puppies

Thoughts from the Idaho Game

Although the score wasn’t as wide as we all would have hoped, there are a lot of positives to take from Saturday’s game.  Well, that’s assuming you didn’t wager too much on the Aggies covering.  I tend to say I don’t care about statistics and only care about the score.  That’s generally true but we dominated Idaho more than the score indicates.  The offense moved up and down the field for the most part but stalled out a couple of times resulting in field goals instead of touchdowns.  Defensively we held them scoreless until late in the game.  Score doesn’t show it but we were really solid.  Still, you wish the offense didn’t stall out but it happens.

Just so you know I left early in the 4th quarter to head to the tailgate and catch the OU/FSU game since our game was in hand and Tanny was out.  Call me a two percenter but I’d tend to blame the shakes of no cold beer than not being a true Aggie.  As fate would have it I watched the FSN replay at lunch today while I took down a queso covered steak burrito at Chuy’s.  I was able to fill in what I didn’t see in person for the most part but you have no idea how much I’m fighting through a nap right now.  Really fighting it.

OFFENSE – Had we not stalled out a few times this would have been as dominant as a performance as SMU.  There was at least 8 points left on the field due to offense stalls if not more.  As it stands I didn’t see any new wrinkles and Idaho was certainly selling out the run which factored into quite a few plays.  They tended to fill the holes that are normally there and forced us to stretch our runs out further down the line of scrimmage giving their guys more time to flow and stop the run.  We still looked really good running the ball but Idaho got lots of guys to the line of scrimmage most of the game to slow us down.  I kept waiting for us to break one with so many guys selling out but we never hit it.  Despite the selling out we still gained yards on the ground but smartly Sherman went to the air a little more often than I bet he thought he would.  Now, should we be worried we couldn’t line up and smash Idaho in the mouth?  A little bit but I have to imagine Sherm will have more wrinkles later in the season for teams that want to try this approach.

I don’t remember a lot of play action which is what you normally do when a team is run blitzing like crazy.  You also fake a reverse or even try it.  I think Sherm was committed to the run to get some more film for assignment teaching.  There were four times in the 1st half (maybe one early in the 3rd quarter) where we lined up in a tight bunch formation to the wide side.  Of those four times, we ran a sweep to the wide side.  It was pretty obvious it was coming and we got a few yards but never busted it.  Idaho recognized it and sold out stretching it out for a minimal gain.  What I noticed the times we did was that our pulling tackle and tight end/fullback weren’t clean on who they were blocking.  There were a lot of white jerseys and our guys looked a little hesitant on who to block because there were so many.   Hopefully Sherm just wanted some film to teach more assignments and recognition.  I wonder what it would look like if Idaho hadn’t sold out but at the same time you use that tendency to set something up later on in a real game.  I’m fine just trying to maul Idaho throughout even if we weren’t successful due to numbers.

Tanny looked really solid.  Not as good as SMU but he looked really solid none the less.  He missed some passes early in the second half but for most of the first half he made quick reads and let the ball fly.  His pocket presence is still very strong but there were a couple of times he held the ball a bit too long in the pocket and almost got sacked.  If anything that’s a good thing to remind him to not get too comfortable standing around.  It’s only natural to push it against a team like Idaho after getting comfortable against SMU.

Something else I saw Tanny do which made me smile was out throwing his receiver on deep balls.  He threw two deep balls to Fuller and one Fuller jumped out to catch and the second time it was too far.  On a deep ball you want to throw it too deep rather than too short so only your receiver can go get it.  If you’re going to go deep and underthrow it you might as well punt as the DB is usually in position to catch an underthrown ball.  Now, the second one appeared to re-aggravate Fuller’s hamstring so maybe that wasn’t a good thing but still, I’ve wondered if Tanny could out throw Fuller and he finally showed it on Saturday.  It’s great to have that on film as it’s a reminder to defensive coordinators that you leave Fuller on an island and Tanny can find him and get it out there.  Tanny came out late in the third quarter so I’m guessing Sherm thought there was nothing more for Tanny to gain by taking snaps but he looked fine in the time he was in there.

Our receivers looked fine for the most part.  There was one egregious drop that I remember but most of the missed passes were on Tanny not putting it where it needs to be.  There’s not much more to say about the receivers as it was just another normal day at the office.  The tight ends looked pretty good and have turned into a very good safety valve for when Tanny rolls out.  Tanny does a real nice job of looking downfield to use the tight end as a secondary receiver when there’s nothing else downfield.

