season prediction

2023 Aggie Season Prediction

Overall Thoughts:

Before I get into discussing each game I want to hit on a few points of how I feel about this team going into the 2023 season:

– There is enough front-line talent to compete in and potentially win every game. I feel good about all of our starters except the offensive tackles. They could be okay but those positions are my greatest concern going into 2023. I think we should be just fine everywhere else.

If you didn’t see or read my Aggie position group thoughts you can read them here – https://rcwouldhavegonefor2.com/2023/08/03/2023-aggie-position-preview/

– Jimbo has to coach differently. In his first five seasons, he’s been afraid to put the pedal down on offense and stress the opposing defense. In his first three seasons, I thought it was because he wanted to rely on his defense which I understood. However, the last two seasons have proven it’s just his style. It’s a new era in football and he must let his offense mash the gas from time to time.

– In addition to a new style of offense, Jimbo needs to see the whole game. There were at least three times last year where a timeout was called without thinking of the next play. They were all reactionary timeouts to what had just happened. He had no plan beyond the timeout. As the head coach Jimbo needs to be thinking about the next few plays even before the play in front of him has happened. Great coaches anticipate what can happen after a play occurs. I want to see more assertiveness in decision-making instead of waiting until the play clock has wound down. Have a plan for what you think you need to do before it happens. You can always adjust but if you’re good at anticipating you’re that much further ahead than the other team.

– We still play in the SEC West and even though it appears down this season it’s still the toughest division in college football. Throw in road trips to Miami and Tennessee and this is a challenging schedule. There’s no way we’re winning every game this season. There will be hiccups but just a question of how many.

– We’re going to have injuries. It’s just a matter of how many. I hope we have no more than five starters miss five games each. I think that’s reasonable. We have less than that and we’ll be good. More than that and it’s going to have a real effect on the team.

– Only 12 games matter in the grand scheme. All of what you’re about to read is a guess. It’s no different than anyone else that’s guessing right now as well. I’ve been extremely wrong the last two seasons as we’ve done MUCH worse than I anticipated. The win or loss on the field is the only thing that matters. I’m still waiting on Jimbo to get over that hump and into Atlanta the first weekend of December but I’m not sure we’re there yet.

– I’m ready for September 2nd to get here.

New Mexico:

This game is all about one person – Conner Weigman. I’m operating under the assumption Conner will be our starting quarterback. If not, this game will be about Max Johnson.

This is not a scrimmage and it’s not a practice. It’s a full-blown dress rehearsal and the starting quarterback better be ready to annihilate the defense. Maybe not annihilate but our offense should have our way against New Mexico at the hands of Conner or Max.

What I don’t want to see is a repeat of Haynes King against Kent State and Sam Houston State. In 2021 we lead Kent State 10-3 going into the half. Last year against Sam Houston we lead 17-0 at the half.

I want to see a starting quarterback chomping at the bit to hand it to someone who’s not actually on his team. I want to see at least 28 points at halftime. Ideally, I’d like to see 35.

Despite what some fans think there’s no sandbagging or limiting plays in these first games against lesser opponents. There are simply players prepared to execute and players that aren’t. I want to see a quarterback prepared to execute their offense to their full ability along with everyone else. If not, we’re in trouble.

No struggles in the first half “working out the kinks.” Come out and play dominating football from the start.

Beyond the quarterback, I’d love to see us easily establish the running game and limit points on defense. I want to see 35-3 at half and 59-10 when it’s all said and done.

I’m dead serious I want to see a dominating blowout from start to finish. Give me a team that looks confident and prepared at kick-off.

The last thing I want is to go in at half with less than a three-touchdown lead. We need to set the tone for the 2023 season early and often.

Chance of winning – 100%.

Aggies: 1-0

Miami:

Did you know Jimbo is 1-4 in Game 2 during his time in Aggieland? His only Week 2 victory was that stinker in Colorado in 2021. That loss to Appalachian State last year was a much bigger indicator than we realized. 2020 has been the only anomaly when we had to play Bama in Week 2 and then totally turned it around after that game.

Even without knowing that stat I think this game is going to be a MASSIVE barometer for how the season is going to play out. We’re going to know pretty quickly what the 2023 Aggie Football team is going to look like. How we win or lose will be telling for the rest of the season.

We’re going on the road against a tough but beatable Miami team.

I think this game is a coin flip the Aggies win but I really want this to be Conner Weigman’s first true statement game. I want this to be Johnny Manziel in his second game against SMU in 2012. I want this to be Lamar Jackson in his second game against Syracuse in 2016. Bobby Petrino was Lamar Jackson’s coach that year. Both guys went on to win the Heisman after dazzling in their second game.

That’s what I want to happen but know that it’s a long shot.

I think what happens is similar to last year. The Aggie defense limits the Hurricane offense and the Aggie offense does enough to win this game.

I think we win.

Chance of winning – 50%.

Aggies: 2-0

Louisiana Monroe:

Jimbo has yet to lose a Game 3 as the Aggie head coach and I don’t see this game as being any different.

Chance of winning – 100%.

Aggies: 3-0

Auburn:

I’m not sure what to make of Auburn just yet. They were pretty dreadful last season even if all we could do was punt on our first 10 offensive possessions against them.

Hugh Freeze is a damn solid coach but I’m pretty confident Jimbo’s squad is much further along in 2023. I do like getting Auburn early in the season as I think they’ll get tougher as the season wears on.

Since joining the SEC in 2023 this has been a weird series. The road team has usually won this game but that hasn’t been the case the last two seasons and I think that trend holds.

I’m taking the Aggies here.

Chance of winning – 60%.

Aggies: 4-0

Arkansas:

What a series this has been. Other than 2021 when Arkansas had their best season in a decade the Aggies have won this game. It hasn’t been easy but somehow the Aggies have gotten the breaks and gone 11-1 against Arkansas since joining the SEC.

Arkansas returns their starting quarterback and running back from last season but they lost both coordinators.

This won’t be an easy win by any stretch but I’m taking the Aggies here due to the loss of coordinators for the Hogs.

