hire is pretty close to Sherman.

It looks like everyone but Michigan and UCLA hired better coaches than A&M at the same time.  Only time will tell but it’s not looking good for A&M, Michigan, and UCLA so far.  Let’s come back and look at these coaches next year.

Second Year Coaching Benchmarks

As I’ve stated before, I think Butch Davis and Mike Dantonio are great measuring sticks for what Sherm should be.  I’d say they took over somwhat similar programs from a talent standpoint with the same resources.  The only real difference is they’re in easier conferences but I’d counter that with A&M has more talent to pick from when it comes to recruiting so it’s kind of a wash.

Butch Davis:

In his first year Butch Davis went 4-8 with all of his wins at home and only lost by more than 7 points twice and that was to ranked teams.  Not a great record but his team was obviously competitive in 10 of their 12 games.

So how did Butch do in 2008?  The envelope please.  8-4!!!

That’s right, Butch reversed his record and won 8 games.  He had one real stinker of a game when UNC lost to NC State at home by 31 points with the potential on the line to tie for the ACC Coastal Divison Championship even though they would have lost all head to heads so they couldn’t get to the championship game.

The other three games he lost where all by less than three points which includes 3 to eventual Coastal Co-Champ Va. Tech, 3 on the road to Virginia, and 2 on the road to Maryland.  I would say the losses to Virginia and Maryland are slight head scratchers as UNC wound up with a better record than both of those but they were on the road and they were obviously very competitive.

They’ll likely wind up in the Music City Bowl in Nashville against an SEC opponent like Vandy or in the Meineke Car Care Bowl against a Big East team like West Virginia.  Both great bowl tests for them even if the bowls aren’t that well known.

I can’t tell you how excited I’ll be in 2009 if Sherman goes 8-4 with only ONE blowout loss.  If he puts a big bowl win cherry on top then I might just get right back on that Shermwagon.

Mike Dantonio:

I don’t think most folks have any idea who this guy is but I would say Michigan State is a very comparable program to A&M.   In 2007, Dantonio took Michigan to a 7-5 record with a bowl loss to Boston College lead by Matt Ryan.  They only lost by 3 points in that bowl game.   Every other loss was less than 7 points so even in his first year he had the Spartans competitive.

So how did ol’ Mike do in 2008?  The envelope, please.  9-3 for the third place in the Big 11!!!

He did open up the  season with a loss but it was to Cal on the road in Berkley.  His other losses were flat blowouts to Ohio State by 38 at home and on the road in State College, PA by 31.  As a fan you don’t like the scores but at least it was to the top 2 teams in the conference and one was on the road.

All of this is likely good for a Capital One Bowl game appearance against Georgia which seems like it would be a HUGE test except no one has any idea what happened to UGA this year.  For A&M to duplicate this kind of season would be like losing to OU, tu, and Arkansas in 2009 to get a Cotton Bowl berth.  Folks, I’d have ZERO problems with that in year 2.

I know everyone is down on Aggie Football but honestly I don’t know why Sherm can’t duplicate something like what UNC did.  Sherm’s coming from a bigger hole but that’s his fault and if he’s going to turn this thing around I think he has to do something similar to what Butch Davis did.  He needs to win and win now and there’s proof that others have done it.  No more “woe is me” because of talent or any other lame excuse.

Thoughts from the tu Game

I had planned on writing up my thoughts from the game like I normally do but I just can’t do it. I think everyone saw the game and knows what’s going on. I still stand by my statement that Sherman deserves another year unless we can get Mike Leach. I know that’s not possible so I’ll fully support Sherman for another year while being critical. I want him to prove me wrong but I’m not seeing it.