Same thing with the offensive line.  They had a lot of numbers to deal with as Idaho constantly brought people attacking the line of scrimmage and they handled it well.  They did fine on pass protection with only one breakdown where Tanny avoided a sure sack and there might have been another breakdown as well.  Only one holding call that I remember and no false starts that I remember so that’s always a positive.

All in all you would like to have seen drives not stall out and see Tanny be a little better on completions.  67% is certainly not bad but the way this offense is built and considering the opponent you would like to see a percentage closer to what Tanny had against SMU where he was 80%.  You’ll take 67% against B12 opponents but it was Idaho so there was certainly room for improvement.  Let’s hope Sherm starts adding more wrinkles as we get into the meat of the schedule so this offense looks a little more complex and confuses defenses.

DEFENSE – Trying to analyze the defense is really tough.  We looked really solid but the stats outside of total yards don’t really bear it out.  We had no turnovers and only 3 sacks with two by corners on corner blitzes.  Time of possession is almost equal which is strange considering how dominant our offense was and how many 3 and outs our defense got in the first half.  I know they cranked up some TOP in the 4th quarter but at half it was split.  I remember seeing that stat at half and thinking it was weird because we moved the ball with no big plays.  So, in the interest of evaluating our defense I’m throwing out the stats and the 4th quarter as a whole.  Sometimes you just have to go with what your eyeballs saw and not worry about the numbers backing it up.  Also, it looked like we actually would have stopped Idaho from scoring had it not been for a penalty on a 3rd down where we stopped them near the goal line.  I was in a queso induced haze so I’m not positive that’s what I saw.

I thought our defensive line looked REALLY good again.  Not dominant but they created push all night long.  Sure, they were going against a lesser opponent but it’s still good to see our 3 man front occupying and moving the blockers of the other team.   I thought we had more sacks but my guess the QB was scrambling for a 1-2 yard gain which isn’t technically a sack but might as well be.  All in all this unit did what I expect them to do much of the season which is engage and push around the offensive line being disruptive but not dominant.  One person I’d like to make note of is Ben “Straight Outta” Compton.  This was his first game at NT as a true freshman and he looked pretty good.  Not dominant but he held his own.  Really reminded me of a bigger Lucas Patterson in that he’s not the biggest guy out there but you can tell his he has solid technique so with more time he only gets better.  Let’s hope so as having 3 fresh NTs will prove very beneficial to this defense since it’s a focal point.

Now, our linebackers.  Go get a cup of coffee as this might take a while.  First off, I’m just going to say the person I called out last week failed to impress again.  I thought Damontre Moore would have gotten more snaps but Russell got the majority of the snaps and just failed to do anything.  Not sure if Moore is still in the doghouse, not in shape, or what is going on but from what Russell has shown this season and what Moore showed last year it’s time for Moore to get the majority of the snaps.  I don’t get why he didn’t play more in this game unless it was a matter of giving Russell every chance to maintain the starting position since he hasn’t played there as much as Moore.  If Moore is not starting this Saturday I’m going to be VERY concerned.  Russell is a great story but he can be taken care of by a single man.  You don’t need to chip him, you don’t need to line a tight end up to help on him, and you don’t need to keep a back in the backfield to look for him.  I don’t expect anyone to fully replace Von but would like to see someone that the offense has to at least think about or our guy can dominate the single person assigned to them.  Russell just doesn’t have that so let Damontre go.  This is just really looking to shape up to be a Mike Goodson situation where it’s CLEAR who the better player is but Sherm wants to reward the guy who practices better or goes to every class or something else other than the performance when there’s a real live game being played.  I can’t help but think something is at play when watching Russell not really do anything and know the potential Moore has.  Maybe lack of PT is the only thing Moore responds to but whatever it is it needs to get straightened out pretty quick.  Maybe Von needs to call Moore.  I don’t know but after two games it’s clear Moore should be starting and seeing the majority of the snaps at the Joker position.  I think we would even be better served getting Brandon Alexander more snaps as he looked good at times on Saturday night.  On the other side Porter looks really good so need to waste a lot of words on him as he is who he is.  He just needs to be TJE’s little buddy on the outside cleaning up what TJE disrupts. Symbiosis at its finest.  Not a knock on Porter at all because he’s really solid but no doubt he benefits due to the attention TJE is going to get.