Chance of winning – 60%

Aggies: 5-0

Alabama:

I have no clue what to make of this Alabama team. They also lost both of their coordinators but that’s never been an issue for Nick Saban.

The biggest question for this Alabama team is who’s going to play quarterback. Coming out of spring practice they went and got Tyler Buchner who was looking like Notre Dame’s backup quarterback this season. That’s not a good sign when you’re getting a backup quarterback after spring practice. Buchner is familiar with Tommy Rees who is the new Bama OC so that’s the reason they got him.

Because of the question mark at quarterback and because Bama lost TWO games in 2022 everyone believes the Bama dynasty is done. Bama lost both games on the road against rivals thanks to a game-ending field goal and overtime two-point conversion.

They lost two games by a combined 4 points and have a question at starting quarterback so the dynasty is over in a lot of people’s eyes.

I do think there are more questions of the 2023 Bama team than any team in the recent Saban era but they’re still Bama and coached by Nick Saban. I can’t write them off.

My heart says the Aggies pull this off but I need to see that Miami game first and how Bama looks in their first five games. My head says take Bama at the current moment.

Chance of winning – 35%.

Aggies: 5-1

Tennessee:

In the second half of last season, I thought the Tennessee Volunteers might be poised for a pretty decent drop-off in 2023. I thought Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt were the secret sauce.

Then Tennessee dominated Clemson in the Orange Bowl with no Hendon Hooker or Jalin Hyatt. I get Clemson isn’t the national championship-caliber team they’ve been in the past. However, they’ve still got PLENTY of talent relative to most teams in college football and they couldn’t do anything against Tennessee in that game.

I think Josh Heupel is going to plug in Joe Milton at quarterback and keep rolling. Not saying the Aggies can’t win this game but it sure feels like a certain loss. Especially on the road.

There’s a good chance Tennessee is the best team in the SEC in 2023. What a year to draw them.

Chance of winning – 10%

Aggies: 5-2

Bye Week:

The Bye couldn’t come at a better time for us. It’ll be right after two of the toughest games on the schedule. I like to think we’ll be competitive in every game up until this point. If that’s the case I think we’ll use the Bye to regain our composure and set us up well for the final five games.

These final 5 game predictions are based solely on a belief that an A&M team has shown up every week and competed in the previous 7 games. If the wheels are wobbling or even off then the predictions for the final five games are total trash.

We’re going to find out everything we need to know about the 2023 Aggie season in the first seven games.

South Carolina:

Thanks to a kickoff returned for a touchdown and two early offensive turnovers the Gamecocks finally got to hold that coveted Bonham Trophy the Aggies have held every year since this “fierce” rivalry started in 2014.

Shane Beamer has some real momentum in South Carolina right now and has Spencer Rattler coming back for another season. I don’t think it’ll be enough as the Aggies want that Bonham Trophy back.

The Aggies be coming off another bye week like last season against South Carolina but I don’t think they’ll make the same mistakes they made in Columbia so the Aggies take this one.

Chance of winning – 60%.

Aggies: 6-2

Ole Miss:

Thanks to Jimbo’s blindness and stubbornness, Lane Kiffin has pulled down Jimbo’s pants the last two seasons.

I like to think that trend stops this season as Ole Miss completely collapsed down the stretch last season. I think that trend continues in 2023 and Ole Miss has a pretty tough season from a record standpoint.

Ole Miss has a lot of talent at quarterback but I question the rest of their team. They still have decent talent but not on the level of A&M assuming we’re mostly healthy. If we’re healthy we should win this game.

I secretly hope this is the year that Jimbo and Durkin enact their revenge on Kiffin’s smart-ass comments by blowing the doors off Ole Miss at their home. I want Kiffin embarrassed in front of his home crowd.

My guess is it’ll be another tough-fought game the Aggies barely eke out. Either way, a win over Ole Miss is a win over Ole Miss and I’ll take it.

Chance of winning – 60%.

Aggies: 7-2

Mississippi State:

We get Mississippi State at Kyle which is a huge help. We don’t do well in Starkville.

I feel bad for Mississippi State as they have to replace Mike Leach so this feels like a transition year for them. I think that will be reflected in their record.

It won’t be easy but I think this is a win for the Aggies. Just too many question marks for Mississippi State in 2023.

Chance of winning – 70%

Aggies: 8-2

Abilene Christian:

The final home game of 2023 will be against Abilene Christian. I can’t tell you how excited I will be when the SEC goes to a 9 game schedule and this meaningless game in November is gone.

My only question for this game is what the weather will be like and how many folks show up.

Chance of winning – 100%.

Aggies 9-2

LSU:

I look at LSU like I look at Alabama to a degree. They get the benefit of the doubt due to roster talent and history. That’s a good enough reason because it’s held.

The problem I have with LSU is that I don’t think their roster is as deep as it’s been in seasons past. They still have really good talent at key starting spots but I don’t think they’re as talented and as deep as in past seasons.

I also don’t think Jayden Daniels is a game-changing quarterback against talented teams. He’s extremely talented so I think he’ll beat a lot of equal or less teams but I don’t think he’s an elite quarterback that can elevate his game against top defenses. At least not his passing game.

If LSU doesn’t win in overtime against Alabama they’re an 8-4 team and the clear 4th best team in the SEC in 2022. Because of that, I can’t quite figure out what to think of LSU going into 2023.

I think the Aggies stand a really good chance to win this game with their defense. However, going into Death Valley on a Saturday night has proven to be tough for the Aggies.

There’s just too much football to be played before this game to know the outcome right now.

I think this is a coinflip game the Tigers win simply because it’s in Baton Rouge.

Chances of winning – 50%.

Aggies: 9-3

Summary:

Until I see improvement on the field I can’t help but predict better than 9-3. I’ve been burned by Jimbo for the last two seasons. Plus, the SEC West with road trips to Miami and Tennessee is a tall order for a team coming off 5-7.

I feel like this is a 10-2 to 8-4 team.

The talent is there to win the SEC West but I don’t know if the head coaching is there. I need Jimbo to prove it on the field first.