As for Leach, I was driving back to Fort Worth on Saturday and listened to the game on the radio. Mike Leach deserves all kinds of credit for pulling that game off. It was a classic let down game against a team that was getting better each game (more on that later) while Tech was being decimated by injuries. Tech was down by 14 points at one point and lost probably the best player in the Big XII in Crabtree. They got a couple of lucky breaks thanks to penalties by Baylor that negated turnovers but Leach and his DC hung in there and pulled it out. That was not a cheap win by any stretch.

To the A&M/tu game:

  • Back on Turkey Night. I know some people don’t like this but I can’t tell you how great it was seeing the game featured on SportsCenter on Wed, Thur, and Friday. Sure, it wasn’t good for us but those of you that remember 1984 and 1985 will understand how great it will be when Aggie Football is back. There’s no better stage for us. My wife wasn’t completely excited about it as she wanted to spend more time with family but she’ll adjust. I think.
  • The I-Formation. I think this is the part that frustrates me the most about Sherman. He ran the I most of the game but there were three times that got me. It was the formation for the first play in each half as well as a 3rd and 11 in the 3rd quarter. All three times it went absolutely nowhere. What the hell was he thinking believing he could convert a third and 11 from the I formation? Sherman had a week and a half to prepare for this game and this is what he came up with. What did he do for those 10 days? Surely he could have been creative for those three moments. At least set the defense up to think you schemed differently for 10 days. That’s like Fran going option to the short side on 3rd and 3.
  • I saw Mike Shumard cut out the legs of the DE on the first drive of the game. I kid you not. He sawed the DE right down and I got giddy. 12 games into the season and Sherm’s vaunted OLine finally chopped someone down. Shumard actually played fairly decently for most of the game. Most of the offensive line struggles came up the middle. We just can’t establish the running game or a pocket but Sherman doesn’t seem to realize this.
  • I think the OLine play is the part that bothers me the most about Sherman. He’s supposed to be an OLine guru but this line has not developed AT ALL. I understand there have been plenty of injuries but in 12 games this line has NOT DEVELOPED. I also understand that Fran left Sherman in a bad way with numbers but this line has NOT DEVELOPED. In addition, they get flagged for false starts 12 games into the season. I played OLine in high school and my coach had two cardinal rules – 1) Hit someone. Even if you missed your assignment you better be blocking someone. You’d still get yelled at if you blew your assignment but if you were at least hitting someone you wouldn’t get yelled at as loud. To this OLine’s credit they do a better job of that than they did last year. 2) No penalties. This included false starts and holding calls. Our rule was that the line was one unit and we got two penalties a game with no repercussions. After that we had to do these awful drills called “Back, backs” where we had to drive the blocking sleds backwards. We had 4 penalties in our second game and we did “Back, backs” for 15 minutes. Needless to say, we didn’t do anymore “Back, backs” for the rest of the season. Sherman’s OLine is not disciplined and you can blame the players all you want but I see this on the coaching staff. They have to instill confidence and discipline. It’s not there.
  • I’m glad I was there for Mike’s last game as an Aggie. I’m glad he almost broke a 90 yard reception for one last memory. Unfortunately, Earl Thomas had an angle and happens to be fast as well so Mike couldn’t outrun it. Until that moment the offense hadn’t done jack. Say what you want about Stephen McGee but Mike Goodson is the reason we beat the sips in 2006. Not only did he get that first TD but he had two long 3rd down runs on “The Drive” that would not have happened without Mike coming along. I’ll never forget standing in the end zone of DKRMS watching those two runs and realizing how special he was. I’m gonna miss the kid despite all the criticism of injury and not being an every down back. If you don’t think he’s gone then you’re fooling yourself as I don’t think he’s been going to class which explains why Keondra has played so much and there’s really nothing for him to come back to.