Inside linebacker.  Still unsure what we have here.  We did look better against Idaho but no one is standing out and a multitude of guys are coming in and out so it’s hard to really judge.  At Monday’s presser, Coach Sherman and DeRuyter mentioned Shaun Ward would move inside.  Based on his size I think this is a fine move but it also confirms what I’m seeing where there’s lots of room for improvement.  Now, to be fair we’re not blowing assignments left and right like we did before DeRuyter got here but no one is making plays left and right.  However, in a 3-4 your ILBs have to make plays inside.  You basically sacrifice your 3 defensive linemen to free up your 2 ILBs to make plays.  We’re clearly not doing that.  Garrick is the most consistent in my mind but it’s clear he’s missing Hodges.   I think Garrick should be getting the majority of the snaps and looking to figure out who to complement him with.

Of those left, Jonathan Stewart looks to be the most consistent but he’s not disruptive by any stretch.  He’s around the ball and helping with tackles so he’s not horrible but you’d like to see someone ready to crack heads inside.  Donnie Baggs is very hesitant but he’s a true freshman.  He has decent measurables but he’s just young.  Steven Jenkins passes the eyeball test and when he’s not hesitant you can see he could be the answer.  However, he still plays hesitant.  So, Stewart is our most consistent followed by Jenkins and then Baggs in my mind.  I’m almost of the mindset of getting Jenkins more snaps to see if he can learn the system on the fly because I think he offers the most potential right now.  Maybe you just keep rotating these guys hoping one finally clicks like Hodges last year.  It’ll be interesting to see what they do with Ward at ILB but it’s clear that there’s concern inside if they’re moving Ward.  To be fair though the ILBs aren’t terrible by any stretch but you just hope to improve and solidify the guys that you have.  We’ve had ILBs in the past that would make the guys we have now look all conference.  So, these guys should get credit for being better than we’ve had in the past but we still have a ways to go to be dominant.

I would hope at some point we have a starting four of Moore, Williams, Jenkins, and Porter for our four linebacking spots.  Based on what I’ve seen they offer the most promise right now.  Hopefully with increased snaps they all just kind of gel together but in the little time we’ve been looking for Von and Hodges replacements they offer the most promise.  We’ll still be susceptible to runs up the middle but should defend them better if Jenkins can develop.

In the secondary it’s similar to the DLine.  The Idaho QB didn’t make any long passes and tended to dump off quite a bit.  He didn’t get many of his yards until 4th quarter garbage time.  We didn’t look to have any busted coverage so it seems like some things were cleaned up from the SMU game but its clear Idaho isn’t even close to being the passing team that SMU was.  Howard Matthews did look pretty good in the brief snaps he got.  Campbell and Hunter are clearly our starting safeties but it’s nice to see there could be some talent waiting in the wings.  All in all the secondary was pretty solid but not dominant and I’ll take pretty solid all day long.  They just didn’t have a lot of opportunity to be dominant.

The one wrinkle I saw our defense do this game I haven’t seen in quite some time is make pre-snap shifts along the defensive line and have our ILBs show blitz in the gaps and then back off at the snap.  They did this a lot in the 1st quarter and then tapered it off for the rest of the game.  Some of it had to do with Idaho making an audible after our shift so maybe that factored into it more than anything.  I’m hoping this is a pre-cursor to messing with OkSU’s offense as they like to make their playcall based on what the defense shows.  I don’t know why more defenses don’t adjust and show fake looks but would like to see it tried against OkSU.  Surely with enough film study you can identify what types of plays OSU tends to run based on pre-snap looks. We shall see.

SPECIAL TEAMS – Bullock got a few more tries than I would have liked but he hit on all but one so that’s good to see.  He was 3-4 on tries and 2-3 in the 40 yard range.  That’s an improvement on being 1-10 from 20 yards which seems like we used to be.  Return game was fine as Judie had a nice kick-off return and no one dropped a punt from what I remember.  Punting was a head scratcher as Epperson hit a 40 yarder which is about as good as it gets with him.  Kaser shanked one for 23 yards on his first attempt and then boomed one 68 yards for a touchback according to the stats as I was tailgating by the time he booted that one.  I have to think Kaser gets the majority of snaps at punter if he can in fact boom them 68 yards even if it was slightly wind aided.

 

Oklahoma State Look Ahead – Up until watching OSU play Arizona and watching us play Idaho I felt REALLY good about our chances against OSU.  I still feel confident but not nearly as much as I did coming into the season.  This is gonna sound cliché but I think the team that wins either has the ball last or turns it over the least.  This just looks like two evenly matched teams that can move the ball with suspect defenses.  I will say I think our defense appears better just because we have DeRuyter who has proven to make chicken salad out of chicken sheet.