Just Win, Jimbo

2019 Aggie Season Prediction

As we enter the 2019 Aggie Football season we all know about the difficult schedule.  Four games against teams ranked in the Top 6 of the Pre-Season Coach’s Poll.  This includes the Top 3.  Three of those four games are on the road.  The craziest thing about this schedule is it makes games against Auburn, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and even Ole Miss and Arkansas seem like after thoughts.  Nobody is even talking about the other 5 SEC games on the schedule.  We’re all focused on those four games.  It’s a daunting task but welcome to the SEC.

For the most part everyone would consider 8-4 a successful season.  That would be a solid season beating everyone else except for the teams ranked ahead of you.  I think 8-4 is a good barometer for this team in 2019.  However, it doesn’t mean this team can’t go 10-2 like the 2012 team.  The talent is certainly there but it’s young and inexperienced.  It’s even possible this team could catch lightening in a bottle and go 11-1 like the 2013 Auburn football team.  They lost to LSU early and then beat Georgia and Alabama in back to back games to get into the SEC Championship game where they won that game too.  They then went on to the national title game losing to Jimbo Fisher and FSU.  I don’t see A&M making the College Football Playoff but it’s not impossible if a few breaks go their way in close games.  College football can be funny sometimes.

It’s also possible this Aggie team loses those 4 games and then loses a couple other games going 6-6.  That would be an extremely disappointing season but depending on how those 6 losses played out it wouldn’t mean it’s a terrible team.  It would just mean they lost to some really talented teams and then didn’t get some breaks against teams as talented as them.

I did a preview on how I think the position groups look going into 2019 which you can read here:

https://rcwouldhavegonefor2.com/2019/07/10/2019-aggie-position-group-thoughts

I think these position groups in this order have the most influence on the final wins and losses for the Aggies in 2019:

  • Offensive Line
  • Linebackers
  • Wide Receivers
  • Quarterback
  • Secondary

The Secondary was our worst unit last year but I think we have enough influx of young talent that it will be markedly better.  I believe Armani Watts would have been worth at least one if not two wins more last season.  I think the addition of Leon O’Neal and Elijah Blades if they play to their talent and potential will make the Secondary much better.  I won’t get into details on the other groups as you can click the link but just wanted to clarify why I think our worst unit last year isn’t a higher question mark heading into 2019.

My last two season predictions have been spot on record wise.  I predicted 7-5 in 2017 and 8-4 in 2018.  I flipped the Florida and Mississippi State games in 2017.  In 2018 I was wrong on the Mississippi State and LSU games.

Here’s my game by game breakdown for 2019:

Texas State Bobcats:

Jake Spavital and his index card-based offense return to Kyle Field for his debut as a head coach.  Perfectly ironic.  You know I’m no fan of Jake Spavital as a coach.  I think he’s HIGHLY overrated.  I don’t think he’ll be any better as a head coach than he was an offensive coordinator.  I just wonder if he’ll have color coded index cards for offensive and defensive items so he doesn’t get confused.

The last time these two historic teams met on a Thursday night Hurricane Rita was barreling towards the coast.  That game wound up being closer than expected at 44-31 but I don’t see the same thing happening in this game.  That was Fran against David Bailiff and this is Jimbo against Spav.  Major advantage to the Aggies.

What I’d like to see in this game is a flawless first half with a score of 35-3 at half.  Have the starters play 2-3 series in the second half scoring another touchdown so it’s 42-6 at worst by the time the second units find their way in full time.

More than anything I want to see a healthy game with an offense and defense that control their side of the ball for most of the game.  Scores are hard to predict but just give me a healthy Aggie team that executes their game plan and controls the entire game.  I think we’ll see that.

WIN (1-0)

Clemson:

Of all the “Big 4” games I believe this is the most daunting game of them all.  This will be the first big start for a lot of our younger guys and we’re going on the road to Clemson.

There’s also these factors:

  • We’re not sneaking up on Clemson
  • This is a different team than we played within 2 points at Kyle Field
  • This is the biggest game on their schedule

We’re the highest ranked team on Clemson’s schedule by a large margin.  We’ll likely be coming in as the 11th ranked team in the country.  They have one other opponent ranked in the Top 25 on the rest of their schedule.  That team is Syracuse and they’re ranked at 22 headed into the season and play Clemson the week after us.

Clemson has their toughest two games in back to back weeks early in the season so there will be no surprising them.  They know if they can get through weeks 2 and 3 then they’re headed for the playoffs more than likely.  We’re their biggest game because if they can beat an SEC team that affords them a loss on their schedule and still easily make the playoffs if they win the ACC.  If they lose to A&M then their margin of error for the rest of the season becomes much smaller to make the playoffs.

In addition to motivation this is a different team than played at Kyle Field.  Their defensive line might not be as good but their defense will still be really damn good.  The big change will be on offense as Trevor Lawrence might be the best quarterback in college football.  He only played about 33% of the snaps against us last season.  In addition, Justyn Ross barely saw the field against us.  He was a true freshman but all he did was go on to lead Clemson in receiving last season.  In the national championship game he caught 6 balls for 153 yards including a 74-yard touchdown against the Bama secondary.  Against Notre Dame Ross caught 6 passes for 148 yards and two scores.  Needless to say we didn’t see what Ross had to offer in our game last season.  Lawrence and Ross might be the best QB/WR combo in the country so they’re going to test our young secondary.

This doesn’t even account for the rest of their roster which is loaded with talent.

I’ll likely do a more in-depth piece closer to the game.  It’s not an impossible win but it will take everything A&M has to pull off a victory in Clemson.  On paper right now I just don’t see it happening.  They’re the defending national champions for a reason.

Loss (1-1)

Lamar:

After taking on Clemson the Aggies get to come back to Kyle Field to take on Lamar.  This might be a minor let down game where the score is closer than it should be but I don’t see us losing this one.

We’ve got Auburn the week after so I think Jimbo can keep their focus.

Win (2-1)

Auburn:

I’m not sure what to make of this Auburn team.  They were under-achievers last season going 7-5 but they beat us.  They should have been 6-6 as we gave that game away.