  • Bag on Joe Kines all you want, but that man did everything he could for as long as he could. For 20 minutes of football the sips had only scored 7 points, 14 points for 25 minutes of football, and 21 points for 30 minutes. Meanwhile, the offense of the team he coached went three and out on its first three possessions and then settled for a field goal on a 4th and short on their fourth and final drive of the half. (Won’t even get into that decision) If the offense does anything then it’s likely that game goes to half tied or down by 7 at the worst. I told my wife at halftime that the final score would be 56-17 as our defensive dam was about to burst and our offense would still be inept. I was ~7 points off on each side.
  • We have no idea how lucky we are to have Trent Hunter for three more seasons. If Sherman does anything defensively it’s going to because this kid is leading the secondary. Kudos to Sherman for landing the kid and realizing he needed to be on the field.
  • Von Miller had a hellacious knock on Colt McCoy. I don’t know what it takes but you find a way to spring this kid. In two seasons he’s put licks on Harrell and McCoy that have caused them to get up gingerly. I’m not advocating late hits by any stretch or injuring anyone but you have to find a way to spring this kid. Don’t worry about him covering people. Line him up and let him be the focal point of the offense’s pass blocking scheme. If they screw up they’ll know their QB is going to pay. If they’re going to turn just let Von contain and have the LBs fill. Oh wait, we need LBs. Either way, turn the kid into a pass rushing machine.
  • This is going to sound stupid but I knew we were done when the sips ran on the field. For those of you that haven’t been to a game at DKRMS the teams come on the field from opposite sides. The sips come out from the South end zone and the visiting team comes out from the Northwest corner. A&M was huddled up in the NW corner ready to release as the sips came on the field. The sips ran to the North end zone and lined up across ¾ of the goal line taking a knee blocking A&M’s path to their sideline. It was clear what the sips were doing and I don’t blame them one bit. I know they were praying but it was an act of intimidation and confrontation by the sips. Make no mistake they knew what they were doing. Our team stood idly by while it happened and finally showed some fight at the end which is what you saw on TV. It took way too long for that confrontation to happen. A coach with nuts would have released his team to get in the face of the sips way sooner. This team had no fight from the beginning and that has to change. Same thing goes for Harrel’s late TD and McCoy’s last running TD where Batson could have lit the guy up but just kind of gingerly tackled him while McCoy was going into the end zone. Once again, I’m not advocating late or dirty hits but it is a painful game and you better be ready to make your opponent pay when the opportunity is presented. The great Aggie teams had swagger and confidence and it’s clearly missing here. Somewhere along the way the sips got some of it and intimated us before the game ever started.
  • One knock I do have on our defense is the DEs biting on the ball fake in the zone read. I don’t know if that’s by design but they’re HORRIBLE at containing on the zone read. It’s just like defending the option. Stay home as grabbing them from behind ain’t really going to slow them down. If your interior holds then you can still get there in time if you’re certain the RB has the ball but don’t go down until you know the QB has released the ball.
  • As much as I’ve railed on McGee this season I was glad to see him getting some PT in his final game. I don’t agree with his getting in the face of the tu player that sacked him as it was a clean hit and he wasn’t celebrating anywhere near him. I didn’t even see what was going on until I heard the crowd as McGee and the celebration was so far apart that McGee went and found him. It’s his final game against a team he’s had his greatest moments so I can’t completely blame him. You’re a good Ag, #7 and I’m sorry that Fran ruined you.
  • JJ to Jeff Fuller. I don’t care if it was garbage time as those two are going to be very important to Aggie Football’s future.
  • Speaking of WR, that group deserves credit for being the most improved unit for the season. If the rest of the team showed the improvement that WR corp showed then we might be bowling. Fuller, Tannehill, and the two McCoys really stepped up and developed over the course of the season.
  • It was kind of sad seeing McGee, Lane, and Goodson on the field for one last time. It’s amazing to think what we could have been had Fran been a better head coach with those guys as the foundation for 2008.

Honestly, there’s not much else to talk about as it’s just disheartening knowing what’s coming and seeing it happen. I think the oddest thing was that in 15 years of attending this game both home and away I’ve never seen the sips sympathetic when we lost. The only thing I can equate it to is after the 2005 game where they tight as a drum in McGee’s starting debut. They know they earned a win that day to keep their MNC hopes alive.