OSU is going to get points and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 45-38 game going either way.  The other factor will be the defense that trades touchdowns for field goals.  If I’m Sherman I tell DeRuyter to keep it basic and to keep OSU in front unless he knows for sure he can get a blitz to work.  I also tell him I don’t give a damn about any stat other than the score where he has to keep A&M within 7 points for most of the game unless the A&M offense is just clicking and he can dial up the pressure to see if he can put a foot on the throat of the OSU offense.

My main reason for feeling different about this game is that OSU has a legit ground game.  I really thought they’d be one dimensional with the loss of Kendall Hunter but they’ve shown they really have the ability to run the ball and are very balanced.  This brings our weakness at ILB into play and I think OSU looks to exploit it and will likely be able to because they have a VERY good offensive line and solid backs.  If I hadn’t seen the running game against Arizona and Tulsa I’d feel much better about this game.  Sure, our defense should be better than those two defenses but we’re still a borderline Top 50 defense at best.

Offensively coming into the season I expected Sherm to lean on the OSU defense with the run but after the first two games I’m not sure that’s the answer.  After seeing Idaho sell out to the run I think we need to keep a balanced 50/50 approach with lots of play actions and roll outs to keep OSU from firing LBs and DBs straight up the field.  We need OSU to worry about defending a 20 yard box rather than just the line of scrimmage.  I know Sherm likes to be wrinkle free but I’d be fine seeing Cyrus attempt a tailback pass on one of those bunch formation sweeps.  Not get too cute but let the OSU DC know it’s there.  Also set up a reverse out of the formation with the power sweep if you see OSU selling out like Idaho did.

It’s going to be a close game but it’s at Kyle and we’ve played OSU close in the last two years so I think this is the year Sherm finally gets over on Mike Gundy.  However, make no mistake this is about as evenly matched teams as you get.  Two head coaches with heavy influence on their offense and two DCs with proven track records.  Star players at the skill positions on offense with solid offensive lines and just enough playmakers on defense to make them competitive.  Might as well be mirrors on the field instead of players.  Kyle Field will be rocking and I think that makes the difference.  Aggies 41, Cowboys 35.

BTHOOSU!

2011 Fightin’ Texas Aggie Season Prediction

I’ve been trying to resist getting caught up in the blowhard’s pre-season predictions because to be quite honest I don’t care about pre-season predictions and talk.  I only care about the end of the season.  Well, here we sit on the Monday of game week and I can’t focus on work because I’m looking forward to 10:00 a.m. on Saturday morning when I roll out of Cowtown with the new travel trailer in tow for opening weekend in Aggieland.  I’ve got a pretty good “weekend” planned.  I’ll be dove hunting on Thursday, Baylor/TCU on Friday, and then Aggieland for the rest of the weekend.  The only downfall is class is in session on Monday so PTTS says I have to be out of the RV lot by 7:00 a.m. on Monday morning.  I never really had anything against PTTS but they’ll be getting the angry shaking fist as I roll out Monday morning with cobwebs in my head.

Since I can’t focus on work I decided I’d take a stab at predicting the 2011 season for the Fightin’ Texas Aggies.  I figure my opinion is worth as much as anyone else’s because it’s all guesswork at this point.  For you first timers on this list I used to blog my thoughts on each game but quit last year.  I took a new job the first of September and lost my train commute which is where I would do the write ups.  I’ve been asked to do it again so I’ll be opining after each game this season if you’re interested.

Before I get to my prediction of each game, I want to touch on each facet of the team.

OFFENSE – I don’t think this offense is as loaded as people think.  When I say loaded I’m talking about an offense that just torches teams for over 500 yards a game and 40 points.  This is a VERY good offense but Tanny is a game manager and not a playmaker.  That’s not a bad thing at all but don’t expect Tanny to light it up deep very often.  This offense is built to keep the defense guessing either by pounding the ball or quick read passes/play actions.  The center piece is clearly the backfield of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael.  Cyrus is perfect for the blocking scheme and Christine is just a home run hitter.  The line is still developing with youth but the interior guys are better at displacing lineman than pass blocking so you’ll see a lot of runs up the middle.  Not saying we can’t pass block but it’s pretty clear our guys are better at zone blocking which is fine.  Our receivers are VERY solid but Tanny is just not a big arm QB.  Not trying to knock him as he’ll be VERY good when it’s all said and done but don’t expect him to be firing downfield like a Ryan Mallett.  He’s not going to be on stage in New York for the Heisman so don’t expect it.  I’d rather win games than put up yards and lose because you’re playing behind so just sit tight during games and know the outcome should be just fine.  The offense will keep us close in the first half but should start to pull away in the second half in most games.