They lose Jarret Stidham who didn’t quite achieve what he should have at quarterback under Gus Malzahn but he wasn’t terrible.  They look to start either Bo Nix who’s a true freshman or Tyler Gatewood who redshirted last season and didn’t take any significant snaps.  Gus is calling the plays again which will make things interesting.  It usually takes Gus a few games to get his quarterbacks in sync so I don’t think he’ll have his offense humming quite yet.  They’ll still be talented and will move the ball but I just question how much they’ll be able to score.

Defensively Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in the country.  The rest of their defense is solid as well.  Points won’t come easy for the Aggie offense.

This feels a lot like the Mississippi State game of last year with these two exceptions:

  • It’s at Kyle Field
  • There’s no Nick Fitzgerald

Jimbo appears to be making Kyle Field a home field advantage again and Nick Fitzgerald had our number so it’s good Auburn doesn’t have a guy like him.  This will be a game likely dominated by defensive line play shutting down the other offense for most of the game.  Welcome to old school SEC football.

I think the Aggies will scratch out just enough points to come out on top of this one but it won’t be easy.

Win (3-1)

Arkansas:

At some point we have to lose to Arkansas.  I just hope it’s not 2019 and I don’t think it will be.  2018 should have been the year they beat us but Chad Morris screwed up that one.  I’ll never understand why he chose to not attack our secondary from the get go.  If Arkansas comes out passing last season we probably lose that game.  I’m glad he didn’t as I like beating Arkansas.

Bret Bielema pretty much ran the Arkansas program into the ground from a talent standpoint.  Chad Morris has a daunting task in front of him and I don’t think he’s quite there yet.  I like Chad Morris and John Chavis as coaches but I don’t think they have the talent they really need to compete in the SEC.

This Arkansas team was 2-10 last season not winning a single SEC game along with losing to the likes of Colorado State and North Texas.  The lost to both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in Fayetteville and then were shut out 38-0 at Missouri to close the season.  That’s a really bad season for a program like Arkansas.

Despite that Morris recruited surprisingly well and obviously got Nick Starkel to transfer.  I know he’s an Aggie fan favorite and everyone thinks we’d win a national championship with him but I don’t think he’ll make a difference at Arkansas.  Aggies keep the winning streak alive.

Win (4-1)

Alabama:

My heart wants to say the Aggie win this game but my head says they’re not quite ready yet.  The Aggies will be coming off a bye week before this game but not sure it will matter.  Alabama will be too.

I think the most underrated thing Jimbo Fisher did in 2018 was not lose a conference game at Kyle Field.  You must go back to 1999 to find a season where the Aggies didn’t lose a conference game at home.  Dennis Franchione, Mike Sherman, and Kevin Sumlin never did that.  Jimbo did it in his first season.

I want to believe this trend continues in 2019 but Alabama is going to be a sticking point.  All Alabama did in 2018 was go undefeated until they lost to Clemson in the national championship game.  What a terrible coaching job by Nick Saban.  The dude won 14 games in a row but couldn’t win the 15th for the title.  He’s terrible.  Bama should just go ahead and fire him.

Tua is back at quarterback along with his fleet of receivers.  They’ll be salty through the air.  They lost some defenders to the NFL Draft but like a AAA baseball team they’ll have some new ones for the NFL to scout in 2019 for the 2020 NFL Draft.

It’s simply amazing what Saban has done at Bama.  I want to believe it’ll change and there’s a slide coming but I must see it with my own eyes first.  Until then Bama is Bama under Nick Saban and I think he hands Jimbo his first conference loss at Kyle Field.

I hope I’m wrong and some 2012 magic finds it’s way to Kyle Field.

Loss (4-2)

Ole Miss:

After Bama the Aggies head to Oxford to take on Ole Miss.  Oxford has been a weird place for us and this is a different Ole Miss team than we’ve played in the past.  They lost a lot of skill position talent on offense.  Even with that talent they were still bad though.

They were 5-7 last season and lost their last 5 SEC games.  I don’t think they’ll be any better in 2019 and will probably be worse.  I think they’ll battle Arkansas for the worst team in the SEC West.

Even with a potential Alabama hangover I think the Aggies will be fine and win this game.

Win (5-2)

Mississippi State:

Much like the Aggies have had Arkansas’ number the Mississippi State Bulldogs have had the Aggies’ number.  Since Johnny Football left for the NFL the Aggies have only beat Mississippi State once in five tries.

Outside of the Auburn game last season this loss was the most frustrating.  Mississippi State had two things going for them the Aggies simply couldn’t overcome:

  • Nick Fitzgerald
  • Three first round defensive starters

Nick Fitzgerald simply had the Aggies’ number.  In three starts he never lost to A&M.  He’s gone.  Thank goodness.

To compound matters last season the Bulldog’s had two defensive lineman that gave our offensive line problems all night.  Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat.  They’re gone along with Jonathan Abrams who was a solid safety.

Mississippi State was 8-4 last year but I think they take a decent step back this year.  I think they’ll struggle to make a bowl game as they lose a lot from last year’s team and I don’t think Joe Moorhead re-stocked it or Dan Mullen on his way out of town.

Couple all of that with it being at Kyle Field and I think the Aggies win this one pretty easily.

Win (6-2) BOWL ELIGIBLE

UTSA:

The final crappy game of the season at Kyle Field.  Those in charge of college football keep wondering why attendance keeps dropping but they keep putting crappy opponents at home.  Nobody wants to see these crappy teams past the first two weeks in September.  They really don’t even want to see them then.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – If A&M wins the SEC West they’ll have one game to prove their worth for the college football playoff.  You win the SEC championship game and you’re a lock for the college football playoff.  It’s as simple as that.

I’m not saying we have to play Texas but we shouldn’t be playing more than two crappy games a year at Kyle Field.  I think playing two is even a stretch.

You want attendance to improve?  Put some damn home games the fans care about going to.  UTSA ain’t one of them.

I know nothing about the Roadrunners but I know we win this game.

