In my initial analysis of Mike Elko after his firing, I stated I felt the Aggies finally got the hire right. This was after four failed attempts with Fran, Sherman, Sumlin, and Jimbo. I’m going to retract the statement I think we finally hired the right guy.

I’m not retracting my statement because Elko was a bad hire. I’m retracting my statement because I have no idea if Mike Elko will be successful at Texas A&M. We all HOPE Elko was the right hire, but nobody has any real clue if he was the right hire or not at this point. Everybody is just guessing.

We all know Mike Elko appears to be a tried and true football coach. He doesn’t seem to be some slick salesman or some dude who has ridden a hot hand he didn’t have much to do with.

Mike Elko has got to where he is because he’s a tried and true football coach. He’s a football coach above everything else. That I don’t question.

I believe Mike Elko can succeed at Texas A&M, but I wonder if he will be. I’m looking at Mike Elko with a more objective lens than I did with the previous coaches. I drank the Maroon Kool-Aid way too early with Fran, Sumlin, and Jimbo.

What’s the saying? Fool me once; shame on me. Fool me three times; shame on you, Aggie Football head coach, hiring decision-makers.

Like the coaches before him, Mike Elko will be judged on the 12-game schedule and whatever bowl games he attends. The offseason matters, but it doesn’t matter in the grand scheme. The off-season, including signings and practices, is fodder until the games are played.

What matters for Mike Elko is how many wins and losses he’ll have over the next few years. That’s impossible to predict right now.

The biggest epiphany in changing my mind about how I see Elko came the night of the Texas Bowl. Many folks will say it’s a meaningless bowl game, but I’m afraid I have to disagree after watching it.

My greatest takeaway in watching that game was the massive talent deficiency of the Aggies. It was MASSIVE.

Sure, the excuse is there were quite a few injuries, opt-outs, and folks entering the transfer portal. That’s right, but most folks are missing the point – This is the base from which Elko has to work. We lost to a pretty bad Oklahoma State team that night. We lost because we had a severe talent deficiency.

I know we lost our third-string quarterback on the first play, but our cornerbacks got worked by a pedestrian set of receivers and quarterback. Our defensive line and linebackers got very little pressure. We did an excellent job of slowing Oklahoma State’s running game, but the pass defense is a massive concern for me going into 2024.

Offensively, we did decent passing the ball but struggled to establish the running game. Our running backs combined for 15 carries and 47 yards. That’s slightly better than three yards per carry. That’s not a great Oklahoma State defense, and we couldn’t establish the run.

We were down most of the game, so we had no choice but to make up ground through the air. I still would have liked to have seen us establish the run. We abandoned it too soon, but what little we did run could have been more impressive, so that could be a reason.

While 372 yards of passing isn’t terrible, I’d like to present two stats: 1) No passing touchdowns and 2) Max Wright had the longest pass completion of 40 yards.

That isn’t a knock on Max Wright. He’s a good football player who embodies what a Fightin’ Texas Aggie should be. The problem is Max Wright is a tight end and not what one would call a passing threat. This is the second game in a row where he’s had the longest pass completion.

That’s a massive concern for me regarding our receiving corps. It needs to be discussed because there are some plays where these guys flash, but this receiving corps, as it stands right now, is pedestrian. I’m serious. We continue to need more elite-level receivers.

Ainias Smith is the lone exception to the receivers in the six years Jimbo was at the helm. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. You must have receivers who can take on the best secondaries to excel in college football. The Aggies still need to be elite through the air right now.

We can move the ball at times, but for the most part, we can’t routinely press secondaries with our receiving corps. That has got to change and change quickly. I don’t see it happening, though.

Coming out of the Texas Bowl against a VERY beatable Oklahoma State, I have these concerns:
1) An inability to bring pressure by the defensive front.
2) Can’t cover at all.
3) Can’t establish the running game.
4) Receivers can’t consistently dominate.

Other than that, it wasn’t all that bad…

That was not a meaningless bowl game. It was an eye-opener to where things stand with the Aggie football program. It’s not good.

Many of you think Elko will fix it with the transfer portal. While I will give Elko credit, he’s doing everything he can via the transfer portal. However, I equate it to an NFL expansion team trying to bolster its roster via the expansion draft. It really is.