This game was similar but different in that I had a bunch of Texas fans ask me after the game what had happened to A&M football. They were genuinely concerned for Aggie Football because it felt strange whipping a hopeless team. We went out on Sixth Street after the game and didn’t have anyone talk trash to us at all. Even before the game we hit a bar and just had a couple folks ask us if we were going to the game, from College Station, or wanted to change shirts before going in a joking manner. I’m used to people genuinely hating me when I wear maroon in Austin the day of the game. Most people were good natured ribbing us and asking what happened to Aggie Football. It’s like we’re terminal or got hit by a car. I even had a couple of shots bought for me because they felt Aggie fans needed it. I wasn’t even crying. Very surreal and I don’t like it one bit. I want to return to the day where we genuinely hate each other because there’s something on the line.

I still stand by my statement that I won’t feel good about Sherman until he wins a bowl game next season and finishes in the Top 25 in his third season. He dug himself a HUGE hole and he needs to see some immediate success to turn around recruiting. He can’t just skate by going 6-6 and 8-4 over the next two seasons. He needs some late season success because as you’ll see the great coaches get better as the season wears on regardless of the schedule. I firmly believe Sherm walked into the situation not knowing what college football had become both on the field and in recruiting. He’s now been head coach for 12 months which is plenty of time for him start turning this thing around.

As for his coordinators, I think Joe Kines actually deserves to stay. The last thing this team needs is turnover at the DC spot. If Kines is committed for another 3-4 years then by all means let him stay. The only coach I can see potentially moving on is Buddy Wyatt which pains me to say as he’s from my hometown and really likes A&M. However, if there’s one unit on the field that truly underperformed then it’s the DLine.

Offensively, I personally hope Cromwell moves on and Sherm hires either the OC at UH that was the OC under Leach or the OC from Tulsa just so Sherm can get some serious spread input into his scheme. I still don’t feel he’ll ever be successful with a true I formation just like Fran wasn’t successful with the option. He needs to learn the spread as that’s what most of the high schools in Texas are running and most Big XII teams which is why you see the Big XII QBs getting all the press except for A&M. If Sherm is going to be stubborn like Fran then he’ll see the door like Fran and never get another get a head coaching gig again or have any kind of legacy anywhere. I also think Sherm needs to get a truly awesome special teams coach. Go find the craziest high school head coach you can find that’s had some measure of success and get him on your staff to focus on special teams. It’ll also help with recruiting. I’m not kidding.

I’m definitely not shutting the door on Sherm being successful but he’s going to have to make adjustments and hire some folks he’s not comfortable with but are damn good coaches. It’s what Mack’s done twice in his most successful seasons. He simply went out and got the best DC he could hire at the time and obviously had no prior relationship with. Not saying he should do it with his DC but he should do it with his OC. It’s not a knock on Cromwell at all as his work with the WR corp has been absolutely amazing but I just don’t think he understands the college game right now and we don’t have the time to allow him to learn. It’s time for Sherm as an old dog to learn new tricks from an offensive standpoint.

Thoughts From the Baylor Game

I didn’t write any thoughts from the OU game mainly because I didn’t feel there was anything to write about.  We got our butts whooped plain and simple.  Outside of Cyrus Gray’s efforts there wasn’t that much positive in what OU did to us.  I didn’t want to waste any effort writing about it.  I feel much the same way after yesterday’s game but think it might be cathartic to write about it so here goes.

 

My wife and I made the journey down I-35 yesterday to the game.  We’re 60-90 minutes further from Aggieland in Fort Worth than Houston but we’re about 75 minutes from Waco.  I guess that’s a positive.  It makes that drive after a Baylor loss a little more bearable.  Notice I said little.

 

For this write up I’m going to get to do my usual style of Offense, Defense, and Special Teams.  I’m adding a special section on Coaching and Where I’d Go From Here.