DEFENSE – On defense I think we’ll be less aggressive.  Much of it will be due to the loss of Von but I think our LBs are the most questionable part of our defense.  I think Coach D will be less aggressive between the 20s leaving his LBs in positions to slow down the offense and not necessarily make plays.  When you miss on trying to make a play the results are usually good for the offense.  I think he’ll definitely dial it up from time to time but I think he’s going to be careful unless a true playmaker really emerges.  The most experience and talent is clearly in the DL and secondary.  I don’t think any of them are All-Americans except for maybe Coryell Judie but they’re all solid players with a year’s worth of experience in Coach D’s scheme.  I don’t know that this defense will be as good as it was in the last six games but I don’t think it falls off very much at all.  It’ll just be more consistent rather than aggressive.  With our offense I’m just fine with that.  I think our offense and defense will compliment each other very well.

SPECIAL TEAMS – The ghost of Frank Beamer weeps every time he watches the Aggies on special teams.  For various reasons we’ve just really sucked on special teams for what seems like 10 years.  Not sure this year will be any different.  I think we’ll be fine in the field goal department with Randy Bullock back for his 12th season and Judie should be just fine on kickoff returns.  I have no idea if we’ll have a serviceable punter but I know for CERTAIN it’ll be better than last year.  It can’t get any worse.  Any of you reading this could punt and not do worse.  As for punt returns just pray we hold onto the ball and worry about yards second.

Here’s how I think the games shake out:

 

SMU – I know Mike Sherman got a rude awakening against Arkie State his first season and I PRAY that never happens again.  I don’t think it happens here.  SMU is a MUCH better team than most people think but I don’t think SMU has the ponies (damn right pun intended) to keep up with A&M’s horsepower.  SMU will score some points as DeRuyter teaches some youngsters his defense but the Aggie offense will roll.  I think we go up at halftime 21-14 causing Aggies everywhere to want to jump off the third deck.  SMU will score very quickly due to June Jones spotting something in film and then score another TD on a defensive brain fart sometime in the 2nd quarter.  Offensively Sherman will try to work all facets of the game and we’ll have a couple drives stall out.  Pass/Run will be 50/50 as he lets Tanny work on his passes and hopefully learning to hit Jeff Fuller deep which is Tanny’s glaring weakness.  Tanny is going to have to show on film he can hit Fuller deep or good teams will play Fuller man on man tempting him to throw deep and cheat safeties to cut off all those underneath crossing routes that Tanny and Sherm love.  At least that’s what a smart DC will do.  In the first half I expect Tanny to hit Fuller deep, hit Swopes in the slot, and then have Cyrus bust off a 20 yarder.  In the second half Coach D will make adjustments and June Jones will be out of tricks so they might score 1-2 more touchdowns in the 4th quarter when the second stringers are in.  Offensively Sherm leans much more heavily to the run and we score another 3-4 touchdowns walking away with an easy victory.  Score – Aggies 45, Mustangs, 24.  The other score is PTTS 1, Chewy 0 due to the 7:00 a.m. exit time.  Come on Loftin, call a snow day and let me sleep in.

 

IDAHO – I honestly don’t know much about the Vandals other than they play in a big ass gym.  Seriously.  It’s like the Alamodome had relations with the McFerrin Facility and produced some half field house half Alamodome structure of amazement.  Think I’m joking, check this thing out.  It’s unreal – http://www.govandals.com//pdf4/414253.pdf?DB_OEM_ID=17100  I also know that the Vandals (reminds me of my youth)  have improved over the recent few years where they get some mention from time to time for having a decent record but I also know they haven’t upset anyone and tend to shy away from bigger games.  Think a Nuevo Wyoming if you will.  Boise trucked them in that whatever the hell it is venue last season so it’s pretty clear they just don’t have the talent of the better programs in college football.  I expect much of the same from the SMU game but a better defensive effort.  We’ll go into half 28-3 and pretty much replicate it in the second half.  Wish we had a better tune up game for Okie State but you take what Bill Byrne and Dan Beebe schedule.  Score – Aggies 55, Vandals 6.  This is also when I get back to owning PTTS because I can sleep late in the trailer and roll out of Dodge when the Gatorade and ibuprofen finally kicks in.