Win (7-2)

South Carolina:

I personally think South Carolina is the most underrated program in the SEC since Dan Mullen took off to Gainesville.  Will Muschamp has matured a lot since his Florida days and has built a solid program after Steve Spurrier.  That doesn’t mean they’ll win a lot of games but they won’t be easy to beat.  At best they’re shooting for third in the SEC East every season but they’re not a terrible football program like some others in the conference.

Jake Bentley returns for his 4th season as starting quarterback.  He’s a scrappy quarterback but he lost his best offensive weapon in Deebo Samuel.  Defensively they’ll be like they usually are where they’re fundamentally sound but just don’t have the talent to beat the more talented teams on their schedule.  Sleep on them and they’ll beat you though.

Like Arkansas we’ve never lost to South Carolina in the SEC.  That’s right, the illustrious Bonham Trophy has never seen the East side of the Mississippi River.  I don’t think it changes in 2019 either.

Win (8-2)

Georgia:

This Georgia game confuses me because I’m not sure who Georgia is right now.  Kirby Smart seems to have that program on a great foundation but they experience hiccups from time to time.  They lost some key offensive talent but they’ve recruited well and their recent history says they’ll still be one of the best teams in college football.

Two years ago, they were a half away from a national championship before they choked it away.  Last season they were a quarter away from the SEC Championship and headed to the playoffs before choking it away.  They then went on to get outplayed by Texas in the Sugar Bowl for the entire game.  Georgia had a couple of costly turnovers but if you watched the game you saw a Texas team whip Georgia at the line of scrimmage.  It wasn’t a good look.

At the end of 2018 there were plenty of question for if this Georgia team is really all that good.  There’s the 36-16 loss at LSU but that game was in Tiger Stadium and Georgia had 4 turnovers.  I’m chalking that game up to an anomaly during the Kirby Smart era.  Tiger Stadium can get the best of you.  Kirby Smart is 24-5 over the last two seasons.  Make no mistake Kirby Smart has an elite program in college football.  I don’t think that changes in 2019.

I went back and looked at the SEC teams that have lost the Sugar Bowl to a Big 12 team and what happened the following season.  That’s happened twice in the last decade with Alabama losing to Oklahoma after the 2013 season and then Auburn after the 2017 season.  Each team then went on to play in the SEC Championship game the following season.  It’s a small sample set for sure but losing to a Big 12 team in the Sugar Bowl doesn’t appear to have a detrimental effect on a program.  Sorry Big 12 fans.

Before I can really predict this game I want to see what Georgia does against Florida and even Notre Dame.  If Dan Mullen can compete and even beat Kirby Smart with Feleipe Franks then I’ll have confidence Jimbo can do the same with Kellen Mond.

Until I see Georgia truly falter in 2019 I must predict this as a loss for the Aggies.  They’re just a better program right now.  The short sample set of losing the Sugar Bowl doesn’t lead me to believe there’s any detrimental effect.   Georgia will continue to be an elite team and a force to be reckoned with.

Loss (8-3)

LSU:

Do you know we close the season at LSU?  Do you know we beat LSU in a 7 OT thriller last season?  Do you know that Coach O has circled this game on his calendar?

I believe this is the most important of the Big 4 games this season.  I know other wins will be more lustrous but if there’s only one to win of the Big 4 this is the game.  I said this when Jimbo came to Aggieland – As long as Nick Saban is at Alabama Jimbo’s most important task will be establishing Texas A&M as the second-best program in the SEC West above LSU and Auburn.  Beating LSU in back to back seasons will be a MAJOR feather in Jimbo’s cap.

Closing the season with another win over LSU does so much for the program when it comes to perception.  This will help with the media, recruits, and casual fans of Texas A&M.  To get to Alabama you must establish yourself above LSU first.  This win of the Big 4 will matter the most if you can only have one.  If we beat 2 of the 3 before this I don’t mind losing to LSU nearly as much but this is the biggest game on our schedule in my mind.

As for the game itself I have no idea what to expect right now.  There are just too many variables.  LSU loses a couple key guys on defense in Greedy Williams and Devin White.  Don’t be mistaken though as they’ll just re-load with talent that’s not far off from those guys.  Offensively Joe Burrows is back and while he’s not electric he’s as gritty as they come.  This will be a tough LSU team.

The biggest variable will be LSU’s record coming into the game.  If they lose to Texas, Florida, and Alabama then they might not be as motivated to beat us.  Coach O’s team is loaded with talent but he just seems to have games he loses when he should have won.  Those three stick out to me before we play them.

That Texas game seems like one of those games because it’s in Austin early in the season and Tom Herman has shown to be nails against higher ranked opponents.  I want to see LSU win that game but I think Texas knows they need it more.  Coach O might not have his charges ready.  If LSU loses that game they could be set up to lose a couple more before playing the Aggies.  The more they lose the less motivated they’ll be to beat A&M despite having it circled on their calendar.  That will help A&M’s chances of winning this game.

Even if LSU comes into the game with only a loss or two I don’t think it really changes A&M’s chances of winning this game.  Winning last year’s game got the proverbial monkey off their back.  The Aggies now know they can beat LSU.  The Aggies know LSU wants payback for an early Powerade celebration gone awry.  The Aggies don’t want to give it to them.  The Aggies will be plenty motivated to beat LSU regardless of how motivated LSU is.

I also believe that if 2020 is the year for the Aggies then this LSU game must be the launch point.  If this group is truly talented enough and motivated enough to win it all in 2002 they’ll beat LSU in 2019.  It won’t be easy but if Jimbo and his team are truly building something special for 2020 this is a moment we’ll look back to as a major phase in the building process.

I believe in Jimbo.  By the end of the season I believe this team will walk into Baton Rouge and make one more statement against LSU.  I believe the Aggies will take that step to 2020.

Win (9-3)

 

There you have it.  The Aggies will finish 9-3 and be the second-best team in the SEC West yet again.  They’ll make a New Years 6 Bowl game and be set for a 10-win season looking to 2020 for a solid chance to make the playoffs and the national championship.