 

Offense:

 

·        Normally I write about Mike Goodson here and quite honestly I’ll do it again because he had the greatest play by an Aggie offensive player when he made an amazing catch on a 51 yard pass that took him to the 1 yard line.  Not sure why he’s not getting more touches but he’s not.  Mike had some very solid swing passes where he’d gain anywhere from 4-12 yards.  The kid is special.  One more game folks and he’s gone.  I don’t know why he’d come back at this point.  Someone will take the kid.

·        Second post always goes to JJ.  We had 5 turnovers yesterday and 3 of those he’s responsible for.  The other 2 were due mainly due to tipped passes.  He’s had less and less time in the pocket since the second half of the Tech game.  I will say his biggest mistake yesterday was not recognizing the pressure and dumping the ball sooner.  He spent way too much time looking downfield trying to gain more yardage and he’s just not getting the time he needs to do so.  He has to learn to dump the ball sooner.  He’s definitely played better games but he’s getting less and less time in the pocket every game.

·        The offensive line.  I don’t even want to go there but I feel I have to.  I think the best illustration of what’s going on here is the time Baylor brought 8 guys on a flat out blitz and the offensive linemen whiffed on 6 of them.  I kid you not.  There 5-6 Bears in the offensive backfield and we had 3 of our lineman just standing around.  Some of that’s talent but some of that is coaching in not learning how to pick up blitzes.  At least make contact with someone.  The other thing I noticed was the offensive linemen pulling into space and not picking anyone up.  There’s no attempt to chop block or really make contact as they just kind of cruise out there like my dogs at the dog park just kind of running free with no real purpose.

·        Surprisingly we have a really good core group of receivers.  Fuller, Tannehill, and T. McCoy are really looking good.  Jamie McCoy had his usual solid catches but he also had a couple of drops.  All in all the receivers looked decent when we could get them the ball.  This group without a doubt has progressed the most of any group through 11 games.  Credit to Cromwell for that.

·        Other than that, not much here as this staff is just not giving this group a chance to win games which I’ll touch on later.

 

Special Teams:

 

  • Let me give HUGE credit to E.J. Shankle here.  I’ve bagged on this guy not having good hands but this kid has been nails on punt coverage as a gunner.  He simply blows by the defender as the gunner and is consistently near the punt returner when he gets the ball.  In addition, he’s not afraid to make some contact.  Love to see a kid embracing his role on the team and Shankle deserves HUGE credit here.
  • We got a punt block.  Not to take anything away from that but I do have to say we looked really confused on what to do with the ball bouncing around.  No one really knew if they should fall on it or run with it.
  • Probably the most disheartening part of the game for me was the fact that Baylor got to kick off so many times.  To make matters worse Gray and Stephens looked REALLY confused on who should be getting the ball.  In my mind that’s all coaching as there were at least 3 times when the ball either hit the ground or they really had no clue who should be catching it.  Now to their defense it was pretty windy and the ball wasn’t going to the same spot every time but when you’ve to two guys back there they need to figure out quickly who’s getting the ball.
  • We were offsides on our only onside kick attempt.  Folks, that’s coaching in my book.  I think what’s worse is that we only did one onside kick.  Our second TD was in complete garbage time and we had nothing to lose but we kick off instead of the onside.  If anything to just practice onside kicks in a game.  It’s not like we were saving face.  We weren’t covering the spread and we weren’t winning so let’s work on some things you don’t normally get the chance to.
  • Justin Brantley is solid.  I can’t wait to see 2 of the 32 NFL teams anchored by Aggie punters.  We’ve got that going for us.