 

OKIE STATE – Third game of the year and the Pokies from Okie roll into town thanks to our new 9 game B12 schedule.  Wait, maybe I should say our ONLY 9 game B12 schedule.  Suck it Dan and DeLoss!  For some reason I’m not too nervous about this game.  OSU is ranked much like us hovering right around the Top 10 depending on the poll you look at.  It’s going to be a tough game no doubt but we know exactly what OSU is.  We’ve played them tough the last two seasons and legitimately should have beaten them last year.  Blame JJ all you want but the reality is we came out flat in the 3rd quarter on both sides of the ball and that’s the real reason we lost.  Turnovers hurt no doubt but if we don’t come out flat in the 3rd quarter those turnovers just don’t happen.  Because of that I think the Aggies win this game.  OSU has a suspect defense, lost their genius OC, and lost the very underrated Kendall Hunter.  I think Coach D brackets Blackmon and runs a few blitzes that get to Weeden to slow them down.  Offensively I wouldn’t be surprised to see a run/pass ratio of 70/30.  There’s no reason not to.  OSU can and will score points, so in an ode to the great R.C. Slocum, Sherm plays ball control offense just pounding the ground and controlling the clock.  If Sherm has appeared to have learned one thing in his past three years it’s that he can’t abandon the run game like he’s done a few times.  He’s got a seasoned line and two DAMN good backs so there’s no reason he shouldn’t lean on them and we win.  Score – Aggies 31, Pokes 17.

 

ARKANSAS – One of our new conference rivals.  Now all of a sudden the game in JerryWorld makes more sense but I don’t think it’s what Byrne had in mind back in the day.  Now this is a game that makes me nervous.  Real nervous.  It looks like Arkansas should be “worse” with the loss of Mallett and Kniles Davis but don’t let Bobby Petrino fool you.  Dude is an offensive mastermind.  Tyler Wilson is no slouch and I think he’ll actually be more productive than Mallett.  Mallett had all the talent in the world but much like gunslinging quarterbacks he made some costly mistakes in the 4th quarter in the Bama and Sugar Bowl costing his team a chance at a victory.  Mallett doesn’t make those mistakes and Arkie could be 12-1 with their only loss being to Auburn.  Speaking of the Auburn game, Tyler Wilson filled in admirably on the road and actually lead Arkie to a lead early in the 4th quarter over the eventual national champions.  Auburn just had too much but Wilson looked pretty good in a true baptism by fire.  Then again, Garrett Gilbert didn’t actually look all that bad as a non-experienced true freshman when he had to replace Colt McCoy in the national championship game and completely spit the bit last season.  Then again, Bobby Petrino certainly isn’t Greg Davis and Mack Brown.  I fully expect this to be a complete chess game that will be VERY close.  I think the difference is that Petrino will know when to take his shots and get them.  You’ll see a lot of ball control on both sides of the offense with neither coach wanting to make a mistake but for some reason I think Petrino will get a couple big scores.  Sherm is going to do what he should have done in the Cotton Bowl which is to lean on the running game so I think we’ll have a real punchers chance needing Cyrus and Christine to deliver a couple big blows.  We get those big blows and I think we win.  However, the beat down Aggie in me says Arkie gets them and we lose.  Score – Aggies 16, Arkie 20.

 

TEXAS TECH  – Our first true road game and at Tech no less.  For some reason I don’t worry about Tech under Sherman like I do with Fran and R.C.’s late years.  I love Tubbs as a head coach because the man can flat out recruit but his talent is still lacking.  I think Sherm comes in and just absolutely leans on Tech’s new 4-2-5 defense.  It won’t be a blow out by any stretch but I think A&M establishes their dominance early and often.  Coming off the Arkie game the Aggies will find the Red Raiders much less talented and like what Sherman is going to try and do all season is establish the run early and often.  No reason not to with the team he has assembled.  I think defensively we’ll be fine in this game as I don’t think Tech has near the offense they had under Leach.  I know that’s like saying water is wet but that’s a huge difference in our ability to compete.  Our offense leans on their defense hopefully getting up by a couple of scores and then all of a sudden Coach D knows they’re going to try and go through the air and has a cushion to blitz with.  They’ll get some yards but Coach D will really tighten up in the red zones limiting Tech to lots of field goal chances.  Score – Aggies 31, Tech 16.