I still believe there’s a chance this team does what the 2012 team did and go 10-2.  It’s not a far reach if the talent develops as the season wears on.  For now, I’m putting it at 9-3.  Even 9-3 is a daunting task when you look at the schedule and the youth on this team.  But as Jimbo says – Even you don’t bite as a puppy you won’t bite as a dog.  This Aggie team is gonna get some bites this season.

We just need Jake Spavital and his collection of index cards to get here sooner than later so we can start taking those bites.

Make Aggie Football Great Again
#MAFGA

How to follow us:

If you’re reading this blog for the first time and want to get notice when new blogs are posted you can follow us on Twitter and Facebook by using the following two links:

Twitter – https://twitter.com/m_a_f_g_a

Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/Make-Aggie-Football-Great-Again-1998293353741315/

We’ll do a re-cap of each game throughout the season along with some other things like game previews for bigger games.

If you want a Make Aggie Football Great Again hat we have some in stock.  They’re $20 including shipping.  You, your friends, and your family will look great in one for the 2019 Aggie Football season!  You can email chewyredding at yahoo dot com for more information.  Payment can be made by PayPal or Venmo.

The Ultimate Aggie Grill:

Aggie Grill small

At the 2019 Houston Coach’s Night the ultimate Aggie grill was on display.  Chaz Hammonds ’13 with Soul Fit Grill has created a maroon kamado grill.  As someone who has one of the big name kamado grills I can tell you this thing is on par quality wise.  It’s comparable in size to the XL of the big name brand for much less.  For $899 you get the grill, side boards, and stand.  If you’re in Houston he’ll even deliver for free.  If you’re in the market for a kamado grill give Chaz a look.  You won’t be disappointed.

Here’s a link to his website:

http://www.soulfitgrill.com/grills/the-legend-kamado-by-soulfitgrill

He also has a smaller grill if you’re looking for a smaller one:

http://www.soulfitgrill.com/grills/r4enfujd21dlcgtzq64zbkkbw8lyqe

2017 Aggie Football Season Prediction – Part 1

12th Man Flag

I have no clue how the 2017 Aggie Football season will go.  I don’t think Kevin Sumlin will be the Aggie head coach come December but I’m not sure of our final record.  I think Kevin Sumlin has to win 8 games to even have any consideration of keeping his job.  If he wins nine then he’s fine but I don’t know if he’ll get there.  Based on last season I think 7 wins is the ceiling for this team.  There’s no kool-aid to be drank here as far as the team goes but there is optimism in the schedule.  Coming into the season I thought the schedule worked against us and doomed Kevin Sumlin but I don’t think it’s as bad as we originally thought based on looking at it little more.

I’ll go through my game by game prediction with a record prediction next week but for now I want to talk about the team in general which is where I see the most concern.  This 2017 team has to start where the 2016 team ended and that’s not good.  For a brief re-cap the 2016 is the team that lost to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, LSU, and then lost to Kansas State in the bowl game for which they had a month to prepare.  That’s a pathetic ending to the season.  Simply pathetic.

Against Mississippi State the team was simply not mentally prepared riding their #4 ranking.  Sure, the loss of Trevor Knight during the game didn’t help along with Myles’ injury but there’s more talent on the A&M team than Mississippi State team and A&M should have won.  The team thought they could sleep walk to a win and was wrong.  That was on coaching.

The Ole Miss game was a complete choke job AT Kyle Field.  We blew a 21-6 halftime lead AT Kyle Field to lose 29-28 to a guy starting his first college game ever as a TRUE freshman.  That’s right, a Kevin Sumlin lead time let a TRUE freshman start his first game AT Kyle Field and overcome a 21-6 halftime deficit.  I’m not even sure that’s the worst loss of the season.  It should be but to me it’s not.  I don’t even want to get into the LSU game.  That game was a 54-39 shootout.  That still boggles my mind.  How did their inept offense score 54 points and then our pop gun offense score 39 points on them is beyond comprehension.  I would have to watch film of that game a dozen times to figure it out and I have don’t have the time or desire.

To me the worst loss of the season came in our bowl game against Kansas State.  In Houston in a stadium full of Aggies we let an inferior team beat us 33-28.  That’s an infuriating loss.  How does Kevin Sumlin let that happen?  The team was not prepared despite having a month to get ready for a Bill Snyder team that just doesn’t make mistakes.  They don’t do anything flashy but they just don’t make mistakes.  That was a crappy KSU team and they owned Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies.  Sumlin should have been fired for that loss.  He really should have.  Instead Sumlin blames his strength and conditioning coach for the collapse down the stretch and fires him as he’s the last coach Sumlin hasn’t fired other than himself.  Meanwhile nobody is wondering how with a month to get our legs and stamina back we lose to KSU in a home bowl game.  That is maddening.  It really is.  Larry Jackson was not the problem last year.  Kevin Sumlin was.  For the last half of the season he didn’t have his team prepared to beat a Power 5 conference team.  He lost all 5 of the final games against Power 5 conference teams.  That’s a major collapse beyond strength and conditioning.

Yet, all you’ve heard this off season is how amazing our new strength and conditioning coach is.  People are really buying into the fact that our team will be totally different because for 5 seasons we had a total sham of a strength and conditioning program.  I just don’t get how people are drinking so much maroon kool-aid because of a different strength and conditioning program.  I have no doubt Mark Hocke is an outstanding strength and conditioning coach but I also have no doubt the issues with this team extend beyond the team’s strength and conditioning.  It starts at the top with Sumlin.

The 2017 season will go beyond the issues at head coach as this team just isn’t as talented as last year’s.  There might be more depth and experience at needed positions like linebacker and offensive line so that’s good but I’m not convinced that’s actually the case.  Either way, this team lost the three most important players from last year.  Those players in order of importance are Trevor Knight, Myles Garrett, and Josh Reynolds.  Yes, I put Trevor before Myles.