 

Defense:

 

  • First off, let me say that this team takes WAY too much heat for the overall trouble of the team.  The offense is not helping these guys out one bit.  They actually played pretty decent in the first half as Baylor got two big plays when they converted a long third down that ultimately led to a Baylor TD and then when Kendall Wright made a pretty amazing TD catch right before half.  In the second half Jonathan Batson completely misplayed a deep ball he could have deflected or even picked off.  Once that TD happened the gates were open and the route was on.  I have to think Trent Hunter makes that play.  Either way we weren’t winning that game.
  • I have to give credit to Danny Gorrer as I have bagged on him in the past for poorly supporting the run and shying away from contact.  Something’s changed in him as he made some decent tackles yesterday so I want to give him a shout out since I normally bag on him.
  • Speaking of tackling, this team is just horrible at it.  Not only can they not arm tackle but they don’t know how to take anyone’s legs out.  Blame the last staff all you want but we’re 11 games into the season and the fundamentals still aren’t there.
  • In addition to tackling, we’re HORRIBLE at shedding blocks.  It seems like we’re so worried about losing site of the ball that we can’t anticipate where it’s going in order to fight off the blocker and make the play.  It’s horrible how tentative we are because it looks like we’re afraid we won’t see the ball if we try to shed the defender.  Once again, 11 games into the season and we’re lacking in fundamentals.
  • Other than that, not much else to speak of except that Matt Featherston had his named called quite a bit.  I guess that’s good.

 

Coaching:

 

  • At 11 games into the season we can’t keep blaming the players.  We just got destroyed by a Baylor program that is also in its first year with a head coach.  Plain and simple our coaching staff got out coached by a Baylor staff.  Can we really say they have more talent than us?  That game truly exposed the ineptitude of our coaching staff.
  • Here’s where I think the main issue is and it starts with the man at the top and the staff he’s assembled.  First off, he’s a pro coach that hasn’t coached college in 10+ seasons.  Because of that he has no idea how 7 on 7 has influenced the spread attack that is now prominent in Texas which is what stocks most Big XII schools.  He’s trying to run a system he’s familiar with but that his players have no idea about.  There’s a reason why fullback prospects don’t exist anymore in the entire state.  That position doesn’t exist anymore and TE is on its way out as well.  As it stands those are two of the most crucial positions in what Sherm is trying to do.
  • In addition to his unfamiliarity with the college game he went and hired an OC that has ZERO college experience and ZERO coordinating experience at any level.  I think Cromwell would have probably been a decent enough OC at the pro level but he’s never going to cut it at the college ranks.  I just don’t think he’ll ever get the talent in the state of Texas he’ll need to make their pro style system work.  I’m going to mention Kevin Sumlin later but guess who he went and hired to be his OC at UH this season?  The guy who was the OC at Tech for the last three seasons and spent a total of 8 seasons in Lubbock where he coached Wes Welker as inside receivers coach and then Graham Harrell the last three seasons as OC and QB coach.  Obviously Leach is the OC in Lubbock but I’m sure this guy has picked up a ton of knowledge along the way.  How Sumlin convinced him to leave Leach whom this guy actually played college ball for is beyond me but Sumlin got it done.  Sherm hired his buddy.
  • Defensively I’m actually okay with Kines.  I know he catches a ton of heat but if the Aggie offense was any better I swear the defense would probably average 100 yards less a game.
  • Outside of the staff there are a couple of things I just can’t get over.  The first is how our best offensive showing was the first half of the Tech game and since then we’ve gone away from it where Sherm keeps forcing the I formation which he obviously doesn’t have the personnel for.  Sure we beat two teams but that was a pitiful ISU team and if we don’t have the offensive outburst in the third quarter against CU we likely lose that game as well.  The I formation is going to be the same as Fran’s option.  It doesn’t scare anyone and its not working but yet we keep forcing ourselves to do it thinking it will break through at some point.  I wish I had the time to go back and see the average yards when we’re in the I formation.  I bet it’s not more than 2.5 yards.  I understand you have to establish the run to establish the pass but when everyone in the world knows what’s coming it’s not going to work.  The other thing that’s not working in the I formation is that JJ is dangerously staring down his target as he drops back.  That’s going to get jumped in the Texas game so get ready for it. 
  • The other thing that gets me about this staff is their decision to use certain people in situations.  I think my main concern is the concerted effort to use Keondra Smith so much.  I’m not bagging on the kid but when you have a Mike Goodson, Mike needs to be getting the ball in key situations.  The best example I can give is yesterday when we had a third and three and Keondra is in there.  We got a sweep to the right which I actually LOVED as a play call but we only got about a yard and a half and had to punt.  It was actually executed really well but Keondra just doesn’t have the burst or moves to get outside.  He’s a between the tackles runner.  I don’t understand the play call with the package on the field.  Maybe Goodson doesn’t practice well but there’s times you have to put that aside and know your best option for converting a third down.  I just see a lot of the same issues as I saw with Fran when it comes to utilizing personnel as well as they should.
  • Let’s face it too that Sherm was never great at the pro level.  I think he’s a very solid fundamental coach but I just don’t think he has that great factor about him.  I know everyone wants to point to Pete Carroll but the list of pro coaches that didn’t make it is longer and I see Sherm ending up like Charlie Weiss or Al Groh.  Sure he needs time but I just don’t see “Great” coming from Sherman.
  • I won’t even go into Sherm’s inability to go up against the Big Boys and get the top recruits.  He’ll recruit decent enough and do a better job of identifying talent than Fran but he’s never going to be a lights out recruiter because of the hole he dug this season.  We have a chance to close out with Christine Michael and Craig Loston and I bet we get neither of the guys even though they were both committed to us at one point.