 

BAYLOR – The final Battle of the Brazos?  Could be.  Make sure to keep your ticket stub and get a picture of you and your wife/girlfriend/mistress/buddy’s girlfriend/paid escort with the scoreboard in the background as a memento.  You’ll always want to remember where you where for the last installment.  I know I should be afraid of Baylor but for some reason I’m not this year.  We’re in Kyle and I think Sherm and Coach D really figured them out in the second half.  I think RGIII is a tremendous athlete but I think his late season performance showed what kind of QB he really is.  If you can get to him, it REALLY affects him.  Getting to him is easier said than done but I think we will.  Like Sherman will try and do all year I think he’ll lean on Baylor’s defense early and keep the game in control.  Griffin is going to get his but we’ll try to limit him as much as possible by keeping him on the bench.  I also can’t get the image of Baylor spitting the bit against Illinois in the Texas Bowl out of my mind.  Baylor got down early and they showed no resolve in wanting to get back in the game.  I love Phil Bennett as a DC and it’ll help Baylor in other games but I just really believe in our line and running backs.  Especially at home.  We establish a decent lead and hit Griffin a few times and we’ll cruise to victory.  I don’t think the scoreboard will reflect a true dominating effort but we’ll always feel in control of this one.  Score – Aggies 34, Baylor 24.

 

IOWA STATE – Uh, uh, uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, uh, uhhhhhhhhhh.  Not sure what to write other than to say it’s on the road and let’s not hope we have a letdown in this game.  It’s a definite trap game but what most people don’t realize or forget is that trap games tend to happen to passing teams and turnover prone teams.  Sometimes you just can’t get in rhythm through the air or the turnovers just go completely against you.  Now, ISU is a pretty decent team so I don’t think we blow them out and wouldn’t be shocked to see us go into halftime only up 14-10.  However, like most good running teams you just continue to lean on them and running gets easier in the second half.  If we lose I wouldn’t be shocked but I certainly would be really surprised.  Score – Aggies 35, Cyclones 16.

 

MIZZOU – I’ve always considered Gary Pinkel to be the more handsome, successful version of Dennis Franchione.  People talk really great about him because along the way he wins a big game here and there but can never string it together.  For some reason he’s also had REALLY talented quarterbacks.  I don’t think it’s anything he’s doing but with the likes of Brad Smith, Chase Daniels, and Blaine Gabbert it sure makes coaching a heck of a lot easier.  Pinkel looked like he was going to have a great season beating OU after destroying us at Kyle but then lost to Nebraska and Tech in back to back weeks and then capping the season off with a loss to Iowa in the Insight Bowl.  He gets to come back to Kyle and I don’t think Sherman will forget the embarrassment from the season before.  Once again, Sherman will stick to his script of run the ball, run the ball, and run the ball with success.  I know it sounds REALLY boring that we’re just going to run the ball down people’s throats but one thing Sherman has consistently said in his losses is that he regrets abandoning the run too soon.  Now, maybe my maroon tinted glasses are too maroon but I can’t help but thinking this line is going to be better and our running backs are studly so why do anything else.  Now, this assumes a healthy season which it’s hard to factor in with these predictions.  Like I said, Tannys is not a playmaker and is a game manager through and through which is just fine.  We’ll no doubt throw the ball to keep it mixed up but I fully expect to see run/pass ratios in the 60/40 range and even 70/30 range.  There’s no reason not to expect Sherman to commit to the ground game and be patient with it allowing it to do what it do which is keep the game fairly close in the first half and pull away in the second half.  I don’t think we’ll roll over Mizzou but you’ll see more of the same where we hold the ball at least 35 minutes and keep the Mizzou offense off the field.  Score – Aggies 31, Tigers 19.

 

OKLAHOMA – Bob Stoops has lost TWICE in Norman during his tenure.  TWICE.  Once to Les Miles and once to Gary Patterson.  Rick Perry has served more terms in the Governor’s Mansion than Bob Stoops has lost games in Norman.  Now, Mack Brown has never had to march into Norman so it’s skewed ever so slightly because even if Mack had pulled off one win a piece with a Vince or Colt team we’d be looking at FOUR.  Would that have really changed much?  Don’t think so.  Mack wasn’t winning in Norman with Chris Simms.  Quite simply put, OU is REALLY tough to win at home against.  I just don’t know if this A&M team is ready to take that step.  I’d like to think they can but damn the numbers say we can’t.  I do expect a close game and more of the same from Sherm where he’s going to try and lean on the OU defense on the ground and find some success.  I can’t help but think Ryan Broyles is going to have a REALLY solid game both through the air and on punt returns.  He’s probably the best overall player in the conference and something says he’s going to shine in this game.  We won’t be embarrassed by our performance but sometimes the best player on the field makes the difference and I just can’t help but see Broyles making a statement.  I think Landry Jones is a little overrated in the QB department but he’ll get the ball to Broyles enough and he’ll do the rest.  I could even see us going up 17-14 at halftime but at some point special teams will rear its ugly head and Broyles will capitalize.  Yes, I’m the beat down Aggie.  Score – Aggies 24, Sooners 28.  It’ll be close but it’s gonna hurt.