Mike Elko is going to sign roughly 20 guys from the transfer portal. 25% of his scholarship roster will be guys from the transfer portal.

These aren’t SEC starters are even SEC two deep guys he’s signing. Most of these guys are coming from non-Power 5 conferences. They have yet to face elite talent like they’ll be facing in the SEC. They’re all going to go through a massive learning curve if they actually survive the learning curve.

One guy can be an immediate contributor, and that’s the defensive end from Purdue, who led the Big 10 in sacks last season. He looks like the real deal and an excellent get from the transfer portal.
Other than him, these guys have yet to produce much in a major conference.

I like the corner from Kansas State, but we’ll see if his skills transfer to a more physical league with better overall talent.

The rest of these transfers? There are a couple of guys with promise, but I have a question on whether they’re that much better than the guys they will try to replace.

Why does this worry me? The top teams in college football don’t have to load up in the transfer portal. The argument will be they don’t have to because they’re a good football team. That is precisely my argument. They’re not coming off a 5-7 and 7-6 season. Texas A&M has a losing record over the last two seasons.

A&M has received a bad rap related to the transfer portal over the last two years, but you can’t objectively deny that flipping over a roster every year is not the recipe for success. You should use the transfer portal to add talent in critical areas. You shouldn’t use the transfer portal to replace 25% of your roster in one season.

That’s where Texas A&M is right now. Our depth and a few critically talented individuals have left the program. Elko is forced to fill the roster with people from the transfer portal.

I’m sorry. That’s just not ideal.

I fully get the argument Elko is trying to mold the roster with “his guys.” The problem is we are still determining if Elko can truly identify and develop talent. We don’t know that, as there’s no track record of him doing it.

We have two seasons of Mike Elko at Duke, where he went 8-4 and 7-5. That’s pretty decent for Duke, but he also coached in what could be the worst Power 5 conference. I know he lost his quarterback for parts of this season, but didn’t Jimbo lose his quarterback as well?

Why do we give Elko the benefit of the doubt in losing his quarterback but not Jimbo? I’m not defending Jimbo. I just want a head coach where we don’t have to routinely defend the loss of our starting quarterback for the win-loss record.

What Elko did at Duke is impressive, but it’s not like he won the ACC or even a division. His time at Duke is promising, but it’s certainly not definitive for having success at Texas A&M.

As for the 2024 schedule, it is easier because Alabama isn’t on it. However, the Saban news changes that. The 2024 schedule is still a big challenge for a team with around 40% of its scholarships filled with guys who have never taken a snap for the Aggies. I’m including the high school signees and the transfer portal guys in that number.

FORTY PERCENT OF THE ROSTER WILL HAVE NEVER TAKEN A SNAP IN AN AGGIE UNIFORM.

I’m sorry. That’s not ideal.

Elko is bringing in a ton of guys, hoping and praying they can fill half a dozen starting spots if not more. That’s roughly 25% of the starting spots. He needs transfer players to win the job and then play at a high level to win ten games.

I don’t see that happening in Mike Elko’s first year. That doesn’t mean he can’t be successful long term, but it’s much easier to be successful in college football with some early excitement from a coaching staff that wins football games.

This will be more of an 8-4 team in 2024.

When we fired Jimbo, I thought the right coach could come in and win right away with our roster. Mike Elko has decided to take a different approach and turn this into a 2-3 year build. If that pays off, I’m good with it, but I have massive questions right now.

While the transfer portal is new, Mike Elko is attempting to do something that nobody else is doing. I don’t know of any other team overhauling 40% of their roster in a single season. It’s a bold move, for sure.

Once the final roster is set with transfer portal players and the final signing class is done, I’ll look at how the team shapes up.

I believe we’ll be worse off going into the 2024 season than in 2023. I hope I’m wrong, but after watching the Texas Bowl and realizing what Elko is doing with the roster, I have some concerns about what Aggie Football is capable of in 2024.

The Aggies have to compete with all of college football, and if you accurately compare where things stand right now, it could be better. In a vacuum, it seems exciting to get all new players. There are concerns when you compare it to the rest of college football.

Only time will tell if those concerns are real.