 

Where Do We Go From Here:

 

  • I hate saying that I’m off the Shermwagon in his first year but I am.  What I’ve seen these past two games is simply pathetic.  I didn’t expect Sherm to light the world on fire but I fully expected us to be competitive.  Let’s look at who we’ve lost to.  Arky State at Kyle.  They’re currently 4-5 in the mighty Sun Belt Conference.  Their other three wins you ask?  Texas Southern, Middle Tennessee State, and Louisiana-Monroe.  That’s some select company for us.  Let’s not forget about that loss to KSU at KYLE by 14 who is 4-7 and their only Big XII win so far.  Baylor who is 4-7 and their other Big XII win is over ISU.  Other losses include Miami, OSU, Tech, and OU with the closest margin being 18 points in both Miami and Tech.  I fully expect to get clobbered in Austin as they make atones for the past two years.
  • Next season I see us going anywhere from 5-7 to 8-4.  I still say we have to win a bowl game next season and then for us to be in the Top 25 at the end of Sherm’s third season.  I say if we’re not bowl eligible at the end of next season then Sherm needs to be gone no questions asked.
  • I do say there’s one scenario where Sherm should be let go this season and I’m not advocating for it all but I would strongly consider it if I was Bill Byrne.  There’s a good chance Mike Leach is leaving Lubbock this season.  I know Tech is probably going to make a serious run at keeping him but if I’m Bill Byrne I keep in tune with what’s going on with Leach’s situation.  If I know for certain we can get Leach then I move on from Sherm this season.  It’s outlandish but desperate times call for desperate measures.  I would even go so far as to tell Sherm so he knows he’s operating with some serious heat under him.  It would cost us a ton of money but my guess is keeping Sherm is going to cost us more.
  • Outside of that I let Sherm come back next season with the understanding he needs to win a bowl game next season to get comfortable and if he doesn’t go to a bowl game then he’s gone.  I keep an eye on what’s going with Kevin Sumlin at UH.  That’s the guy we should have hired and I’m firmly convinced of that now.  Go look at the guy’s staff of who he’s assembled.  I’d dare say it’s much more impressive than Sherm’s staff.  Couple that with the fact that he throttled the #25 team in the country and it’s hard to see why we should have hired him.  I still get really pissed thinking that Bill Byrne didn’t even give the guy or anyone else an interview outside of Sherm.
  • I always advocated that we should have interviewed Sumlin, Briles, and Muschamp once it became obvious we weren’t getting a big name such as Butch Davis or Tom Tubberville.  As it stands Sumlin is doing pretty good at UH, Briles just beat Sherman, and Muschamp is doing a yeoman’s job with a young secondary in Austin.  I don’t mean this personally towards Sherm but it feels like we got the run of the litter.