There is no doubt the most productive quarterback in the Kevin Sumlin era is Johnny Manziel.  Believe it or not there is also no doubt that Trevor Knight is the second most productive quarterback of the Sumlin era when it comes to wins and losses.  It sure as hell isn’t Kenny Hill, Kyler Murray, or Jake Hubenak.  A case could be made for Kyle Allen but Trevor Knight was 7-3 in games he started including the Mississippi State game which I think we win if he plays the full game.  Trevor Knight is the second best quarterback in the Sumlin regime and now he’s gone and people are expecting this team to be better.  I think we’re a 6-6 team at best last year without Trevor Knight.  That’s why he’s the most important guy from last year.  We certainly lose to Arkansas without him and likely lose one of UCLA, Auburn, and Tennessee without him if not all three.  We might have had a losing season without Trevor Knight last year.

We’re going to start a quarterback at UCLA that has either never taken a snap at the college level or never won a game against a Power 5 team.  Nick Starkel is not Johnny Manziel.  Kellen Mond is not Jalen Hurts.  Jake Hubenak is Jake Hubenak.  This is our quarterback situation for the 2017 team.  Trevor Knight was a fifth year senior and even though he lost his job to Baker Mayfield he did win a Sugar Bowl against Alabama.  With all of that Trevor was still 7-3 as a starter.  He was a little erratic as a passer but he was perfect for Mazzone’s zone read offense.  I’m just not sure we’re going to have someone as good as Trevor under center this season.  Mond could get be all world but I don’t think it’s going to happen as a true freshman.  We shall see.

The loss of Myles is obvious.  He was the #1 pick in the NFL draft and he was a one man Wrecking Crew even while injured.  Teams looked to double team him (aka hold) and rolled plays away from his side.  He was the focus for opposing offenses and now he’s gone.  I don’t see how the defense is better without him because he was that big of a factor for our defense.  Our defense will still be loaded at defensive tackle, should have more depth at linebacker, and will have great safety play with Watts and Wilson but the loss of Myles is going to be like the 2013 defensive line losing Demontre Moore and Spencer Nealy rolled up in one person but even worse.

I know everybody loves Christian Kirk but all Josh Reynolds did last season was have 111 more receiving yards and 3 more touchdowns despite 22 fewer catches than Cristian.  That’s not a knock on Christian at all as he’s an amazing talent but the coaching staff always wants to talk about Kirk while Reynolds was more productive and under-utilized in my mind.  He was way more Mike Evans than we realize and he’s going to be missed.  I know we get Kirk back and Ausborn looks legit but we lost our most productive receiver from last year and nobody is talking about this headed into the season.  The drop off from Reynolds and Kirk to the other receivers last season is dramatic.  There’s nobody close on the 2017 roster than can match what Reynolds did besides Christian.  Nobody.  Ausborn will be a true freshman so I don’t see how he replicates the production of a senior that got drafted in the NFL.  Maybe he gets to 75% of Reynolds production but even that’s a decline.  I just don’t see how the loss of Josh Reynolds isn’t a factor for the 2017 receiving corps being worse.  I’m confused why everyone thinks our receiving corps is going to be so strong when Ricky Seals Jones and Speedy Noil did nothing from a production standpoint despite their natural talent.  Josh Reynolds is easily a Top 10 all-time A&M receiver and nobody is talking about his departure like we’ll miss him.  We’ll miss him in a bigger way than most people would imagine.

While we’re talking about receivers, after this season Kevin Sumlin will have had 4 receivers drafted into the NFL in Ryan Swope, Mike Evans, Josh Reynolds, and Christian Kirk.  Outside of those 4 guys I can’t think of a serviceable wide receiver in the Kevin Sumlin era besides Malcome Kennedy.  Kennedy was a solid college player but he wasn’t great.  Basically, if you don’t have NFL talent then Sumlin isn’t going to develop you to be a productive collegiate receiver.

With those three guys gone from last season I don’t know how this team is better.  I just don’t.  There’s still plenty of talent on this team so it won’t be terrible but the more I think about it, I think the 2016 Aggie Football team was a damn solid football team.  The best since 2012 by far.  That team still only got 8 wins and it wasn’t from lack of conditioning.  It just got outcoached and that hasn’t changed for 2017 as the coaching staff remained in-tact except a couple of position coaches.

Let’s look at this team from unit standpoint:

OFFENSE

Coaching – Noel Mazzone is back calling plays for another year.  While he’s not horrible he didn’t show in year 1 that he’s an exceptional play caller.  He relied a lot on zone read and didn’t adjust for when Jake Hubenak took the reins when Trevor went down.  That’s a concern he’s not adapting to his talent.  He’s better than Spavital but I’m not sure by how much.  He’s what I call a play picker and not a play caller.  He’s okay at designing plays but from what I’ve seen he doesn’t really call plays in any kind of succession that sets plays up or calls them in some rhythm for what the defense is doing.  He just looks at his play sheet and randomly calls plays based on theoretical execution.  I don’t have a lot of faith in Mazzone but hopefully I’m wrong.

Quarterback – I covered this above but we’re going to start someone that’s never taken a collegiate snap or never won a game they started against a Power 5 conference team.  Trevor Knight was a 5th year senior that had played in some big games at OU.  We don’t have that under center.  You hear great things about Starkel and Mond but they have to produce in a game.  Allen and Murray supposedly had all of the talent in the world and we saw how that turned out.  I’m just real cautious at QB as this could be our worst season yet under center.

Running Back – Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford are back.  Both of these guys are outstanding backs averaging over 5 yards a carry last year but they’re not exceptional.  They wouldn’t start at Bama or LSU which are two teams we play every year.  That’s not a knock on those guys but just more of a reality of the situation we’re in.  Until you get guys that can start at LSU or Bama you’re always going to be looking up at them.

Wide Receiver – Covered this above as well but the loss of Reynolds is going to be huge in my mind.  Ausborn sounds legit but he’s still a true freshman.  Think back to Trayveon Williams and how he faded down the stretch.  A 12 game SEC schedule is not a high school schedule.  There’s going to be an adjustment period.  I know there are some other talented freshmen but they’re still freshmen in the SEC and that’s tough.  Some people are making this out to be a strength of the team because of talent and depth but we’ve had that before as Ricky Seals Jones and Speedy Noil were supposed to have NFL talent and we know how that turned out from a production standpoint.  We’ll see but I think our passing attack takes a step back with the loss of Reynolds.