 

KANSAS STATE – So after a heartbreaking loss to the Sooners we have to get on a plane and visit the location of one of the most embarrassing losses in recent Aggie memory.  It sucks to have KSU thump you two years ago but when Bill Snyder makes his triumphant return to college football at the age of 105 you expect to win these games.  Especially since A&M for some reason always had Snyder’s number.  Two years ago we laid a serious steamer at Snyder’s self named stadium, field, fieldhouse, or whatever they named after the guy who might honestly be the most amazing coach in college football for what he did his first time through Manhattan.  However, I just see this time being different because Sherm can go back to his preferred formula of leaning on the defense and limiting the other teams offense.  Sherman will get back to basics after the OU loss and remind his team how they win football games in workman like fashion.  Plus, I can’t help but think there are enough guys that still remember the game two years ago and won’t let an ambush happen.  I think we win this game in convincing fashion.  Score – Aggies 35, Wildcats 17.

 

KANSAS – Like Iowa State I’m not sure what to write here.  I think just to keep his team interested Sherm goes to a more 50/50 mix and Coach D dials up some fresh blitzes.  This one could be a blood bath similar to last year’s game in Lawrence.  This should honestly be the easiest game on our schedule even though the boys will be tired.  Sure, it could be a trap/let down game but I just don’t see Kansas being any better than last year and being in Kyle will be a big help.  Hopefully many of the starters can rest in the 3rd quarter for the following week’s game.  Sure, the looking ahead factor could also be there but I just don’t see it.  This just appears to be the biggest gimme which is never a given but I just don’t see it turning out badly for us.  SCORE – Aggies 37, Jayhawks 10.

 

TEXAS – Now, here’s a trap game.  Big time trap game.  You know the old cliché of when rivals meet throw out the records.  I do expect Texas to be better than last year but the atmosphere at Kyle Field should be absolutely electric that night.  Make no mistake that if the season unfolds like it should this will be the Aggies game to lose and I just don’t see it happening.  Then again, in 1995 I didn’t expect Texas to beat A&M in our last matchup of the SWC at Kyle Field.  That game stung me big time seeing that damn big white flag with the horn logo being waved at Kyle Field in victory.  I think you’ll see more of the same in this game with Sherm leaning run.  There’s just no reason not to.  Texas is loaded with talent like always and I think by the time we face them they might have an offensive identity under their new OC.  I think that actually works in our favor as Coach D and staff will have plenty of film to look at and identify tendencies.  It’s also a short week on the road so Texas will be hard pressed to install many new wrinkles with so little time.  Defensively I find it interesting they can lose Muschamp and bring a virtually unknown in Manny Diaz to improve their defense over last year.  Sure, their team fully quit after the KSU game but Muschamp is a legit Top 5 DC and you’re just going to replace him and improve?  I just don’t see it.  I certainly don’t see this as being a blowout by any stretch but I think the Aggies should control this game unless special teams and turnovers rear their ugly heads which is always possible in these games.  Still, I think A&M is the better team at this point and should win.  Score Aggies 31, Texas 17.

 

There you have it, based on my glass globe the Aggies are going 10-2 and will place second in the B12 due to the OU loss.  It won’t be all bad as OU will lose to FSU and with one loss won’t make the BCS Championship game as they get jumped by a team that played a conference championship game.  This will make the B12 look like idiots for touting how not having the conference championship game is an easier path to the BCS game but you’ll have FSU with one loss winning the ACC, Arkansas winning the SEC with one loss, Wisconsin with one loss winning the B10, and Oregon with one loss winning the P12.  All four of those teams will have one more win than OU and will trump them for this BCS Championship game while OU and Dan Beebe scream, “Look at us!” but to no avail.  Stoops gets mad and OU goes West to the new P16.  Sure, it’s a dream but if we’re not going to win the BCS Championship game (and we’re not there yet) I want to see the B12 embarrassed for their incredible short sightedness in building a stable/competitive conference.

It won’t be all bad as OU will be forced to go to the Fiesta Bowl to play TCU or Boise while the Aggies head to the Sugar Bowl and beat the Georgia Bulldogs.  Arkansas will beat Wisconsin in the BCS Championship game and the SEC West will be reinforced as the toughest division in all the land which is where exactly the Aggies are heading.  As Ric Flair used to say, “To be the man you have to beat the man!”  Woooooooooooooooooooooo!  A dude can dream can’t he?

Gig ‘Em!

BTHO SMU!!!!!!!!