 

Now that I’m done with this I don’t feel any better at all.  In fact I feel sicker because we’re essentially stuck with Sherman for two more years at least all because Bill Byrne didn’t want to interview anyone else and was in such a hurry to hire Sherm when he clearly wasn’t in demand by any other program.  This is nothing personal against Sherm at all but it has everything to do with wanting A&M Football to be great again.  He’s not going to get us there.

 

I’ll be renewing my season tickets next year just like I will every season until I’m six feet in the ground but my wife and I talked about how much we spend and how it’s just not enjoyable anymore.  There’s no much I enjoy more than watching those maroon helmets with the big white aTm running around on a football field but I just feel like we made a huge mistake in hiring Sherman because he’s been gone from the college game so long and was never truly great in the first place.

Thoughts on the Colorado Game

Sorry there won’t be any Thoughts from the Game for the CU game as we didn’t make it.  One of our dogs threw up for the 6th time in 60 minutes right before we were leaving.  We just couldn’t leave her all alone in the backyard so we took her to the vet.  By the time we got done it was too late to get to the game.

She’s doing fine as she didn’t throw up anymore after that last time and appears to be back to normal.  We’d been to the Dog Park that morning so you never know what she could have gotten into and how bad it could have been.  We just couldn’t spend 9 hours away without anyone watching her.

I did listen to the game on the radio which could be a whole post itself with Dave and Dave.  I’ve always been a fan of Dave South since I know him personally but after that broadcast I can no longer defend him from a broadcast standpoint.  It was just a horrible broadcast.  I watched the No Huddle replay on FSN Sunday morning and it really showed me how bad he really is.  I think the most glaring example was when the CU player scored their first TD and put the ball right inside the pylon.  It was pretty clear and Dave was questioning it.  All in all it was just frustrating to listen to.

I will hit on a couple of quick thoughts:

  • Outside of one HUGE quarter we struggled offensively.  I was shocked to see us go to the I formation so much in the replay.  One of my fears with Sherman is sitting on a lead like they do in the pros.  In college football you have to keep the throttle down.  It’s amazing how we flat out throttled them through the air in the 3rd and went conservative up by 2 scores to protect the lead.  CU knew it and pinned their ears back and shut us down.  We were an onside kick and CU drive away from tying the game.  Those things never happen in the pros but they do happen more than you realize in college.
  • The defense sounded like they played a pretty good game and got some KEY turnovers when we needed them.  Without Pugh’s interception in the end zone, I wonder what the game looks like.  We finally got some pressure in the second half as well.
  • Hey, hey Randy Bullock!!
  • Watching the replay JJ just reinforced how crazy he can be in making something out of nothing.  There was one play where he was rolling left and looked to be throwing it out of bounds but just drilled a pass to Jamie McCoy even though he didn’t catch it.  That’s a very tough throw.

All in all, that was about it.  Let’s just hope we can beat Baylor and not get too embarassed in the games against OU and tu.

I still say Sherm needs to do this over the next three seasons for me to believe in him:

Year 2 – Win a bowl game.  Don’t care which one or the record but we need to win a bowl game since it’s been since the 2001 and Mattress Mac Bowl since we won one.  Obviously a BCS loss or close Cotton Bowl loss is acceptable.  Anything outside of that will be a disappoiintment.

Year 3 – Finish the season in the Top 25.  Don’t care about the W/L or the Bowl as finishing in the Top 25 will let that stuff take care of itself.