Offensive Line – The offensive line should be better this year as the interior of the line has one more year under its belt.  Our tackles seem serviceable with Sutherland and Martin but let’s not kid ourselves this is not our usual offensive line where there’s NFL caliber talent anywhere on the line.  It will be a decent offensive line but it won’t be anywhere near as dominant as we’ve seen in the past under Sumlin.  Once again strength and conditioning are being blamed but maybe it’s just lack of talent that’s been recruited.  Only so much a strength and conditioning coach can do if there’s no talent.  I love Jim Turner and think he’ll get the most out of them but this isn’t a dominant offensive line that can overcome a bad game plan, play calls, or errors by the skill position.

DEFENSE

Coaching – It’s no secret I love John Chavis as a defensive coordinator.  The dude looks and talks the part.  Prior to the last half of last season he executed the part too.  However, the last half of the season made me wonder if he’s like a pitcher that lost his fastball.  Our defense got torched starting in the Mississippi State game.  I was ready to crown this defense the Wrecking Crew again after the Auburn and Arkansas games but I think the Tennessee game took a toll on the defense.  In that game they started holding guys up and trying to strip the ball which helped as we got 7 turnovers that game.  However, I think the team lost the fundamental ability to tackle which I thought was Chavis’ real calling card as a DC.  Up until that game it was the best tackling unit I’ve seen since way back when RC was head coach.  Hopefully the second half was just a blip and Chief gets his defense back to fundamentals of assignment football and tackling.  The jury is currently out on him though based on the second half of last season.

Defensive Tackle – We’re loaded here.  We really are.  This is definitely the strength of the defense which is good because you have to be loaded at defensive tackle if you want to compete in the SEC.  I just hope Daylon Mack finally takes that next step as he seems to have first round NFL talent but hasn’t played up to it.  This unit is the anchor of our defense and I feel good about them.

Defensive End – As talked about above the loss of Garrett is going to be massive as well as Hall although it seems he might have underachieved last season.  His talent was still real.  There’s actually some decent talent here but it hasn’t produced up until this point.  Not the talent of Garrett and Hall but it’s not terrible talent.  We just don’t have much depth here either.  I think the defensive ends can be serviceable but serviceable defensive ends aren’t usually enough in the SEC.

Linebackers – I’m torn on the linebackers.  It seems we finally have some depth here but I’m not sure as not sure if the true freshmen will be able to provide that depth.  I like Anthony Hines and Marchiol but they’re still true freshmen entering the SEC.  We heard all about how Tyrell Dodson was ready to crush heads in the SEC but the dude had problems executing his assignments last season.  I think Dodson will be better this season but while we now apparently have depth at linebacker staying healthy and executing assignments are the next step.  Neither of those have been a strength of our linebackers under Sumlin so not sure this is the season it becomes different.

Safety – We’re totally fine here with Watts and Wilson and Larry Pryor looks like he can fill some of the void left by Justin Evans.  Much like defensive tackle this is a strength of our team.  Watts is like a little Honey Badger as he just has a nose for getting the football when we need it most.

Cornerback – This is an area of concern for me.  Nick Harvey was spotty as a coverage guy last season and he’s out for this season.  Looks like Willis and Oliver will be the starters who are decent but I don’t think outstanding.  My main concern at the corner back position is with no pass rush these guys are going to get exposed.  Chavis likes to play aggressive with his corners and if there’s no pass rush these guys could get exposed big time.  I think we could see some big passes against us this year if Chavis doesn’t back these guys off a tad unless we develop a pass rush.

SPECIAL TEAMS:

Outside of Christian Kirk returning kicks I’ve never seen anything from the special teams under Kevin Sumlin and Jeff Banks.  I mean nothing.  We’ve had some decent punters but even then they weren’t Shane Lechler.  Most elite teams have really good punters so it’s just more of the norm in college football these days.  That should be our expectations.

Last year we had Justin Evans and Keith Ford returning kicks which still boggles my mind.  Those guys are great athletes at their positions but they’re nowhere near the explosive return man you need for big returns.  Evans was a freaking strong safety and he’s returning kickoffs.  I never understood that.  We couldn’t find a single receiver that was fast than Evans and Ford with hands we trust?

Other than Christian Kirk I’d love to know the number of touchdowns we’ve scored on kickoff or punt returns against Power 5 conference teams.  I bet it’s not more than 5 during Sumlin’s 5 years here.  Other than Myles Garrett how many field goals or punts have we blocked against Power 5 conference teams?  I bet it’s not more than 5.  I don’t know how 2017 will be any different for our special teams other than Kirk returning a couple punts for TDs.  This unit has just been a non-factor under Sumlin unless there’s an extremely talented player.  It’s certainly not well schemed and coached in my mind.  It’s not even average.

If I were Sumlin I’d put a poster of Frank Beamer in my Special Teams coach’s office and limit his internet browser to YouTube and videos of Virginia Tech special teams under Frank Beamer.  I’m not kidding.  For some reason some people think Jeff Banks is a good special teams coach and I can’t think of why as there hasn’t been big plays out of our special teams since Sumlin has been here.

Summary

This team isn’t horrible by any stretch but I don’t see how it’s better than the 2016 team.  This really reminds me of the 2013 season where everyone thought we’d be fine but no one truly analyzed the losses because we had Johnny Football back.  That 2013 team lost a lot on defense and a few key spots on the offense like Luke Joeckel and Ryan Swope.  That 2013 team lost two more games in the regular season than the 2012 but that 2012 team won 10 games so 8 wins wound up being respectable.  Last year’s team only won 8 games so if the 2013 and 2017 teams parallel the previous season’s team we’re looking at 6 wins in 2017.

Next week I’ll take a game by game look at the schedule and make predictions.  I honestly think there’s anywhere between 5 to 9 wins on the schedule.  I think 9 wins is VERY extreme but I don’t think the schedule is quite as tough as we originally imagined so 9 wins is possible.  It’s still daunting but there’s some factors about each game I’ll cover next week.